SENEDD: Paul Davies bids to become next Llywydd – as Welsh Conservatives reflect on Sam Kurtz losing his seat

Veteran Welsh Conservative MS Paul Davies has formally launched a bid to become the next Llywydd of the Senedd – putting himself forward to chair the seventh Welsh Parliament after one of the most dramatic election results in devolved history.

Davies, who was re-elected for Ceredigion Penfro last week, confirmed his intention to run in a statement issued on Sunday – saying he had been urged to stand by colleagues and believed he had the experience to take on one of the most senior roles in Welsh politics.

The Llywydd – the Welsh equivalent of the Speaker – chairs debates in the Senedd chamber, maintains order during proceedings and ensures parliamentary rules are followed. The role is elected by Members of the Senedd in a secret ballot at the start of each new term.

It is one of the very first decisions the new 96-seat Senedd will make when it sits for the first time in the coming weeks.

“There has been much speculation since the election about who will take on the role of the next Llywydd in the Senedd,” Davies said. “I want to make it clear that, after consultation with colleagues and having been urged to do so by others, I will be putting my name forward to be the next Presiding Officer.”

The former Welsh Conservative leader said he believed his record in the Senedd qualified him for the role.

“I have the experience to champion the Welsh Parliament and have a clear understanding of its Standing Orders and procedures,” he said. “As the Temporary Presiding Officer in the previous Senedd, and as a former Committee Chair and Business Manager in the Welsh Parliament, I have the necessary skills to take on this important role.”

Davies has been a Member of the Senedd since 2007. He served as leader of the Welsh Conservatives from 2018 to 2021 – briefly succeeding Andrew RT Davies in the role before stepping down following an issue over compliance with Covid-19 regulations. Andrew RT Davies later returned as leader.

Paul Davies was elected in Ceredigion Penfro last week as the Welsh Conservatives’ lead candidate in the constituency – one of seven Welsh Tory MSs returned to the new Senedd.

His bid comes alongside reported interest in the Llywydd role from Welsh Labour’s Huw Irranca-Davies, the Deputy First Minister, who was re-elected for Afan Ogwr Rhondda.

A vote on the new Llywydd is expected to take place before the Senedd can move to elect a new First Minister – a process that will see Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth widely expected to be installed in the role at the head of a minority government.

Davies’ announcement comes against the backdrop of disappointment in west Wales Conservative circles after his colleague Sam Kurtz was not returned to the Senedd.

Kurtz – the former Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MS – had been placed second on the Welsh Conservative list in Ceredigion Penfro behind Davies. That ranking ultimately cost Kurtz his seat, with the Conservatives taking only one of the six available in the constituency.

The decision to place Kurtz second was reportedly controversial within the local party, with supporters in Pembrokeshire arguing he had built a stronger personal following in the county and had been one of the Welsh Conservatives’ most visible campaigners in west Wales.

The situation echoes that of Welsh Labour’s Rob Stewart in neighbouring Gwyr Abertawe. The Swansea Council leader was placed second on the Welsh Labour list behind veteran MS Mike Hedges – and similarly missed out on a Senedd seat as Welsh Labour’s vote collapsed in the city.

The new D’Hondt voting system used for the first time at last week’s election means second-placed candidates are heavily reliant on their party’s overall vote share – and have struggled to be elected where that vote share has dropped sharply.

Calls have been made within Welsh Labour for Hedges to resign mid-term to allow Stewart to take his seat – a suggestion publicly rejected by Stewart himself, who said the democratic vote must be respected and has given Hedges his “full support.”

There is no indication that any similar suggestion has been made regarding Paul Davies and Sam Kurtz in Ceredigion Penfro.

Davies said he was saddened that Kurtz had not been returned to the Senedd, describing him as a hard-working colleague who had given strong service to Pembrokeshire and west Wales.

According to reporting in The Pembrokeshire Herald, Kurtz was tight-lipped about his political future when asked at the count declaration, even suggesting he might return to journalism, his pre-political career.

His loss is being viewed as one of the most significant individual Conservative casualties of the new electoral system – particularly given his profile on rural affairs, farming and tourism.

The Welsh Conservatives ended the 2026 Senedd election with seven seats – significantly down on the 16 they held in the previous Senedd. The party’s leader Darren Millar was re-elected in Clwyd, current leader Andrew RT Davies held his seat in Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, and Paul Davies returned via Ceredigion Penfro.

Other Welsh Tory MSs returned included Janet Finch-Saunders in Bangor Conwy Mon, Peter Fox in Sir Fynwy Torfaen, Natasha Asghar in Casnewydd Islwyn and Sam Rowlands in Fflint Wrecsam.

Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party in the new Senedd with 43 seats, six short of the 49 needed for an overall majority. Reform UK secured a historic 34 seats, Welsh Labour was reduced to nine, the Wales Green Party took two and the Welsh Liberal Democrats secured a single seat – that of leader Jane Dodds in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd.

The new Senedd is expected to sit for the first time in the coming weeks, with the election of a new Llywydd among the first orders of business.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

Mike Hedges should quit Senedd seat for Rob Stewart, senior Welsh Labour figure says
The anonymous intervention that branded Welsh Labour ‘functionally broken’ and called for two MSs to make way for new talent.

‘Respect the democratic vote’: Rob Stewart backs Mike Hedges
Swansea Council leader’s public statement of support after he was named as the potential beneficiary of any mid-term resignation.

Rhun ap Iorwerth to lead Plaid minority government
What happens next as Plaid prepares to take power.

First Minister Eluned Morgan loses seat and resigns as Welsh Labour leader
The historic moment Wales’ First Minister became the first leader of any UK government to lose her seat while in office.

Plaid Cymru largest party, Reform UK historic breakthrough — the new political map of Wales
Full results and analysis from the night that changed Welsh politics.

SENEDD ELECTION 2026: Plaid Cymru largest party, Reform UK historic breakthrough, Welsh Labour reduced to nine seats — the new political map of Wales

Wales has woken up to a new political landscape this evening – one in which Plaid Cymru has emerged as the largest party in the Senedd, Reform UK has secured a historic breakthrough, and Welsh Labour has been reduced to nine seats after more than a quarter of a century in power.

The Senedd Election 2026 – the first to be held under the new D’Hondt voting system and with an expanded 96-seat parliament – has reshaped Welsh politics in ways that almost nobody predicted even a year ago.

The final picture, with all 16 constituencies declared, sees Plaid Cymru take 43 seats, Reform UK 34, Welsh Labour 9, the Welsh Conservatives 7, the Greens 2 and the Welsh Liberal Democrats 1.

The most striking individual story of the day was the defeat of First Minister Eluned Morgan in her Ceredigion Penfro constituency – a result that immediately triggered her resignation as Welsh Labour leader.

Morgan became the first ever serving Welsh First Minister to lose her seat at an election, and the first leader of any government in the United Kingdom to lose her seat while in office.

“I take responsibility for the Labour result in Wales,” she told the count from the stage at Ceredigion Penfro. “The age of two-party dominance is dead.”

Wales now faces an immediate Welsh Labour leadership contest and the prospect of a new First Minister – with Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, who held his Bangor Conwy Mon seat with ease, the most likely candidate to lead the next Welsh Government.

“It has become clear that Wales has demanded that change of leadership,” ap Iorwerth said after his re-election. “Plaid Cymru is ready to serve.”

The election produced a record turnout for a Senedd election – 51.65% across Wales, the first time the 50% benchmark has ever been broken at a Welsh parliamentary election.

That turnout had been forecast as a positive indicator for Reform UK, which had focused much of its campaign on mobilising voters who had not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.

The forecast proved correct. Reform UK topped the poll in four constituencies – Casnewydd Islwyn, Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, Sir Fynwy Torfaen and Clwyd – and won three seats in three more.

Welsh leader Dan Thomas, who became an MS himself after winning a seat in Casnewydd Islwyn, called Reform “the people’s army” of Welsh politics.

“In just five years, Reform has gone from winning 1% of the vote in the Senedd elections to being the main contender for government, smashing Labour in the process,” Thomas said.

For Plaid Cymru, the election represents a remarkable consolidation of support. The party topped the poll in 11 of the 16 constituencies and took three seats in nine of them – including a clean sweep of four seats in Gwynedd Maldwyn.

Among those returning to the Senedd for Plaid is former leader Adam Price, who was elected in Sir Gaerfyrddin from third place on his party’s list – itself a sign of how strongly Plaid performed in the constituency.

The constituency-by-constituency breakdown shows just how starkly the political map of Wales has been redrawn.

For Welsh Labour, the result is bleak. The party has been wiped out entirely in six constituencies – Sir Gaerfyrddin, Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, Ceredigion Penfro, Clwyd and Gwynedd Maldwyn – and reduced to a single seat in most others.

