THE £14BN RAIL ROW: Swansea West MP hails ‘generational’ investment—but Lib Dems claim city has been ‘abandoned’

Swansea West MP Torsten Bell has moved to reassure residents that the city is at the heart of a long-awaited £14 billion rail upgrade pipeline. The plan, endorsed by the Prime Minister and First Minister, crucially includes the Swansea Bay Metro, a new station in Cockett, and the long-campaigned-for electrification of the main line beyond Cardiff to Swansea.

‘At Last’: Swansea Featured Heavily

Mr Bell, who also serves as a UK Treasury Minister, claims to have helped secure Swansea’s place in the multi-billion pound vision. He argues that the new pipeline marks the end of years of “underinvestment” by previous governments.

Torsten Bell MP said:

“Swansea has been let down by years of underinvestment in our rail system. I’m proud to play a part in putting that right. Securing this major step forward for Swansea has been a top priority for me from day one.”

The ‘Swansea Bay Metro’ Vision

Documents released by Transport for Wales (TfW) reveal the scale of the ambition for the region. The proposed Swansea Bay and West Wales Metro includes:

  • Seven New Stations: Locations including Cockett, Landore, and Winch Wen are slated for development to better connect local communities.
  • Increased Frequency: New Metro services running initially every 30 minutes, with the potential to increase to four trains per hour.
  • Regional Upgrades: A new half-hourly service between Swansea and Pembrey & Burry Port, and a new station at St Clears in West Wales.
  • Electrification: A “step-by-step” programme to decarbonise the rail network across the Swansea Bay area.
Extract from TfW pipeline document
(Image: Transport for Wales)

‘Jam Tomorrow’ or Real Investment?

However, the Welsh Liberal Democrats have hit back, branding the announcement as “falsely claiming” a £14 billion commitment. They point out that while the pipeline is valued at £14bn, the actual confirmed funding from last summer’s Spending Review is just £445 million—almost all of which is concentrated in the Cardiff and Newport corridor.

Sam Bennett, Lib Dem candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe, said:

“Swansea is Wales’ second city, yet it has been completely overlooked while funding is concentrated almost entirely around Cardiff. Announcing big projects without the funding to deliver them is exactly the kind of politics people are fed up with.”

The Funding Dispute

A spokesperson for Mr Bell’s office clarified that while funding is confirmed in individual Spending Reviews, this is the first time a UK government has committed to a long-term pipeline developed alongside the Welsh Government. They argue that this promise should be judged on the current government’s “record of actually delivering.”

The Liberal Democrats remain unconvinced, highlighting the lack of a “firm commitment” to a specific date for the electrification of the line to Swansea—a move local businesses say is essential for the success of the ports at Port Talbot and Milford Haven.

Is this a ‘game-changer’ for Swansea or just more empty promises? Have your say below.

#CockettNewStation #electrifyRailToSwansea #LandoreNewStation #railInvestment #SamBennett #StClearsNewStation #SwanseaBayMetro #TorstenBellMP #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats #WinchWenNewStation

Swansea councillor warns Welsh pubs risk being ‘left behind’ as business rates row deepens

Welsh Liberal Democrat councillor, Sam Bennett — who represents Swansea’s Waterfront ward and is standing for the Senedd in Gŵyr Abertawe — said ministers must “urgently change course” to stop Welsh venues being placed at a competitive disadvantage.

The row erupted after the UK Chancellor announced extra relief for pubs and music venues in England, cutting an average £1,650 from their bills next year. The support does not apply in Wales, and the Welsh Government has yet to confirm whether it will introduce a similar scheme.

When pressed in the Senedd by Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds, the First Minister declined to commit to matching the English package, saying she needed to examine the details first.

Bennett said that hesitation was already causing alarm among Swansea Bay businesses facing rising costs, staff shortages and falling footfall.

Cllr Sam Bennett said:

“Pubs and hospitality businesses are at the heart of our communities, but too many are being pushed to the brink. Scaling back business rates relief now would be a serious mistake.

Support cannot stop at pubs alone. Cafés, restaurants and other hospitality businesses are facing exactly the same pressures.”

Industry leaders warn Wales is becoming uncompetitive

Concerns over Wales’ business rates system intensified this week after a BBC report highlighted the widening gap between Wales and England.

The broadcaster spoke to Philip Thomas, Wales director of the Society of Independent Brewers, who said his Treforest brewery would pay no business rates at all if it were located just across the border in Somerset.

Thomas warned that the disparity was “impacting on our ability to compete”, with English rivals — who pay nothing — selling beer into Welsh pubs.

His comments echo growing frustration across the sector as new valuations and the end of pandemic‑era relief push bills sharply higher from April.

