SENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat

A major new YouGov poll has sent shockwaves through Welsh politics — with projections suggesting the First Minister could lose her seat and Labour suffer heavy losses across west Wales.

The YouGov poll, using detailed constituency modelling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, points to a Senedd transformed — with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party and Reform UK surging into second place.

Wales-wide picture: Plaid on top as Senedd expands

Across Wales, the poll suggests a dramatic shift in power as the Senedd prepares to expand from 60 to 96 members under a new electoral system.

Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 seats, making it the largest party but still short of an overall majority.

Reform UK is forecast to take 30 seats — a huge leap for a party that has never fought a Senedd election before.

Labour is projected to fall to just 12 seats, with the Greens on 10, while the Conservatives collapse to a single MS and the Liberal Democrats fail to win any representation.

The key number is 49 — the threshold needed for a majority in the new Senedd.

Under these projections, Plaid Cymru and the Greens together would hold 53 seats, enough to form a government without Labour.

Analysts say the results point to a fragmented but firmly left-leaning Senedd — with Plaid in the strongest position to lead the next government.

Gŵyr Abertawe: big names miss out

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Labour would return incumbent MS Mike Hedges, who tops the party’s list.

But there would be no seat for Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, who sits second — despite his high-profile role in recent national debates.

Reform UK would secure two seats, meaning former Conservative-turned-Reform councillor Francesca O’Brien would be elected alongside Steven Rodaway.

Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, while West Cross councillor Chris Evans would take a seat for the Greens.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid dominance, Labour wiped out

In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid Cymru is projected to dominate with four seats — returning Cefin Campbell, former Assembly Member Nerys Evans, ex-party leader Adam Price and Mari Arthur.

Reform would take the remaining two seats, with Gareth Beer — who came close to winning Llanelli at the last general election — joined by Carmelo Colasanto.

Labour is not projected to win a single seat in the constituency.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: four-way split

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, the result is finely balanced across four parties.

Plaid would return Sioned Williams and Rebeca Phillips, while Reform would elect James Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh.

Labour would hold onto one seat through Mahaboob Basha BEM — as previously reported when he topped Labour’s list for the area — while Neath Port Talbot councillor Nathan Goldup John would take a seat for the Greens.

The result would see Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds miss out on a seat in the constituency.

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Labour heartland shaken

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Plaid is projected to take three seats, with Sera Evans, Alun Geraint Cox and Elyn Stephens all elected.

Reform would secure two seats through Benjamin McKenna and Sarah Cooper Lesard.

Labour would be reduced to a single representative — Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies — with current Rhondda MS Buffy Williams losing her place.

The result signals a major shift in one of Labour’s traditional strongholds.

Ceredigion Penfro: First Minister loses seat

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid would again lead with three seats, returning Elin Jones alongside Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.

Reform would take two seats through Susan Claire Archibald and Paul Marr, while Amy Nicholass would be elected for the Greens.

Crucially, Labour is not projected to win any representation here — meaning First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.

The constituency would also see senior Conservatives Paul Davies and Samuel Kurtz both miss out.

Big picture: political map redrawn

Across west Wales, the projections point to a dramatic political shift — with Reform UK emerging as a major force and traditional parties losing ground.

Despite the upheaval, Plaid Cymru remains the dominant party across every constituency in the region.

For voters, the implications are significant — from who represents their communities to how decisions are made on key issues like healthcare, transport and the cost of living.

With the election approaching, these results suggest one thing above all else — the political landscape in west Wales is changing fast.

And for some of Wales’ biggest political names, this could mark the end of the road.

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Chicken from China and Thailand served in school dinners as Welsh farmers ‘cut out of the system’

A major investigation by the Countryside Alliance has exposed how councils across Wales are relying on frozen chicken shipped thousands of miles around the world, even in rural areas surrounded by farms and food producers.

The data shows that Swansea Council sourced just 2.33% of its school‑meal chicken from the UK. The rest came from the EU and from China, Thailand and Brazil — with 31.96% imported from outside Europe.

Carmarthenshire Council admitted using frozen chicken from outside the EU but refused to say how much or from which countries. Pembrokeshire Council also declined to provide percentages, saying only that it used “some” UK and EU chicken.

Neath Port Talbot Council did not respond at all.

Bridgend was one of only two councils in Wales able to confirm that 100% of its chicken came from the UK.

The Countryside Alliance said the findings show a “systemic failure” to support Welsh farmers, with procurement rules and large contracts favouring cheap imports over local produce.

Across Wales, the worst figures were recorded in Merthyr Tydfil, where 99.35% of chicken served to pupils came from China and Thailand. Conwy reported 94% from Thailand and Brazil. Gwynedd — a predominantly rural county — reported 87.62% from Brazil, Thailand and China.

The report also revealed that not one council in Wales could say what proportion of its school‑meal chicken was actually Welsh.

The figures have caused uproar among farming families.

Hefin Jones, a father of three and a farmer in Conwy, said he was “deeply disappointed and frustrated” to learn that 94% of the chicken used in his local schools came from Thailand and Brazil.

“As parents we do our best to feed our kids nutritious healthy food, while our council disrespects the health and safety of our kids,” he said.

The Countryside Alliance said the situation made no sense in a country that prides itself on high food standards and strong farming communities.

Rachel Evans, Director of Countryside Alliance Wales, said:

“As a mother and a farmer, I’m shocked and disappointed. When we have such high‑quality Welsh and British produce, so much of the chicken our children are eating is being shipped in from the other side of the world.”

She said the Welsh Government’s own sustainability policies were being undermined by public bodies serving imported chicken “flown or shipped in from as far away as Thailand, China and Brazil”.

The Alliance said procurement rules were stacked against Welsh farmers, with councils tied into large contracts that favour cheap imports over local produce. It also warned that many councils could not trace where their chicken came from, calling the lack of transparency “deeply concerning”.

The Welsh Local Government Association defended councils, saying imported chicken was sometimes used because of cost pressures and availability, and insisted all chicken must meet UK food safety standards.

The Welsh Government said it was working with councils and suppliers to shorten supply chains and increase the use of Welsh food in schools.

But the issue has now erupted into a political row, with the Welsh Conservatives accusing Plaid Cymru and Labour of presiding over a system that imports chicken from thousands of miles away while Welsh farmers struggle.

Welsh Conservative Shadow Education Secretary Natasha Asghar MS said:

“Food for our children should be sourced within Wales wherever possible. Local authorities should be supporting Welsh farmers and producers, not shipping frozen chicken halfway around the world.”

She said the current approach “undermines food security” and raised questions about value for money and standards.

Welsh Conservative Shadow Rural Affairs Secretary Samuel Kurtz MS said:

“Welsh farmers are being undercut here. Plaid and Labour are importing frozen chicken from thousands of miles away while Reform would prioritise chlorinated chicken from the US. Using locally sourced Welsh produce would strengthen farm incomes, support rural jobs and shorten supply chains.”

The Countryside Alliance is now calling for urgent reform of school‑meal procurement, including mandatory reporting on where food comes from and new rules that allow councils to prioritise Welsh and British produce.

No plans to use Castlemartin camp for asylum accommodation, says Home Office

Local concerns over defence and services

Samuel Kurtz MS wrote to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood MP seeking urgent assurances after reports suggested the west Wales military site could be used for accommodation. He also raised the issue directly with Welsh Ministers in the Senedd, who confirmed the Welsh Government has had “no contact” with Westminster regarding any such proposals.

In his letter, Mr Kurtz warned that any move to repurpose Castlemartin would have serious implications for national defence and local services:

“Castlemartin is one of the United Kingdom’s few facilities capable of hosting live firing exercises at battlegroup level. It provides vital training for our armed forces, and any restriction on its use would represent a serious loss of national defence capability at a critical time.”

He also questioned the suitability of the location for residential use, citing limited infrastructure and stretched health services.

UK Government rules out immediate plans

A Home Office spokesperson responded to the concerns with a short statement:

“There are no current plans to use the site.”

The confirmation has eased fears locally, though campaigners and representatives continue to press for clarity on future use of military and public land in Pembrokeshire.

Penally precedent still fresh in memory

Pembrokeshire has previously seen military facilities repurposed for asylum seekers. Penally Camp, near Tenby, became the centre of controversy between October 2020 and March 2021 when it housed up to 250 asylum seekers.

Swansea Bay News reported at the time that then Welsh Secretary Simon Hart MP confirmed the camp would close by March 2021, following months of protests and criticism of living conditions. Inspectors highlighted serious shortcomings, prompting the Police and Crime Commissioner to call for its immediate closure. A subsequent panel also sought answers over the costs of running the facility.

The camp was eventually handed back to the Ministry of Defence and closed in late 2022.