Welsh Labour’s nine surviving Members of the Senedd are dominated by senior figures. Cabinet members Huw Irranca-Davies (Deputy First Minister), Sarah Murphy (Deputy Minister for Mental Health and Wellbeing), Lynne Neagle and Ken Skates (Transport) all held their seats. Mike Hedges was returned in Gwyr Abertawe and Jayne Bryant in Casnewydd Islwyn.

The defeat of First Minister Eluned Morgan, however, is the headline loss – and brings to an end a century-long run of Welsh Labour electoral dominance dating back to 1922.

Welsh Labour’s collapse was particularly stark across south-west Wales. The party was wiped out entirely in Sir Gaerfyrddin and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, reduced to one seat in Gwyr Abertawe and Afan Ogwr Rhondda, and lost its First Minister in neighbouring Ceredigion Penfro.

Speaking after Mike Hedges’ re-election as the only Welsh Labour MS for Swansea, Council leader Rob Stewart – who was Labour’s number two on the Gwyr Abertawe list and was not elected – acknowledged the difficulty of the result.

“Obviously, this is not the result we worked for,” Stewart said. “Nationally, it has been a really difficult night for Welsh Labour and UK Labour.”

Stewart said the threat of Reform UK had loomed over the campaign. “Clearly the threat of Reform has been at the forefront of many voters’ minds, and we heard on the door that when people could not give us their vote this time, they didn’t want to go to Reform and have clearly opted for Plaid Cymru,” he said.

The Welsh Conservatives have ended the day with seven seats – a smaller party than at the last Senedd, but with three of their leaders past and present returned. Andrew RT Davies, the former Welsh Conservative leader, was re-elected in Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg. Current leader Darren Millar held his seat in Clwyd. And former Welsh Conservative Senedd leader Paul Davies returned to the Senedd via Ceredigion Penfro.

Conservative Senedd colleague Samuel Kurtz failed to be re-elected.

The Greens secured two seats in Wales for the first time – both in Cardiff. Anthony Slaughter, the party’s Welsh leader, took his seat in Caerdydd Penarth and called it a “historic breakthrough” for the Greens in Wales.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats secured a single seat – that of leader Jane Dodds, who held on in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. The party had hoped for a stronger result but its presence in the Senedd is preserved.

What now follows is coalition politics on a scale Wales has not seen since devolution began.

With 49 seats needed for an overall majority, Plaid Cymru is eight short of governing alone. Polling expert Sir John Curtice had projected the party would win between 41 and 46 seats – the final figure of 41 sits at the lower end of that projection.

The arithmetic of the new Senedd makes a Plaid Cymru-led coalition almost certain – but the question is who Plaid will choose to govern with.

A formal coalition with Welsh Labour would deliver a stable majority of 50 seats – though the politics of bringing the heavily defeated party of government into a new coalition would be difficult.

A confidence-and-supply arrangement with the Welsh Lib Dems and Greens would still leave Plaid three seats short of a majority, requiring further support from other parties.

A coalition with Reform UK would command a vast majority of 75 seats – but is politically inconceivable, with Reform’s positions on devolution and Welsh public services fundamentally at odds with Plaid’s.

The most likely outcome, observers suggest, is a Plaid-led minority government supported on a confidence-and-supply basis by smaller parties – or a formal coalition with Welsh Labour rebuilding from the wreckage of today’s result.

Either way, the next First Minister of Wales is very likely to be Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth – a fundamental shift in Welsh political leadership for the first time since devolution began in 1999.

The election also marks Wales’ political landscape becoming significantly more fragmented. The new Senedd has six different parties represented – up from four after the 2021 election – reflecting both the new electoral system and the political reorientation that has taken place.

Welsh political expert Professor Laura McAllister told BBC Wales that Eluned Morgan had been dealt an impossible hand. “The odds were stacked so hard against her, she didn’t get an ounce of help from her UK party, or the Prime Minister,” she said.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer paid tribute to Morgan in a statement issued shortly after her defeat, calling her “a formidable First Minister and tireless champion for Wales” – though earlier in the day senior Welsh Labour figures had called for him to consider his own position over the scale of the party’s Welsh defeat.

The new Senedd will sit for the first time in the coming weeks, when its 96 Members of the Senedd will be sworn in and the process of forming the next Welsh Government will formally begin.

For now, however, the picture is clear. Wales has rejected its long-time governing party, embraced a populist insurgency, and elevated a nationalist alternative to the largest party in its parliament for the first time in history.

