#SevereWeather #TropicalDiscussion #Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS NHC Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
For the North Atlantic: Caribbean Sea & the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located a couple hundred miles to the NE of the SE Bahamas.
1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers & thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, & a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or weekend. This system should move W to WNW at about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic & approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on FRI.
Formation chance thru 48 hours: low, 10%.
Formation chance thru 7 days: medium, 60%.
2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the SE of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development over the next couple of days as the system moves westward at around 15 mph. Towards the end of this week, this system could encounter a less favorable environment, limiting its development chances after that time.
* Formation chance thru 48 hours: low, 30%.
* Formation chance thru 7 days: low, 30%.
Forecaster Papin