SENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat

A major new YouGov poll has sent shockwaves through Welsh politics — with projections suggesting the First Minister could lose her seat and Labour suffer heavy losses across west Wales.

The YouGov poll, using detailed constituency modelling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, points to a Senedd transformed — with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party and Reform UK surging into second place.

Wales-wide picture: Plaid on top as Senedd expands

Across Wales, the poll suggests a dramatic shift in power as the Senedd prepares to expand from 60 to 96 members under a new electoral system.

Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 seats, making it the largest party but still short of an overall majority.

Reform UK is forecast to take 30 seats — a huge leap for a party that has never fought a Senedd election before.

Labour is projected to fall to just 12 seats, with the Greens on 10, while the Conservatives collapse to a single MS and the Liberal Democrats fail to win any representation.

The key number is 49 — the threshold needed for a majority in the new Senedd.

Under these projections, Plaid Cymru and the Greens together would hold 53 seats, enough to form a government without Labour.

Analysts say the results point to a fragmented but firmly left-leaning Senedd — with Plaid in the strongest position to lead the next government.

Gŵyr Abertawe: big names miss out

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Labour would return incumbent MS Mike Hedges, who tops the party’s list.

But there would be no seat for Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, who sits second — despite his high-profile role in recent national debates.

Reform UK would secure two seats, meaning former Conservative-turned-Reform councillor Francesca O’Brien would be elected alongside Steven Rodaway.

Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, while West Cross councillor Chris Evans would take a seat for the Greens.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid dominance, Labour wiped out

In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid Cymru is projected to dominate with four seats — returning Cefin Campbell, former Assembly Member Nerys Evans, ex-party leader Adam Price and Mari Arthur.

Reform would take the remaining two seats, with Gareth Beer — who came close to winning Llanelli at the last general election — joined by Carmelo Colasanto.

Labour is not projected to win a single seat in the constituency.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: four-way split

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, the result is finely balanced across four parties.

Plaid would return Sioned Williams and Rebeca Phillips, while Reform would elect James Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh.

Labour would hold onto one seat through Mahaboob Basha BEM — as previously reported when he topped Labour’s list for the area — while Neath Port Talbot councillor Nathan Goldup John would take a seat for the Greens.

The result would see Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds miss out on a seat in the constituency.

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Labour heartland shaken

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Plaid is projected to take three seats, with Sera Evans, Alun Geraint Cox and Elyn Stephens all elected.

Reform would secure two seats through Benjamin McKenna and Sarah Cooper Lesard.

Labour would be reduced to a single representative — Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies — with current Rhondda MS Buffy Williams losing her place.

The result signals a major shift in one of Labour’s traditional strongholds.

Ceredigion Penfro: First Minister loses seat

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid would again lead with three seats, returning Elin Jones alongside Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.

Reform would take two seats through Susan Claire Archibald and Paul Marr, while Amy Nicholass would be elected for the Greens.

Crucially, Labour is not projected to win any representation here — meaning First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.

The constituency would also see senior Conservatives Paul Davies and Samuel Kurtz both miss out.

Big picture: political map redrawn

Across west Wales, the projections point to a dramatic political shift — with Reform UK emerging as a major force and traditional parties losing ground.

Despite the upheaval, Plaid Cymru remains the dominant party across every constituency in the region.

For voters, the implications are significant — from who represents their communities to how decisions are made on key issues like healthcare, transport and the cost of living.

With the election approaching, these results suggest one thing above all else — the political landscape in west Wales is changing fast.

And for some of Wales’ biggest political names, this could mark the end of the road.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake
Earlier polling pointed to major shifts now playing out across west Wales.

Latest poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck in key battleground
South west Wales is emerging as crucial to the outcome of the election.

Experts launch “fantasy football” style Senedd election platform
New tools are helping voters track candidates and outcomes ahead of polling day.

First Minister’s surprise Swansea visit draws attention
Eluned Morgan has been out on the campaign trail across Swansea communities.

"Coalition wrangling makes it likely that #PlaidCymru will form the next Welsh government, ending 100 years of Labour hegemony, while #ReformUK is set to become the biggest party and form the official opposition."

#UKPol #WelshPol

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/11/keir-starmer-warned-cabinet-devolved-governments

RE: https://mstdn.social/@Nickiquote/116227027837359874

No - #Labour need to drop the entire cabinet and the whole #BlueLabour project - and that’s just to regain any credibility as a party for the people.

#Labour are a binfire right now and will have to undergo a very long period of penance. Give up on them - I did, about 15 years ago after the Blair fiasco. It seems, they just don’t learn. Vote #SNP, #Green, #plaidcymru and #SinnFein.

CARMARTHEN: Renewed calls for £775m Aberystwyth rail link in major new transport report

A new report from the Centre Think Tank has thrown its weight behind the long-campaigned-for rail link, arguing that its social benefits would far outweigh the economic costs.

The ‘Getting Wales Back On Track’ report argues that much greater ambition is needed to connect Wales, hitting out at a lack of investment in mid and north Wales.

The report’s author, William Burrows, who holds a master’s in Economics from Swansea University, said Wales has “for too long lacked the transport links needed to grow its economy.”

The Welsh Government has previously conducted a feasibility study on the reinstatement, estimating the cost at £775m. While it found the project was not economically viable, it concluded it would be “socially viable”.

The new report agrees, stating that “the social impact would outweigh the negative economic impacts of the project.”

It argues that reinstating the line would finally link mid and south Wales together, a key piece of infrastructure that has been missing since the original line was closed in the 1960s.

Former First Minister, Lord Carwyn Jones of Penybont, backed the report’s findings in a foreword, noting that during his time in government they had championed the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth railway line.

Lord Jones criticised the historical lack of investment in the Welsh rail network, stating that Wales is the only UK nation with no power to direct Network Rail.

He said the development of the South Wales Metro could be a model for the rest of Wales.

The report also calls for the reopening of Carno Station in Powys and renewed pressure on the UK Government to deliver its long-standing commitment to electrify the North Wales mainline.

However, the proposals have also sparked a political row, with Plaid Cymru’s Transport spokesperson, Peredur Owen Griffiths MS, welcoming the report while slamming the current Welsh Government.

“Wales has been deprived of the funding we deserve for decades,” he said. “From the underfunding of our railways to the unfair Barnett formula – Wales is being ignored, and consecutive UK and Welsh Governments have not been fighting our cause.

“Over their 27 years in power in Wales, Labour have continually allowed Wales to be overlooked and undermined while refusing to stand up to their colleagues in Westminster to demand the funding we deserve – and Wales’ communities are the ones paying the price.”

Mr Griffiths added that the billions owed to Wales from the cancelled HS2 project could prove “transformational” for connecting Welsh communities.

The report’s author, William Burrows, added: “To become a reality, Wales needs fair funding. That means a proper share of HS2 consequentials and a Barnett formula that reflects Wales’s real needs.”

Pulling ahead of Deform...

#senedd #elections #cymru #wales #plaidcymru

#plaidcymru #wales

Happy St David's Day to everyone on Wales and to those of Welsh heritage everywhere.