The age of two-party dominance, as Eluned Morgan said in her resignation speech, is dead. What replaces it begins now.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

First Minister Eluned Morgan loses seat and resigns as Welsh Labour leader
The historic moment Wales’ First Minister became the first leader of any UK government to lose her seat while in office.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru take three seats each as Welsh Labour wiped out
Adam Price returns to the Senedd as Reform UK secures its first ever west Wales breakthrough.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Reform UK tops the poll as Jane Dodds holds on for the Welsh Lib Dems
Reform UK takes three seats in the upper Swansea Valley, Powys and Neath – with Welsh Labour wiped out entirely.

Gwyr Abertawe: Plaid Cymru top the poll as Mike Hedges holds for Welsh Labour
The Swansea result and Council leader Rob Stewart’s reaction to a difficult day for the city’s Welsh Labour group.

In the last few weeks, travelling through Mid #Wales I have seen:
Hundreds of signs for #PlaidCymru
About six signs for #WelshConservatives
One sign for #LiberalDemocrats
Zero signs for any other party

#ukpol #Senedd #elections

Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake in Wales

The YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University shows Plaid climbing to 37% of the vote — fourteen points clear of Reform UK — in a result that would trigger the biggest political shake‑up since devolution began in 1999.

Reform drops to 23%, the Greens leap to a record 13%, and Labour slumps to just 10%, its lowest Senedd rating ever recorded. The Conservatives also sit at 10%, leaving Wales’ two traditional governing parties tied for fourth place.

Under Wales’ new 96‑member Senedd, the figures would translate to Plaid winning 45 seats, just four short of an outright majority. Reform would take 23, the Greens 11, Labour eight and the Conservatives six.

Labour collapse deepens as Greens surge

The poll confirms a dramatic realignment in Welsh politics. Labour, which has dominated every Welsh election since 1922, now risks losing power for the first time in the history of devolution.

The Greens, meanwhile, record their strongest ever Welsh performance, overtaking Labour and the Conservatives for the first time.

Reform UK, which had been neck‑and‑neck with Plaid throughout 2025, sees its support fall sharply.

Senedd voting intention (YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales)

Fieldwork: 5–12 January 2026 • Wales • % of vote

Source: YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, January 2026.

Young voters break decisively with Labour as Greens and Plaid dominate

The raw YouGov data reveals a dramatic generational divide that cuts to the heart of Wales’ political realignment. Among 16 to 24‑year‑olds, the Greens now lead the field on 43%, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 42% — a combined 85% share that leaves the traditional parties almost nowhere.

Reform UK records just 6% among young voters, while Labour slumps to 4%, its weakest demographic performance in the entire poll.

The picture among older voters is far more fragmented. In the 65+ group, Plaid Cymru leads on 29%, with Reform UK close behind on 28%. The Conservatives remain competitive at 19%, while Labour manages 13% and the Greens fall to 4%.

The figures underline the scale of Labour’s challenge. The party that once dominated every age group in Wales is now squeezed from both sides — losing younger voters to Plaid and the Greens, and older voters to Reform and the Conservatives.

They also highlight the depth of Plaid Cymru’s surge. The party is now ahead among older voters and competitive among the youngest, a rare position in Welsh politics and one that strengthens its path to becoming the largest party in May.

Senedd voting intention — Age 16–24

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Senedd voting intention — Age 25–49

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Senedd voting intention — Age 50–64

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Senedd voting intention — Age 65+

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

“A substantial shift” says leading academic

Dr Jac Larner, Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: This poll shows a stark contrast to previous polling, with a substantial 14‑point gap between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Senedd voting intention. While any single poll should come with a health warning, it continues broader trends in Welsh polling, where Plaid have enjoyed a modest boost and the Greens have surged.

He said the gains for Plaid and the Greens appear to be coming from previously undecided voters, and that Plaid is now seen by a majority of respondents as the party best placed to challenge Reform.

Parties react as campaign pressure intensifies

Plaid Cymru said the poll confirms the election is now a straight fight between them and Reform, claiming more voters are backing the party’s “positive vision for Wales”.

Welsh Labour said it was focused on “helping make people’s lives better”, while accusing Plaid of returning to its independence plans without explaining how they would be funded.

Westminster shock as Plaid overtakes Reform

The poll also shows Plaid now leading Westminster voting intention in Wales, rising to 29% and overtaking Reform on 25%. Labour collapses to 13%, with the Conservatives and Greens tied on 12%.

The shift follows Plaid’s by‑election victory in Caerphilly last autumn and rising approval for party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Wales heading for its most unpredictable election

With four months to go, the poll suggests Wales could be on the verge of a political realignment not seen in a generation. A Plaid Cymru First Minister is now a realistic prospect, with the party potentially able to govern with only Green support.

