Immigration a hot potato again
Immigration has shot to the top of the political agenda again with a vengence
June 2026
Riots in Belfast with houses lived in by immigrant families burned out, massive police presence with water canons being used and civil disturbance in Southampton, have filled out screens in the past few days. Fierce debate in parliament and what some might term inflammatory statements by politicians have added to a sense that there is a crisis at the centre of which is immigration.
The violent knife attack by a Sudanese man who had entered Northern Ireland via the Republic, and before that France, has inflamed tensions with mobs directing their ire at all immigrants even those who have lived here for years and are a key part of the NHS for example. Posters in Southampton said things like ‘Enough is Enough’ and ‘Illegal migration is destroying our civilisation’. They claimed solidarity with those in Belfast. There were also counter protests (see image).
As with so many things to do with immigration, there is a great deal of misinformation fuelled by social media in particular although print media is not too far behind. Elon Musk has been widely criticised for his remarks on X and the promotion of comments by Tommy Robinson and Rupert Lowe (Restore Party).
Immigration: some of the facts
To get a global perspective on the trends in migration, a recent article in the Journal of Refugee Studies has found that most “forced migration”(its preferred term) in recent years has taken place in the Global South (76%), most of that being into neighbouring countries (in Africa and Asia primarily). Turkey and Iran have been the biggest recipients. At the same time, the UNHCR say that 10% of global refugees (some 11 million) have lost funding from the Commission in the last year.
In Europe, the Chisinau conference on dealing with the immigration issue ended without a decisive result. Last year 7 Council of Europe countries declared that the ECHR had “gone too far” and “protects the wrong people.” The Secretary-General convened this meeting of European justice ministers, which issued a joint statement (not including France, Germany, Spain or Turkey, who take 60% of refugees to the continent), reaffirming their commitment to the ECHR, but allowing some movement in removing claimants and using offshore hubs. The declaration is not legally binding, so local laws override it. It is worth pointing out that only 0.7% of foreign offenders have won appeals against the UK at the Court (and a recent case at the UK Court of Appeal has shown how hard it is to use the infamous Article 3 argument).
Are the figures up or down?
Latest (2025) figures on irregular immigration to Europe showed Spain as the main host, followed by Italy and France (UK was 5th, but only 9th on a per head basis). It is worth noting, though, that the number of arrivals on the European borders is down this year (by 40%), as it is in Britain.
In Britain, the latest British Future survey of public opinion noted that 49% of respondents believed that immigration is rising, when it is falling rapidly. They also believed that asylum seekers make up 33% of immigrants (the actual figure is 9%). The latest figures on small boats (to late May) indicate that, at 8,565, they are down by 37% on 2025. Pending asylum applications in Q1 were at 93,000, 12,000 down on last year.
Down, but you would not know it from the media or from politicians.
The House of Commons Public Accounts Committee has published a very critical report on the workings of the asylum system, which it says lacks direction and is given to short-term fixes. Particular criticism was directed at the failings of the system of monitoring failed asylum seekers and the lack of a clear strategy for the move away from hotel accommodation for new claimants. One aspect of the failing system is that research has shown that, of persons held in immigration detention, only 27% had a lawyer and half were having to do their own legal representation.
The ongoing debate about indefinite leave to remain rumbles on. Plans have been mooted to make the 5-year time requirement retrospective, which would affect 2 million people, including 300,000 children. The Institute of Government has declared against such a scheme. There is also an ongoing issue about classifying children as adults (with the Home Office attempting to use AI to help decide.) The Helen Bamber Foundation claim that 755 children were classified as adults in the last year. They have also a report out, interviewing some children on the stress of the proposed new restrictions.
The Migration Observatory report that the share of asylum seekers in hotel accommodation has halved since 2023 to 21%. The North West has the highest incidence. They also report the 3 in 10asylum seekers with active claims were not receiving any government support at the end of 2025.
The Rwanda deportation plan, now abandoned, cost the UK £270 million, to remove 4 people. The Rwandan government’s claim for compensation was turned down this month by the International Court at The Hague.
Refugee Week
The Salisbury Group will have a presence in the Cheese Market in the City centre on Saturday 20th June from 09:00 till noon. Details in a later post.
AH
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