Analysis by UK Hospitality shows the sector’s business rates bill in Wales is set to rise from £83.1m this year to £135.7m by 2028‑29.

Political pressure grows — even within Labour

The political tension deepened after Gower MP Tonia Antoniazzi, who chairs Westminster’s All‑Party Parliamentary Beer Group, publicly welcomed the Chancellor’s decision to cut business rates for English pubs.

She said she had been “pushing for pubs to get a fairer deal” and thanked the Chancellor for listening — but made no reference to Wales, where pubs will not receive the same support unless the Welsh Government chooses to replicate it.

Welsh Government: ‘More to say soon’

A Welsh Government spokesperson said ministers were finalising plans for additional support and would announce details soon.

They insisted that almost half of Welsh pubs already receive Small Business Rates Relief, and more than a quarter pay no rates at all.

But Bennett said Swansea Bay businesses cannot wait much longer for clarity.

Cllr Sam Bennett said:

“Without urgent action, we risk losing viable, well‑loved businesses that communities in Swansea Bay simply cannot afford to lose.”

#AllPartyParliamentaryBeerGroup #Beer #Business #businessRates #hospitality #hospitalityBusiness #LibDems #pubs #SamBennett #SocietyOfIndependentBrewers #ToniaAntoniazziMP #WelshGovernment #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Labour accused of dirty tricks as row over future of Maesteg Hospital intensifies

Concerns about the hospital have been building for months as Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board develops plans for a new Health and Wellbeing Centre for the Llynfi Valley. The board says it has access to around £30 million of Welsh Government funding to expand local services, but that the existing hospital site cannot be redeveloped within that budget. That position has fuelled fears about the loss of beds, the future of the building and whether the community is being properly consulted.

The latest flashpoint came after Labour representatives claimed that protest organisers, including Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate Dean Ronan, had “declined to engage” with the health board. The allegation appeared in a series of letters signed by Huw Irranca‑Davies MS, David Rees MS, Stephen Kinnock MP and local councillors, who accused some campaigners of “politicising” the issue.

Huw Irranca Davies MS outside Maesteg Community Hospital, alongside protestors calling for transparency and opposing the potential closure or sale of the site.

Labour representatives wrote:

We now understand that you have indeed reached out to the main organisers – including a candidate for the Liberal Democrats – and they have declined to engage with you.

They also warned that the £30 million investment must not be put at risk.

Labour representatives wrote:

We certainly do not want to lose the £30m which Welsh Government have already put forward… this matter is of such huge importance it should be well beyond party politics.

Dean Ronan has rejected the claim outright, saying he has never been contacted by the health board and could not have refused a meeting that was never offered.

Dean Ronan, Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate, said:

Not once have I been contacted about the future of Maesteg Hospital. I could not have declined a meeting that was never offered. If Labour or the health board have evidence to the contrary, they should publish it immediately.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats say the campaign to protect the hospital has always been community‑led and cross‑party, involving the League of Friends, independent councillors and Plaid Cymru candidates. They argue that the focus should be on the future of services, not political point‑scoring.

Dean Ronan, Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate, pictured at a Maesteg Hospital protest calling for transparency and community-led decision-making over the future of local healthcare services.

David Chadwick MP, Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster spokesperson, said:

This looks like a classic dirty tricks operation — brief against local campaigners, make untrue claims, and hope nobody challenges them.

On Sunday, Dean Ronan issued a new public statement confirming that he had been invited to meet Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca‑Davies to discuss the future of healthcare in Maesteg. He said he was open to meeting, but only if a public apology was issued for what he described as “false statements” made about him earlier in the week.

Dean Ronan, Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate, said:

I informed Huw that I would be open to meeting with him and sharing my views, on the condition that a public apology was issued by himself and the local councillors who attached their names to false statements made about me earlier this week. I was told that Huw would not issue a public apology, as he did not wish to focus on ‘politics or personalities’. As a result, I have declined the meeting.”

He said the issue was not political, but personal.

Mr Ronan added:

Morally, it does not sit right with me to allow lies to be told or left unchallenged. These are my values as a person, not a political position. The people of Maesteg deserve representatives who are honest and transparent at all times. Integrity and honesty matter more to me than any party policy.”

He added that he remained open to dialogue if a public apology was issued.

The full stone frontage of Maesteg Community Hospital, a landmark building at the centre of the debate over future health services in the Llynfi Valley.
(Image: Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board)

What the health board says it is planning

Behind the political row sits a much larger debate about what the health board is proposing for the Llynfi Valley.

The board says it wants to deliver a wider range of services locally, including urgent care, expanded outpatient clinics, mental health support, integrated community teams and space for third‑sector wellbeing organisations. It argues that these improvements cannot be delivered within the existing hospital buildings, which would cost at least £42 million to redevelop and potentially up to £48 million if further structural issues are uncovered.

A spokesperson for Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board said:

We have not taken any decisions to close Maesteg Hospital or sell the site. Whatever the future holds for this important, much‑loved building will take into account the views of local people and the heritage of the site.

The board says it is exploring a potential new site near Ewenny Road, close to Maesteg town centre and the railway station, because it offers better access and can accommodate the size of building required for modern services. It also says it is considering alternatives to hospital‑based community beds, including block‑booking beds in local nursing homes for rehabilitation, reablement and palliative care.

The health board said in its latest update:

Local people who are anxious about the future deserve the facts. We will continue to meet with representatives and provide information through other means.

Maesteg nestled in the Llynfi Valley, where plans for a new health and wellbeing centre have sparked debate over access, investment and the future of local services.
(Image: Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board)

Calls for transparency and engagement

Labour representatives say they share concerns about the future of the hospital building and have urged the board to protect the site’s heritage. They argue that the building is iconic and must not be left “empty or unloved”.

Labour representatives wrote:

There is no‑one in these communities who would allow this iconic building to lie empty or unloved or unused.

They also said they have pressed the health board to meet urgently with the League of Friends and all elected representatives, and that the board has now agreed to do so.

The health board says it has already held engagement events and will carry out further public consultation once more detailed work on both the existing site and the potential new site is complete. A decision on the preferred location is expected in early 2026.

For now, the political row continues to overshadow the process, with both sides accusing the other of misrepresenting the facts. What remains clear is that the future of Maesteg Hospital — its services, its beds and its building — has become one of the most contentious local issues in years, and the community is demanding answers.

#CwmTafMorgannwgNHS #DavidChadwickMP #DavidReesMS #DeanRonan #HealthAndWellbeingCentre #HuwIrrancaDaviesMS #LlynfiValley #Maesteg #MaestegCommunityHospital #MaestegHospitalClosure #StephenKinnockMP #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake in Wales

The YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University shows Plaid climbing to 37% of the vote — fourteen points clear of Reform UK — in a result that would trigger the biggest political shake‑up since devolution began in 1999.

Reform drops to 23%, the Greens leap to a record 13%, and Labour slumps to just 10%, its lowest Senedd rating ever recorded. The Conservatives also sit at 10%, leaving Wales’ two traditional governing parties tied for fourth place.

Under Wales’ new 96‑member Senedd, the figures would translate to Plaid winning 45 seats, just four short of an outright majority. Reform would take 23, the Greens 11, Labour eight and the Conservatives six.

Labour collapse deepens as Greens surge

The poll confirms a dramatic realignment in Welsh politics. Labour, which has dominated every Welsh election since 1922, now risks losing power for the first time in the history of devolution.

The Greens, meanwhile, record their strongest ever Welsh performance, overtaking Labour and the Conservatives for the first time.

Reform UK, which had been neck‑and‑neck with Plaid throughout 2025, sees its support fall sharply.

Senedd voting intention (YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales)

Fieldwork: 5–12 January 2026 • Wales • % of vote

Plaid Cymru 37% Reform UK 23% Green 13% Labour 10% Conservative 10% Lib Dem 5% Other 2%

Source: YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, January 2026.

Young voters break decisively with Labour as Greens and Plaid dominate

The raw YouGov data reveals a dramatic generational divide that cuts to the heart of Wales’ political realignment. Among 16 to 24‑year‑olds, the Greens now lead the field on 43%, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 42% — a combined 85% share that leaves the traditional parties almost nowhere.

Reform UK records just 6% among young voters, while Labour slumps to 4%, its weakest demographic performance in the entire poll.

The picture among older voters is far more fragmented. In the 65+ group, Plaid Cymru leads on 29%, with Reform UK close behind on 28%. The Conservatives remain competitive at 19%, while Labour manages 13% and the Greens fall to 4%.

The figures underline the scale of Labour’s challenge. The party that once dominated every age group in Wales is now squeezed from both sides — losing younger voters to Plaid and the Greens, and older voters to Reform and the Conservatives.

They also highlight the depth of Plaid Cymru’s surge. The party is now ahead among older voters and competitive among the youngest, a rare position in Welsh politics and one that strengthens its path to becoming the largest party in May.

