SENEDD ELECTION: Your new MS will earn £79,817 a year — and the First Minister’s salary tops £174,000

Whoever wins a seat in Thursday’s Senedd election will pick up a salary of £79,817 in their first year – a rise of more than £3,000 on the current rate, and more than £12,000 higher than it was in 2021.

The figure has been confirmed by the Independent Remuneration Board of the Senedd, which sets pay for Members independently of the Senedd itself.

The 4.5% increase for 2026/27 – worth around £3,400 – is linked to annual changes in average Welsh earnings as published by the Office for National Statistics each November.

It means Senedd Members will earn nearly £80,000 a year from the moment they take their seats after Thursday’s election.

Those who take on additional roles will earn more on top of that base salary.

The biggest earner in the new Senedd will be whoever becomes First Minister.

The First Minister receives an additional salary of £94,783 on top of the base – taking their total pay to £174,600 for the seventh Senedd term.

That’s an increase of more than £25,000 in the First Minister’s total package since 2020/21.

The Llywydd – the Presiding Officer of the Senedd – will receive an additional £51,132 on top of the base salary, bringing their total to £130,949.

Government ministers, deputy ministers, committee chairs, group leaders and others who hold additional roles will also receive top-up salaries reflecting their additional responsibilities.

One rule applies across the board – a Member who holds more than one additional office will only receive one additional salary, and it will be the highest of those roles.

Dr Elizabeth Haywood, chair of the Independent Remuneration Board, said Members played a vital role in Welsh democracy. “We provide staffing and business costs so they are able to do their job in holding the government to account, making Welsh laws, agreeing Welsh taxes and engaging with and representing their constituents,” she said.

She said the board’s decisions sought to maintain accountability and represent value for money. “Set in the context of the wider financial circumstances of Wales,” she added.

The board published its full determination on Members’ pay, staffing and business support for 2026/27 on its website at remunerationboard.wales.

Polls open across Wales at 7am on Thursday and close at 10pm, with the count and results expected on Friday.

Our Senedd election coverage

First Minister set to lose her seat as final poll predicts Labour wipeout across south-west Wales
The final YouGov MRP projection – and what it means for every constituency across south-west Wales.

Labour suffers dramatic collapse in new Wales poll – here’s what it means for your constituency
The More in Common poll that showed Labour at just 16%.

Plaid on course to make history – but here’s who’s set to represent YOU on 7 May
Seat-by-seat projections for every constituency across south-west Wales.

Two-thirds of Welsh voters don’t understand the new voting system
Everything you need to know about how the new closed-list proportional system works.

#WelshElections #Senedd2026, I’ll provide #media coverage on #Basque #radio. After #WelshLabour dominance, Wales may be entering a structural political transition: #PlaidCymru or #ReformUK are neck-and-neck.

#UKpolitics #UK #Wales

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21681376.2024.2311099

SENEDD ELECTION: First Minister set to lose her seat as final poll predicts Labour wipeout across south-west Wales

The First Minister of Wales is on course to lose her seat at Thursday’s Senedd election, according to the final major poll of the campaign – capping what would be the worst result in Welsh Labour’s century-long dominance of devolved and Westminster politics in Wales.

The YouGov MRP poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, published on Tuesday evening, projects Plaid Cymru taking four of the six seats in Ceredigion Penfro – the new constituency where Eluned Morgan is Labour’s lead candidate. Reform UK take the remaining two. Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all return zero MSs from Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion under the projection.

Across south-west Wales as a whole, the picture is similarly stark for Welsh Labour. Of the 36 Senedd seats spread across the six new constituencies covering Swansea, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion, Powys, Neath Port Talbot, the Rhondda, Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan, Labour is projected to win just four.

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Plaid Cymru is projected to take three seats, Reform UK two and Labour one. Plaid lead candidates Gwyn Williams, Safa Elhassan and John Davies would be elected, alongside Reform’s Francesca O’Brien and Steven Rodaway. Long-serving Swansea East Senedd Member Mike Hedges, who tops the Labour list, would be returned – but Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, ranked second, would not, leaving him to continue as council leader.

The picture is bleaker for Labour in Sir Gaerfyrddin. ITV Wales’ constituency analysis projects Plaid Cymru on 42% and Reform UK on 33%, with each party taking three seats. Plaid’s Cefin Campbell, Nerys Evans and former party leader Adam Price would all be elected. Labour’s Calum Higgins, who narrowly held the sixth seat in last month’s MRP, is wiped out – meaning the whole of Carmarthenshire returns no Labour Senedd Member for the first time since devolution.

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, covering Neath, Swansea East, the Swansea Valley and south Powys, the seats split four ways: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Liberal Democrat 1. Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds holds her seat – the only Lib Dem MS projected anywhere in Wales. Plaid’s Sioned Williams would also return, while Labour’s Dr Mahaboob Basha would take the single Labour seat.

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Reform UK is projected to win three seats – its strongest projected performance anywhere in south-west Wales. Plaid take two and Labour one. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies, who tops the Labour list, would survive – but sitting Labour MSs Buffy Williams (Rhondda) and David Rees (Aberavon, currently the Senedd’s Deputy Presiding Officer), would both lose their seats.

In Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, the seats split between Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1 and Conservative 1. Former Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies, who heads his party’s list, would return to the Senedd.

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid Cymru’s Elin Jones leads the list and would return to the Senedd alongside three other Plaid candidates. First Minister Eluned Morgan, Labour’s lead candidate in the constituency, is projected to lose her seat.

Nationally, the YouGov MRP puts Plaid Cymru on 33% (up four points from the previous YouGov poll), Reform UK on 29%, Labour on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

Plaid would be six seats short of the 49 needed for an overall majority in the 96-member Senedd. The arithmetic of forming a government becomes the central question after Thursday. Every viable combination to reach 49 seats requires Labour’s involvement – either in formal coalition or by abstaining on a confidence vote.

Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, who carried out the seat modelling, said the broad shape of Thursday’s result was now “fairly clear” but that small swings could still produce significantly different totals. “Plaid Cymru go into election day on 33 percent with Reform on 29,” he said. “Plaid appear to have opened a small gap in the final days but this still remains an incredibly close race.”

The poll also asked respondents what was the single biggest factor influencing their vote. “Stopping Reform” was the top answer at 14%, followed by immigration at 10% – despite immigration being a matter reserved to Westminster rather than devolved to the Senedd. The motivation to stop Reform skewed sharply towards younger voters, with 27% of 16-to-24-year-olds citing it compared to just 6% of those aged 65 and over.

Polls open across Wales at 7am on Thursday and close at 10pm. It is the first Senedd election to be held under the new closed-list proportional representation system, with each of the 16 new constituencies returning six Senedd Members.

SENEDD ELECTION: Labour suffers dramatic collapse in new Wales poll — here’s what it means for your constituency

Welsh Labour has suffered its worst polling result yet with just three days to go until Thursday’s Senedd election – with a new survey putting the party on just 16% of the vote and projecting its most humiliating result since devolution began.

The poll, by More in Common, puts Plaid Cymru ahead on 30% with Reform UK close behind on 27%. Labour trails in third on 16%, with the Conservatives on 12%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats on 4%.

The significance of the More in Common poll is that it has consistently been the most favourable for Labour of all the polling firms covering the Senedd election. Previous polls had already shown a knife-edge race between Plaid and Reform – but Labour had been holding on to the More in Common numbers as a relative comfort. That comfort has now gone.

Translated into seats under the new proportional system, the poll projects Plaid Cymru and Reform UK level on 34 seats each, with Labour on 14 – down ten from the last projection – the Conservatives on nine and the Greens on five. The new Senedd has 96 seats, meaning a majority requires 49. Under these projections, no single party or obvious coalition can reach that threshold.

One of the most striking individual findings is the projection for First Minister Eluned Morgan’s own seat in Ceredigion Penfro. Under the previous More in Common MRP, Morgan was narrowly projected to hold on as Labour’s sole representative in the constituency. With Labour now down a further five points nationally, that margin is under even greater pressure. Analysts caution that local projections carry significant uncertainty – but the direction of travel is clear.

Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said the race had tightened significantly. “With less than a week to go, the race has tightened. Plaid Cymru now leads on vote share, but in terms of seats it all looks set to come down to the sixth seat in each constituency which will likely be decided by handfuls of votes,” he said.

The poll also underlines how the new closed list system benefits the larger parties at the expense of smaller ones. Plaid and Reform are each projected to win around 35% of seats despite winning 30% and 27% of the vote respectively, while the Liberal Democrats on 4% are projected to win no seats at all nationally. Two-thirds of Welsh voters still don’t understand how the new system works, according to research published at the weekend.

The new More in Common poll has not yet published full constituency-level breakdowns. The projections below are based on the April More in Common MRP model, adjusted in light of the new national figures – particularly Labour’s further five-point fall. They should be read as indicative rather than definitive.

In Sir Gaerfyrddin – covering the whole of Carmarthenshire – Plaid Cymru are dominant, polling at around 37%. Under the April MRP, Plaid were projected to take three seats – Cefin Campbell, Nerys Evans and Adam Price – with Reform UK’s Gareth Beer and Carmelo Colasanto taking two. Labour’s Calum Higgins held the sixth seat by a narrow margin. With Labour down further nationally, that sixth seat is now under serious threat.

In Gŵyr Abertawe – covering Swansea – the April MRP projected a dead heat, with Reform UK’s Francesca O’Brien and Steven Rodaway, Plaid Cymru’s Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, and Labour’s Mike Hedges and Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart each winning two seats. Labour’s national collapse makes both of those Labour seats harder to hold under the new figures.

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd – covering Neath Port Talbot and the Brecon area – the April MRP projected the most fragmented result of any constituency in south-west Wales, with one seat each for six different parties: Reform UK’s James Evans and Iain McIntosh; Labour’s Dr Mahaboob Basha; Plaid Cymru’s Sioned Williams; the Liberal Democrats’ Jane Dodds; and Conservative Tyler John Chambers. With Labour on 16% nationally, Dr Basha’s seat is the most exposed of the six.

In Ceredigion Penfro – covering Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion – Plaid Cymru dominate on around 38%. The April MRP projected Elin Jones, Kerry Ferguson and Anna Nicholl taking three seats for Plaid, with Reform UK’s Susan Claire Archibald taking one and Conservative Paul Windsor Davies another. First Minister Eluned Morgan was projected to narrowly hold the sixth seat for Labour – but that projection is now in serious doubt given Labour’s further national decline.

In Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg – covering Bridgend – the April MRP projected a three-way tie with two seats each for Reform UK’s Sarah Cooper-Lesadd and Gareth Thomas, Plaid Cymru’s Mark Hooper and Sarah Rees, and Labour’s Sarah Murphy and Huw John David. Labour’s second seat here is under pressure under the new polling figures.

A second major poll from YouGov is expected on Tuesday – which will give a further picture of where Wales stands heading into polling day on Thursday. We will bring you the full breakdown as soon as it is published.

Our Senedd election coverage

Plaid on course to make history — but here’s who’s set to represent YOU on 7 May
Seat-by-seat projections for every constituency across south-west Wales under the new system.

Race between Plaid and Reform on a knife-edge as two major polls show Wales heading for historic result
The polling picture before the More in Common survey.

Two-thirds of Welsh voters don’t understand the new voting system
New research from Aberystwyth and Swansea universities on voter knowledge ahead of Thursday.

Reform UK targets Sir Gaerfyrddin seats with nine days to go
How the campaign has been playing out across south-west Wales.

SENEDD ELECTION: Swansea Council leader attacks Reform rival O’Brien over “pattern” of behaviour as election row erupts

Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart has launched a stinging public attack on Reform UK Senedd candidate Francesca O’Brien, accusing her of demonstrating a “pattern” of behaviour “sustained over years, written and acted upon by someone who never imagined being held to account for it.”

Stewart, who is Labour’s second-placed candidate in the Gŵyr Abertawe constituency behind current Swansea West MS Mike Hedges, made the intervention in response to a published interview with O’Brien in which she was asked about her links to far-right activist Tommy Robinson — whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon — and Shoaib Sohail, a man who has said he was dismissed by Swansea Council due to his links to Lennon.

O’Brien denied being either far-right or anti-Islam. “Prove that I’m far right, prove I’m anti-Islamic, because it’s not true,” she said. “I’ve got my own vision, my own agenda, and that is aligned with Reform.”

The intervention comes as both candidates compete in a constituency where polling puts them on very different trajectories. According to both the More in Common MRP and the YouGov MRP we have reported, O’Brien is projected to win a seat in the Senedd. Stewart’s own chances depend on whether Labour win one seat or two — the More in Common model gives Labour two seats in Gŵyr Abertawe, which would see him elected; the YouGov model gives Labour one, which would not.

In his statement Stewart drew on O’Brien’s 2014 social media posts about the TV show Benefits Street, in which she wrote that people on benefits “need putting down.” O’Brien apologised for the comments when they were first reported by The Guardian during her 2019 Conservative general election campaign, describing them as “off the cuff.”

He also cited what he described as her associations and the conduct of meetings she had chaired about a Swansea primary school, which the council publicly said contained “inaccurate and untrue” information.

Stewart said he had “thought about that a great deal” since reading media reporting on “the social media history and conduct of the Reform UK candidate now standing for Gŵyr Abertawe.” He added: “I do not propose to repeat the worst of what was posted. The record is in the public domain, and readers can look at it for themselves. I will say this. People on benefits do not need, in her words, to be ‘put down’. Homeless people are not there to be punchbags. Teachers doing their jobs in our schools are not enemies of the public.”

He described the record as “not a slip of the tongue, nor a single misjudgement, nor a bit of late-night posting” but “a pattern, sustained over years.”

Stewart went on to contrast O’Brien’s record with what he described as Swansea’s civic character, citing partnerships with organisations including The Wallich, Matthew’s House and the city’s foodbank network. “A politics that begins by deciding which human beings are disposable does not stop there,” he said. “It moves on to the language of dismissal, then blame, then division. Our grandparents and great-grandparents knew exactly where that kind of talk leads. It is the oldest cruelty in a borrowed suit.”

O’Brien responded with a direct attack on Labour’s record in Swansea. “It beggars belief that Labour have the temerity to campaign in Swansea and Gower,” she said. “The Labour-run Swansea Council, just like the Labour government in Cardiff Bay, are on borrowed time. Our communities have been systematically failed by a council obsessed with vanity projects, a Senedd obsessed with reducing speed limits, and a Labour Party in Westminster in disarray.”

“Reform will put the people of Swansea and Gower first, and the people of Wales first,” she added. “That’s why Swansea and Gower is rejecting Labour, rejecting Plaid, rejecting the Tories, and backing Reform’s common sense candidates.”

O’Brien, who represents Mumbles ward on Swansea Council, defected from the Welsh Conservatives to Reform UK last August. She is Reform UK’s first-placed candidate in Gŵyr Abertawe.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Swansea councillor Francesca O’Brien joins Reform UK
Our original report on O’Brien’s defection from the Welsh Conservatives last August.

Swansea Council leader ranked second on Labour’s Senedd candidate list for Gŵyr Abertawe
Our report on the Labour candidate list for Gŵyr Abertawe.

SENEDD ELECTION: Plaid on course to make history — who’s set to represent YOU on May 7?
Our MRP analysis of who is projected to win seats in Gŵyr Abertawe.

SENEDD ELECTION: Race between Plaid and Reform on a knife-edge
The latest YouGov and Ipsos polling and what it means for Gŵyr Abertawe.

Senedd Election 2026 — all our coverage
Full archive of our election reporting.

SENEDD ELECTION: Green candidate caught on camera removing Labour leaflet from letterbox while canvassing in Carmarthenshire

A Green Party candidate standing in the Senedd election has been caught on camera removing a Labour party leaflet from a letterbox while out canvassing in Carmarthenshire.

Doorbell camera footage shared with ITV Wales shows Rob James posting a Wales Green Party leaflet through a door in the Sir Gaerfyrddin constituency before removing a leaflet that had been posted by Labour’s candidate Martyn Palfreman just moments earlier.

James is a former Labour group leader on Carmarthenshire County Council who left the party to join the Greens in November 2025. Both he and Higgins are candidates in Sir Gaerfyrddin ahead of the Senedd election on May 7.