Reform UK remains a serious contender for official opposition, while Labour faces the possibility of losing power for the first time since devolution.

The poll surveyed 1,220 adults for Senedd voting intention and 1,205 adults for Westminster voting intention between 5 and 12 January.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

New polling shows Reform surge redrawing the political map in south west Wales
A look at how Reform UK’s rise has been reshaping key battlegrounds across the region.

From Westminster landslide to Senedd stalemate
How contrasting Westminster and Senedd polling paints two sharply different futures for Wales.

Plaid’s big win in Caerphilly reshapes the Senedd debate
The Caerphilly by‑election result that helped trigger Plaid’s momentum heading into 2026.

Plaid storms ahead as Labour vote collapses in Wales
Earlier polling showing the first signs of Labour’s decline and Plaid’s growing lead.

Independent Llangyfelach councillor joins Welsh Conservative Party

Cllr Tribe, who was first elected to represent his home community in 2022, said he had made the move based on the party’s values and its ambitions for political change in Wales. He will now sit as part of the Gower and Swansea Conservatives group on the council.

The announcement was made by Tom Giffard MS, Welsh Conservative Member of the Senedd for South Wales West, alongside Swansea councillor Lyndon Jones MBE.

‘A huge asset’

Welcoming the defection, Tom Giffard MS said:

“We are delighted to welcome Mark to the Welsh Conservative Party. He is a fantastic councillor for Llangyfelach and will be a huge asset to our local association and the wider party across Wales. I look forward to working with him for the people of Llangyfelach, towards our Welsh Conservative mission to Fix Wales.”

Cllr Lyndon Jones also praised the move, saying:

“I’m delighted that Mark has joined the Conservative Group on Swansea Council. Hard working local councillors can make such a difference to the communities they represent, to make sure they are the best they can be. It is also important to get the very best for residents across Swansea. I look forward to working with Mark to build a Swansea we can be proud of.”

‘An important time in Welsh politics’

Cllr Tribe said he was pleased to be joining the group.

“I am delighted to have joined the Conservative Group on Swansea Council and the Welsh Conservative Party this week,” he said.

“The Welsh Conservatives are the only party with a plan to fix Wales and I will continue to work hard locally for residents across the Llangyfelach Ward, whilst contributing to this national vision of renewal.

“This is an important time in Welsh politics, and I look forward to working with Tom, Lyndon, and the local association to make a positive difference.”

Comes after Conservative councillor defected to Reform UK in August

Cllr Tribe’s move follows another political shift on Swansea Council earlier this year. In August, Mumbles councillor Francesca O’Brien left the Welsh Conservatives to join Reform UK, becoming the party’s first councillor on the authority.

Cllr O’Brien, who was first elected in 2022, said at the time that she believed Reform UK offered the best opportunity to challenge what she described as the “Labour‑Plaid consensus” in Welsh politics. She had previously stood as the Conservative parliamentary candidate for Gower in the 2019 general election, finishing second to Labour’s Tonia Antoniazzi.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Swansea Councillor Francesca O’Brien joins Reform UK
Mumbles councillor becomes the first Reform UK representative on Swansea Council after leaving the Welsh Conservatives.

Cllr Francesca O’Brien says ‘business as usual’ after joining Reform UK
The Mumbles councillor says she will continue focusing on community priorities following her defection.

Two new councillors join Swansea Council Cabinet in reshuffle
Swansea Council appoints two new Cabinet members in a mid‑term reshuffle.

Plaid storms ahead as Labour vote collapses in Wales

A YouGov/Cardiff University survey of 2,500 adults across Wales shows Plaid on course to become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since devolution began in 1999. Reform UK trails narrowly on 30%, while Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 10% each. The Greens rise to 9% and the Liberal Democrats to 6%.

Under the new proportional voting system debuting in May 2026, Plaid would secure 39 seats, Reform 34, Labour 10, Conservatives six, Greens four and the Lib Dems three.

Labour dominance shattered by poll shock

Labour has led every Welsh Government since 1999, but the latest figures show the party reduced to historic lows. Once the dominant force in the Welsh‑identifying progressive bloc, Labour now retains only a fraction of its former support.

Cardiff University’s analysis makes clear this isn’t voters abandoning progressive politics altogether — it’s consolidation. Plaid has absorbed the bulk of Welsh‑identifying support, while Reform has swallowed Conservative backing among British‑identifying voters.

