Tories dangle Senedd budget talks with Labour – with a big tax‑cut catch

The move, announced in a letter from opposition leader Darren Millar MS, comes as Labour faces a tight Senedd arithmetic and the looming Caerphilly by‑election, but is widely seen as unlikely to lead to a deal.

Conservatives say they are “responsible opposition”

In his letter, Millar said the Conservatives could not support a “business as usual” budget that simply rose with inflation, but suggested an agreement “may be possible” if the Welsh Government considered some of their priorities.

Chief among those is the scrapping of Welsh Stamp Duty (Land Transaction Tax) for all primary residential properties. Millar argued this would help first‑time buyers onto the housing ladder, improve mobility in the market and boost the economy.

He said:

“While the Welsh Conservatives fundamentally disagree with the Welsh Labour Government on many things, we are a responsible opposition that will always strive to put the people of Wales first.”

A tax power at the heart of the row

The focus on Land Transaction Tax is significant. It is one of the few tax‑raising powers devolved to the Welsh Government, alongside income tax variation and landfill disposals. That makes it a symbolic battleground: Conservatives want to use it to cut the cost of buying homes, while Labour has historically defended it as a tool to raise revenue for public services.

By putting Stamp Duty abolition at the centre of their offer, the Conservatives are effectively using the budget talks to promote a flagship policy that Labour is highly unlikely to accept.

Political arithmetic and the Caerphilly by‑election

The Welsh Government does not hold a majority in the Senedd, meaning it must secure support from at least one other party to pass its spending plans. That task has become even more precarious following the death of Labour MS Hefin David in August, which triggered a by‑election in Caerphilly later this month.

While Labour has held the seat since the Senedd was established, both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are mounting strong challenges. If Labour were to lose, the balance of power in Cardiff Bay would tilt further away from the government, making deals with opposition parties even more essential.

Most observers believe Labour is far more likely to seek support from Plaid Cymru or the Welsh Liberal Democrats — both of whom have previously struck budget agreements — than to enter into talks with the Conservatives.

More PR than negotiation?

That context makes Millar’s letter look less like the start of genuine negotiations and more like a political manoeuvre. By offering talks on the budget, the Conservatives can present themselves as constructive while simultaneously pushing their tax‑cutting agenda into the headlines.

Whether or not the First Minister responds, the Conservatives have already succeeded in framing Stamp Duty abolition as part of the budget debate — even if the chances of Labour taking them up on the offer remain slim.

#Budget #DarrenMillarMS #ElunedMorganMS #landTransactionTax #stampDuty #taxCut #WelshConservatives #WelshGovernment #WelshLabour

Welsh Government unveils final Sustainable Farming Scheme amid calls for transparency and food security

The Welsh Government has published the final version of its long-awaited Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS), marking what the Farmers’ Union of Wales (FUW) describes as a “generational milestone” for Welsh agriculture. But while the scheme aims to reshape farm support from 2026 onwards, it has also sparked criticism from opposition parties and farming leaders over funding clarity, food production targets, and the absence of an updated economic impact assessment.

The SFS will replace the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS), which has underpinned Welsh farm incomes for decades. Structured around Universal, Optional and Collaborative layers, the new scheme is designed to reward sustainable land management, biodiversity, and climate resilience, while offering flexibility for farmers to tailor their participation.

FUW: “A milestone, but not without concerns”

FUW President Ian Rickman welcomed the publication, noting that the union had invested over 300 hours of negotiations with Welsh Government officials in the past year alone. He said the scheme reflects years of lobbying and consultation since the initial Brexit and Our Land proposals in 2018.

Among the union’s key achievements are:

  • A £238 million budget for the Universal Baseline Payment and BPS taper in 2026
  • Retention of capped and redistributive payments to support typical Welsh family farms
  • Reduction of Universal Actions from 17 to 12, with added flexibility
  • Removal of the 10% tree cover rule, which had sparked widespread protests

However, Rickman acknowledged that the scheme is “not perfect.” He flagged concerns over the 10% habitat management requirement, the ambition to plant 17,000 hectares of trees by 2030, and the shorter BPS transition, which now falls to 60% in 2026, reducing by 20% annually thereafter.

“We urge all Welsh farmers to consider the Scheme requirements and payment rates in the context of your own businesses,” Rickman said. “Whether farmers decide to enter the SFS or continue with the tapering BPS, the FUW is here to support you throughout the transition.”

Welsh Conservatives: “Still in the dark”

The Welsh Conservatives have criticised the scheme’s rollout, arguing that farmers remain “in the dark” due to the lack of an updated economic impact assessment. Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs Samuel Kurtz MS said the absence of such analysis undermines the scheme’s credibility and leaves farmers unable to assess its real-world consequences.

“There are aspects of the scheme that can be cautiously welcomed,” Kurtz said, referencing the removal of the 10% tree planting requirement. “But a scheme-wide tree planting target remains, alongside a 10% habitat target, which could reduce food production in Wales.”

Kurtz also raised concerns about future funding, noting that the Universal tier budget is only matched to BPS for 2026, with no guarantees beyond that. He called for a Senedd vote to give the scheme democratic legitimacy and urged the Welsh Government to publish its impact assessment.

Darren Millar MS: “No mention of food security”

During First Minister’s Questions, Welsh Conservative Leader Darren Millar MS accused the Welsh Government of neglecting food security in its updated SFS document.