Senedd voting intention — Age 16–24

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Conservative 0% Labour 4% Lib Dem 5% Plaid Cymru 42% Reform UK 6% Green 43% Other 0%

Senedd voting intention — Age 25–49

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Conservative 6% Labour 7% Lib Dem 5% Plaid Cymru 47% Reform UK 15% Green 17% Other 3%

Senedd voting intention — Age 50–64

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Conservative 7% Labour 12% Lib Dem 7% Plaid Cymru 32% Reform UK 33% Green 7% Other 2%

Senedd voting intention — Age 65+

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Conservative 19% Labour 13% Lib Dem 4% Plaid Cymru 29% Reform UK 28% Green 4% Other 2%

“A substantial shift” says leading academic

Dr Jac Larner, Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: This poll shows a stark contrast to previous polling, with a substantial 14‑point gap between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Senedd voting intention. While any single poll should come with a health warning, it continues broader trends in Welsh polling, where Plaid have enjoyed a modest boost and the Greens have surged.

He said the gains for Plaid and the Greens appear to be coming from previously undecided voters, and that Plaid is now seen by a majority of respondents as the party best placed to challenge Reform.

Parties react as campaign pressure intensifies

Plaid Cymru said the poll confirms the election is now a straight fight between them and Reform, claiming more voters are backing the party’s “positive vision for Wales”.

Welsh Labour said it was focused on “helping make people’s lives better”, while accusing Plaid of returning to its independence plans without explaining how they would be funded.

Westminster shock as Plaid overtakes Reform

The poll also shows Plaid now leading Westminster voting intention in Wales, rising to 29% and overtaking Reform on 25%. Labour collapses to 13%, with the Conservatives and Greens tied on 12%.

The shift follows Plaid’s by‑election victory in Caerphilly last autumn and rising approval for party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Wales heading for its most unpredictable election

With four months to go, the poll suggests Wales could be on the verge of a political realignment not seen in a generation. A Plaid Cymru First Minister is now a realistic prospect, with the party potentially able to govern with only Green support.

Reform UK remains a serious contender for official opposition, while Labour faces the possibility of losing power for the first time since devolution.

The poll surveyed 1,220 adults for Senedd voting intention and 1,205 adults for Westminster voting intention between 5 and 12 January.

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Plaid storms ahead as Labour vote collapses in Wales

A YouGov/Cardiff University survey of 2,500 adults across Wales shows Plaid on course to become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since devolution began in 1999. Reform UK trails narrowly on 30%, while Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 10% each. The Greens rise to 9% and the Liberal Democrats to 6%.

Under the new proportional voting system debuting in May 2026, Plaid would secure 39 seats, Reform 34, Labour 10, Conservatives six, Greens four and the Lib Dems three.

Labour dominance shattered by poll shock

Labour has led every Welsh Government since 1999, but the latest figures show the party reduced to historic lows. Once the dominant force in the Welsh‑identifying progressive bloc, Labour now retains only a fraction of its former support.

Cardiff University’s analysis makes clear this isn’t voters abandoning progressive politics altogether — it’s consolidation. Plaid has absorbed the bulk of Welsh‑identifying support, while Reform has swallowed Conservative backing among British‑identifying voters.

Generational divide drives realignment

The raw data reveals a stark split by age. Plaid dominates among younger voters, winning 37% of 18–24s and 31% of 25–34s. Reform surges among older voters, taking 31% of those aged 55–64 and 30% of those aged 65–74. Labour barely registers across all age groups, peaking at just 10%.

Education tells a similar story. Plaid is strongest among graduates, while Reform leads among those with no qualifications.

Voters say why they’re switching

Plaid supporters overwhelmingly cite “standing up for Wales” as their reason for switching, with nearly half of respondents choosing that option. A further fifth back Plaid tactically as “best placed to stop Reform UK.”

Reform voters are driven by immigration, with 42% saying it is the party’s defining issue. Nigel Farage’s leadership remains a powerful draw, with nearly one in five citing him as the only leader who understands ordinary people’s problems.

What it means for Wales

The poll does not provide constituency‑level figures, but the national trend is clear: Labour’s grip on Wales has loosened dramatically. Even in traditional strongholds, the party’s dominance can no longer be taken for granted.

If these figures hold, Welsh politics faces a generational realignment. For the first time in a century, Labour faces the prospect of opposition or junior coalition status, while Plaid Cymru is poised to lead the Senedd.

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Banking lifeline finally opens in Ystradgynlais after three‑year fight

After years without a single bank on the high street, Ystradgynlais residents can at last walk through the doors of a permanent banking hub. The new facility on Commercial Street is the result of a dogged three‑year campaign that saw locals, businesses and community leaders refuse to take “no” for an answer.

The town was left high and dry in 2023 when Lloyds shut its branch despite posting record profits. Public meetings followed, petitions were signed, and applications were lodged with LINK — the body that decides where hubs go. The first bid was rejected, but campaigners pushed back, challenging the data and dragging regulators to Ystradgynlais to see the need for themselves.

That persistence paid off. A temporary hub opened in May, and now a permanent site has been unveiled at 14 Commercial Street, SA9 1HD.

How the hub will serve the town

After years of being left without a single counter service, locals can now walk into the new Commercial Street hub and deal with real people again. Doors are open Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm, with different banks taking turns to staff the desks.

  • Mondays bring Barclays back to town, giving customers face‑to‑face access that vanished when branches closed.
  • Tuesdays are still waiting for a banker to be confirmed, but campaigners say it’s only a matter of time before another name is added.
  • Midweek sees Lloyds return on Wednesdays, a striking turnaround after the bank pulled out of Ystradgynlais in 2023.
  • HSBC takes the Thursday slot, offering services to residents who once had to travel miles for help.
  • Fridays finish with Halifax on hand, rounding off the week with another big name back on the high street.

Victory after years of pressure

The fight to bring banking back to Ystradgynlais wasn’t easy. Applications were rejected, data was disputed, and regulators had to be shown around the town to see the need first‑hand.

At the opening, local MP David Chadwick called it “fantastic news for Ystradgynlais” and reflected on the long road to success:

“After months of pressure, rejected applications and persistent campaigning, including personally showing the Banking Hub regulator around our vibrant town, I’m delighted we’ve secured a permanent, long‑term hub on Commercial Street.

“I launched this campaign to make sure communities like Ystradgynlais and the surrounding area aren’t cut off from essential services.

“Securing a permanent Banking Hub is a major step in ensuring our towns remain supported, connected and able to thrive.

“I will continue pushing to ensure that facilities like this remain protected and that no community in our area is left behind.”

Senedd Member Jane Dodds also welcomed the news, adding:

“Access to banking is not a luxury; it is a necessity, particularly for older residents, small businesses, and those who rely on cash. This hub will make a real and lasting difference.”

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#bank #BankingHub #DavidChadwickMP #JaneDoddsMS #WelshLiberalDemocrats #Ystradgynlais #YstradgynlaisBankingHub

Latest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck as South West Wales emerges as decisive battleground

The fresh Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru puts Reform on 27% (down three points since September), Plaid Cymru on 26% (up four), Labour on 21% (down two), Conservatives on 12%, Greens on 9% and Liberal Democrats on 3%.

Seat projections show Reform and Plaid neck‑and‑neck on 30 seats each, Labour on 24, Conservatives on 9, Greens on 2 and Lib Dems on just 1. That would almost certainly see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth installed as First Minister — either through a coalition with Labour or a looser cooperation deal.

But the real drama lies in the constituency breakdown.

South West Wales on a knife‑edge

The updated projections show how finely balanced the region has become:

Senedd ConstituencyComposed of Parliamentary SeatsProjected MSs (by party)Gŵyr AbertaweSwansea West + Gower3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 PlaidBrycheiniog Tawe NeddBrecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe + Neath & Swansea East3 Reform, 1 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Lib DemAfan Ogwr RhonddaAberafan Maesteg + Rhondda and Ogmore3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 PlaidSir GaerfyrddinLlanelli + Caerfyrddin3 Plaid, 2 Reform, 1 LabourCeredigion PenfroCeredigion Preseli + Mid and South Pembrokeshire3 Plaid, 2 Reform, 1 LabourPen‑y‑bont Bro MorgannwgBridgend + Vale of Glamorgan2 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Reform, Labour and Plaid split the six seats, with Reform edging ahead on three. In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid takes control with three seats, leaving Reform on two and Labour squeezed down to one. Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is even more fragmented, with Reform on three, Labour and Plaid on one each, plus single seats for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. And in Pen‑y‑bont Bro Morgannwg, Reform and Labour again take two apiece, leaving Plaid and the Conservatives with one each.

This mirrors the trend Swansea Bay News has tracked for months: Reform surging in working‑class valleys and coastal towns, Plaid consolidating its Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion heartlands, and Labour squeezed from both sides. The new numbers show Plaid clawing back ground, especially among younger voters and Welsh speakers, while Reform’s momentum has slowed.

Demographic divides deepen

The poll highlights stark splits:

  • Men lean Reform (29%), while women lean Plaid (27%).
  • Young voters (16–34) back Plaid (31%) and Labour (28%), leaving Reform trailing at 14%.
  • Middle‑aged voters (35–54) give Reform a commanding 36%.
  • Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid (41%), while non‑Welsh speakers put Reform ahead (31%).

These divides underline the cultural and generational fault lines running through South West Wales, with Reform strongest among older, non‑Welsh‑speaking voters and Plaid dominant among younger, Welsh‑speaking communities.

From landslide to stalemate

Just months ago, Reform were riding high in South West Wales, with polls showing them pulling ahead while Plaid slipped and Labour edged back. Warnings from the First Minister that a Reform or Plaid victory could plunge Wales into “chaos” reflected that momentum. Now, the picture is more complicated: Reform’s surge has stalled, Plaid has recovered, and Labour remains stuck in third place.

The result? A looming stalemate. With no party anywhere near a majority, South West Wales’ six‑seat constituencies could decide whether Wales ends up with a Reform‑dominated Senedd, a Plaid‑Labour coalition, or another fragile cooperation deal.

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#AfanOgwrRhondda #BeaufortResearch #BrycheiniogTaweNedd #Caerfyrddin #CeredigionPenfro #GreenParty #GŵyrAbertawe #PenYBontBroMorgannwg #PlaidCymru #politics #ReformUK #SeneddElection #SeneddElections2026 #SirGaerfyrddin #WelshConservatives #WelshLiberalDemocrats

New figures reveal Wales set to lose £6bn in rail funding row

Billions lost, investment bypasses rural Wales

Wales is set to miss out on another £1.3–£1.6 billion in transport funding after the UK Labour Government confirmed Northern Powerhouse Rail will go ahead as an “England and Wales” project.

The scheme, designed to link Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds, will not include a single centimetre of track in Wales. By classifying it as “England and Wales”, the Treasury avoids triggering Barnett consequentials that would have delivered funding for Welsh rail.

It follows similar decisions on HS2, the high‑speed line between London, Birmingham and Manchester, and East‑West Rail, which links Oxford and Cambridge. Together, those projects have already cost Wales up to £4.3 billion in lost investment. Combined, campaigners say Wales could now be short by around £6 billion.

Scotland and Northern Ireland cash in

While Wales is left empty‑handed, Scotland is set to receive £2.7 billion and Northern Ireland just under £1 billion as a result of Northern Powerhouse Rail.

A Treasury spokesperson said:

“Wales will benefit from £445 million of rail investment over the next decade — the biggest ever funding boost for Welsh rail.”

Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens has also defended the classification of projects like HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail as “England and Wales” schemes, arguing that Wales benefits indirectly from improved connections across the UK rail network.

Welsh Government stresses cooperation

First Minister Eluned Morgan said:

“We will continue to press for further commitments, including electrification of the North and South Mainlines, which remain vital for Wales’s future.”

She added that the settlement would deliver “significant extra investment in rail infrastructure” and emphasised the need for cooperation between governments.

Opposition parties cry foul

Plaid Cymru Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP said:

“Wales is owed billions from HS2 and now Northern Powerhouse Rail. Labour has failed to address chronic underfunding of our railways, and our communities are paying the price.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth also accused Labour of leaving Wales “short‑changed again” and said the First Minister had “no influence” over her Westminster colleagues.

Lib Dems demand devolved powers

Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster spokesperson David Chadwick MP said:

“This Labour Government is deliberately depriving Welsh communities of billions of pounds in transport funding, whilst expecting a pat on the back for delivering crumbs.

Labour has the power to change the system and stop these funding scandals, but has made its position clear — they are happy for Wales to be left behind, paying for megaprojects in England whilst our own rail and transport infrastructure collapses.”

Mid and West Wales left behind

Local campaigners say the funding gap is most keenly felt in Mid and West Wales, where rail services remain patchy and major projects have stalled.

Carl Peters‑Bond, independent candidate for the new Caerfyrddin constituency in next year’s Senedd elections, said:

“We’re told Wales is getting investment, but Mid and West Wales see none of it. Communities from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth are crying out for rail connectivity, yet billions are being spent on lines hundreds of miles away. It’s a betrayal of rural Wales.

Both Westminster and Cardiff need to stop playing politics and start building the infrastructure our communities desperately need. People here don’t want excuses — they want action.”

West Wales line campaign highlights the gap

The row comes just days after campaigners renewed calls for funding to restore the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth rail line, axed in the 1960s.

As Swansea Bay News reported at the weekend, supporters say reopening the line would transform connectivity across West Wales, boost the economy, and cut car dependency. Campaigners argue that the billions Wales is missing out on could easily fund projects like the Carmarthen–Aberystwyth line, yet instead the money is being spent on rail schemes in England.

Creaking infrastructure, growing anger

With rail electrification stalled and public transport under strain, campaigners warn the funding gap leaves Wales at risk of falling further behind.

The row adds to growing pressure on Labour to explain why Wales is repeatedly excluded from consequential funding, while neighbouring nations benefit.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Fresh cash call to bring back lost West Wales rail line
Campaigners launch crowdfunding bid to reopen the Carmarthen–Aberystwyth line, as Senedd row intensifies.

MP calls for devolved rail powers after £6.6bn project delivers nothing for Wales
David Chadwick MP demands rail powers for Wales after East‑West Rail confirmed as “England and Wales” scheme.

Chancellor’s £445m for Welsh rail investment criticised as “measly”
Rachel Reeves’ pledge of £445m over ten years branded inadequate compared to billions for Scotland and NI.

#CarlPetersBond #CarmarthenToAberystwythRailLink #DavidChadwickMP #EastWestRail #ElunedMorganMS #HS2 #HS3 #LizSavilleRobertsMP #NorthernPowerhouseRail #PlaidCymru #politics #railInvestment #RhunApIorwerthMS #UKLabour #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Autumn Budget 2025: Welsh parties clash over Reeves’s plans

Labour claims progress, opposition cries foul

Welsh Labour were quick to claim victory on one of their long‑standing demands: the scrapping of the two‑child benefit cap. First Minister Eluned Morgan said the change would lift support for 69,000 children in Wales, describing it as “helping to tackle the scourge of child poverty.” Labour also pointed to nearly £1bn in additional funding for the Welsh Government, which ministers say will bolster public services and allow investment in steel transition at Port Talbot, AI Growth Zones, and nuclear energy at Wylfa.

Plaid Cymru, however, accused Westminster of once again failing to deliver fair funding. Treasury spokesperson Ben Lake MP said the Budget “proves that when Westminster does the counting, Wales always loses out,” highlighting the absence of Barnett consequentials from major rail projects and warning that employer National Insurance increases would hit Welsh services hard. Plaid also criticised the First Minister’s response, claiming she had “no influence” over the UK Government’s decisions.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch responds to the Autumn Budget 2025 in the House of Commons, accusing the Chancellor of breaking promises and delivering a “circus.”
(Image: UK Parliament)

Conservatives, Reform and Lib Dems sharpen attacks

The Conservatives seized on the Budget’s chaotic delivery and its tax implications. UK leader Kemi Badenoch told MPs there was “no growth and no plan,” branding the episode a “circus” and accusing Reeves of breaking promises by extending the freeze on tax thresholds. Welsh Conservatives echoed the criticism, calling for a review of Wales’s fiscal framework and warning that inheritance tax changes and higher employer National Insurance would damage family farms and businesses.

Reform UK Wales went further, describing the Budget as proof that “having Labour Governments at both ends of the M4 has been a disaster.” The party said Reeves’s measures would take taxes to “post‑WW2 highs,” framing the upcoming elections as a choice between Plaid Cymru, whom they accused of backing Labour’s tax rises, and Reform as “a new hope for left behind communities.”

Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey addresses the House of Commons during the Autumn Budget 2025, criticising the Chancellor’s approach to growth and taxation.
(Image: UK Parliament)

The Liberal Democrats also joined the chorus of criticism. Party leader Ed Davey said Reeves “has diagnosed the disease but not administered the cure,” arguing that “you can’t tax your way to growth” and calling for a new trade deal with Europe. Former pensions minister Steve Webb added that the extended tax threshold freeze would drag hundreds of thousands more pensioners into paying income tax, warning of a growing burden on older households.

Together, the reactions underline how Reeves’s Budget has become a political battleground in Wales: Labour presenting it as a progressive step for families and public services, while opposition parties line up to portray it as chaotic, unfair, and economically damaging.

For a full breakdown of the Budget measures and their impact in Wales, read our explainer here.

#autumnBudget2025 #benLakeMp #budget #edDavey #kemiBadenoch #plaidCymru #rachelReeves #rachelReevesBudget #rachelReevesMp #reformUk #ukBudget2025 #ukParliament #welshConservatives #welshLabour #welshLiberalDemocrats

Reform UK pulls ahead as Plaid slips and Labour edges back in new Senedd poll

From three‑way squeeze to Reform lead

Just a month ago, Swansea Bay News reported on a YouGov survey that suggested a three‑way squeeze at the top of Welsh politics, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck‑and‑neck and Labour slumping to a historic low. The latest Barn Cymru/Beaufort Research poll, however, points to a decisive shift.

Reform UK has surged to 30% of the vote, pulling clear of its rivals and establishing itself as the largest party in Wales. Labour has edged back to 23%, recovering some ground but still far from its traditional dominance, while Plaid Cymru has slipped into third place on 22%. The Conservatives continue their downward slide, now on just 11%, while the Greens have quietly climbed to 9% — enough for a projected foothold in the Senedd under the new system.