Generational divide drives realignment

The raw data reveals a stark split by age. Plaid dominates among younger voters, winning 37% of 18–24s and 31% of 25–34s. Reform surges among older voters, taking 31% of those aged 55–64 and 30% of those aged 65–74. Labour barely registers across all age groups, peaking at just 10%.

Education tells a similar story. Plaid is strongest among graduates, while Reform leads among those with no qualifications.

Voters say why they’re switching

Plaid supporters overwhelmingly cite “standing up for Wales” as their reason for switching, with nearly half of respondents choosing that option. A further fifth back Plaid tactically as “best placed to stop Reform UK.”

Reform voters are driven by immigration, with 42% saying it is the party’s defining issue. Nigel Farage’s leadership remains a powerful draw, with nearly one in five citing him as the only leader who understands ordinary people’s problems.

What it means for Wales

The poll does not provide constituency‑level figures, but the national trend is clear: Labour’s grip on Wales has loosened dramatically. Even in traditional strongholds, the party’s dominance can no longer be taken for granted.

If these figures hold, Welsh politics faces a generational realignment. For the first time in a century, Labour faces the prospect of opposition or junior coalition status, while Plaid Cymru is poised to lead the Senedd.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck and neck as Labour slumps to historic low
Previous polling showed Plaid and Reform tied, with Labour collapsing to unprecedented lows.

Latest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck
Analysis of how South West Wales emerged as a decisive battleground in earlier polling.

Reform UK pulls ahead as Plaid slips and Labour edges back
Coverage of Reform overtaking Plaid in a previous survey, with Labour showing slight recovery.

Reform projected to have most Senedd seats
Seat projections suggested Reform leading, but a Plaid–Labour coalition seen as the most likely outcome.

#PlaidCymru #polling #ReformUK #RhunApIorwerthMS #SeneddElection #SeneddElections2026 #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #YouGov

Latest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck as South West Wales emerges as decisive battleground

The fresh Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru puts Reform on 27% (down three points since September), Plaid Cymru on 26% (up four), Labour on 21% (down two), Conservatives on 12%, Greens on 9% and Liberal Democrats on 3%.

Seat projections show Reform and Plaid neck‑and‑neck on 30 seats each, Labour on 24, Conservatives on 9, Greens on 2 and Lib Dems on just 1. That would almost certainly see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth installed as First Minister — either through a coalition with Labour or a looser cooperation deal.

But the real drama lies in the constituency breakdown.

South West Wales on a knife‑edge

The updated projections show how finely balanced the region has become:

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Reform, Labour and Plaid split the six seats, with Reform edging ahead on three. In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid takes control with three seats, leaving Reform on two and Labour squeezed down to one. Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is even more fragmented, with Reform on three, Labour and Plaid on one each, plus single seats for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. And in Pen‑y‑bont Bro Morgannwg, Reform and Labour again take two apiece, leaving Plaid and the Conservatives with one each.

This mirrors the trend Swansea Bay News has tracked for months: Reform surging in working‑class valleys and coastal towns, Plaid consolidating its Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion heartlands, and Labour squeezed from both sides. The new numbers show Plaid clawing back ground, especially among younger voters and Welsh speakers, while Reform’s momentum has slowed.

Demographic divides deepen

The poll highlights stark splits:

• Men lean Reform (29%), while women lean Plaid (27%).
• Young voters (16–34) back Plaid (31%) and Labour (28%), leaving Reform trailing at 14%.
• Middle‑aged voters (35–54) give Reform a commanding 36%.
• Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid (41%), while non‑Welsh speakers put Reform ahead (31%).

These divides underline the cultural and generational fault lines running through South West Wales, with Reform strongest among older, non‑Welsh‑speaking voters and Plaid dominant among younger, Welsh‑speaking communities.

From landslide to stalemate

Just months ago, Reform were riding high in South West Wales, with polls showing them pulling ahead while Plaid slipped and Labour edged back. Warnings from the First Minister that a Reform or Plaid victory could plunge Wales into “chaos” reflected that momentum. Now, the picture is more complicated: Reform’s surge has stalled, Plaid has recovered, and Labour remains stuck in third place.

The result? A looming stalemate. With no party anywhere near a majority, South West Wales’ six‑seat constituencies could decide whether Wales ends up with a Reform‑dominated Senedd, a Plaid‑Labour coalition, or another fragile cooperation deal.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

From Westminster landslide to Senedd stalemate
Polling shows contrasting futures for South West Wales between Westminster and Senedd elections.

Reform still leading in South West Wales
Labour makes gains but Reform UK remains ahead in the latest Senedd polling snapshot.

Reform surge redraws political map
Reform UK’s rise reshapes the electoral landscape across South West Wales constituencies.

Reform pulls ahead as Plaid slips
Reform UK takes the lead while Plaid Cymru loses ground and Labour edges back.

First Minister warns of chaos
Mark Drakeford warns Wales could face chaos if Plaid or Reform win the Senedd election.

Plaid and Reform neck and neck
Labour slumps to a historic low as Plaid Cymru and Reform UK tie in the polls.

Two‑thirds think politicians are out for themselves
A YouGov poll finds widespread distrust, with most believing politicians act in self‑interest.

#AfanOgwrRhondda #BeaufortResearch #BrycheiniogTaweNedd #Caerfyrddin #CeredigionPenfro #GreenParty #GŵyrAbertawe #PenYBontBroMorgannwg #PlaidCymru #politics #ReformUK #SeneddElection #SeneddElections2026 #SirGaerfyrddin #WelshConservatives #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Autumn Budget 2025: Welsh parties clash over Reeves’s plans

Labour claims progress, opposition cries foul

Welsh Labour were quick to claim victory on one of their long‑standing demands: the scrapping of the two‑child benefit cap. First Minister Eluned Morgan said the change would lift support for 69,000 children in Wales, describing it as “helping to tackle the scourge of child poverty.” Labour also pointed to nearly £1bn in additional funding for the Welsh Government, which ministers say will bolster public services and allow investment in steel transition at Port Talbot, AI Growth Zones, and nuclear energy at Wylfa.

Plaid Cymru, however, accused Westminster of once again failing to deliver fair funding. Treasury spokesperson Ben Lake MP said the Budget “proves that when Westminster does the counting, Wales always loses out,” highlighting the absence of Barnett consequentials from major rail projects and warning that employer National Insurance increases would hit Welsh services hard. Plaid also criticised the First Minister’s response, claiming she had “no influence” over the UK Government’s decisions.

Conservatives, Reform and Lib Dems sharpen attacks

The Conservatives seized on the Budget’s chaotic delivery and its tax implications. UK leader Kemi Badenoch told MPs there was “no growth and no plan,” branding the episode a “circus” and accusing Reeves of breaking promises by extending the freeze on tax thresholds. Welsh Conservatives echoed the criticism, calling for a review of Wales’s fiscal framework and warning that inheritance tax changes and higher employer National Insurance would damage family farms and businesses.

Reform UK Wales went further, describing the Budget as proof that “having Labour Governments at both ends of the M4 has been a disaster.” The party said Reeves’s measures would take taxes to “post‑WW2 highs,” framing the upcoming elections as a choice between Plaid Cymru, whom they accused of backing Labour’s tax rises, and Reform as “a new hope for left behind communities.”

The Liberal Democrats also joined the chorus of criticism. Party leader Ed Davey said Reeves “has diagnosed the disease but not administered the cure,” arguing that “you can’t tax your way to growth” and calling for a new trade deal with Europe. Former pensions minister Steve Webb added that the extended tax threshold freeze would drag hundreds of thousands more pensioners into paying income tax, warning of a growing burden on older households.

Together, the reactions underline how Reeves’s Budget has become a political battleground in Wales: Labour presenting it as a progressive step for families and public services, while opposition parties line up to portray it as chaotic, unfair, and economically damaging.

For a full breakdown of the Budget measures and their impact in Wales, read our explainer here.

#autumnBudget2025 #benLakeMp #budget #edDavey #kemiBadenoch #plaidCymru #rachelReeves #rachelReevesBudget #rachelReevesMp #reformUk #ukBudget2025 #ukParliament #welshConservatives #welshLabour #welshLiberalDemocrats

No plans to use Castlemartin camp for asylum accommodation, says Home Office

Local concerns over defence and services

Samuel Kurtz MS wrote to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood MP seeking urgent assurances after reports suggested the west Wales military site could be used for accommodation. He also raised the issue directly with Welsh Ministers in the Senedd, who confirmed the Welsh Government has had “no contact” with Westminster regarding any such proposals.

In his letter, Mr Kurtz warned that any move to repurpose Castlemartin would have serious implications for national defence and local services:

“Castlemartin is one of the United Kingdom’s few facilities capable of hosting live firing exercises at battlegroup level. It provides vital training for our armed forces, and any restriction on its use would represent a serious loss of national defence capability at a critical time.”

He also questioned the suitability of the location for residential use, citing limited infrastructure and stretched health services.

UK Government rules out immediate plans

A Home Office spokesperson responded to the concerns with a short statement:

“There are no current plans to use the site.”

The confirmation has eased fears locally, though campaigners and representatives continue to press for clarity on future use of military and public land in Pembrokeshire.

Penally precedent still fresh in memory

Pembrokeshire has previously seen military facilities repurposed for asylum seekers. Penally Camp, near Tenby, became the centre of controversy between October 2020 and March 2021 when it housed up to 250 asylum seekers.

Swansea Bay News reported at the time that then Welsh Secretary Simon Hart MP confirmed the camp would close by March 2021, following months of protests and criticism of living conditions. Inspectors highlighted serious shortcomings, prompting the Police and Crime Commissioner to call for its immediate closure. A subsequent panel also sought answers over the costs of running the facility.

The camp was eventually handed back to the Ministry of Defence and closed in late 2022.

Related articles

• Penally asylum camp to close by 21 March, says Simon Hart MP
• Police and Crime Commissioner calls for immediate closure of Penally asylum centre
• Panel seeks answers over Penally asylum camp costs

#asylumAccommodation #asylumSeekers #castlemartin #castlemartinTrainingCamp #homeOffice #homeSecretary #illegalImmigration #immigration #pembroke #pembrokeshire #samuelKurtzMs #shabanaMahmoodMp #ukGovernment #welshConservatives

ONS figures show Wales unemployment at highest level since 2015

A sharp rise that puts thousands out of work

The ONS labour market release for September 2025 shows unemployment in Wales climbing from 4.9% in August to 5.7%, meaning around 88,000 people are now out of work.

Employment has also slipped. Just over 70% of working‑age adults in Wales are in jobs, compared with a UK average of 75%. The Welsh Government’s own overview confirms Wales has the lowest employment rate of any UK nation.

One in four adults missing from the workforce

The figures also show Wales continues to have the highest economic inactivity rate in Great Britain. Nearly one in four adults of working age — around 482,000 people — are not working and not looking for work.

The ONS bulletin cautioned that while quarterly changes may not be statistically significant, the overall trend shows Wales lagging behind the UK average in both employment and inactivity.

An economy built on public services and shops

The ONS breakdown of jobs by sector shows where the pressure is falling.

Health and social care remains Wales’ biggest employer with more than 430,000 jobs, followed by education with 220,000. Retail still accounts for around 355,000 jobs, but manufacturing has slipped to 195,000 and construction to 158,000.

Hospitality employs about 247,000, a sector that grew after the pandemic but is now vulnerable as households cut back on spending. Transport and storage jobs remain steady at around 124,000, while professional and technical services employ about 221,000 — far fewer than in regions with stronger private‑sector growth.

The figures underline Wales’ reliance on public services and consumer‑facing industries, leaving the economy exposed when budgets tighten or demand falls.

Political blame game meets expert warnings

The figures have sparked a political row.

Samuel Kurtz MS, Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Energy, said: “Unemployment is at crisis levels in Wales after 26 years of anti‑business Labour, propped up by Plaid and compounded by Rachel Reeves’ economic mismanagement. Unemployment levels didn’t even hit these heights during the pandemic.”

He called for tax cuts and business rate reductions to help high streets and encourage growth.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster Spokesperson David Chadwick MP said: “Surely the writing is on the wall now for the Chancellor’s jobs tax.

“Everyone except Rachel Reeves seems to have woken up to the fact that forcing small businesses to pay more in tax for giving people jobs would damage job opportunities. Now the proof is staring her in the face.

“The UK Labour Government must reverse their damaging National Insurance hike at the Budget, and commit to saving the small businesses that employ thousands in Wales and are at risk of collapse, if they’re to have any hope of reversing today’s concerning trend.”

Experts have also warned of wider risks. Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, told Sky News the rise in unemployment “shows the labour market is loosening faster than expected” and said households would feel the squeeze as job security weakens.

Paul Nowak, General Secretary of the TUC, told the Guardian the government must act to protect jobs and invest in skills, warning that “otherwise communities will be left behind.”

And Ruth Gregory, Deputy Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, told the Financial Times the figures “reinforce the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner rather than later.”

What it means for families and communities

For ordinary people, the statistics translate into fewer job opportunities, more competition for vacancies, and greater uncertainty heading into winter. Families may find it harder to budget, while communities could see more pressure on public services and local shops.

Economists warn that unless Wales can attract more private‑sector investment and reduce inactivity, the gap with the rest of the UK will continue to grow.

#Business #Economy #employment #OfficeForNationalStatistics #ONS #SamuelKurtzMS #unemployment #WelshConservatives #WelshGovernment