SENEDD ELECTION: What does a Welsh defeat mean for Keir Starmer? — Labour figures call for prime minister to step down if results match predictions

A defeat for Welsh Labour in today’s Senedd election will pile fresh pressure on Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership of the UK Labour Party – with senior figures already calling for him to step aside.

Mick Antoniw, the former Welsh counsel general who did not seek re-election yesterday, has called for the prime minister to make way for a new leader if the results are as bad as predicted.

“If the results are as bad as predicted then there will have to be a change of leadership,” he said. “Not an immediate departure but a planned, orderly and open transition and an open and transparent contest.”

Antoniw described the campaign as the most difficult Welsh Labour had faced in living memory.

He said the election seemed to be “more about Downing Street and immigration than Wales.”

Mick Antoniw
(Image: facebook)

A former Welsh government minister has also said Sir Keir should stand down if the results are as bad as predicted.

The interventions reflect a wider mood within Welsh Labour that the prime minister has become a serious drag on the party’s electoral fortunes – a view reportedly shared by senior Welsh Labour figures throughout the campaign.

Labour sources said throughout the campaign that Sir Keir had come up negatively with voters on doorsteps across Wales.

A “grudging” acknowledgement that he had handled the UK’s response to the Iran war well had been soured, sources said, by the Lord Mandelson saga.

Despite that, several Welsh Labour MPs have indicated they are not expecting a formal challenge to the prime minister – even though one frontbencher has described the mood within the party as “at rock bottom.”

A number of MPs called instead for a bolder set of policies and for lessons to be learned from a difficult electoral picture.

Lord Carwyn Jones of Penybont
(Image: House of Lords / Roger Harris)

Former Welsh first minister Carwyn Jones offered a more measured assessment in an interview on BBC Radio Wales Breakfast.

Asked whether he stood by the prime minister, Jones said yes – but added that things needed to change at Westminster.

“I don’t think it’s simply a question of if Keir Starmer goes everything will be fine – it’s not that easy,” he said.

But he said the broader direction of the UK Labour government needed to shift. “Do things need to change at Westminster? Yes,” he said.

“The message has to be more optimistic, we have to be more robust, we have to believe in ourselves a lot more, we have to give a sense of direction.”

He said all those things were missing at the moment. “Those are the most important things, and it’s up to Keir to show that he can provide that,” he said.

A senior Welsh Labour figure has described polling day yesterday as “awful.”

“I’ve never known anything like it,” they said. “We’ve been knocking on the doors of people who’ve consistently voted Labour in the past only to find the vast majority have voted Plaid, Reform, Green or importantly stayed at home.”

The figure said two messages had cut through with voters during the campaign – both of them deeply unhelpful for the UK government.

“The Plaid message ‘we’re the only party to stop Reform’ has really cut through. But Reform have also cashed in big time on disillusionment with Keir Starmer and our Labour government,” they said.

The framing reflects a campaign that has, in many ways, become a referendum on the UK Labour government’s first year in office.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage made that explicit when he kicked off Reform’s Welsh campaign earlier this year, describing the election as “a referendum on Starmer.”

That framing now appears to have landed.

Reform won more than 300 council seats in English local elections that took place yesterday – momentum that will further fuel calls for the prime minister to consider his position.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, lost more than 100 seats in those English elections.

A Welsh Labour defeat today would carry historic significance for the UK Labour Party.

One of the modern Labour party’s founders, Keir Hardie, was MP for Merthyr Tydfil from 1900 to 1915 – and Labour has emerged from every general election as Wales’ largest party since 1922.

The party has won every Welsh election since the Senedd was first established in 1999, and led every Welsh government since then. Health, education, transport, housing and local government in Wales have all been shaped by Labour-led administrations for more than a quarter of a century.

A defeat in Wales today would end that unbroken record – and represent the loss of one of the UK Labour Party’s deepest historical strongholds.

The implications for the prime minister will be felt beyond Wales.

Labour faces a difficult set of local elections in England later this year, plus elections to the Scottish Parliament – both of which will now be watched closely as further tests of Sir Keir’s leadership.

If the defeat in Wales is confirmed today, the party at Westminster faces a period of intense soul-searching about what has gone wrong – and whether a change at the top can reverse the slide before it becomes terminal.

The prime minister, for his part, has so far given no public indication that he intends to step down.

But the calls from senior Welsh Labour figures for him to consider his position will grow louder if the result tonight is as bad as expected.

Welsh first minister Eluned Morgan said consistently during the campaign that Sir Keir was “not on the ballot paper.”

When asked on Wednesday whether he could stay on if Labour lost in Wales, she declined to be drawn into what she called speculation.

Within hours, she may have her answer.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

Welsh Labour bracing for historic loss as counting begins – and Eluned Morgan’s own seat hangs in the balance
Our overnight roundup of the political mood as counting gets underway across Wales.

Polls have closed – here’s what happens next, and how the new D’Hondt voting system works
Our complete guide to the count, the D’Hondt formula, and when results will land.

Your new MS will earn £79,817 – and the First Minister’s salary tops £174,000
What Wales’ new Senedd Members will be paid when they take their seats.

Two-thirds of Welsh voters didn’t understand the new voting system
The polling that revealed mass confusion just days before the vote.

Reform UK announces detention centres plan three days before polls open
The Reform UK announcement that dominated the final days of the campaign.

Reform UK Wales leader visits Llanelli as party targets Sir Gaerfyrddin seats
Reform’s late campaign push in our patch with Dan Thomas in Llanelli.

#CarwynJones #ElunedMorganMS #KeirStarmer #MickAntoniwMS #SeneddElection2026 #WelshLabour

SENEDD ELECTION: Welsh Labour bracing for historic loss as counting begins — and Eluned Morgan’s own seat hangs in the balance

Welsh Labour is bracing for a historic defeat as counting begins across Wales this morning – with senior party sources reportedly acknowledging for the first time that the party will lose power today.

Counting in the 2026 Senedd election will get underway from 9.30am at Neath Port Talbot Council and 10am in Swansea, with the first declarations expected from 2pm.

If the result matches pre-election polling and overnight expectations, today will mark the end of an unbroken Welsh Labour winning streak that goes back more than 100 years.

The party has been the largest in every major Welsh election – Westminster and Senedd – since 1922. It has been in power in Wales, either alone or in coalition, since the Senedd was first established in 1999.

Senior Labour sources, who had previously refused to accept that pre-election polls were accurate, were last night reportedly acknowledging that the party will lose power in Wales today.

Labour insiders are also said to believe it is on a knife edge as to whether First Minister Eluned Morgan will keep her own seat in Ceredigion Penfro.

If Morgan loses, the party will face an immediate scramble to appoint a new leader of Welsh Labour in the Senedd – even on an interim basis.

That decision could come within hours of the result.

Ballot boxes waiting to be counted (Image: Carmarthenshire Council)

Welsh Labour campaign chair Huw Irranca-Davies issued a statement at the close of polls last night acknowledging the difficulty of the campaign.

“We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances,” he said.

“After many years in government in Wales, and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration. The ongoing pressures people face from the cost of living are real and hurt deeply.”

He said the party would reflect on the result with humility. “There were many tough messages heard on the doorstep. And in the days ahead, we will reflect carefully and listen with humility to what voters are telling us. There will be no dodging. No deflection. Just determination to put things right.”

He paid tribute to Eluned Morgan’s leadership during what he described as one of the hardest moments Welsh Labour has faced.

“Throughout this campaign, Eluned Morgan has shown positive, energetic, and determined leadership in very difficult times,” he said. “She took on the challenge during one of the hardest moments Welsh Labour has faced, leading with resilience, warmth, and focus.”

Plaid Cymru – projected by the final YouGov MRP to become the largest party in the new Senedd – struck a more measured tone in its overnight statement.

A spokesperson said the party was looking forward to the results with humility and with hope.

“Throughout this election, we have heard a clear appetite for change,” they said. “People want a government that will stand up for Wales and focus relentlessly on the key issues affecting their lives.”

The spokesperson said voters had been inspired by leader Rhun ap Iorwerth. “People have told us they have been inspired by Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership and driven by a desire for a positive alternative to Reform UK’s chaos and division,” they said.

The Plaid statement reflects the central political dynamic of this election – a tight battle between Plaid and Reform UK, both projected by the final pre-election polls to make significant gains at Welsh Labour’s expense.

Reform UK’s momentum was further underlined overnight by results from local elections in England.

Reform won more than 300 council seats across English local authorities in voting that took place yesterday – a strong performance that will boost the party’s confidence going into today’s Senedd count.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, lost more than 100 seats in those English elections – adding to a difficult electoral picture for the official UK opposition.

In Wales, two early constituency turnout figures have been confirmed – both showing turnout in the high 40s.

Casnewydd Islwyn recorded a turnout of 47.8% according to returning officer Beverly Owen, while neighbouring Blaenau Gwent Caerffilii Rhymni recorded 47.7%.

Turnout will be a key figure to watch as the day unfolds. A higher than expected turnout is generally seen as a positive indicator for Reform UK, with the party having focused much of its campaign on mobilising voters who have not traditionally turned out at Welsh elections.

Final turnout figures across all 16 Welsh constituencies will be confirmed as counts get underway throughout the morning.

The Electoral Commission’s chief executive Vijay Rangarajan praised the running of yesterday’s polls.

“Polling station staff dealt with any issues swiftly without disruption to the poll. Millions of people were able to cast their votes, and people had access to clear, reliable information about how to take part,” he said.

He said the Commission had not seen significant deepfakes affecting the elections, but would gather evidence from voters, candidates and others to inform a full assessment to be published in the autumn.

The first Senedd declarations are expected from 2pm, with Casnewydd Islwyn, Gwyr Abertawe and Sir Fynwy Torfaen the earliest in the country.

Sir Gaerfyrddin and Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr are expected to declare around 4pm, with the latest declaration expected from Fflint Wrecsam at 5.30pm.

A complete picture of the new Senedd should therefore be clear by early evening – at which point the focus will turn to coalition negotiations and the make-up of Wales’ next government.

Swansea Bay News will be reporting live from the Sir Gaerfyrddin count throughout the day, with updates from across south-west Wales as results come in.

Our Senedd Election 2026 coverage

Polls have closed – here’s what happens next, and how the new D’Hondt voting system works
Our complete guide to the count, the D’Hondt formula, and when results will land.

Voting today? Everything you need to know about the new system
The polling-day reader service guide that helped voters navigate the new system.

Your new MS will earn £79,817 – and the First Minister’s salary tops £174,000
What Wales’ new Senedd Members will be paid when they take their seats.

Two-thirds of Welsh voters didn’t understand the new voting system
The polling that revealed mass confusion just days before the vote.

Reform UK announces detention centres plan three days before polls open
The Reform UK announcement that dominated the final days of the campaign.

Two Debenhams buildings, two very different outcomes – Senedd candidates question council priorities
The Carmarthen story that became a flashpoint for local Senedd candidates.

Reform UK Wales leader visits Llanelli as party targets Sir Gaerfyrddin seats
Reform’s late campaign push in our patch with Dan Thomas in Llanelli.

#ElunedMorganMS #PlaidCymru #ReformUK #SeneddElection2026 #WelshLabour

SENEDD ELECTION: First Minister set to lose her seat as final poll predicts Labour wipeout across south-west Wales

The First Minister of Wales is on course to lose her seat at Thursday’s Senedd election, according to the final major poll of the campaign – capping what would be the worst result in Welsh Labour’s century-long dominance of devolved and Westminster politics in Wales.

The YouGov MRP poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, published on Tuesday evening, projects Plaid Cymru taking four of the six seats in Ceredigion Penfro – the new constituency where Eluned Morgan is Labour’s lead candidate. Reform UK take the remaining two. Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all return zero MSs from Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion under the projection.

Across south-west Wales as a whole, the picture is similarly stark for Welsh Labour. Of the 36 Senedd seats spread across the six new constituencies covering Swansea, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion, Powys, Neath Port Talbot, the Rhondda, Bridgend and the Vale of Glamorgan, Labour is projected to win just four.

ConstituencyPlaidReformLabourConservativeLib DemGŵyr Abertawe32100Sir Gaerfyrddin33000Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd22101Afan Ogwr Rhondda23100Ceredigion Penfro42000Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg22110Total (36 seats)1614411Projected seats by party across the six new Senedd constituencies covering south-west Wales. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Plaid Cymru is projected to take three seats, Reform UK two and Labour one. Plaid lead candidates Gwyn Williams, Safa Elhassan and John Davies would be elected, alongside Reform’s Francesca O’Brien and Steven Rodaway. Long-serving Swansea East Senedd Member Mike Hedges, who tops the Labour list, would be returned – but Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, ranked second, would not, leaving him to continue as council leader.

The picture is bleaker for Labour in Sir Gaerfyrddin. ITV Wales’ constituency analysis projects Plaid Cymru on 42% and Reform UK on 33%, with each party taking three seats. Plaid’s Cefin Campbell, Nerys Evans and former party leader Adam Price would all be elected. Labour’s Calum Higgins, who narrowly held the sixth seat in last month’s MRP, is wiped out – meaning the whole of Carmarthenshire returns no Labour Senedd Member for the first time since devolution.

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, covering Neath, Swansea East, the Swansea Valley and south Powys, the seats split four ways: Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Liberal Democrat 1. Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds holds her seat – the only Lib Dem MS projected anywhere in Wales. Plaid’s Sioned Williams would also return, while Labour’s Dr Mahaboob Basha would take the single Labour seat.

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Reform UK is projected to win three seats – its strongest projected performance anywhere in south-west Wales. Plaid take two and Labour one. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies, who tops the Labour list, would survive – but sitting Labour MSs Buffy Williams (Rhondda) and David Rees (Aberavon, currently the Senedd’s Deputy Presiding Officer), would both lose their seats.

In Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, the seats split between Plaid 2, Reform 2, Labour 1 and Conservative 1. Former Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies, who heads his party’s list, would return to the Senedd.

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid Cymru’s Elin Jones leads the list and would return to the Senedd alongside three other Plaid candidates. First Minister Eluned Morgan, Labour’s lead candidate in the constituency, is projected to lose her seat.

ConstituencyProjected to be electedProjected to lose seatGŵyr AbertaweMike Hedges (Lab)–Sir GaerfyrddinCefin Campbell (PC), Adam Price (PC)–Brycheiniog Tawe NeddJane Dodds (LD), Sioned Williams (PC)–Afan Ogwr RhonddaHuw Irranca-Davies (Lab)Buffy Williams (Lab), David Rees (Lab)Ceredigion PenfroElin Jones (PC)Eluned Morgan (Lab)Pen-y-bont Bro MorgannwgAndrew RT Davies (Con)–Sitting MSs whose fates are determined by the projection across south-west Wales. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

Nationally, the YouGov MRP puts Plaid Cymru on 33% (up four points from the previous YouGov poll), Reform UK on 29%, Labour on 12%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 8% and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

PartyVote shareChangeProjected seatsChangePlaid Cymru33%+443+7Reform UK29%no change34-3Welsh Labour12%-112no changeWelsh Conservatives9%+14+1Wales Green Party8%-22-5Welsh Liberal Democrats6%no change1no changeNational vote share and projected Senedd seats from the final YouGov MRP. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

Plaid would be six seats short of the 49 needed for an overall majority in the 96-member Senedd. The arithmetic of forming a government becomes the central question after Thursday. Every viable combination to reach 49 seats requires Labour’s involvement – either in formal coalition or by abstaining on a confidence vote.

CombinationTotal seatsMajority of 49?Plaid Cymru + Labour55Yes (+6)Plaid Cymru + Labour + Liberal Democrats56Yes (+7)Plaid Cymru + Labour + Greens57Yes (+8)Plaid Cymru + Greens + Liberal Democrats46No (-3)Plaid Cymru alone43No (-6)Reform UK + Conservatives38No (-11)Reform UK alone34No (-15)Possible routes to a 49-seat majority in the 96-member Senedd, based on the final YouGov MRP projection. Source: YouGov / ITV Wales / Cardiff University

Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, who carried out the seat modelling, said the broad shape of Thursday’s result was now “fairly clear” but that small swings could still produce significantly different totals. “Plaid Cymru go into election day on 33 percent with Reform on 29,” he said. “Plaid appear to have opened a small gap in the final days but this still remains an incredibly close race.”

The poll also asked respondents what was the single biggest factor influencing their vote. “Stopping Reform” was the top answer at 14%, followed by immigration at 10% – despite immigration being a matter reserved to Westminster rather than devolved to the Senedd. The motivation to stop Reform skewed sharply towards younger voters, with 27% of 16-to-24-year-olds citing it compared to just 6% of those aged 65 and over.

Polls open across Wales at 7am on Thursday and close at 10pm. It is the first Senedd election to be held under the new closed-list proportional representation system, with each of the 16 new constituencies returning six Senedd Members.

#ElunedMorganMS #JaneDoddsMS #PlaidCymru #ReformUK #SeneddElection2026 #WelshLabour #YouGov

SENEDD ELECTION: Race between Plaid and Reform on a knife-edge as two major new polls show Wales is heading for historic result

YouGov’s second MRP of the 2026 Senedd election shows a tight race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru
(Image: YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales, 6–15 April 2026)

Two major polls published this week have painted a remarkably consistent picture of where Wales stands with two weeks to go until the Senedd election: a historic race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, Labour in third place, and an outcome that nobody can predict with confidence.

The most detailed of the two is YouGov’s second MRP for ITV Cymru Wales, produced in partnership with Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre on a sample of 2,387 Welsh adults between April 6 and 15. It projects Reform UK on 37 seats and Plaid Cymru on 36 — a significant tightening since YouGov’s first MRP last month, when Plaid led by a wider margin. Both parties are tied on 29% of the vote in the latest YouGov model, with Labour on 13%, the Greens on 10%, Conservatives on 8%, and the Liberal Democrats on 6%.

YouGov’s second Senedd MRP shows Reform UK and Plaid Cymru neck-and-neck on vote share
(Image: YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales, 6–15 April 2026)

The Ipsos poll, published today and conducted between April 2 and 8 on a sample of 747 Welsh adults, puts Plaid Cymru at 30% and Reform UK at 25%, with Labour on 15%. Half of Welsh voters say they may yet change their minds — 52% — while Reform voters are the most committed, with just 32% saying they could switch compared to 53% of Plaid supporters.

That commitment gap is significant. Reform UK has been particularly effective at converting those who consider voting for them into firm intenders, with a conversion rate of 81%, while the Green Party has struggled to convert interest into voting intention at just 27%.

What it means for coalition arithmetic

Neither party is close to the 49 seats needed for a majority in the 96-member Senedd, meaning some form of co-operation between parties would be required to elect a First Minister.

According to YouGov’s second MRP, Plaid Cymru will require both Labour and the Greens for a majority
(Image: YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales, 6–15 April 2026)

Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre offered a telling observation about the race, saying that finishing first may matter less than it appears. “Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform,” he said.

Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has expressed a preference for forming a minority Plaid government, but would still need the assistance of Labour and either the Greens or the Lib Dems for a majority. Plaid and Labour together hold a majority in 47% of YouGov’s simulations.

Eluned Morgan’s seat

One of the most closely watched individual outcomes remains that of First Minister Eluned Morgan. The YouGov MRP projects that Morgan would not be returned to the Senedd — because on these figures Labour win no seats at all in Ceredigion Penfro, the constituency she is standing in. This directly contradicts the More in Common MRP we reported earlier this week, which suggested she would narrowly survive with Labour taking one of the six seats in Ceredigion Penfro. The two models agree that the outcome is on a knife-edge, but disagree on which side of the line she falls.

What the data says for our area

The raw constituency data from the YouGov MRP reveals some significant differences from the More in Common projections we reported earlier this week — particularly for Labour across south and west Wales.

In Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea), YouGov projects Reform UK winning on 29%, ahead of Plaid on 27% and Labour on 16%. The seat breakdown gives Reform 2, Plaid 2, Labour 1 and the Greens 1 — a notable difference from More in Common, which projected Labour taking 2 seats. On YouGov’s figures, a Green candidate would take the sixth seat at Labour’s expense.

In Sir Gaerfyrddin (Carmarthenshire), the picture is even starker for Labour. Plaid lead on 37% with Reform on 31% and Labour on just 10%. YouGov projects Plaid 3 and Reform 3 — with Labour taking no seats at all. More in Common had given Labour one seat in the constituency, which would have returned Calum Higgins as Labour’s lead candidate.

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, YouGov projects Reform winning on 30%, with Plaid on 25%, Labour 12% and the Lib Dems also on 12%. The seat split is Reform 2, Plaid 2, Labour 1, Lib Dems 1 — with the Conservatives projected to win no seats, in contrast to the More in Common MRP which gave them one.

In Ceredigion Penfro (Pembrokeshire), Plaid dominate on 38% with Reform on 27%. YouGov projects Plaid 3, Reform 2, Greens 1 — and no Labour seat, meaning Eluned Morgan would not be returned on these figures.

In Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg (Bridgend), Reform lead on 31%, Plaid on 25%, Labour on 15%. YouGov projects Reform 2, Plaid 2, Labour 1, Conservatives 1 — again one fewer Labour seat than More in Common projected.

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda (Neath Port Talbot), Reform lead strongly on 36%, Plaid on 29%, Labour on 17%. Both models agree here: Reform 3, Plaid 2, Labour 1 — meaning Huw Irranca-Davies as Deputy First Minister would narrowly hold his seat as Labour’s sole representative.

Lower and higher end seat estimates projected by YouGov’s second MRP of the 2026 Senedd election
(Image: YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales, 6–15 April 2026)

The Conservatives and smaller parties

The Welsh Conservatives are on 8% in the YouGov model and projected to return three members — but not including their leader Darren Millar on this round of results. The Greens are forecast to elect seven MSs, while the Lib Dems win only a single seat on the median projection — Jane Dodds in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd — leaving the party short of the five seats needed to form a political group in the Senedd.

The bigger picture

Both polls point to a result that would have been unthinkable at the last Senedd election in 2021. Had that election been conducted under the new electoral system, Plaid Cymru would have won 24 seats and Reform UK would have won none.

Reform UK, Plaid Cymru and the Greens set for gains in the 2026 Senedd election compared to notional 2021 results.
(Image: YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales, 6–15 April 2026)

The Ipsos research also highlights the wider public mood. Around 62% of Welsh adults disagree that the Welsh Labour Government deserves to be re-elected, and high dissatisfaction ratings attach to both Keir Starmer and Eluned Morgan. Rhun ap Iorwerth is the only party leader in Wales with a positive net satisfaction rating, though 59% of Welsh adults disagree that Reform UK is ready to form a government.

The picture across all recent polling is of a country that wants change but hasn’t yet settled on what form that change should take. The Wales-wide five-poll moving average currently puts Plaid Cymru on 28.6%, Reform UK on 26.8%, and Labour on 16.8%.

The Senedd election takes place on Thursday, May 7, 2026. For our full coverage of what the polls mean for every constituency in our area, see our More in Common MRP analysis.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

SENEDD ELECTION: Plaid on course to make history — who’s set to represent YOU on May 7?
Our More in Common MRP analysis with candidate-by-candidate projections for every constituency in our area.

Senedd Election 2026 — all our coverage
Full archive of Swansea Bay News reporting on the May 7 election.

Polling — all our coverage
Every poll we’ve reported on ahead of the Senedd election.

#ElunedMorganMS #MoreInCommon #PlaidCymru #polling #ReformUK #SeneddElection2026

SENEDD ELECTION: Plaid on course to make history as largest party — but here’s who’s actually set to represent YOU on May 7

Wales is heading for a political earthquake on May 7, according to the most detailed poll yet published ahead of the Senedd election.

Research group More in Common has released its first MRP — a sophisticated seat-by-seat modelling technique that goes far beyond standard polling — and the findings represent a dramatic moment in Welsh politics.

Plaid Cymru is projected to win 30 seats, making it the largest party in the 96-seat Senedd for the first time since devolution in 1999. Reform UK is close behind on 28, with Labour falling to just 24 — a historic collapse for a party that has governed Wales continuously for 27 years.

The Conservatives are forecast to hold seven seats, the Greens four, and the Liberal Democrats three.

Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common UK, said the scale of the shift was extraordinary. “Looking at Wales today, it’s hard to believe that the 2024 general election was less than two years ago — the political map has changed so dramatically since Labour won decisively in Wales,” he said.

“Having governed in Wales for 28 years, Labour is set to be pushed into third place — and for the first time we could see Wales led by a non-Labour First Minister. Plaid Cymru are the clear beneficiaries of a country ready for change, and could be on course to lead a Welsh government for the first time.”

The polling, carried out between January 30 and April 10 with a sample of 2,519 Welsh adults aged 16 and over, shows implied vote shares of 25% each for Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, 21% for Labour, 11% for the Conservatives, 10% for the Greens, and 7% for the Liberal Democrats. Independents and other candidates are polling at under 2% in most constituencies and are not projected to win any seats under this model.

Image: Senedd Implied Voting Intention bar chart — Source: More in Common, March and April 2026

It is the more conservative of two recent MRPs: a JL Partners poll for the Telegraph, published last week, put Plaid on 37 seats — a more commanding lead still.

Image: Wales constituency map showing projected winners — Source: More in Common, April 2026

What it means for your area — and who you’ll be voting for

Wales is using a closed list proportional representation system for the first time in this election, meaning voters choose a party rather than an individual candidate. Seats are then allocated in order from each party’s published list. That means we can say not just which parties are likely to win seats — but exactly who those winners are likely to be.

Gŵyr Abertawe (Swansea)

Reform UK’s Francesca O’BrienSwansea Council leader, Rob Stewart (Photo: Adam Davies)Plaid Cymru’s Gwyn Williams

The Swansea constituency is projected as a dead heat, with each of the top three parties taking two seats apiece on virtually identical vote shares.

Reform UK lead on 25%, ahead of Plaid Cymru on 24% and Labour on 22%. Both Reform UK candidates Francesca O’Brien — the Mumbles ward councillor who defected from the Welsh Conservatives to Reform UK last August, having previously served as the party’s deputy leader in Swansea — and Steven Rodaway would be elected. Labour’s two seats would go to former MS Mike Hedges and Swansea council leader Rob Stewart. Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan.

The Greens are on 10% and the Conservatives also on 10%, with neither projected to win a seat here.

Sir Gaerfyrddin (Carmarthenshire)

Plaid Cymru’s Cefin CampbellReform UK’s Gareth BeerWelsh Labour’s Calum Higgins

Plaid Cymru are dominant in Carmarthenshire, polling at 37% — well ahead of Reform UK on 26% and Labour on 21%.

That translates to three seats for Plaid: Cefin Campbell, Nerys Evans, and former party leader Adam Price would all be returned. Reform UK’s Gareth Beer and Carmelo Colasanto would take two seats, and Labour’s Calum Higgins would hold the sixth and final place.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd (Neath Port Talbot/Brecon)

James Evans speaking at a Reform UK event after confirming he has joined the party. (Image: Reform UK)Welsh Labour’s Dr. Mahaboob BashaPlaid Cymru’s Sioned Williams

This is the most fragmented constituency in our area, with six different parties projected to win one seat each — one of the most competitive contests in all of Wales.

Reform UK lead on 27%, with Labour on 21%, Plaid on 19%, the Liberal Democrats on 13%, the Conservatives on 11%, and the Greens on 10%. On those figures the elected members would be: Reform UK’s James Oswald David Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh; Labour’s Dr Mahaboob Basha; Plaid Cymru’s Sioned Williams MS; Liberal Democrats’ Jane Dodds MS; and Conservative Tyler John Chambers.

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg (Bridgend)

Reform UK’s Sarah Cooper-LesaddPlaid Cymru’s Mark HooperWelsh Labour’s Sarah Murphy

Bridgend mirrors the Swansea picture — a three-way tie with two seats each for Reform UK, Plaid Cymru, and Labour. Reform poll 27%, Plaid 24%, and Labour 24%.

Sarah Cooper-Lesadd and Gareth Thomas would be elected for Reform; Mark Hooper and Sarah Rees for Plaid; and Sarah Murphy and Huw John David for Labour.

Afan Ogwr Rhondda (Neath Port Talbot/Rhondda)

Reform UK’s Ben Hodge-McKennaPlaid Cymru’s Sera EvansWelsh Labour’s Huw Irranca Davies

This is Reform UK’s strongest projected result in our area. They lead on 36% — ahead of Plaid Cymru on 25% and Labour on 21% — and are projected to win three of the six seats.

Benjamin Hodge McKenna, Steve Bayliss, and Darren James would all be elected for Reform. Plaid’s Sera Evans and Alun Cox would take two seats, with Labour’s Huw Irranca-Davies — currently serving as Deputy First Minister — narrowly holding on with the sixth seat.

Ceredigion Penfro (Pembrokeshire)

Plaid Cymru’s Elin JonesWelsh Conservative’s Paul DaviesWelsh Labour’s Eluned Morgan

Plaid Cymru dominate Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion with 38% of the vote, projected to win three seats. The current Llywydd (Speaker) Elin Jones would top their list, followed by Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.

Reform UK’s Susan Claire Archibald would take one seat on 20%, and former Conservative Senedd leader Paul Windsor Davies would be returned for the Conservatives on 14%.

In a notable shift from some earlier polls, First Minister Eluned Morgan MS would retain her seat as Labour’s sole representative in the constituency on 14%. Previous MRP modelling had placed her seat at serious risk — this poll suggests she survives, though the margin remains tight.

A volatile result

Image: Chart showing how small changes in support could significantly alter seat totals — Source: More in Common, April 2026

More in Common highlight that the outcome remains fluid. Labour and Reform hold or contest the final seat in a large number of constituencies, meaning minor swings in support on polling day could shift the overall totals significantly either way.

What is beyond doubt is that Wales is heading for a result that would have been unthinkable even five years ago — a Senedd led by Plaid Cymru for the first time, with the party that barely existed in Welsh politics two years ago threatening to become the dominant force from Swansea to the Valleys.

More in Common’s full MRP data is available at moreincommon.org.uk. The Senedd election takes place on Thursday, May 7, 2026.

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SENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat
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PEMBROKESHIRE: Planning application lodged for 27 giant radar dishes at Brawdy as campaigners say Morgan’s intervention doesn’t go far enough

A planning application for the controversial Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability installation at Cawdor Barracks in Pembrokeshire has been formally submitted to Pembrokeshire County Council, as the project becomes one of the most politically charged issues of the Senedd election campaign.

The Ministry of Defence lodged the application on 23 March, following a statutory pre-application consultation period that ran from 23 February to 22 March 2026. Pembrokeshire County Council will now determine whether to grant planning permission for the scheme, which would see 27 radar dishes — each approximately 15 metres in diameter and 21 metres tall — installed at the former RAF Brawdy site.

The planning application arrived just weeks after First Minister Eluned Morgan sparked headlines by calling for the UK to halt its involvement in DARC, citing Donald Trump’s conduct and questioning whether the US remained a reliable partner. Morgan, who is also Welsh Labour’s lead Senedd candidate in the Ceredigion Penfro constituency where the site is located, stopped short of opposing the project outright — calling only for a pause while Trump remains in office.

Two dishes visible over rooftops and hedges from the village street. Gives a sense of how they’d look from a residential area.
Image: Ministry of Defence pre-application consultation report, March 2026

Anti-radar campaign group PARC Against DARC — Pembrokeshire Against Radar Campaign — responded on Thursday, welcoming Morgan’s intervention but saying her position fell far short of what was needed to stop the scheme.

A spokesperson for the campaign said the issue was “clearly in the minds of voters for the upcoming Senedd election” and may have been “reported back to Morgan from the doorsteps.” The campaigners said they feared Morgan could simply reverse her position if re-elected, and argued that calling for a pause was a far weaker stance than the outright opposition the project deserved.

Their response came with sharp words for Henry Tufnell, the Labour MP for Mid and South Pembrokeshire, who broke ranks with Morgan to defend the scheme and cited jobs for the local area as a key factor in his support.

The campaign said it was “absolutely unbelievable how out of touch Henry Tufnell is on the whole DARC debate,” and claimed the MOD’s Environmental Impact Assessment showed that direct local employment from the scheme would amount to a maximum of 20 permanent roles, with the remainder of the operational staff made up of US personnel.

However, the MOD’s own public consultation materials, distributed to around 2,390 households in the area in August 2024, stated that the scheme would bring a permanent presence of up to 100 UK military and civilian personnel to the site, along with up to 120 short-term construction jobs. The campaign disputes those figures, arguing the full EIA tells a different story about the proportion of roles that would go to local people.

Swansea Bay News has not independently verified the campaign’s interpretation of the EIA, and the MOD has not responded to their characterisation of the jobs figures.

The campaign also alleged that the public consultation on the scheme had not been properly publicised to local residents. However, documents from the MOD’s pre-application consultation report — submitted as part of the planning application — show that community newsletters were posted to 2,390 households via Royal Mail in August 2024, and that two public drop-in events held in Solva and St Davids in September 2024 drew more than 420 attendees, with 305 feedback forms returned. A further newsletter was distributed to an extended area when the statutory consultation opened in February 2026.

An MOD photomontage showing how the DARC radar array would appear from Trefgarn Owen. Image: Ministry of Defence pre-application consultation report, March 2026

The MOD’s consultation documents also include photomontages showing what the radar array would look like from locations around the site. Seen from the local road to Brawdy, several dishes are clearly visible above the hedgerow. From Trefgarn Owen to the north, the full array of dishes appears strung across the open skyline. From Penycwm village, dishes are visible above the rooftops.

The campaign alleged that the MOD’s EIA had confirmed the visual impact of the scheme would be adverse from the majority of assessed viewpoints, and substantially adverse from at least a fifth of them. Swansea Bay News has not independently reviewed the full EIA.

PARC Against DARC said it believed deep divisions had now opened within the Labour Party over the issue, and that Morgan’s intervention was a sign she was aware of the political risks heading into the May 7 election. However, the campaign also acknowledged what it described as Morgan’s bravery in publicly criticising Trump, noting his track record of targeting critics.

Both Plaid Cymru and the Wales Green Party have opposed DARC since the project was announced. A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said Morgan’s intervention was “nothing but a last-ditch attempt to cling on to her seat,” pointing out that the party had consistently called on the UK Government to prioritise rebuilding European ties in response to Trump’s foreign policy positions.

Plaid passed a motion formally opposing DARC at its annual conference in October 2024 and tabled a parliamentary motion in Westminster in March 2025. A Statement of Opinion tabled in the Senedd in January 2025 by Plaid MS Cefin Campbell attracted signatures from 15 members of the Welsh Parliament, including several Labour MSs — among them Cardiff North MS Julie Morgan, Swansea East MS Mike Hedges and Aberavon MS David Rees. The motion called on the Welsh Government to commission an authoritative independent impact assessment of the DARC scheme.

Wales Green Party leader Zak Polanski welcomed Morgan’s comments, writing on X that standing up to the US “must mean more than words,” and calling for closer ties with EU neighbours.

Downing Street has not changed its position. A spokesperson said this week that the DARC programme “will secure long-term jobs in Pembrokeshire and Wales, and help protect essential satellite communication.”

The Ceredigion Penfro constituency, which covers the Brawdy area, is expected to be among the more competitive seats on 7 May, with Plaid Cymru fielding a strong candidate against Morgan.

PARC Against DARC is urging people to vote for parties opposed to the project at the Senedd election. More information, including the campaign’s consultation response and lobbying resources, is available at parcagainstdarc.com.

As Swansea Bay News reported yesterday, the DARC programme is designed to detect and track objects in deep space up to 36,000km from Earth, forming part of a three-nation network alongside installations in the US and Australia.

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Welsh first minister calls for halt to Pembrokeshire space radar project over Trump’s “contempt for our country”
Eluned Morgan said the US under Trump was no longer the reliable partner it once was.

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Cawdor Barracks in Brawdy was confirmed as the UK’s preferred location for the DARC installation in 2023.

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Welsh first minister calls for halt to Pembrokeshire space radar project over Trump’s “contempt for our country”

Morgan, who is also Welsh Labour leader and the party’s lead Senedd candidate in the Ceredigion Penfro constituency where the site is located, made the intervention in a Facebook video ahead of the Senedd election on 7 May.

The Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability (DARC) programme — announced jointly by the UK, US and Australia in 2023 — would see 27 radar dishes installed at Cawdor Barracks in Brawdy, with the site becoming the UK’s main contribution to the international scheme. As Swansea Bay News previously reported, the project was expected to create up to 100 long-term jobs and keep the barracks open beyond its planned closure date of 2028.

Morgan said the project should be “halted,” adding that the United States under Trump was “not the partner it once was.” She said talk of targeting civilians, undermining allies and diminishing the sacrifices of armed forces personnel was “not the conduct of a reliable ally.”

She drew a distinction between standing with partners and “giving a free pass to a US president who has threatened war crimes and shown contempt for our country,” and said the UK should pause its involvement in the radar project “until we can be confident those partnerships reflect our values and our security interests.”

Welsh Labour leader and First Minister Eluned Morgan speaks at the party’s conference lectern. Credit: Welsh Labour

Her intervention immediately drew criticism from across the political spectrum. Plaid Cymru accused Morgan of making a “last ditch attempt” to save her Senedd seat, while Reform said she was trying to distract from her record in government.

The Welsh Conservatives went further, alleging that Morgan was willing to put the UK’s national security at risk. Henry Tufnell, the Labour MP for Mid and South Pembrokeshire, also broke ranks, saying he was concerned that Morgan apparently did not want the jobs the scheme had promised for the area.

Downing Street declined to say whether the prime minister agreed with the first minister’s position. A No 10 spokesperson said the programme “will secure long-term jobs in Pembrokeshire and Wales, and help protect essential satellite communication.”

The Ministry of Defence has been progressing plans to refurbish an airfield at Cawdor Barracks to house the UK’s DARC infrastructure. The scheme has faced opposition from local campaigners, who have raised concerns about its proximity to the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park.

The campaign group PARC Against DARC, which launched in May 2024, has been at the forefront of local opposition. The group — which counts CND, Stop the War Coalition and Extinction Rebellion UK among its national supporters — has raised concerns about the visual impact of 27 large radar dishes on the Pembrokeshire coastline, potential health risks from radiofrequency signals, and damage to tourism in an area that includes the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park.

A petition against the plans gathered more than 16,000 signatures, and the campaign has drawn significant cross-party political backing — with Plaid Cymru voting unanimously at its 2024 conference to officially oppose DARC, and an Early Day Motion tabled in Westminster attracting cross-party support.

The campaign also draws a direct parallel with a successful predecessor. Pembrokeshire Against Radar Campaign — known as PARC — was formed in 1990 to oppose a proposed over-the-horizon radar installation on the Dewisland peninsula. After 2,000 people marched from St Davids Cathedral to the proposed site, the Conservative government cancelled the project in 1991. Some of the original PARC campaigners are now active in the new fight against DARC.

The group has also specifically targeted Henry Tufnell over his silence on the issue, accusing the Mid and South Pembrokeshire MP of ignoring hundreds — possibly thousands — of constituent emails on the subject. That makes his public criticism of Morgan’s position all the more striking: having said nothing while his constituents demanded answers, Tufnell chose the first minister’s intervention as the moment to speak up — in defence of the scheme.

The DARC programme is designed to detect and track objects in deep space up to 22,000 miles from Earth, operating as a global network of three ground-based radar systems run jointly by the UK, US and Australia. The unique geographic spread of the three nations was cited as key to providing continuous global coverage, including the ability to detect potential threats to defence and civilian space systems.

Morgan’s comments place her at odds not only with opposition parties but with her own Labour colleagues in Westminster, creating an unusual internal divide just weeks before the Welsh Parliament election.

The Ceredigion Penfro seat, which covers the area around Brawdy and Cawdor Barracks, is expected to be one of the more competitive constituencies on 7 May, with Plaid Cymru also fielding a strong candidate in the area.

The UK government has not indicated any intention to pause or review the DARC project. No formal response has been issued by the Ministry of Defence to Morgan’s comments.

Whether Morgan’s intervention resonates with local voters — who were promised significant economic benefits from the scheme — or is seen as a political gamble in a tight election race, remains to be seen.

What is clear is that a project announced with cross-party support as a landmark moment for Pembrokeshire’s defence economy has now become one of the most politically charged issues of the Welsh election campaign.

#Brawdy #CawdorBarracks #CeredigionPenfro #DARC #DonaldTrump #ElunedMorganMS #Pembrokeshire #spaceRadar #WelshLabour

SENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat

A major new YouGov poll has sent shockwaves through Welsh politics — with projections suggesting the First Minister could lose her seat and Labour suffer heavy losses across west Wales.

The YouGov poll, using detailed constituency modelling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, points to a Senedd transformed — with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party and Reform UK surging into second place.

Wales-wide picture: Plaid on top as Senedd expands

Across Wales, the poll suggests a dramatic shift in power as the Senedd prepares to expand from 60 to 96 members under a new electoral system.

Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 seats, making it the largest party but still short of an overall majority.

Reform UK is forecast to take 30 seats — a huge leap for a party that has never fought a Senedd election before.

Labour is projected to fall to just 12 seats, with the Greens on 10, while the Conservatives collapse to a single MS and the Liberal Democrats fail to win any representation.

The key number is 49 — the threshold needed for a majority in the new Senedd.

Under these projections, Plaid Cymru and the Greens together would hold 53 seats, enough to form a government without Labour.

Analysts say the results point to a fragmented but firmly left-leaning Senedd — with Plaid in the strongest position to lead the next government.

Mike Hedges is projected to retain his seatSwansea Council leader, Rob Stewart looks like missing out on a Senedd seat

Gŵyr Abertawe: big names miss out

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Labour would return incumbent MS Mike Hedges, who tops the party’s list.

But there would be no seat for Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, who sits second — despite his high-profile role in recent national debates.

Reform UK would secure two seats, meaning former Conservative-turned-Reform councillor Francesca O’Brien would be elected alongside Steven Rodaway.

Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, while West Cross councillor Chris Evans would take a seat for the Greens.

Adam Price looks like he’s set to remain in the Senedd, despite placing third on Plaid’s party list (Image: Plaid Cymru)

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid dominance, Labour wiped out

In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid Cymru is projected to dominate with four seats — returning Cefin Campbell, former Assembly Member Nerys Evans, ex-party leader Adam Price and Mari Arthur.

Reform would take the remaining two seats, with Gareth Beer — who came close to winning Llanelli at the last general election — joined by Carmelo Colasanto.

Labour is not projected to win a single seat in the constituency.

Welsh Lib Dem leader, Jane Dodds could be on the way out, with the party projected to not pick up a single seat

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: four-way split

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, the result is finely balanced across four parties.

Plaid would return Sioned Williams and Rebeca Phillips, while Reform would elect James Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh.

Labour would hold onto one seat through Mahaboob Basha BEM — as previously reported when he topped Labour’s list for the area — while Neath Port Talbot councillor Nathan Goldup John would take a seat for the Greens.

The result would see Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds miss out on a seat in the constituency.

Deputy First Minister, Huw Irranca Davies looks likely to save his seatBuffy Williams looks set to miss out however

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Labour heartland shaken

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Plaid is projected to take three seats, with Sera Evans, Alun Geraint Cox and Elyn Stephens all elected.

Reform would secure two seats through Benjamin McKenna and Sarah Cooper Lesard.

Labour would be reduced to a single representative — Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies — with current Rhondda MS Buffy Williams losing her place.

The result signals a major shift in one of Labour’s traditional strongholds.

Eluned MorganSamuel KurtzPaul DaviesBig names on the way out

Ceredigion Penfro: First Minister loses seat

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid would again lead with three seats, returning Elin Jones alongside Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.

Reform would take two seats through Susan Claire Archibald and Paul Marr, while Amy Nicholass would be elected for the Greens.

Crucially, Labour is not projected to win any representation here — meaning First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.

The constituency would also see senior Conservatives Paul Davies and Samuel Kurtz both miss out.

Big picture: political map redrawn

Across west Wales, the projections point to a dramatic political shift — with Reform UK emerging as a major force and traditional parties losing ground.

Despite the upheaval, Plaid Cymru remains the dominant party across every constituency in the region.

For voters, the implications are significant — from who represents their communities to how decisions are made on key issues like healthcare, transport and the cost of living.

With the election approaching, these results suggest one thing above all else — the political landscape in west Wales is changing fast.

And for some of Wales’ biggest political names, this could mark the end of the road.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake
Earlier polling pointed to major shifts now playing out across west Wales.

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South west Wales is emerging as crucial to the outcome of the election.

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PENLAN: Selfies and fish and chips – First Minister’s ‘off-script’ surprise visit to Swansea social club

The Welsh leader made an unannounced appearance at the Penlan Social Club, catching supporters and staff off guard in a “no airs and graces” visit.

Organisers admit the night went “slightly off script” when the First Minister was found in a huddle with young people in the bar, posing for photos before her formal speech.

Ms Morgan arrived quietly and without fanfare, joining more than 80 people gathered for the launch of Welsh Labour’s new Gwyr Abertawe candidates.

Alison Martin, Club Secretary of Penlan Social Club, said: “Our regulars had no idea she was coming and were delighted to have the First Minister posing for photos in the bar.”

She added: “It’s not every day the First Minister drops in for a fish and chip supper and we’re very proud to have been part of such a special evening.”

Eluned Morgan with Alison Martin, Club Secretary and regulars at Penlan Social Club. Credit: Alison Martin

The First Minister used the visit to set out her party’s election pledges ahead of the Senedd vote on May 7, promising a “new chapter” for Wales.

The evening also marked a changing of the guard for Swansea, with Ms Morgan paying tribute to long-serving MSs Julie James and Rebecca Evans, who are both standing down.

The new candidate list for the region is led by Mike Hedges MS, followed by Swansea Council Leader Rob Stewart, who has spearheaded the city’s regeneration.

Eluned Morgan arriving with Party Fundraiser, Kirstie Logan-Townshend Credit: Jennifer Ann PhotographyEluned takes to the stage, credit: Jennifer Ann Photography
Eluned photographed with the Senedd candidates, credit: Jennifer Ann Photography L-R Rebecca Fogarty, Mike Hedges, Eluned Morgan, Rebecca Francis- Davies, Rob Stewart, Patience Bentu

In a move that delighted the room, Ms Morgan stayed on after the formal speeches to enjoy a supper of fish and chips supplied by local Swansea chip shop, Roma.

She also took time to meet local business owners, including Nicky Romanello from the popular chippy, who had supported the event.

The First Minister’s unannounced stop in Penlan is seen as a key moment in the lead-up to the May elections, as parties begin to ramp up their local campaigns.

#CllrRobStewart #ElunedMorgan #ElunedMorganMS #MikeHedges #Penlan #PenlanSocialClub #RobStewart #SeneddElection #Swansea #WelshLabour

Welsh Labour’s £4bn election pledge could revive controversial new Whitland or St Clears hospital plan

The commitment was made in the party’s manifesto pledges for the forthcoming Senedd elections, launched by Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan in Newport.

The press release states that the new £4bn “Hospitals for the Future Fund” would, over the next 10 years, fund a “hospital development in West Wales” alongside the replacement of the University Hospital of Wales in Cardiff and the redevelopment of Wrexham Maelor Hospital.

This appears to refer to Hywel Dda University Health Board’s long-standing and controversial proposal for a new Urgent and Planned Care Hospital to be built near St Clears or Whitland in Carmarthenshire.

Those plans would see key services, including accident and emergency, removed from Glangwili Hospital in Carmarthen and Withybush Hospital in Haverfordwest, which would be downgraded to community hospitals.

Campaigners and local politicians have repeatedly raised concerns about the impact on residents in areas like Llanelli and Ammanford, who would face significantly longer journeys for emergency treatment.

Last year, Swansea Bay News reported that the new-build plan had been pushed back by at least a decade, with Hywel Dda’s chief executive saying he was making a “strong case” to the Welsh Government for immediate investment in existing sites instead.

The inclusion of a “hospital development in West Wales” in Welsh Labour’s flagship election pledge suggests the new-build plan is now firmly back on the agenda if the party wins the election.

In her speech, Eluned Morgan said: “The NHS is not just a service. It’s a promise. And we need to renew that promise. Not with slogans, but with the biggest investment programme in our history. So, we are committing £4 billion to build the Hospitals of the Future.”

She added: “Patients deserve hospitals fit for modern medicine, not more make-do and mend. Staff deserve a working environment that matches their skill and dedication. And Wales deserves an NHS built for the future, not held together by goodwill alone.”

The health board has previously argued that a new, purpose-built hospital would allow it to meet modern healthcare standards, attract staff, and provide more specialist services than are currently available across its existing sites.

Welsh Labour was contacted for clarification on whether the pledge refers specifically to the Hywel Dda new-build proposal.

#ElunedMorganMS #GlangwiliHospital #HywelDdaUniversityHealthBoard #newHospital #PrincePhilipHospital #StClears #WelshLabour #Whitland #WithybushHospital