After being alerted to the footage, the Wales Green Party said it had spoken to James about the incident. A party spokesperson said: “We have reviewed the footage and have spoken to the candidate to make clear that removing other party leaflets isn’t acceptable. He acknowledges he should not have removed the leaflet.”

Welsh Labour described the incident as disappointing. A party spokesperson said: “Our candidates and volunteers are out every day, knocking on doors, delivering leaflets, working hard to get our message out there. It’s disappointing to see other parties resorting to unfair tactics.”

The spokesperson added: “The problem with the Greens is they’re not as cuddly as they make out. He probably didn’t even recycle it.”

Rob James has been approached for comment.

Sir Gaerfyrddin is one of the most competitive constituencies in our area ahead of May 7. Earlier this week, Swansea Bay News reported how candidates from Labour, Plaid Cymru and independent Carl Peters-Bond united across party lines to demand Senedd scrutiny of the WRU’s plans for professional rugby in west Wales.

According to the More in Common MRP we reported earlier this week, Plaid Cymru are projected to win three seats in Sir Gaerfyrddin, with Reform UK taking two and Labour one. However, the latest YouGov MRP projects Labour winning no seats in the constituency at all.

This story will be updated when Rob James responds to a request for comment.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

SENEDD ELECTION: Plaid on course to make history — who’s set to represent YOU on May 7?
Our More in Common MRP analysis with candidate-by-candidate projections for Sir Gaerfyrddin and every other constituency in our area.

Scarlets: Candidates unite across party lines to demand Senedd scrutiny of WRU’s West Wales merger plans
How Sir Gaerfyrddin candidates from Labour, Plaid and the independents found common ground on the WRU crisis.

Senedd Election 2026 — all our coverage
Full archive of Swansea Bay News reporting on the May 7 election.

LLANDEILO: Green candidate’s bypass backing sparks row with Labour MS — as locals say just build it

A bypass that has been promised, delayed, reviewed and re-promised for more than half a century has found a new use — as ammunition in a Senedd election row between a Green Party candidate and the Labour MS whose seat he is now trying to win.

The flashpoint came when Cllr Rob James, the Green Party’s lead candidate for Sir Gaerfyrddin — the constituency covering the whole of Carmarthenshire — posted on Facebook backing the long-awaited Llandeilo bypass.

The bypass has been in the pipeline since it was first raised in Parliament in 1970. Feasibility studies were underway by 1973. Construction was supposed to begin in 2019. It didn’t. A new start date of 2025 was set. That didn’t happen either. The current estimate has construction beginning in 2029, with completion targeted for 2031 — and a price tag of £88 million, up from an original budget of £50 million.

Cllr James invoked the case of Ella Kissi-Debrah — the first person in the UK whose death was officially linked to air pollution — to make his case. “Air quality isn’t an abstract issue. It has real consequences,” he wrote, arguing that HGVs thundering through Llandeilo’s narrow streets every day were creating real health risks.

Llandeilo is a designated air quality management area due to historic breaches in nitrogen dioxide levels. “Doing nothing,” Cllr James said, “isn’t a Green option.”

Lee Waters, the outgoing Labour MS for Llanelli — whose constituency has been absorbed into the new county-wide Sir Gaerfyrddin seat at this election — was unimpressed. A champion of sustainable transport who is not seeking re-election in May, his response on Facebook was brief and pointed: “Novel to have a Green candidate who favours building a by-pass on a flood plain.”

Waters then contacted media outlets to pile on further, saying: “See this Facebook comment from the lead Green candidate in Carmarthenshire, doubling down in favour of a by-pass. Needless to say, this is not Green policy.”

There is some irony in Waters taking this particular stand. As transport minister, he oversaw a review that froze most new road-building projects in Wales — but the Llandeilo bypass was one of the few schemes that survived the cull. A consultant, Arcadis, was subsequently appointed to develop the outline design. The bypass remains Welsh Government policy — a point Cllr James was quick to make.

“The Welsh Government has decided to take forward the Llandeilo bypass, so it’s Labour Party policy,” Cllr James hit back. “Obviously there are concerns about its precise routing and there’s a need to make sure that environmental factors are taken into consideration. To be fair, Plaid Cymru, which controls the county council, has taken that view for a long time. Llandeilo deserves its bypass.”