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ONS figures show Wales unemployment at highest level since 2015

A sharp rise that puts thousands out of work

The ONS labour market release for September 2025 shows unemployment in Wales climbing from 4.9% in August to 5.7%, meaning around 88,000 people are now out of work.

Employment has also slipped. Just over 70% of working‑age adults in Wales are in jobs, compared with a UK average of 75%. The Welsh Government’s own overview confirms Wales has the lowest employment rate of any UK nation.

One in four adults missing from the workforce

The figures also show Wales continues to have the highest economic inactivity rate in Great Britain. Nearly one in four adults of working age — around 482,000 people — are not working and not looking for work.

The ONS bulletin cautioned that while quarterly changes may not be statistically significant, the overall trend shows Wales lagging behind the UK average in both employment and inactivity.

An economy built on public services and shops

The ONS breakdown of jobs by sector shows where the pressure is falling.

Health and social care remains Wales’ biggest employer with more than 430,000 jobs, followed by education with 220,000. Retail still accounts for around 355,000 jobs, but manufacturing has slipped to 195,000 and construction to 158,000.

Hospitality employs about 247,000, a sector that grew after the pandemic but is now vulnerable as households cut back on spending. Transport and storage jobs remain steady at around 124,000, while professional and technical services employ about 221,000 — far fewer than in regions with stronger private‑sector growth.

The figures underline Wales’ reliance on public services and consumer‑facing industries, leaving the economy exposed when budgets tighten or demand falls.

Political blame game meets expert warnings

The figures have sparked a political row.

Samuel Kurtz MS, Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Energy, said: “Unemployment is at crisis levels in Wales after 26 years of anti‑business Labour, propped up by Plaid and compounded by Rachel Reeves’ economic mismanagement. Unemployment levels didn’t even hit these heights during the pandemic.”

He called for tax cuts and business rate reductions to help high streets and encourage growth.

Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster Spokesperson David Chadwick MP said: “Surely the writing is on the wall now for the Chancellor’s jobs tax.

“Everyone except Rachel Reeves seems to have woken up to the fact that forcing small businesses to pay more in tax for giving people jobs would damage job opportunities. Now the proof is staring her in the face.

“The UK Labour Government must reverse their damaging National Insurance hike at the Budget, and commit to saving the small businesses that employ thousands in Wales and are at risk of collapse, if they’re to have any hope of reversing today’s concerning trend.”

Experts have also warned of wider risks. Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, told Sky News the rise in unemployment “shows the labour market is loosening faster than expected” and said households would feel the squeeze as job security weakens.

Paul Nowak, General Secretary of the TUC, told the Guardian the government must act to protect jobs and invest in skills, warning that “otherwise communities will be left behind.”

And Ruth Gregory, Deputy Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, told the Financial Times the figures “reinforce the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner rather than later.”

What it means for families and communities

For ordinary people, the statistics translate into fewer job opportunities, more competition for vacancies, and greater uncertainty heading into winter. Families may find it harder to budget, while communities could see more pressure on public services and local shops.

Economists warn that unless Wales can attract more private‑sector investment and reduce inactivity, the gap with the rest of the UK will continue to grow.

#Business #Economy #employment #OfficeForNationalStatistics #ONS #SamuelKurtzMS #unemployment #WelshConservatives #WelshGovernment

Row over £38m cut to Welsh funding under new Local Growth scheme

First Minister admits settlement is “slightly smaller”

The Welsh Government confirmed it will launch a consultation later this month to decide how the money is spent. Ministers in Cardiff say the fund will be used to support skills, help businesses in key sectors such as health and AI, and tackle barriers to growth.

First Minister Eluned Morgan said the settlement represented around 22% of the UK‑wide fund and pledged it would “reach all parts of Wales”. She admitted, however, that the package was “slightly smaller” than the previous scheme, adding: “Let’s remember, we always knew there was a price to pay for Brexit.”

UK Government Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens said decisions about spending were “best made by people in Wales” and stressed that ministers in London were working with Cardiff to deliver growth and opportunity.

Kurtz: “Wales was promised more, not less”

Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Energy, Samuel Kurtz MS, said the change represented a broken promise to Wales.

“Under Labour, Wales was promised more funding, not tens of millions of pounds less,” he said.

“The Welsh Labour Government getting to hold the purse strings does not fill me with hope, as they routinely waste taxpayers’ money on vanity projects like the creation of more politicians or on non‑devolved areas like their pointless overseas embassies and Ugandan tree planting.

