Plaid storms ahead as Labour vote collapses in Wales

A YouGov/Cardiff University survey of 2,500 adults across Wales shows Plaid on course to become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since devolution began in 1999. Reform UK trails narrowly on 30%, while Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 10% each. The Greens rise to 9% and the Liberal Democrats to 6%.

Under the new proportional voting system debuting in May 2026, Plaid would secure 39 seats, Reform 34, Labour 10, Conservatives six, Greens four and the Lib Dems three.

Labour dominance shattered by poll shock

Labour has led every Welsh Government since 1999, but the latest figures show the party reduced to historic lows. Once the dominant force in the Welsh‑identifying progressive bloc, Labour now retains only a fraction of its former support.

Cardiff University’s analysis makes clear this isn’t voters abandoning progressive politics altogether — it’s consolidation. Plaid has absorbed the bulk of Welsh‑identifying support, while Reform has swallowed Conservative backing among British‑identifying voters.

Generational divide drives realignment

The raw data reveals a stark split by age. Plaid dominates among younger voters, winning 37% of 18–24s and 31% of 25–34s. Reform surges among older voters, taking 31% of those aged 55–64 and 30% of those aged 65–74. Labour barely registers across all age groups, peaking at just 10%.

Education tells a similar story. Plaid is strongest among graduates, while Reform leads among those with no qualifications.

Voters say why they’re switching

Plaid supporters overwhelmingly cite “standing up for Wales” as their reason for switching, with nearly half of respondents choosing that option. A further fifth back Plaid tactically as “best placed to stop Reform UK.”

Reform voters are driven by immigration, with 42% saying it is the party’s defining issue. Nigel Farage’s leadership remains a powerful draw, with nearly one in five citing him as the only leader who understands ordinary people’s problems.

What it means for Wales

The poll does not provide constituency‑level figures, but the national trend is clear: Labour’s grip on Wales has loosened dramatically. Even in traditional strongholds, the party’s dominance can no longer be taken for granted.

If these figures hold, Welsh politics faces a generational realignment. For the first time in a century, Labour faces the prospect of opposition or junior coalition status, while Plaid Cymru is poised to lead the Senedd.

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Plaid steps in to save Labour budget – £300m deal secures Senedd vote

Labour short of votes, Plaid delivers lifeline

Labour is two votes short of a Senedd majority and could not pass the budget alone. The agreement with Plaid avoids the risk of no budget being passed at all — a scenario ministers warned could have led to “catastrophic cuts” to public services.

The deal was sketched out in the days before the announcement, with Plaid pushing hard for more money for health and local government.

What the deal delivers

The final agreement secures £112.8m of additional funding for local government in 2026‑27, giving councils a 4.5% rise in their settlement, with every council receiving increases above 4%.

It also provides £180m more for health and social care, which, combined with the draft budget, amounts to a 3.6% increase next year. In addition, £120m of capital funding will be set aside for the next Welsh Government after the May 2026 Senedd election to allocate.

First Minister Eluned Morgan hailed the deal as proof of parties “working together on shared priorities to deliver for Wales,” adding that it “secured the passage of the budget and prevented potentially catastrophic cuts.”

Plaid claims credit for frontline boost

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the party’s priority was to protect jobs and keep council tax bills down. “By securing £300m of additional funding for front line services, it avoids the potential of a cliff edge for public spending in Wales,” he said, arguing the deal puts the next Welsh Government “on a firmer footing than would otherwise have been the case.”

Opposition fury

The deal sparked anger from rivals. Welsh Conservatives leader Darren Millar MS accused Labour and Plaid of another “stitch‑up,” claiming the agreement “falls short” and would mean “wasteful spending on extra politicians, overseas embassies and trees, instead of focusing resources on the priorities of the people of Wales.”

Reform UK Wales said the deal showed “a vote for Plaid next year is a vote for Labour,” while Lib Dem Jane Dodds warned that without a serious social care settlement “it will be yet another year of people stuck in hospital beds who should be at home, carers pushed to breaking point, and councils struggling to keep services afloat.”

What happens next

The agreement will be reflected in the Final Budget published on 20 January 2026, alongside other allocations made by the Welsh Government. With Plaid once again stepping in to save Labour, the deal sets the stage for a fierce election battle in May 2026, where opposition parties will seek to portray the arrangement as proof of a Labour‑Plaid axis.

#Budget #PlaidCymru #Senedd #WelshGovernment #WelshLabour

New figures reveal Wales set to lose £6bn in rail funding row

Billions lost, investment bypasses rural Wales

Wales is set to miss out on another £1.3–£1.6 billion in transport funding after the UK Labour Government confirmed Northern Powerhouse Rail will go ahead as an “England and Wales” project.

The scheme, designed to link Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds, will not include a single centimetre of track in Wales. By classifying it as “England and Wales”, the Treasury avoids triggering Barnett consequentials that would have delivered funding for Welsh rail.

It follows similar decisions on HS2, the high‑speed line between London, Birmingham and Manchester, and East‑West Rail, which links Oxford and Cambridge. Together, those projects have already cost Wales up to £4.3 billion in lost investment. Combined, campaigners say Wales could now be short by around £6 billion.

Scotland and Northern Ireland cash in

While Wales is left empty‑handed, Scotland is set to receive £2.7 billion and Northern Ireland just under £1 billion as a result of Northern Powerhouse Rail.

A Treasury spokesperson said:

“Wales will benefit from £445 million of rail investment over the next decade — the biggest ever funding boost for Welsh rail.”

Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens has also defended the classification of projects like HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail as “England and Wales” schemes, arguing that Wales benefits indirectly from improved connections across the UK rail network.

Welsh Government stresses cooperation

First Minister Eluned Morgan said:

“We will continue to press for further commitments, including electrification of the North and South Mainlines, which remain vital for Wales’s future.”

She added that the settlement would deliver “significant extra investment in rail infrastructure” and emphasised the need for cooperation between governments.

Opposition parties cry foul

Plaid Cymru Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP said:

“Wales is owed billions from HS2 and now Northern Powerhouse Rail. Labour has failed to address chronic underfunding of our railways, and our communities are paying the price.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth also accused Labour of leaving Wales “short‑changed again” and said the First Minister had “no influence” over her Westminster colleagues.

Lib Dems demand devolved powers

Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster spokesperson David Chadwick MP said:

“This Labour Government is deliberately depriving Welsh communities of billions of pounds in transport funding, whilst expecting a pat on the back for delivering crumbs.

Labour has the power to change the system and stop these funding scandals, but has made its position clear — they are happy for Wales to be left behind, paying for megaprojects in England whilst our own rail and transport infrastructure collapses.”

Mid and West Wales left behind

Local campaigners say the funding gap is most keenly felt in Mid and West Wales, where rail services remain patchy and major projects have stalled.

Carl Peters‑Bond, independent candidate for the new Caerfyrddin constituency in next year’s Senedd elections, said:

“We’re told Wales is getting investment, but Mid and West Wales see none of it. Communities from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth are crying out for rail connectivity, yet billions are being spent on lines hundreds of miles away. It’s a betrayal of rural Wales.

Both Westminster and Cardiff need to stop playing politics and start building the infrastructure our communities desperately need. People here don’t want excuses — they want action.”

West Wales line campaign highlights the gap

The row comes just days after campaigners renewed calls for funding to restore the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth rail line, axed in the 1960s.

As Swansea Bay News reported at the weekend, supporters say reopening the line would transform connectivity across West Wales, boost the economy, and cut car dependency. Campaigners argue that the billions Wales is missing out on could easily fund projects like the Carmarthen–Aberystwyth line, yet instead the money is being spent on rail schemes in England.

Creaking infrastructure, growing anger

With rail electrification stalled and public transport under strain, campaigners warn the funding gap leaves Wales at risk of falling further behind.

The row adds to growing pressure on Labour to explain why Wales is repeatedly excluded from consequential funding, while neighbouring nations benefit.

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“Constitutional outrage”: Lee Waters and Mike Hedges join Senedd Labour revolt over UK Government funding bypass

Two prominent South West Wales politicians — Llanelli MS Lee Waters and Swansea East MS Mike Hedges — have joined a growing rebellion inside Welsh Labour over UK Government funding decisions that bypass the Senedd.