While the two traded blows online, Carl Peters-Bond, an independent candidate for Sir Gaerfyrddin, said the whole row was missing the point. “Having listened to the people of Llandeilo, they’re not interested in political spats — they just want their bypass built,” he said.

Peters-Bond, who has been campaigning in the town, said the reality on the ground was hard to ignore. “Whilst campaigning recently in Llandeilo it was not possible to hold a conversation for more than a few seconds before getting deafened by huge HGVs thundering through the narrow streets. Air pollution, noise and road safety concerns in Llandeilo are a real concern for residents.”

He added: “The bypass has been talked about at length for decades. It’s a trunk-route part of the major A483 that links South West and North Wales. The volume of heavy goods and other vehicle traffic that navigate the narrow roads have far exceeded what is safe. It’s about time the bypass was built.”

Cllr James also used the exchange to make a bold claim about the Greens’ prospects in the constituency. “The Labour vote in Carmarthenshire has collapsed and we believe the Greens are likely to poll higher than Labour. We are definitely in with a chance of winning a seat here,” he said.

The spat is not without its backstory. Cllr James was previously the leader of the opposition Labour group on Carmarthenshire County Council before being suspended by the party in January 2024 and subsequently joining the Greens.

His path out of Labour followed an incident in which he was accused of sending a text message to a Plaid Cymru councillor suggesting they could have some fun by claiming that Waters had two homes in Llanelli and didn’t live in either of them. He said the message was meant facetiously and that he had forgotten sending it. Party officials said allowing him to remain in Labour’s parliamentary candidate selection process would risk reputational damage for the party.

That history between the two makes the Facebook spat feel like rather more than an abstract policy debate — and all the while, in Llandeilo, the lorries keep coming through.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Consultant appointed to progress Llandeilo bypass scheme
The Welsh Government appointed Arcadis Consulting to develop the outline design for the long-awaited A483 bypass.

Former Carmarthenshire Labour leader defects to Green Party
How Cllr Rob James made the move from Labour group leader to Green Party Senedd candidate.

Controversial Welsh transport minister to leave post
Lee Waters steps down as transport minister and announces he will not seek re-election.

Freeze on new roads projects to be announced
The road-building review that froze most Welsh Government schemes — but not the Llandeilo bypass.

Welsh first minister calls for halt to Pembrokeshire space radar project over Trump’s “contempt for our country”

Morgan, who is also Welsh Labour leader and the party’s lead Senedd candidate in the Ceredigion Penfro constituency where the site is located, made the intervention in a Facebook video ahead of the Senedd election on 7 May.

The Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability (DARC) programme — announced jointly by the UK, US and Australia in 2023 — would see 27 radar dishes installed at Cawdor Barracks in Brawdy, with the site becoming the UK’s main contribution to the international scheme. As Swansea Bay News previously reported, the project was expected to create up to 100 long-term jobs and keep the barracks open beyond its planned closure date of 2028.

Morgan said the project should be “halted,” adding that the United States under Trump was “not the partner it once was.” She said talk of targeting civilians, undermining allies and diminishing the sacrifices of armed forces personnel was “not the conduct of a reliable ally.”

She drew a distinction between standing with partners and “giving a free pass to a US president who has threatened war crimes and shown contempt for our country,” and said the UK should pause its involvement in the radar project “until we can be confident those partnerships reflect our values and our security interests.”

Her intervention immediately drew criticism from across the political spectrum. Plaid Cymru accused Morgan of making a “last ditch attempt” to save her Senedd seat, while Reform said she was trying to distract from her record in government.

The Welsh Conservatives went further, alleging that Morgan was willing to put the UK’s national security at risk. Henry Tufnell, the Labour MP for Mid and South Pembrokeshire, also broke ranks, saying he was concerned that Morgan apparently did not want the jobs the scheme had promised for the area.

Downing Street declined to say whether the prime minister agreed with the first minister’s position. A No 10 spokesperson said the programme “will secure long-term jobs in Pembrokeshire and Wales, and help protect essential satellite communication.”

The Ministry of Defence has been progressing plans to refurbish an airfield at Cawdor Barracks to house the UK’s DARC infrastructure. The scheme has faced opposition from local campaigners, who have raised concerns about its proximity to the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park.

The campaign group PARC Against DARC, which launched in May 2024, has been at the forefront of local opposition. The group — which counts CND, Stop the War Coalition and Extinction Rebellion UK among its national supporters — has raised concerns about the visual impact of 27 large radar dishes on the Pembrokeshire coastline, potential health risks from radiofrequency signals, and damage to tourism in an area that includes the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park.

A petition against the plans gathered more than 16,000 signatures, and the campaign has drawn significant cross-party political backing — with Plaid Cymru voting unanimously at its 2024 conference to officially oppose DARC, and an Early Day Motion tabled in Westminster attracting cross-party support.

The campaign also draws a direct parallel with a successful predecessor. Pembrokeshire Against Radar Campaign — known as PARC — was formed in 1990 to oppose a proposed over-the-horizon radar installation on the Dewisland peninsula. After 2,000 people marched from St Davids Cathedral to the proposed site, the Conservative government cancelled the project in 1991. Some of the original PARC campaigners are now active in the new fight against DARC.

The group has also specifically targeted Henry Tufnell over his silence on the issue, accusing the Mid and South Pembrokeshire MP of ignoring hundreds — possibly thousands — of constituent emails on the subject. That makes his public criticism of Morgan’s position all the more striking: having said nothing while his constituents demanded answers, Tufnell chose the first minister’s intervention as the moment to speak up — in defence of the scheme.

The DARC programme is designed to detect and track objects in deep space up to 22,000 miles from Earth, operating as a global network of three ground-based radar systems run jointly by the UK, US and Australia. The unique geographic spread of the three nations was cited as key to providing continuous global coverage, including the ability to detect potential threats to defence and civilian space systems.

Morgan’s comments place her at odds not only with opposition parties but with her own Labour colleagues in Westminster, creating an unusual internal divide just weeks before the Welsh Parliament election.

The Ceredigion Penfro seat, which covers the area around Brawdy and Cawdor Barracks, is expected to be one of the more competitive constituencies on 7 May, with Plaid Cymru also fielding a strong candidate in the area.

The UK government has not indicated any intention to pause or review the DARC project. No formal response has been issued by the Ministry of Defence to Morgan’s comments.

Whether Morgan’s intervention resonates with local voters — who were promised significant economic benefits from the scheme — or is seen as a political gamble in a tight election race, remains to be seen.

What is clear is that a project announced with cross-party support as a landmark moment for Pembrokeshire’s defence economy has now become one of the most politically charged issues of the Welsh election campaign.

Labour candidate backs Metro link to Ammanford and Llanelli as debate grows over West Wales transport

Welsh Labour’s lead Senedd candidate for Sir Gaerfyrddin, Calum Higgins, says new Metro proposals linking Swansea to Ammanford, Llanelli and the wider Amman Valley could deliver long‑awaited improvements for Carmarthenshire communities.

The plans, published by Transport for Wales as part of a major long‑term investment programme, outline new stations across Swansea and upgraded rail corridors stretching west. Supporters say the project could transform travel across South West Wales, while others argue Carmarthenshire needs clearer commitments to ensure it receives its fair share.

‘A major opportunity for West Wales’

Higgins, who lives in Tycroes, said the proposals show a commitment to improving public transport beyond Swansea.

“It’s great to see Welsh Labour’s commitment to investing in public transport being extended to West Wales, including Llanelli, the Amman Valley and West Carmarthenshire,” he said.

He added that strengthening the Heart of Wales line and the Swansea–Llanelli–Carmarthen corridor should be a priority, arguing that better links to Swansea’s major employers and attractions would support the Carmarthenshire economy.

Different views on how far the Metro reaches

The latest proposals follow comments from Green Party councillor Rob James, who argued the Metro vision remains too focused on Swansea and does not go far enough for rural Carmarthenshire. He said communities west of the city needed firmer commitments and clearer timelines.

Higgins did not offer a direct response to those concerns when approached, but pointed to the benefits he believes the project could bring to the county.

Long‑running questions over transport investment

The discussion forms part of a wider debate over transport priorities in West Wales. Residents and councillors have repeatedly called for better rail and bus connections, while campaigners continue to push for progress on the long‑promised St Clears railway station.

For many communities, the issue is not the ambition of the Metro vision, but whether investment will reach far enough west — and how quickly improvements will be delivered.

‘I’ll push for delivery if elected’

Higgins said he would work to ensure Carmarthenshire sees tangible improvements if he is elected in May.

“If elected in May I’ll be pushing for this project to be delivered for the people of Carmarthenshire as soon as possible so we are even better connected and can benefit from the growth in jobs it would bring,” he said.

What happens next

Transport for Wales is expected to refine its Metro plans over the coming months, with further detail on routes, timelines and funding still to be confirmed.

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SENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat

A major new YouGov poll has sent shockwaves through Welsh politics — with projections suggesting the First Minister could lose her seat and Labour suffer heavy losses across west Wales.

The YouGov poll, using detailed constituency modelling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, points to a Senedd transformed — with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party and Reform UK surging into second place.

Wales-wide picture: Plaid on top as Senedd expands

Across Wales, the poll suggests a dramatic shift in power as the Senedd prepares to expand from 60 to 96 members under a new electoral system.

Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 seats, making it the largest party but still short of an overall majority.

Reform UK is forecast to take 30 seats — a huge leap for a party that has never fought a Senedd election before.

Labour is projected to fall to just 12 seats, with the Greens on 10, while the Conservatives collapse to a single MS and the Liberal Democrats fail to win any representation.

The key number is 49 — the threshold needed for a majority in the new Senedd.

Under these projections, Plaid Cymru and the Greens together would hold 53 seats, enough to form a government without Labour.

Analysts say the results point to a fragmented but firmly left-leaning Senedd — with Plaid in the strongest position to lead the next government.

Gŵyr Abertawe: big names miss out

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Labour would return incumbent MS Mike Hedges, who tops the party’s list.

But there would be no seat for Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, who sits second — despite his high-profile role in recent national debates.

Reform UK would secure two seats, meaning former Conservative-turned-Reform councillor Francesca O’Brien would be elected alongside Steven Rodaway.

Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, while West Cross councillor Chris Evans would take a seat for the Greens.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid dominance, Labour wiped out

In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid Cymru is projected to dominate with four seats — returning Cefin Campbell, former Assembly Member Nerys Evans, ex-party leader Adam Price and Mari Arthur.

Reform would take the remaining two seats, with Gareth Beer — who came close to winning Llanelli at the last general election — joined by Carmelo Colasanto.

Labour is not projected to win a single seat in the constituency.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: four-way split

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, the result is finely balanced across four parties.

Plaid would return Sioned Williams and Rebeca Phillips, while Reform would elect James Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh.

Labour would hold onto one seat through Mahaboob Basha BEM — as previously reported when he topped Labour’s list for the area — while Neath Port Talbot councillor Nathan Goldup John would take a seat for the Greens.

The result would see Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds miss out on a seat in the constituency.

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Labour heartland shaken

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Plaid is projected to take three seats, with Sera Evans, Alun Geraint Cox and Elyn Stephens all elected.

Reform would secure two seats through Benjamin McKenna and Sarah Cooper Lesard.

Labour would be reduced to a single representative — Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies — with current Rhondda MS Buffy Williams losing her place.

The result signals a major shift in one of Labour’s traditional strongholds.

Ceredigion Penfro: First Minister loses seat

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid would again lead with three seats, returning Elin Jones alongside Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.

Reform would take two seats through Susan Claire Archibald and Paul Marr, while Amy Nicholass would be elected for the Greens.

Crucially, Labour is not projected to win any representation here — meaning First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.

The constituency would also see senior Conservatives Paul Davies and Samuel Kurtz both miss out.

Big picture: political map redrawn

Across west Wales, the projections point to a dramatic political shift — with Reform UK emerging as a major force and traditional parties losing ground.

Despite the upheaval, Plaid Cymru remains the dominant party across every constituency in the region.

For voters, the implications are significant — from who represents their communities to how decisions are made on key issues like healthcare, transport and the cost of living.

With the election approaching, these results suggest one thing above all else — the political landscape in west Wales is changing fast.

And for some of Wales’ biggest political names, this could mark the end of the road.

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