“The term ‘food security’ doesn’t appear once,” Millar said. “Yet the word ‘environment’ is mentioned 79 times, which tells you everything you need to know about Labour’s priorities.”

Millar warned that under Labour’s plans, Welsh farmers could be forced to sacrifice an area “half the size of the Vale of Glamorgan” to tree planting, while the UK Climate Change Committee recommends a 19% cut in livestock numbers — a proposal the Conservatives reject.

“For every £1 invested in farming, £9 is returned to the Welsh economy,” Millar added. “Yet Labour is freezing the £238m farming budget with no uplift, which is a real terms cut. Labour is sacrificing Welsh livelihoods and food security.”

Andrew RT Davies: “Where is the impact assessment?”

Former Welsh Conservative Leader and South Wales Central MS Andrew RT Davies, himself a farmer, echoed calls for transparency. He pointed to the previous impact assessment, which projected the loss of 5,000 farmers, 100,000 cattle, and nearly a million sheep under earlier SFS proposals.

“We need assurances there will not be devastating consequences from this revised scheme,” Davies said. “Yet Senedd ministers won’t publish an impact assessment. This obviously leads us to ask why.”

Welsh Government: “A whole farm, whole nation approach”

In its official statement, the Welsh Government described the SFS as a “whole farm, whole nation” approach to securing the future of food production while protecting the environment. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies said the scheme reflects extensive collaboration and aims to support farmers in adapting to climate change, restoring nature, and maintaining rural heritage.

The scheme includes:

  • A Universal layer with 12 required actions, including soil health, hedgerow management, and animal welfare
  • A tree and hedgerow planting opportunity plan, replacing the 10% tree cover rule
  • A 10% habitat management requirement, with flexible options
  • A social value payment recognising farming’s wider benefits
  • A £1,000 stability payment for farms up to 100ha

Applications will open via Rural Payments Wales from March to 15 May 2026, with the scheme officially launching on 1 January 2026.

What’s next?

While the FUW and other stakeholders have welcomed the scheme’s publication, calls for greater clarity, economic modelling, and long-term funding commitments continue to dominate the political debate. Farming unions have urged members to review the scheme carefully and provide feedback as technical guidelines are finalised.

The Welsh Government has committed to ongoing consultation and refinement, but pressure is mounting for it to publish the impact assessment and address concerns around food production, budget stability, and administrative burden.

Swansea Bay News will continue to follow developments as the Sustainable Farming Scheme moves toward implementation.

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#AndrewRTDaviesMS #BasicPaymentScheme #DarrenMillarMS #FarmersUnionOfWales #Farming #farmingSubsidies #FUW #HuwIrrancaDaviesMS #IanRickman #SamuelKurtzMS #SustainableFarmingScheme #WelshConservatives #WelshGovernment

Minimum alcohol pricing in Wales shows mixed impact after five years — future of policy under review

Introduced in March 2020, just days before the pandemic, the Public Health (Minimum Price for Alcohol) (Wales) Act 2018 set a 50p minimum price per unit of alcohol. The policy aimed to reduce alcohol-related harm by targeting cheap, high-strength drinks often consumed by hazardous and harmful drinkers.

The new operation and effect report, covering the first five years of the policy, draws on independent evaluations, a Senedd consultation, and survey research by Public Health Wales. It found that while implementation has been smooth and compliance high, the wider impact on consumption and health outcomes is more complex.

Key findings from the Welsh Government report

  • Retailers have largely complied, with Trading Standards reporting just six fines across more than 3,000 inspections.
  • Cheap, high-strength products like large bottles of white cider have largely disappeared from shelves.
  • Overall alcohol consumption appears to have declined, though measuring this directly remains difficult.
  • Unintended consequences, such as cross-border shopping or substance switching, have been minimal3.
  • Some drinkers have changed habits, switching from cider to spirits or wine due to price shifts3.

However, the report also highlights concerns that low-income dependent drinkers may be sacrificing essentials like food and heating to maintain alcohol consumption3. Some support workers reported increased financial strain and use of foodbanks among this group.

Political and expert reaction

Sarah Murphy MS, Minister for Mental Health and Wellbeing, said: “The evidence suggests minimum pricing for alcohol has contributed towards its intended policy objectives. Overall, the operation and effect of minimum unit pricing has been broadly positive.”

She confirmed that the University of Sheffield’s Addictions Research Group has been commissioned to review whether the 50p threshold remains appropriate, with findings to inform a public consultation on the future of the policy.

Darren Millar MS, Welsh Conservative spokesperson, criticised the policy, saying: “It is resulting in people struggling with alcohol addiction going without food or heating to pay extra costs, and taking millions from the Welsh economy as people cross the border to shop for booze in England. It’s time to scrap this policy and focus attention on the inadequate investment in addiction services”.

In contrast, researchers from Wrexham Glyndwr University and the University of South Wales, who led the independent evaluations, recommended retaining the policy but raising the minimum price to 65p per unit to maintain its effectiveness1.

They also called for better-funded treatment services and acknowledged the disproportionate impact on low-income households, but argued this should not be a reason to abandon the policy.

What happens next?

The legislation includes a sunset clause, meaning it will expire in March 2026 unless renewed. The Welsh Government will now consider the Sheffield review and public feedback before deciding whether to continue, amend or end the policy.

A further public consultation is expected later this year, with Ministers pledging to keep the Senedd updated.

#Alcohol #Beer #DarrenMillarMS #minimumPricing #SarahMurphyMS #Spirits #WelshGovernment #Wine