When translated into seats under the new 96‑member system, the numbers would give Reform 37, Plaid 25, Labour 24, the Conservatives 7, the Greens 2 and the Liberal Democrats 1. That leaves no party close to the 49 seats needed for a majority.

Coalition arithmetic

The most likely outcome on these figures would be a Plaid‑led coalition with Labour, which together would command 49 seats — just enough for a working majority. By contrast, a Reform‑Conservative bloc would fall short, with only 44 seats between them, leaving Reform as the largest party but unable to govern without further partners.

A Plaid‑Labour‑Green arrangement would be more comfortable at 51 seats, but it’s worth stressing that the Greens currently hold no seats in the Senedd — so any such deal would only be possible if they do indeed win representation next May.

Updated Senedd projections for South West Wales

Senedd ConstituencyComposed of Parliamentary SeatsProjected MSs (by party)Gŵyr AbertaweSwansea West + Gower3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 PlaidBrycheiniog Tawe NeddBrecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe + Neath & Swansea East3 Reform, 1 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Lib DemAfan Ogwr RhonddaAberafan Maesteg + Rhondda and Ogmore3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 PlaidSir GaerfyrddinLlanelli + Caerfyrddin3 Plaid, 2 Reform, 1 LabourCeredigion PenfroCeredigion Preseli + Mid and South Pembrokeshire3 Plaid, 2 Reform, 1 LabourPen‑y‑bont Bro MorgannwgBridgend + Vale of Glamorgan2 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid

Compared with our September projections, Reform strengthens in Swansea‑based constituencies, gaining an extra seat in both Gŵyr Abertawe and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Labour weakens in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, dropping from two seats to one, while Plaid picks up in Afan Ogwr Rhondda. The most dramatic change is in Ceredigion Penfro, where Plaid is now projected to take three seats, wiping out the Conservatives’ Pembrokeshire foothold.

Regional and demographic divides

The Beaufort poll also highlights sharp contrasts beneath the headline numbers. Reform’s surge is concentrated in Cardiff and South East Wales, where it polls 37%, while Plaid remains competitive in North and Mid Wales. In the South West and Valleys, the three main parties are tightly bunched, with Reform on 28%, Labour 26% and Plaid 25%.

Demographically, Reform’s support skews older and working‑class: it leads by a wide margin among voters aged 55+ and among those in the C2DE social grades. Labour and Plaid perform better among younger and professional voters, while the Greens’ rise is driven in part by stronger support among women.

Language also plays a role. Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid Cymru (45%), while non‑speakers tilt towards Reform (33%). This cultural divide underlines the different electoral coalitions each party is trying to build.

Caerphilly by‑election

The timing of the poll is significant. On Thursday, voters in Caerphilly will choose a new MS following the death of Labour’s Hefin David. Labour currently holds 30 of the 60 Senedd seats, relying on support from other parties — particularly the sole Liberal Democrat, Jane Dodds — to pass legislation and the annual budget.

If Labour were to lose Caerphilly, its total would fall to 29 seats, making it much harder to govern. Even with Lib Dem support, the party would fall short of a working majority, forcing it to seek wider co‑operation with Plaid Cymru or others to get bills through. Local polling suggests the contest is shaping up as a two‑horse race between Reform and Plaid, underlining the scale of the threat to Labour’s hold on the seat.

Polling caveats

As with all opinion polls, these figures come with a margin of error — typically around three percentage points either way. Different polling companies also use different methods of weighting and sampling, which can produce variations in headline numbers. The contrast between September’s YouGov poll (which had Plaid narrowly ahead) and October’s Beaufort poll (which puts Reform clearly in front) is a reminder of that.

And, crucially, the next Senedd election is not until May 2026. With more than six months to go, voter sentiment can and will shift. These polls are a snapshot of opinion today, not a prediction of the final result.

Outlook: a fragmented Senedd ahead

Taken together, the September YouGov poll and the October Beaufort figures chart a rapid evolution in Welsh politics: from a three‑way squeeze to a Reform‑led race, with Plaid and Labour battling for second place and the Conservatives reduced to the margins. With no party projected to govern alone, the next Senedd looks set to be defined by coalition deals — and by whether Labour can steady its position in the months ahead.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck‑and‑neck as Labour slumps to historic low in new Senedd poll
Our September analysis of YouGov figures showed a three‑way squeeze at the top of Welsh politics.

Senedd votes to increase number of members to 96
Explainer on the reforms that will reshape the electoral system ahead of the 2026 election.

Reform projected to have most Senedd seats – but Plaid and Labour coalition most likely government
Previous projection analysis showing why coalition arithmetic will define the next Senedd.

#Election #GreenParty #PlaidCymru #polling #ReformUK #SeneddElection #SeneddElections2026 #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats