omg mein guter Freund zombiecalypse hat mal wieder abgeliefert: "Wieso gehen Pläne schief, erster Grund: Optimismus".

#ttrpg #pnpde #dnd #dice #statistics #success #failure #probability #maths #mathe

@androcat
It applies to all branches of science. For example statistics: there's no such thing as "letting the data speak for themselves"; they're always interpreted against a background of assumptions and prior knowledge.

#statistics #probability

I spent two weeks trying to numerically demonstrate convergence of the generalized central limit theorem for the critical case where the variance just becomes infinite. I failed! I suspect my choice of norm was a poor one.

Modeling the sum of 10^30 random variables is challenging.

#probability #statistics

https://www.skewray.com/articles/the-generalized-central-limit-theorem-for-a2-pareto-and-student-s-t

The Generalized Central Limit Theorem for α=2: Pareto and Student's-t | Skewray Research

What happens when the central limit theorem convergence at the exact parameter where the variance becomes infinite? Poor choice of norm!

Foundations of Chebyshev and Chernoff bounds

#Probability #MarkovInequality #DataScience #Statistics #MachineLearning #Math

💁🏻‍♀️ ICYMI: 🎲🌀 How do mathematicians find patterns in unpredictable events? This #video explains randomness through Michel Talagrand's groundbreaking work on mathematical inequalities.

Random events follow patterns called "normal distributions". After 1,000 coin flips, getting only heads is almost impossible—randomness becomes predictable within limits.

👉 Learn more: https://zurl.co/fHXT4

#tksst #math #probability #statistics #chaos #dice #coins

🎲🌀 How do mathematicians find patterns in unpredictable events? This #video explains randomness through Michel Talagrand's groundbreaking work on mathematical inequalities.

Random events follow patterns called "normal distributions". After 1,000 coin flips, getting only heads is almost impossible—randomness becomes predictable within limits.

👉 Learn more: https://thekidshouldseethis.com/post/randomness-probability-math-talagrand

#tksst #math #probability #statistics #chaos #dice #coins

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20250530
This week the #puzzle is: Can You Weave the Web? #geometry #trigonometry #probability (Link at the bottom.) A spider weaves a web within a unit square (i.e., a square with side length 1) in the following haphazard manner: First, the spider picks two points at random inside the square. In particular, it picks the points […]

https://stuff.ommadawn.dk/2025/06/03/thisweeksfiddler-20250530/

#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20250530

This week the #puzzle is: Can You Weave the Web? #geometry #trigonometry #probability (Link at the bottom.) A spider weaves a web within a unit square (i.e., a square with side length 1) in the fol…

Stuff from ommadawn.dk (Lise Andreasen)

“You could pay as little as $0.” “Save up to $2000” may be true, but probably false without the odds.

#marketing #failure #probability

“You could pay as little as $0.” “Save up to $2000” may be true, but probably false without the odds.

#marketing #failure #probability

@alsutton Everytime I go down that rabbit hole, I take a step back and add some context about the #MagicSkyDaddies, #ZombieJews, and other #ImaginaryFriends BILLIONS of people #Whisper their #SelfishWhispers to to bend the laws of #Physics, #Chemistry, #Biology, and #Probability to grant their #SelfishDesires and #beLIEve and will pay 10% of their earnings to. Here is some context: