EditorTories dangle Senedd budget talks with Labour – with a big tax‑cut catch
The move, announced in a letter from opposition leader Darren Millar MS, comes as Labour faces a tight Senedd arithmetic and the looming Caerphilly by‑election, but is widely seen as unlikely to lead to a deal.
Conservatives say they are “responsible opposition”
In his letter, Millar said the Conservatives could not support a “business as usual” budget that simply rose with inflation, but suggested an agreement “may be possible” if the Welsh Government considered some of their priorities.
Chief among those is the scrapping of Welsh Stamp Duty (Land Transaction Tax) for all primary residential properties. Millar argued this would help first‑time buyers onto the housing ladder, improve mobility in the market and boost the economy.
He said:
“While the Welsh Conservatives fundamentally disagree with the Welsh Labour Government on many things, we are a responsible opposition that will always strive to put the people of Wales first.”
A tax power at the heart of the row
The focus on Land Transaction Tax is significant. It is one of the few tax‑raising powers devolved to the Welsh Government, alongside income tax variation and landfill disposals. That makes it a symbolic battleground: Conservatives want to use it to cut the cost of buying homes, while Labour has historically defended it as a tool to raise revenue for public services.
By putting Stamp Duty abolition at the centre of their offer, the Conservatives are effectively using the budget talks to promote a flagship policy that Labour is highly unlikely to accept.
Political arithmetic and the Caerphilly by‑election
The Welsh Government does not hold a majority in the Senedd, meaning it must secure support from at least one other party to pass its spending plans. That task has become even more precarious following the death of Labour MS Hefin David in August, which triggered a by‑election in Caerphilly later this month.
While Labour has held the seat since the Senedd was established, both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are mounting strong challenges. If Labour were to lose, the balance of power in Cardiff Bay would tilt further away from the government, making deals with opposition parties even more essential.
Most observers believe Labour is far more likely to seek support from Plaid Cymru or the Welsh Liberal Democrats — both of whom have previously struck budget agreements — than to enter into talks with the Conservatives.
More PR than negotiation?
That context makes Millar’s letter look less like the start of genuine negotiations and more like a political manoeuvre. By offering talks on the budget, the Conservatives can present themselves as constructive while simultaneously pushing their tax‑cutting agenda into the headlines.
Whether or not the First Minister responds, the Conservatives have already succeeded in framing Stamp Duty abolition as part of the budget debate — even if the chances of Labour taking them up on the offer remain slim.
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