Voci dalla Street – NO G7 Salute – Ancona 12/10/24 : Intervento Carro “NORD” + Gallery
 

"Siamo qui oggi ad Ancona a battere il tempo contro il G7 Salute, per suonare tutta un'altra musica rispetto a quella che vorrebbe
https://smashrepressioner.noblogs.org/2024/10/voci-dalla-street-no-g7-salute-ancona-12-10-24-intervento-carro-nord-gallery/
#General #Smash #ancona #ClimateChange #ClimateSystem #DonBosco #NoG7 #NoTav #Salute #SmashRepression #StreetParade #struggle #Territori

What is #arcticamplification❓
How could it impact the #global #climatesystem❓

Not sure about the answers?💭

👉Then this is your reminder to check out our #article about arctic amplification💡

Click to read 👇
https://polarres.eu/polarresnews/arctic_amplification/

#H2020

I thought that the collision of these two #Climate related stories in my news feed was interesting:

Story 1: https://thebristolcable.org/2023/08/urban-growing-laying-ground-for-food-revolution-can-it-become-reality/

Story 2: https://www.bristol247.com/news-and-features/news/solar-farm-approved-on-outskirts-of-bristol/

Both are great news. Story 1 examines the potential for #local #food growth in and around #Bristol.
This is something that I'm passionate about - you could take the #ClimateChange stance, or the local #resiliency stance, or the supporting people to re-engage with the #Earth stance. It also aligns nicely with #Schumacher's 'Small Is Beautiful' philosophy.

Story 2 is about a new #Solar farm being approved on the outskirts of Bristol.

Again - big YES. Give me that free energy that's been falling on our heads since the dawn of recorded time!

What interested me is the collision in between land uses.

In story 1, we hear that #Bristol has the potential to oversupply the #fruit and #vegetable needs of its population if "all of its green space was used for urban growing". This includes currently unused tracts of land beside the motorway, not just urban snippets and disused corners.

Story 2 naturally needs space. Solar farms need to go on the land.

So is there a tension between the needs for human power (food) and the need for technological power (solar = energy = phone chargers, heart monitors, oxygen pumps etc)?

Is there a balance between the two, and what choices need to be made?

This might not be "A Thing", but it sparked my interest & I'd love to hear from folks in the know!

#ClimateChange #ClimateSystem #Agriculture #SolarPower #RenewableEnergy #Farming #UrbanFarms #AgroEcology #LocalProduction

In der Klimawissenschaft ist ein Kipppunkt definiert als "eine kritische Schwelle, jenseits derer sich ein System neu organisiert, oft abrupt und/oder irreversibel" (Lenton et al., 2008). Hier sind 10 #Kipppunkte, die für uns zunehmend an Bedeutung gewonnen haben.

"Einige der im #IPCC-Bericht erörterten abrupten Klimaänderungen und Kipppunkte könnten schwerwiegende lokale Klimareaktionen nach sich ziehen, wie extreme Temperaturen, Dürren, Waldbrände, Verlust der Eisschilde und Zusammenbruch der thermohalinen Zirkulation.

Es gibt Hinweise auf abrupte Veränderungen in der Erdgeschichte, und einige dieser Ereignisse wurden als Kipppunkte interpretiert (Dakos et al., 2008). Einige davon sind mit bedeutenden Veränderungen des globalen Klimas verbunden, wie z. B. die Interglaziale im Quartär (vor 2,5 Millionen Jahren) und die rasche Erwärmung während des thermischen Maximums im Paläozän und Eozän (vor etwa 55,5 Millionen Jahren; Bowen et al., 2015; Hollis et al., 2019).

Solche Ereignisse veränderten das planetare Klima für zehn- bis hunderttausende von Jahren, aber mit einer Geschwindigkeit, die tatsächlich viel langsamer ist als der projizierte anthropogene Klimawandel in diesem Jahrhundert, selbst wenn es keine Kipppunkte gibt" (IPCC, 2021).

#climatescience #tippingpoints #tippingpoint #scientistrebellion #scientistrebelliongermany #climatechange #climatecrisis #forestfires #icesheet #elnino #monsoon #coralreef #permafrost #amazonforest #atlantic #arctic #antarctica #climatesystem.

Would you board an aircraft with a 1% chance of crashing (equivalent to a thousand plane crashes a day)?

What about 10% chance of crashing?

Well...
"There is a 10% chance, according to #ClimateModels, that we are on course for a total collapse of #Earth's #climate (the #atmosphere - #ocean #ClimateSystem) - 6°C of #GlobalWarming above #PreIndustrial (pre-1750) levels [1]. Which is what 700 ppm atmospheric #CO2 would bring. "

READ THIS...

https://kolektiva.social/@ariadne/110201769311498091

“Climate change is now reaching the end-game, where very soon humanity must choose between taking unprecedented action, or accepting that it has been left too late and bear the consequences. Therefore, it is all the more important to listen to non-mainstream voices who do understand the issues and are less hesitant to cry wolf. Unfortunately for us, the wolf may already be in the house.”
- Hans-Joachim Schnellhuber, founding director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research [1]

There is a 10% chance, according to #ClimateModels, that we are on course for a total collapse of #Earth's #climate (the #atmosphere - #ocean #ClimateSystem) - 6°C of #GlobalWarming above #PreIndustrial (pre-1750) levels [1]. Which is what 700 ppm atmospheric #CO2 would bring. We are projected to reach 700 ppm CO2 in 2075 (and 950 ppm by 2100) [2]. This would mean not only #EconomicCollapse and complete breakdown of #human #society, but a 6th #MassExtinction of nearly all #species. And very likely near extinction of humans. Would you board an aircraft that you knew had a 10% #probability of crashing? Well, the #IPCC and most mainstream scientists apparently would. 38% of the denizens of #Mastodon who responded to a poll I did the other day would at least consider boarding an aircraft with a 1% chance of crashing. If 1% of aircraft flights ended in a crash, that would mean over 1,000 crashes per day. At 10% probability of a crash it would be 10,000 per day. Unthinkable, right? Apparently not. Not when it comes to playing with the earth's #climate. There's still a 90% chance of this not happening, after all, the IPCC reasons. So it is not “very likely”, not even “likely”. This represents ignorance of #risk and #RiskAnalysis, ignorance of the way #probability and #statistics works in #ComplexSystems, ignorance of #FatTail probability distributions, ignorance of the fact that all #NaturalSystems are complex systems, which by their nature are subject to #TippingPoints – and a bizarre belief that the #NormalDistribution (the so-called #BellCurve) applies to natural systems, which it decidedly does not. Allow me to elaborate.

A couple of days ago, I ran a #ClimateCrisis #poll masquerading as a poll asking if you would board an aircraft which you knew had a 1% chance of crashing. The hints that this poll was allegorical were the #Climate hashtags and the link to the straightforward climate poll I ran in parallel with it.) As to the latter, which asked “Can we ignore unlikely but high risk #GlobalWarming scenarios?”, 80% of respondents to both the German and English versions said “Absolutely Not! We risk annihilation of #Earth!” Only 7% picked “the #IPCC ignores these [scenarios]. Me too.” This closely mirrors a statistically valid poll of 14,000 adult German citizens published in August 2021 in which 74% of people responded that humanity is about to face an #ecological #catastrophe [3]. But surprisingly (shockingly?) 20% of respondents to the “aircraft crash” poll said they would board the aircraft even if they knew there was a 1% chance of it crashing, and 18% said they weren't sure and “would have to think about it” (94 people responded to the “aircraft” poll, 45 to the “climate” poll). Which means 38% of people would at least consider boarding such a plane. Very bad idea.

Now #Mastodon polls are in no way statistically valid (but then neither are many commercial polls that get touted by news organizations). Nonetheless, the results are very illuminating when it comes to how the IPCC, #governments, #business, and indeed the #ScientificCommunity are dealing, or rather not dealing, with the fact that there is not a 1% probability but a 10% chance that #humans have put our planet on a trajectory in which #humans and most #species may well become #extinct sometime in the 22nd Century. And #SocietalCollapse will likely happen later in our present century. The level of ignorance of #probability and #statistics in #NaturalSystems, specifically the #ocean - #atmosphere system – demonstrated by the IPCC and many mainstream scientists shockingly parallels the ignorance of these same subjects by 38% of the respondents to the “aircraft poll”. (For one thing, there are projected to be about 40,000,000 aircraft flights in 2023 [4]. If there were a 1% chance of a crash, that would mean 400,000 crashes this year, or over 1000 crashes per day. And yet, when we look dispassionately at the #ClimateScience, we are treating the very real models of human-caused global-warming (Anthropogenic Global Warming, or #AGW) as if we've intentionally boarded an aircraft that has a 10% chance of crashing. Which would mean 10,000 aircraft crashes every day. Unthinkable, right? Surely no one would ever board an aircraft if this were the case.

In the case of Earth's climate, what would constitute a “crash”, the complete collapse of human society, nearly complete #MassExtinction of most terrestrial species, a broad band (± 20° latitude north and south of the equator) of our #oceans at hot tub temperatures, and an even broader band (± 30° N/S of the equator) which would be uninhabitable for humans, and large regions even further north and south (the #American #Southwest, the interior of #Australia, most of the #Mediterranean, #Arabia, #Spain, #Portugal, #India, #Pakistan, the south of #France, to name a few) which would be uninhabitable during the summer months? Scientists agree that 6°C of global warming above #PreIndustrial (before 1750 CE) would certainly do it; quite possibly less than that, due to positive #FeedbackLoops, but let's be conservative, like most scientists, and go with 6°C. What are the chances of that? Well, the chance of 6°C of warming within the next 100 years is 10%!

Here is an excellent graphic (see attached screenshot) from the economists Gernot Wagner's and Martin Weitzman's 2015 book “Climate shock: the economic consequences of a hotter planet” [5] (well worth a read, by the way). That doesn't quite look like a Normal distribution, does it? A pretty wonky looking “bell curve”. That's because the statistics that underlie the curve are not Normally distributed. It is not a bell curve. A Normal distribution is based upon the statistical concept known as the Central Limit Theorem #CentralLimitTheorem, and the Law of [Statistical] Universality which arises from it. And that law works great – when it is applied to data whose variables do not interact with each other or with other systems, when there are no higher order interactions of variables, when there are no #FeedbackLoops, etc. If you're looking at a distribution of the heights or weights of 1000 randomly selected #penguins, or people, the data will be Normally distributed, it will follow a “bell curve”, because the Central Limit Theorem tells us it will be so, and the Law of Universality must apply. But none of this is true for natural systems, whether a #biome, an #ecosystem, or the ocean-atmosphere system that is (primarily) responsible for Earth's climate. There is another kind of statistical universality, indeed a statistical law of universality, that applies to all complex systems, and thus all natural systems, called Tracy-Widom Universality (first elaborated in 1992 by the mathematicians Craig Tracy and Harold Widom) [6]. The statistical distributions that arise from Tracy-Widom Universality are not symmetrical “bell curves” but skewed distributions with “fat tails”. Exactly that of the statistical likelihood of reaching or exceeding 6°C of global warming as shown in Wagner's and Weitzman's figure.

Are we totally screwed? Or rather, have we totally screwed ourselves and the planet? As of now, it certainly looks that way. And perhaps we are collectively okay with this. There is after all a 90% chance we won't reach or exceed 6°C of warming. But even the mainstream climate science community acknowledges we are headed for 3°C - 4°C of global warming, and headed there very soon, which will probably be more than enough to set off the collapse of the climate, of the atmospheric and ocean circulation system. And a single species, in about 300 years time, will have managed to destroy the bluest and greenest and most living of planets, 4.5 billion years in the making. It is simply not right.

[1] https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/whatliesbeneath

[2] https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/06/data-from-earths-past-holds-a-warning-for-our-future-under-climate-change/

[3] https://www.fom.de/2021/august/deutschlandweite-fom-umfrage-zur-klimakrise.html

[4] https://www.statista.com/statistics/564769/airline-industry-number-of-flights/

[5] https://archive.org/details/climateshockecon0000wagn/page/53/mode/1up?view=theater

[6] https://www.quantamagazine.org/beyond-the-bell-curve-a-new-universal-law-20141015/

#Klimakrise #Klimawandel #Klima #Erderwärmung #Erderhitzung #Atmosphäre #Ozean #Klimamodell