In a strongly worded letter to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, signed by over a third of Labour Members of the Senedd, the group accuses Westminster of using Tory-era powers to override devolved responsibilities — calling it “deeply insensitive” and “a constitutional outrage.”

“Why is Whitehall deciding where to fix bus shelters in Wales?”

At the heart of the row is the Pride in Place programme, a UK Government initiative that funds local regeneration projects — including bins, toilets and bus shelters — directly through councils, without going through the Welsh Government.

The letter slams the use of the UK Internal Market Act 2020, originally passed by the Conservatives, to impose funding decisions in areas like regeneration that are fully devolved.

“Why is the UK Government directly funding Welsh Councils to fix bus shelters, reopen park toilets, and provide bins?” the letter asks.

“For our own Government to then come in and use the very same powers to act in devolved areas is at best deeply insensitive, at worst a constitutional outrage.”

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Local voices speak out

Lee Waters, a former Welsh Government cabinet member, and Mike Hedges, one of the longest-serving MSs in the Senedd, are among 11 signatories demanding that Wales be treated as an equal part of the UK.

The group warns that the current approach undermines the Welsh Government’s authority and risks wasting public money by duplicating existing programmes.

“If this was being done by a Tory Government, we would be calling for a judicial review,” they write.

Pressure mounts on Starmer to act

The letter calls on the Prime Minister to recommit to devolving powers over rail infrastructure, policing, justice and the Crown Estate — pledges made in opposition but not yet delivered in government.

That last demand is particularly sensitive. Welsh Labour has long backed the devolution of the Crown Estate, arguing that profits from Welsh land and seabed should benefit Wales directly. But earlier this year, UK Labour ministers rejected a Commons amendment that would have transferred control, sparking anger among Senedd members and comparisons with Scotland, where the Crown Estate is already devolved.

With Llanelli MS Lee Waters and Swansea East veteran Mike Hedges among the signatories, the row has brought the issue home to South West Wales. Both have warned that bypassing the Welsh Government on regeneration projects undermines devolution and risks wasting public money.

The pressure is now firmly on Downing Street to respond — and to show whether Labour in power will deliver the reforms it promised in opposition, or face growing unrest from its own ranks in Wales.

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First Minister Eluned Morgan tops Labour’s Senedd candidate list for Ceredigion Penfro

Under Labour’s rules, incumbent Members of the Senedd are automatically placed at the top of their constituency lists. Morgan has represented Mid and West Wales on the regional list since 2016 and became First Minister in 2024, having previously served as Health Minister and International Relations Minister.

Just two of Labour’s candidates on the Ceredigion Penfro list have direct links to the area. Marc Tierney, Morgan’s current office manager, is a county councillor for Narberth Urban and Cabinet Member for Young People, Communities and the Wellbeing of Future Generations. Joshua Phillips, a local activist, chairs Welsh Labour’s Solva & St Davids Branch, is vice chair of Solva Community Council, and is founder of the Edge Festival as well as director of Solva Gin.

Other names on the list include Margaret Greenaway, Swansea‑based President of The Open University Students’ Association; Tansaim Hussain‑Gul, a Cardiff‑born British Gas worker and trade union activist; Luke Davies‑Jones, a chartered accountant and Unite union member born in Swansea and now living in Cardiff; and Peter Huw Jenkins, a county councillor for Llandaff on Cardiff City Council.

Labour’s candidate list for Ceredigion Penfro

Eluned Morgan
First Minister of Wales and incumbent MS, automatically placed at the top of Labour’s slate.

Marc Tierney
County councillor for Narberth Urban, Cabinet Member for Young People, Communities and Wellbeing of Future Generations, and Morgan’s current office manager.

Joshua Phillips
Local activist, chair of Welsh Labour’s Solva & St Davids Branch, vice chair of Solva Community Council, founder of the Edge Festival and director of Solva Gin.

Margaret Greenaway
Swansea-based President of The Open University Students’ Association (OUSA).

Tansaim Hussain-Gul
Cardiff-born British Gas worker and trade union activist.

Luke Davies-Jones
Chartered accountant and Unite union member, born in Swansea and living in Cardiff.

Peter Huw Jenkins
County councillor for Llandaff on Cardiff City Council.

New constituency and projections

Ceredigion Penfro is one of the new multi‑member constituencies created under Senedd reforms, combining parts of Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire. Each of the new constituencies will elect six Members of the Senedd using proportional representation, replacing the old mix of constituency and regional seats.

Polling averages suggest Labour could secure around two seats in Ceredigion Penfro, with Plaid Cymru expected to perform strongly in the area and Reform UK also polling competitively. That would give Labour a foothold in a constituency where Plaid has historically dominated, but where Pembrokeshire’s Labour vote could now play a bigger role under the new boundaries.

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Autumn Budget 2025: Welsh parties clash over Reeves’s plans

Labour claims progress, opposition cries foul

Welsh Labour were quick to claim victory on one of their long‑standing demands: the scrapping of the two‑child benefit cap. First Minister Eluned Morgan said the change would lift support for 69,000 children in Wales, describing it as “helping to tackle the scourge of child poverty.” Labour also pointed to nearly £1bn in additional funding for the Welsh Government, which ministers say will bolster public services and allow investment in steel transition at Port Talbot, AI Growth Zones, and nuclear energy at Wylfa.

Plaid Cymru, however, accused Westminster of once again failing to deliver fair funding. Treasury spokesperson Ben Lake MP said the Budget “proves that when Westminster does the counting, Wales always loses out,” highlighting the absence of Barnett consequentials from major rail projects and warning that employer National Insurance increases would hit Welsh services hard. Plaid also criticised the First Minister’s response, claiming she had “no influence” over the UK Government’s decisions.

Conservatives, Reform and Lib Dems sharpen attacks

The Conservatives seized on the Budget’s chaotic delivery and its tax implications. UK leader Kemi Badenoch told MPs there was “no growth and no plan,” branding the episode a “circus” and accusing Reeves of breaking promises by extending the freeze on tax thresholds. Welsh Conservatives echoed the criticism, calling for a review of Wales’s fiscal framework and warning that inheritance tax changes and higher employer National Insurance would damage family farms and businesses.

Reform UK Wales went further, describing the Budget as proof that “having Labour Governments at both ends of the M4 has been a disaster.” The party said Reeves’s measures would take taxes to “post‑WW2 highs,” framing the upcoming elections as a choice between Plaid Cymru, whom they accused of backing Labour’s tax rises, and Reform as “a new hope for left behind communities.”

The Liberal Democrats also joined the chorus of criticism. Party leader Ed Davey said Reeves “has diagnosed the disease but not administered the cure,” arguing that “you can’t tax your way to growth” and calling for a new trade deal with Europe. Former pensions minister Steve Webb added that the extended tax threshold freeze would drag hundreds of thousands more pensioners into paying income tax, warning of a growing burden on older households.

Together, the reactions underline how Reeves’s Budget has become a political battleground in Wales: Labour presenting it as a progressive step for families and public services, while opposition parties line up to portray it as chaotic, unfair, and economically damaging.

For a full breakdown of the Budget measures and their impact in Wales, read our explainer here.

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Sarah Murphy tops Labour’s Senedd candidate list for Pen‑y‑Bont Bro Morgannwg

Latest polling suggests Labour are likely to secure two of the six seats in this constituency at the 2026 Senedd election.

Sitting Bridgend MS heads the slate

First on the list is Sarah Murphy, who has represented Bridgend in the Senedd since 2021. She previously worked as Head of Events for Welsh Labour, Research Analyst for Lee Waters AM, and Communications Manager for Anna McMorrin MP. Before her election she chaired Sustainable Wales, a Porthcawl‑based charity supporting community‑led sustainable development.

Former council leader takes second place

Second is Huw David OBE, the former leader of Bridgend County Borough Council between 2016 and 2024. He was awarded an OBE for public service and his contribution to local government in the Queen’s Birthday Honours list in 2022.

Vale deputy mayor ranked third

Third on the list is Carys Stallard, a former BBC journalist who now serves as Labour councillor for St Brides Major on the Vale of Glamorgan Council. She is currently Deputy Mayor of the Vale of Glamorgan, chairs the Glamorgan Heritage Coast Advisory Group, and sits on the Place Scrutiny and Planning Committees.

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Trade union organiser joins the slate

Fourth is Jonathan Cox, a trade unionist and community organiser who founded Citizens Cymru Wales. A former adviser to David Miliband MP, he says he has worked with Mark Drakeford MS on the Real Living Wage in social care, with Jane Hutt MS to welcome Syrian refugees to the Vale, and with Carwyn Jones MS to introduce the Real Living Wage in Welsh Government.

Bridgend councillor takes fifth spot

Fifth is Jon‑Paul Blundell, a Bridgend councillor for the Cefn‑Glas ward. He chairs the Communities, Environment and Housing Overview and Scrutiny Committee and was previously Cabinet Member for Education.

Barry councillor and wellbeing champion ranked sixth

Sixth on the list is Helen Payne, a Vale of Glamorgan councillor for the Cadoc ward in Barry. She was previously Projects Manager for Llamau, supporting vulnerable young people. Payne is the council’s Mental Wellbeing Champion, chairs the Investigating Committee, and serves as Vice Chair of the Start Well Scrutiny Committee.

Former cabinet member joins at seven

Seventh is Rhys Goode, a councillor for the Nant‑y‑moel ward on Bridgend Council. He has served as Cabinet Member for Housing, Planning & Regeneration (2023–24) and Cabinet Member for Wellbeing & Future Generations (2022–23). Goode was Head of Terrence Higgins Trust Cymru from 2022 to 2024, and has held senior communications roles at Klana and JustGiving.

Porthcawl councillor completes the list

Eighth is Neelo Farr, a trade unionist and councillor for Porthcawl on Bridgend Council. She is Cabinet Member for Regeneration, Economic Development and Housing, with a professional background as a mental health social worker.

Constituency boundaries

Pen‑y‑Bont Bro Morgannwg is one of 16 new Senedd “super constituencies” created for the 2026 election. It combines the Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan parliamentary areas, covering major towns including Bridgend, Barry, Cowbridge, Llantwit Major, Pencoed and Porthcawl. The constituency will elect six Members of the Senedd under the new proportional voting system.

Electoral outlook

While Murphy heads the slate, Labour’s prospects in Pen‑y‑Bont Bro Morgannwg are limited. Polling suggests the party is in line for just two seats in this constituency, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK also competing strongly as Labour’s support edges back.

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Ammanford deputy mayor tops Labour’s Senedd list for Carmarthenshire

Higgins brings legal and union background to the top of the list

Labour members in the new “super constituency” of Sir Gaerfyrddin, covering the Westminster seats of Caerfyrddin and Llanelli, have backed Higgins to head the party’s closed list under the expanded Senedd arrangements.

A fluent Welsh speaker, Higgins told members he wanted to “represent Sir Gaerfyrddin to make a difference on the ground, ensuring national policies deliver for our communities.” He pointed to his experience as a Citizens Advice lawyer during austerity and later as a manager for a health trade union representing members across Wales during the pandemic.

Currently deputy mayor of Ammanford, Higgins also sits on Ammanford Town Council and Lliedi Community Council. He has lived in Tycroes all his life, trained as a barrister, and worked for Citizens Advice Cymru before joining an NHS trade union as a policy officer. Away from politics he plays rugby for Tycroes RFC 2nds and is active in local groups including Tycroes Local Aid.

Teacher from Burry Port takes second place

Second on Labour’s list is Dawn Evans, a teacher from Burry Port. In her pitch she described herself as “a proud Welsh speaking woman, rooted in Carmarthenshire,” and spoke of her personal experience when her son Iwan was left with lifelong disabilities following ambulance delays.

“That experience shaped me,” she said. “I promised myself that if I ever had a chance to improve health and care services for others, I would.”

County councillor and consultant joins the slate

Third on the list is Martyn Palfreman, Labour County Councillor for the Hengoed ward. He is also a consultant specialising in improvement across social care, health and public services, with a career background in practice development and service transformation.

Llanelli architect and town council leader makes his bid

Fourth is David Darkin, an architect and leader of Llanelli Town Council, who launched his bid for the Senedd list in July. He has combined his professional expertise with civic leadership, and has been active in local politics and community design.

Advisor to Lee Waters MS takes fifth spot

Fifth is Lewis Eldred Davies, Labour County Councillor for Kidwelly & St Ishmael. He works as an advisor to Lee Waters MS, the controversial former transport minister who is not standing again at the next election.

Llanelli councillor and mental health campaigner completes the list

Sixth on the list is Andre McPherson, Labour County Councillor for Tyisha ward and a member of Llanelli Town Council. A qualified personal trainer, he also chairs the Board of Trustees for MIND’s Llanelli branch, supporting mental health services in the community.

Electoral outlook

While Higgins heads the slate, Labour’s prospects in Carmarthenshire are far from certain. Our previous poll reporting suggested the party is in line for just one seat in this constituency, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK both gaining ground as Labour’s support edges back.

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BAME and union activist tops Labour’s Senedd list for Neath, Swansea East and Brecon

Heading the list is Dr Mahaboob Basha, a Swansea University External Relations Manager and long‑standing union activist. Originally from Tamil Nadu, India, Basha has worked with governments and international organisations including the United Nations. Diagnosed with dyslexia and colour blindness in his twenties, he has become a prominent advocate for equality and representation, chairing Welsh Labour’s BAME membership group. His community work — including delivering thousands of hot meals through Sketty Youth Club — was recognised earlier this year with a British Citizen Award.

Behind him in second place is Alex Sims, who works as office manager for Cardiff MS Jenny Rathbone. Sims has built experience in constituency casework and political organisation, giving him insight into policy delivery and community engagement.

Third on the list is Sarah Thomas, a councillor on Neath Port Talbot Council representing Gwaun‑Cae‑Gurwen and Lower Brynaman. She serves as shadow cabinet member for Finance, Performance & Social Justice, bringing local government experience and a focus on financial accountability and equality.

Further down the list are Elliot Wigfall, a Labour councillor for Ynysybwl and Coed Y Cwm Community Council; Cyriac George, a Care Officer at Swansea Council originally from Kerala, India; Chelsea Edwards, a younger Labour activist involved in community campaigning; and Morgan Pritchard, another emerging figure from the party’s renewal process.

Wider contest

Labour’s announcement comes as other parties have already named their candidates for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Plaid Cymru’s team includes sitting MS Sioned Williams, councillor Rebeca Phillips, community activist Andrew Jenkins, and Abercraf councillor Justin Horrell. The Welsh Liberal Democrats have confirmed that party leader Jane Dodds MS will head their list in the constituency.

Polling picture

As reported by Swansea Bay News earlier this month, the latest polling suggests Labour is currently on track to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. That would mean only the top‑ranked candidate — Dr Mahaboob Basha — is likely to secure election if current trends hold, with Reform UK and Plaid Cymru also expected to perform strongly in the area.

What happens next

These rankings remain provisional and subject to endorsement by Welsh Labour’s Executive Committee before being finalised. Further lists for the remaining constituencies will be published in the coming weeks as parties prepare for the next Senedd election.

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Former Carmarthen MP Gwynoro Jones to stand trial on sexual assault charge

A former Welsh MP will face trial next year accused of sexually assaulting a woman.

Gwynoro Jones, 82, of West Street in Gorseinon, Swansea, is charged with one count of sexual assault in relation to an alleged incident on 11 June 2024. He denies the offence.

Jones, who represented Carmarthen for Labour in the House of Commons between 1970 and 1974, was not present at Swansea Crown Court on Tuesday morning when Judge Huw Rees fixed a trial date for 20 July 2026. He remains on unconditional bail until then.

The charge relates to an allegation that Jones touched a woman without consent while travelling on a train. A previous hearing in April this year was told the incident had been recorded on CCTV.

At that hearing, Jones pleaded not guilty, speaking only to confirm his name. A two‑day trial had initially been scheduled for November 2025, but the case will now be heard next summer.

Jones, who later became known as a broadcaster and commentator after leaving politics, has consistently denied the allegation.

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