“This funding should be used to support struggling Welsh businesses who have had to contend with Labour Governments at both ends of the M4 hitting them with higher taxes.”

Plaid Cymru and Reform also weigh in

Plaid Cymru’s economy spokesperson Luke Fletcher MS said the new fund only “notionally” replaced the EU structural funds Wales lost after Brexit, warning that £500m over three years “falls far short of what’s required to tackle decades of underinvestment and deep‑rooted deprivation.”

A Reform UK Wales spokesperson also criticised the settlement, claiming Labour and Plaid Cymru were responsible for the poor state of the Welsh economy.

From EU billions to a smaller UK pot

Large parts of Wales qualified for EU structural funds during Britain’s membership, receiving around £375m a year. That support was replaced by the Shared Prosperity Fund, worth £585m over three years, but structured without direct Welsh Government control.

The new Local Growth Fund replaces that scheme, with a framework now agreed between the Labour UK Government and ministers in Cardiff. The £547m allocation will be split between capital spending on infrastructure and revenue for services, though the exact balance has not yet been confirmed.

The announcement comes ahead of the Welsh Government’s draft budget, due to be published on Tuesday. Ministers will need to secure support from another party in the Senedd to pass it early next year.

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Senedd rejects call for final vote on farming support scheme

Senedd members have narrowly voted against a proposal to hold a final, binding vote on the Welsh Government’s controversial Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS), despite widespread calls for greater scrutiny and democratic legitimacy.

The motion—tabled by Welsh Conservative MS Samuel Kurtz, shadow secretary for economy, energy and rural affairs—was defeated by 22 votes to 20 in the final session before the summer recess. It called for the Senedd to formally approve the scheme before its implementation in January 2026, citing concerns over transparency, trust, and the future of Welsh agriculture.

“A scheme of this scale, affecting over 80% of Wales’ land, must carry democratic legitimacy,” Kurtz told the chamber. “Let us vote. Let the elected members of this chamber, from every corner of Wales and from every party, have their say.”

Farming unions back scrutiny

The motion was backed by Plaid Cymru and supported by both NFU Cymru and the Farmers’ Union of Wales, who described the SFS as a “once-in-a-generation change” that demands full Senedd scrutiny.

NFU Cymru President Aled Jones said Welsh farming underpins a food sector worth £9.3 billion, employs nearly 50,000 people directly, and supports 230,000 jobs across the supply chain. He warned that the transition from the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) to the SFS could have significant economic consequences.

“For every £1 of public money invested through the BPS, £9 is returned to the Welsh economy,” Jones said. “The SFS must work for all farming sectors and areas of Wales and help ensure that Welsh farming can continue to underpin our rural communities, language and culture.”

FUW President Ian Rickman echoed those concerns, calling the scheme a “generational milestone” and urging ministers to ensure it is workable for family farms across Wales.

Welsh Government defends revised plans

Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies, who now leads on climate change and rural affairs, defended the scheme as the product of “extensive collaboration” following years of consultation and protest. He confirmed that Senedd members will have the opportunity to vote on regulations related to payment rates later this year.

“You can have your say then,” he said. “If you want to force more delay, if you want to force more uncertainty on the farming community, good luck to you—because they will not thank you.”

The revised scheme drops the previous requirement for 10% tree cover on every farm, a proposal that sparked mass protests and led to 5,500 pairs of wellies being placed on the steps of the Senedd last year. The Welsh Government now aims to plant 17,000 hectares by 2030, with enhanced payments for early adopters and flexibility on productive land.

Former rural affairs minister Lesley Griffiths said the scheme must deliver “public goods for public money,” including improved soil health, woodland management, and biodiversity outcomes.

Transparency and food security concerns

As previously reported by Swansea Bay News, the final version of the SFS was unveiled earlier this month amid calls for greater transparency and assurances around food security. Farming leaders warned that the scheme’s emphasis on environmental outcomes must not come at the expense of food production or economic viability.

The Welsh Government has argued that the SFS represents a “radical shift” away from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, tailored to Welsh needs. But critics say the scheme mirrors England’s Environmental Land Management model and risks placing “an inherent weakness at the heart of future policies.”

“We firmly believe that public goods are only a part of the picture,” said FUW President Glyn Roberts. “A more imaginative Welsh way forward should be forged.”

Plaid Cymru’s Llŷr Gruffydd has also warned that removing basic income support could push family farms “off a cliff without a safety net,” while uncertainty around trade, budget levels, and cheap imports continues to cloud the sector’s future.

Political tensions rise

The debate also exposed deepening divisions between the Welsh Government and farming unions. Labour MS Lee Waters accused some union leaders of amplifying grievance narratives and said the sector had been drawn into “culture wars.”

“I’ve stopped attending union meetings on farms,” Waters said. “The farming unions are the only groups I’ve come across who think effective engagement involves inviting a local representative to meet a group of men to be shouted at.”

Waters also warned that Brexit had left Wales with £1 billion less in funding, and that farming support must now compete with health and education within the Welsh budget.

“I’m not sure how people who voted for Wales to get less money now argue that we should spend even more on farming support. This is unserious.”

What’s next?

The Welsh Government says the SFS will be implemented in January 2026, replacing the BPS, which will be phased out by 2029. Farmers who do not join the SFS will see their BPS payments cut by 40% next year, prompting warnings of a “cliff-edge” for rural businesses.

Opposition parties say the lack of a full economic impact assessment and long-term funding clarity risks undermining confidence in the scheme. Kurtz described the current approach as a “blind leap of faith” and said trust between Labour and the agricultural sector is at an all-time low.

“Labour have simply rebranded a bad policy and hoped farmers wouldn’t notice,” he said. “By voting against our call for a binding Senedd vote, they’ve ignored an opportunity to rebuild trust.”

The next phase of the scheme will be subject to regulatory votes in the autumn, but calls for a broader debate on the future of Welsh farming are unlikely to fade.

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Welsh Government unveils final Sustainable Farming Scheme amid calls for transparency and food security

The Welsh Government has published the final version of its long-awaited Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS), marking what the Farmers’ Union of Wales (FUW) describes as a “generational milestone” for Welsh agriculture. But while the scheme aims to reshape farm support from 2026 onwards, it has also sparked criticism from opposition parties and farming leaders over funding clarity, food production targets, and the absence of an updated economic impact assessment.

The SFS will replace the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS), which has underpinned Welsh farm incomes for decades. Structured around Universal, Optional and Collaborative layers, the new scheme is designed to reward sustainable land management, biodiversity, and climate resilience, while offering flexibility for farmers to tailor their participation.

FUW: “A milestone, but not without concerns”

FUW President Ian Rickman welcomed the publication, noting that the union had invested over 300 hours of negotiations with Welsh Government officials in the past year alone. He said the scheme reflects years of lobbying and consultation since the initial Brexit and Our Land proposals in 2018.

Among the union’s key achievements are:

• A £238 million budget for the Universal Baseline Payment and BPS taper in 2026
• Retention of capped and redistributive payments to support typical Welsh family farms
• Reduction of Universal Actions from 17 to 12, with added flexibility
• Removal of the 10% tree cover rule, which had sparked widespread protests

However, Rickman acknowledged that the scheme is “not perfect.” He flagged concerns over the 10% habitat management requirement, the ambition to plant 17,000 hectares of trees by 2030, and the shorter BPS transition, which now falls to 60% in 2026, reducing by 20% annually thereafter.

“We urge all Welsh farmers to consider the Scheme requirements and payment rates in the context of your own businesses,” Rickman said. “Whether farmers decide to enter the SFS or continue with the tapering BPS, the FUW is here to support you throughout the transition.”

Welsh Conservatives: “Still in the dark”

The Welsh Conservatives have criticised the scheme’s rollout, arguing that farmers remain “in the dark” due to the lack of an updated economic impact assessment. Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs Samuel Kurtz MS said the absence of such analysis undermines the scheme’s credibility and leaves farmers unable to assess its real-world consequences.

“There are aspects of the scheme that can be cautiously welcomed,” Kurtz said, referencing the removal of the 10% tree planting requirement. “But a scheme-wide tree planting target remains, alongside a 10% habitat target, which could reduce food production in Wales.”

Kurtz also raised concerns about future funding, noting that the Universal tier budget is only matched to BPS for 2026, with no guarantees beyond that. He called for a Senedd vote to give the scheme democratic legitimacy and urged the Welsh Government to publish its impact assessment.

Darren Millar MS: “No mention of food security”

During First Minister’s Questions, Welsh Conservative Leader Darren Millar MS accused the Welsh Government of neglecting food security in its updated SFS document.

“The term ‘food security’ doesn’t appear once,” Millar said. “Yet the word ‘environment’ is mentioned 79 times, which tells you everything you need to know about Labour’s priorities.”

Millar warned that under Labour’s plans, Welsh farmers could be forced to sacrifice an area “half the size of the Vale of Glamorgan” to tree planting, while the UK Climate Change Committee recommends a 19% cut in livestock numbers — a proposal the Conservatives reject.

“For every £1 invested in farming, £9 is returned to the Welsh economy,” Millar added. “Yet Labour is freezing the £238m farming budget with no uplift, which is a real terms cut. Labour is sacrificing Welsh livelihoods and food security.”

Andrew RT Davies: “Where is the impact assessment?”

Former Welsh Conservative Leader and South Wales Central MS Andrew RT Davies, himself a farmer, echoed calls for transparency. He pointed to the previous impact assessment, which projected the loss of 5,000 farmers, 100,000 cattle, and nearly a million sheep under earlier SFS proposals.

“We need assurances there will not be devastating consequences from this revised scheme,” Davies said. “Yet Senedd ministers won’t publish an impact assessment. This obviously leads us to ask why.”

Welsh Government: “A whole farm, whole nation approach”

In its official statement, the Welsh Government described the SFS as a “whole farm, whole nation” approach to securing the future of food production while protecting the environment. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies said the scheme reflects extensive collaboration and aims to support farmers in adapting to climate change, restoring nature, and maintaining rural heritage.

The scheme includes:

• A Universal layer with 12 required actions, including soil health, hedgerow management, and animal welfare
• A tree and hedgerow planting opportunity plan, replacing the 10% tree cover rule
• A 10% habitat management requirement, with flexible options
• A social value payment recognising farming’s wider benefits
• A £1,000 stability payment for farms up to 100ha

Applications will open via Rural Payments Wales from March to 15 May 2026, with the scheme officially launching on 1 January 2026.

What’s next?

While the FUW and other stakeholders have welcomed the scheme’s publication, calls for greater clarity, economic modelling, and long-term funding commitments continue to dominate the political debate. Farming unions have urged members to review the scheme carefully and provide feedback as technical guidelines are finalised.

The Welsh Government has committed to ongoing consultation and refinement, but pressure is mounting for it to publish the impact assessment and address concerns around food production, budget stability, and administrative burden.

Swansea Bay News will continue to follow developments as the Sustainable Farming Scheme moves toward implementation.

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Calls to ‘follow the science’ as record numbers of cows slaughtered due to Bovine TB

Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs, Samuel Kurtz has called on the Welsh Labour Government to urgently reconsider its position on targeted wildlife control in the fight against bovine TB, following an increase in both the number new herd breakdowns and the number of cattle slaughtered.

In the 12 months to March 2025, a record 13,174 animals were slaughtered in Wales due to bovine TB, an increase of 17.7% compared with 11,194 in the previous year. There were also 619 new incidents during the same period, a 2% increase from 607 in the prior 12 months.

In a letter to the Deputy First Minister, Mr Kurtz referenced the latest data from Lincolnshire, where a five-year culling programme has seen TB prevalence in badgers fall from 24% to just 4%. Natural England has confirmed further culls will take place in ten more areas from this September.

The intervention follows mounting frustration across Wales’ agricultural communities, particularly in long-standing TB hotspot areas like Pembrokeshire, where confidence in the Welsh Government’s eradication strategy is at an all-time low.

Mr Kurtz, who has helped push forward the Pembrokeshire Project, a science-led local initiative to tackle the disease, said it was time for the Welsh Government to take a more honest, holistic and pragmatic approach.

Commenting, Welsh Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary For Rural Affairs Samuel Kurtz MS, said: “Farmers are being pushed to the brink, financially and emotionally. The ongoing toll of bovine TB is devastating, not just for businesses, but for the mental wellbeing of entire families and communities.

“Welsh Government must be willing to look at all the evidence, including the clear impact that targeted wildlife control is having in parts of England. It cannot keep asking farmers to suffer while ruling out potentially effective tools.”

Mr Kurtz also criticised the Welsh Labour Party’s 2021 manifesto, which pledged to “forbid” a badger cull, a word he described as “ideological and absolute,” showing a refusal to engage with evolving science or the real-world impact on farming families.

“To use the word ‘forbid’ in a manifesto is extraordinary. It suggests that no matter what evidence emerges, the decision is made. That’s not a science-led approach, that’s politics getting in the way of progress.”

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