It's a month before the Welsh Senedd elections. All the parties trying to get their message out are attracting the usual flood of hate and bot activity, much of it supportive of Reform. I wonder who is funding all that this time?
In any case, it's time to increasingly ignore social media.
"Farage’s primary deception is telling intellectually lazy, culturally bereft bores that anything inconvenient or difficult to think about can be explained away simply. – ‘Net Zero LOL’.
Trying to sell reason to these people is like offering spinach to a child clutching an ice cream. ‘Uncle Nigel says it’s ok to eat as many as I like!’"
Ben Wildsmith I’m writing this in the nanoseconds between Reform UK announcing their candidates list for the Senedd election and reporters uncovering the inevitable litany of bigoted online statements, dodgy personal finances, and shady connections that will horrify/entertain from here until polling day. ‘But you haven’t even bothered to read the list!’ complains Uncle Enoch […]
SENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat
A major new YouGov poll has sent shockwaves through Welsh politics — with projections suggesting the First Minister could lose her seat and Labour suffer heavy losses across west Wales.
The YouGov poll, using detailed constituency modelling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, points to a Senedd transformed — with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party and Reform UK surging into second place.
Wales-wide picture: Plaid on top as Senedd expands
Across Wales, the poll suggests a dramatic shift in power as the Senedd prepares to expand from 60 to 96 members under a new electoral system.
Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 seats, making it the largest party but still short of an overall majority.
Reform UK is forecast to take 30 seats — a huge leap for a party that has never fought a Senedd election before.
Labour is projected to fall to just 12 seats, with the Greens on 10, while the Conservatives collapse to a single MS and the Liberal Democrats fail to win any representation.
The key number is 49 — the threshold needed for a majority in the new Senedd.
Under these projections, Plaid Cymru and the Greens together would hold 53 seats, enough to form a government without Labour.
Analysts say the results point to a fragmented but firmly left-leaning Senedd — with Plaid in the strongest position to lead the next government.
Mike Hedges is projected to retain his seatSwansea Council leader, Rob Stewart looks like missing out on a Senedd seatGŵyr Abertawe: big names miss out
In Gŵyr Abertawe, Labour would return incumbent MS Mike Hedges, who tops the party’s list.
But there would be no seat for Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, who sits second — despite his high-profile role in recent national debates.
Reform UK would secure two seats, meaning former Conservative-turned-Reform councillor Francesca O’Brien would be elected alongside Steven Rodaway.
Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, while West Cross councillor Chris Evans would take a seat for the Greens.
Adam Price looks like he’s set to remain in the Senedd, despite placing third on Plaid’s party list (Image: Plaid Cymru)Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid dominance, Labour wiped out
In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid Cymru is projected to dominate with four seats — returning Cefin Campbell, former Assembly Member Nerys Evans, ex-party leader Adam Price and Mari Arthur.
Reform would take the remaining two seats, with Gareth Beer — who came close to winning Llanelli at the last general election — joined by Carmelo Colasanto.
Labour is not projected to win a single seat in the constituency.
Welsh Lib Dem leader, Jane Dodds could be on the way out, with the party projected to not pick up a single seatBrycheiniog Tawe Nedd: four-way split
In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, the result is finely balanced across four parties.
Plaid would return Sioned Williams and Rebeca Phillips, while Reform would elect James Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh.
Labour would hold onto one seat through Mahaboob Basha BEM — as previously reported when he topped Labour’s list for the area — while Neath Port Talbot councillor Nathan Goldup John would take a seat for the Greens.
The result would see Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds miss out on a seat in the constituency.
Deputy First Minister, Huw Irranca Davies looks likely to save his seatBuffy Williams looks set to miss out howeverAfan Ogwr Rhondda: Labour heartland shaken
In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Plaid is projected to take three seats, with Sera Evans, Alun Geraint Cox and Elyn Stephens all elected.
Reform would secure two seats through Benjamin McKenna and Sarah Cooper Lesard.
Labour would be reduced to a single representative — Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies — with current Rhondda MS Buffy Williams losing her place.
The result signals a major shift in one of Labour’s traditional strongholds.
Eluned MorganSamuel KurtzPaul DaviesBig names on the way outCeredigion Penfro: First Minister loses seat
In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid would again lead with three seats, returning Elin Jones alongside Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.
Reform would take two seats through Susan Claire Archibald and Paul Marr, while Amy Nicholass would be elected for the Greens.
Crucially, Labour is not projected to win any representation here — meaning First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.
The constituency would also see senior Conservatives Paul Davies and Samuel Kurtz both miss out.
Big picture: political map redrawn
Across west Wales, the projections point to a dramatic political shift — with Reform UK emerging as a major force and traditional parties losing ground.
Despite the upheaval, Plaid Cymru remains the dominant party across every constituency in the region.
For voters, the implications are significant — from who represents their communities to how decisions are made on key issues like healthcare, transport and the cost of living.
With the election approaching, these results suggest one thing above all else — the political landscape in west Wales is changing fast.
And for some of Wales’ biggest political names, this could mark the end of the road.
Related stories from Swansea Bay News
Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake
Earlier polling pointed to major shifts now playing out across west Wales.
Latest poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck in key battleground
South west Wales is emerging as crucial to the outcome of the election.
Experts launch “fantasy football” style Senedd election platform
New tools are helping voters track candidates and outcomes ahead of polling day.
First Minister’s surprise Swansea visit draws attention
Eluned Morgan has been out on the campaign trail across Swansea communities.
Mother of god...
My prediction is that Reform will fizzle out nationally, but their prominence here in Wales will become the mainstay of their presence in news media for the next several years.
I can probably live with a Plaid government. I'm not much of a nationalist, but they've been a lot more sensible (and a lot more sensible than the Greens) recently. Not my ideal outcome, but vastly preferable to a Reform win.
"Reform has finally set out its vision for Wales – when it comes to culture and the Welsh language, their rhetoric and proposals tell a troubling story.
Just this week we saw a clip of Nigel Farage surface branding our language ‘foreign’ – mere weeks after he vowed his party would scrap Welsh language targets for a million Welsh speakers by 2050 if they came to power following the Senedd election, with further plans to abolish the Welsh Language Commissioner."
Heledd Fychan MS, Plaid Cymru’s Spokesperson for Culture, Sport and the Welsh language Reform has finally set out its vision for Wales – when it comes to culture and the Welsh language, their rhetoric and proposals tell a troubling story. Just this week we saw a clip of Nigel Farage surface branding our language ‘foreign’ […]
Neat.
Of course the only vote in favour of lying came from Reform.
This is good.
BBC News - #Greyhound racing to be banned in #Wales after #Senedd vote
‘CROSSROADS’ CRUNCH: Defiant WRU boss says ‘unavoidable disruption’ coming as Ospreys axe looms
In a high-stakes letter to the Senedd’s sport committee, Richard Collier-Keywood declared that Welsh rugby is at a “crossroads” and insisted that shrinking from four teams to three is “essential” for survival.
The move comes despite a furious backlash from Swansea Council, which recently published secret minutes suggesting the Ospreys are the team in the firing line for 2027.
Mr Collier-Keywood’s letter, sent to committee chair Delyth Jewell MS, claims there is an “overriding consensus for change” across the game.
He wrote: “Change is difficult, but essential for the long-term success and health of the game. We are taking difficult decisions but acting responsibly.”
The WRU chair admitted that “rebuilding trust is a priority,” but doubled down on the controversial strategy, stating the board is “unanimous” in its direction.
He added: “We respect the deep sense of ownership and pride that people throughout Wales feel in our game, but change is difficult and disruption is unavoidable if we are to achieve our aims.”
The defiant stance is likely to pour petrol on the flames of the ongoing legal war with Swansea Council, which has seen Leader Rob Stewart call for the immediate resignation of CEO Abi Tierney.
Cllr Stewart has accused the union of “duplicitous” actions and “misleading” the public over the Ospreys’ future.
The WRU letter also confirms that while a “Plan B” was discussed, the board remains committed to the three-club model, which they claim will allow for £20 million of investment in pathways and the women’s game.
However, critics point to the damning Senedd verdict which previously accused the union of a “dereliction of duty.”
Alun Wyn Jones and other legends have already warned that losing the Ospreys would leave a “rugby black hole” in the West.
The union’s leadership remains “confident” in its path, even as 51 clubs move to axe the WRU chairman himself in an unprecedented vote of no confidence.
With the WRU refusing to budge and the council digging in for a High Court fight, the battle for the soul of Welsh rugby has reached its most explosive point yet.
Richard Collier-Keywood’s letter in full
The defiant letter sent by the WRU Chair to the Senedd’s sport and culture committee. (Image: WRU) #Ospreys #regionalRugby #RichardCollierKeywood #RugbyCrisis #Senedd #SwanseaCouncil #WelshRugby #WRU
JanPV
Steve Woods
Editor
merely rhys
Alex
Druid 🏴