FANTASY FOOTBALL? Politics experts launch ‘game-changing’ Senedd election platform
The innovative new website, dubbed ‘Horse Race Politics‘, brings the excitement of fantasy sports to the world of Welsh politics, offering a fresh way for voters to engage with the upcoming vote.
As Wales prepares for a massive shake-up of its political landscape in May 2026, the bilingual platform invites users to join a forecasting league and compete for trophies. This follows the chancellor and first minister’s meeting with communities facing change across the region.
Participants can predict party seat shares, potential coalitions, and overall election outcomes, all while tracking their performance against other armchair analysts.
The free-to-play platform is open to everyone and uses crowd-sourced predictions to provide a real-time look at how the election is shaping up as events unfold.
The 2026 election on May 7 is set to be the biggest change to the Senedd in 25 years, with a new voting system and the number of Members increasing from 60 to 96. This major shift has already prompted calls from Llanelli politicians and others for alternative proposals to protect local interests.
Professor Matt Wall, co-founder of Horse Race Politics, has described the upcoming vote as the “most politically significant of the devolution era.” It comes at a time when Welsh Government demands for urgent UK action are intensifying.
“Horse Race Politics turns that complexity into something engaging and accessible,” Professor Wall has stated, aiming to make the election better understood by all.
Alongside the forecasting tools, the platform features social forums, a daily Welsh politics quiz, and access to expert commentary via a dedicated podcast and blog. This is part of a wider effort to increase engagement, similar to how Swansea-based research programmes are funding new studies into the region’s future.
Dr Louis Bromfield, the platform’s lead developer, has said the project was inspired by the massive popularity of sports-based fantasy leagues.
“We are creating a new way for people to engage with democracy, making prediction a more formal and fun experience,” Dr Bromfield has explained.
The project is funded by UK Research and Innovation and forms part of the wider 2026 Welsh Election Study led by Swansea University in collaboration with Aberystwyth University.
#education #ElectionStudy #fantasyFootball #fantasyPolitics #fantasySports #HorseRacePolitics #politics #Senedd #SeneddElection #SeneddElection2026 #SeneddElections2026 #SwanseaUniversity #Technology #Wales #WelshGovernment
Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake in Wales
The YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University shows Plaid climbing to 37% of the vote — fourteen points clear of Reform UK — in a result that would trigger the biggest political shake‑up since devolution began in 1999.
Reform drops to 23%, the Greens leap to a record 13%, and Labour slumps to just 10%, its lowest Senedd rating ever recorded. The Conservatives also sit at 10%, leaving Wales’ two traditional governing parties tied for fourth place.
Under Wales’ new 96‑member Senedd, the figures would translate to Plaid winning 45 seats, just four short of an outright majority. Reform would take 23, the Greens 11, Labour eight and the Conservatives six.
Labour collapse deepens as Greens surge
The poll confirms a dramatic realignment in Welsh politics. Labour, which has dominated every Welsh election since 1922, now risks losing power for the first time in the history of devolution.
The Greens, meanwhile, record their strongest ever Welsh performance, overtaking Labour and the Conservatives for the first time.
Reform UK, which had been neck‑and‑neck with Plaid throughout 2025, sees its support fall sharply.
Senedd voting intention (YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales)
Fieldwork: 5–12 January 2026 • Wales • % of vote
Plaid Cymru 37% Reform UK 23% Green 13% Labour 10% Conservative 10% Lib Dem 5% Other 2%Source: YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, January 2026.
Young voters break decisively with Labour as Greens and Plaid dominate
The raw YouGov data reveals a dramatic generational divide that cuts to the heart of Wales’ political realignment. Among 16 to 24‑year‑olds, the Greens now lead the field on 43%, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 42% — a combined 85% share that leaves the traditional parties almost nowhere.
Reform UK records just 6% among young voters, while Labour slumps to 4%, its weakest demographic performance in the entire poll.
The picture among older voters is far more fragmented. In the 65+ group, Plaid Cymru leads on 29%, with Reform UK close behind on 28%. The Conservatives remain competitive at 19%, while Labour manages 13% and the Greens fall to 4%.
The figures underline the scale of Labour’s challenge. The party that once dominated every age group in Wales is now squeezed from both sides — losing younger voters to Plaid and the Greens, and older voters to Reform and the Conservatives.
They also highlight the depth of Plaid Cymru’s surge. The party is now ahead among older voters and competitive among the youngest, a rare position in Welsh politics and one that strengthens its path to becoming the largest party in May.
Senedd voting intention — Age 16–24
YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026
Conservative 0% Labour 4% Lib Dem 5% Plaid Cymru 42% Reform UK 6% Green 43% Other 0%Senedd voting intention — Age 25–49
YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026
Conservative 6% Labour 7% Lib Dem 5% Plaid Cymru 47% Reform UK 15% Green 17% Other 3%Senedd voting intention — Age 50–64
YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026
Conservative 7% Labour 12% Lib Dem 7% Plaid Cymru 32% Reform UK 33% Green 7% Other 2%Senedd voting intention — Age 65+
YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026
Conservative 19% Labour 13% Lib Dem 4% Plaid Cymru 29% Reform UK 28% Green 4% Other 2%“A substantial shift” says leading academic
Dr Jac Larner, Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: This poll shows a stark contrast to previous polling, with a substantial 14‑point gap between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Senedd voting intention. While any single poll should come with a health warning, it continues broader trends in Welsh polling, where Plaid have enjoyed a modest boost and the Greens have surged.
He said the gains for Plaid and the Greens appear to be coming from previously undecided voters, and that Plaid is now seen by a majority of respondents as the party best placed to challenge Reform.
Parties react as campaign pressure intensifies
Plaid Cymru said the poll confirms the election is now a straight fight between them and Reform, claiming more voters are backing the party’s “positive vision for Wales”.
Welsh Labour said it was focused on “helping make people’s lives better”, while accusing Plaid of returning to its independence plans without explaining how they would be funded.
Westminster shock as Plaid overtakes Reform
The poll also shows Plaid now leading Westminster voting intention in Wales, rising to 29% and overtaking Reform on 25%. Labour collapses to 13%, with the Conservatives and Greens tied on 12%.
The shift follows Plaid’s by‑election victory in Caerphilly last autumn and rising approval for party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.
Wales heading for its most unpredictable election
With four months to go, the poll suggests Wales could be on the verge of a political realignment not seen in a generation. A Plaid Cymru First Minister is now a realistic prospect, with the party potentially able to govern with only Green support.
Reform UK remains a serious contender for official opposition, while Labour faces the possibility of losing power for the first time since devolution.
The poll surveyed 1,220 adults for Senedd voting intention and 1,205 adults for Westminster voting intention between 5 and 12 January.
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Plaid’s big win in Caerphilly reshapes the Senedd debate
The Caerphilly by‑election result that helped trigger Plaid’s momentum heading into 2026.
Plaid storms ahead as Labour vote collapses in Wales
Earlier polling showing the first signs of Labour’s decline and Plaid’s growing lead.
Plaid storms ahead as Labour vote collapses in Wales
A YouGov/Cardiff University survey of 2,500 adults across Wales shows Plaid on course to become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since devolution began in 1999. Reform UK trails narrowly on 30%, while Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 10% each. The Greens rise to 9% and the Liberal Democrats to 6%.
Under the new proportional voting system debuting in May 2026, Plaid would secure 39 seats, Reform 34, Labour 10, Conservatives six, Greens four and the Lib Dems three.
Labour dominance shattered by poll shock
Labour has led every Welsh Government since 1999, but the latest figures show the party reduced to historic lows. Once the dominant force in the Welsh‑identifying progressive bloc, Labour now retains only a fraction of its former support.
Cardiff University’s analysis makes clear this isn’t voters abandoning progressive politics altogether — it’s consolidation. Plaid has absorbed the bulk of Welsh‑identifying support, while Reform has swallowed Conservative backing among British‑identifying voters.
Generational divide drives realignment
The raw data reveals a stark split by age. Plaid dominates among younger voters, winning 37% of 18–24s and 31% of 25–34s. Reform surges among older voters, taking 31% of those aged 55–64 and 30% of those aged 65–74. Labour barely registers across all age groups, peaking at just 10%.
Education tells a similar story. Plaid is strongest among graduates, while Reform leads among those with no qualifications.
Voters say why they’re switching
Plaid supporters overwhelmingly cite “standing up for Wales” as their reason for switching, with nearly half of respondents choosing that option. A further fifth back Plaid tactically as “best placed to stop Reform UK.”
Reform voters are driven by immigration, with 42% saying it is the party’s defining issue. Nigel Farage’s leadership remains a powerful draw, with nearly one in five citing him as the only leader who understands ordinary people’s problems.
What it means for Wales
The poll does not provide constituency‑level figures, but the national trend is clear: Labour’s grip on Wales has loosened dramatically. Even in traditional strongholds, the party’s dominance can no longer be taken for granted.
If these figures hold, Welsh politics faces a generational realignment. For the first time in a century, Labour faces the prospect of opposition or junior coalition status, while Plaid Cymru is poised to lead the Senedd.
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Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck and neck as Labour slumps to historic low
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Latest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck
Analysis of how South West Wales emerged as a decisive battleground in earlier polling.
Reform UK pulls ahead as Plaid slips and Labour edges back
Coverage of Reform overtaking Plaid in a previous survey, with Labour showing slight recovery.
Reform projected to have most Senedd seats
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Latest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck as South West Wales emerges as decisive battleground
The fresh Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru puts Reform on 27% (down three points since September), Plaid Cymru on 26% (up four), Labour on 21% (down two), Conservatives on 12%, Greens on 9% and Liberal Democrats on 3%.
Seat projections show Reform and Plaid neck‑and‑neck on 30 seats each, Labour on 24, Conservatives on 9, Greens on 2 and Lib Dems on just 1. That would almost certainly see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth installed as First Minister — either through a coalition with Labour or a looser cooperation deal.
But the real drama lies in the constituency breakdown.
South West Wales on a knife‑edge
The updated projections show how finely balanced the region has become:
Senedd ConstituencyComposed of Parliamentary SeatsProjected MSs (by party)Gŵyr AbertaweSwansea West + Gower3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 PlaidBrycheiniog Tawe NeddBrecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe + Neath & Swansea East3 Reform, 1 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Lib DemAfan Ogwr RhonddaAberafan Maesteg + Rhondda and Ogmore3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 PlaidSir GaerfyrddinLlanelli + Caerfyrddin3 Plaid, 2 Reform, 1 LabourCeredigion PenfroCeredigion Preseli + Mid and South Pembrokeshire3 Plaid, 2 Reform, 1 LabourPen‑y‑bont Bro MorgannwgBridgend + Vale of Glamorgan2 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 PlaidIn Gŵyr Abertawe, Reform, Labour and Plaid split the six seats, with Reform edging ahead on three. In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid takes control with three seats, leaving Reform on two and Labour squeezed down to one. Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is even more fragmented, with Reform on three, Labour and Plaid on one each, plus single seats for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. And in Pen‑y‑bont Bro Morgannwg, Reform and Labour again take two apiece, leaving Plaid and the Conservatives with one each.
This mirrors the trend Swansea Bay News has tracked for months: Reform surging in working‑class valleys and coastal towns, Plaid consolidating its Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion heartlands, and Labour squeezed from both sides. The new numbers show Plaid clawing back ground, especially among younger voters and Welsh speakers, while Reform’s momentum has slowed.
Demographic divides deepen
The poll highlights stark splits:
These divides underline the cultural and generational fault lines running through South West Wales, with Reform strongest among older, non‑Welsh‑speaking voters and Plaid dominant among younger, Welsh‑speaking communities.
From landslide to stalemate
Just months ago, Reform were riding high in South West Wales, with polls showing them pulling ahead while Plaid slipped and Labour edged back. Warnings from the First Minister that a Reform or Plaid victory could plunge Wales into “chaos” reflected that momentum. Now, the picture is more complicated: Reform’s surge has stalled, Plaid has recovered, and Labour remains stuck in third place.
The result? A looming stalemate. With no party anywhere near a majority, South West Wales’ six‑seat constituencies could decide whether Wales ends up with a Reform‑dominated Senedd, a Plaid‑Labour coalition, or another fragile cooperation deal.
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#AfanOgwrRhondda #BeaufortResearch #BrycheiniogTaweNedd #Caerfyrddin #CeredigionPenfro #GreenParty #GŵyrAbertawe #PenYBontBroMorgannwg #PlaidCymru #politics #ReformUK #SeneddElection #SeneddElections2026 #SirGaerfyrddin #WelshConservatives #WelshLiberalDemocrats
First Minister Eluned Morgan tops Labour’s Senedd candidate list for Ceredigion Penfro
Under Labour’s rules, incumbent Members of the Senedd are automatically placed at the top of their constituency lists. Morgan has represented Mid and West Wales on the regional list since 2016 and became First Minister in 2024, having previously served as Health Minister and International Relations Minister.
Just two of Labour’s candidates on the Ceredigion Penfro list have direct links to the area. Marc Tierney, Morgan’s current office manager, is a county councillor for Narberth Urban and Cabinet Member for Young People, Communities and the Wellbeing of Future Generations. Joshua Phillips, a local activist, chairs Welsh Labour’s Solva & St Davids Branch, is vice chair of Solva Community Council, and is founder of the Edge Festival as well as director of Solva Gin.
Other names on the list include Margaret Greenaway, Swansea‑based President of The Open University Students’ Association; Tansaim Hussain‑Gul, a Cardiff‑born British Gas worker and trade union activist; Luke Davies‑Jones, a chartered accountant and Unite union member born in Swansea and now living in Cardiff; and Peter Huw Jenkins, a county councillor for Llandaff on Cardiff City Council.
Labour’s candidate list for Ceredigion Penfro
Eluned Morgan
First Minister of Wales and incumbent MS, automatically placed at the top of Labour’s slate.
Marc Tierney
County councillor for Narberth Urban, Cabinet Member for Young People, Communities and Wellbeing of Future Generations, and Morgan’s current office manager.
Joshua Phillips
Local activist, chair of Welsh Labour’s Solva & St Davids Branch, vice chair of Solva Community Council, founder of the Edge Festival and director of Solva Gin.
Margaret Greenaway
Swansea-based President of The Open University Students’ Association (OUSA).
Tansaim Hussain-Gul
Cardiff-born British Gas worker and trade union activist.
Luke Davies-Jones
Chartered accountant and Unite union member, born in Swansea and living in Cardiff.
Peter Huw Jenkins
County councillor for Llandaff on Cardiff City Council.
New constituency and projections
Ceredigion Penfro is one of the new multi‑member constituencies created under Senedd reforms, combining parts of Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire. Each of the new constituencies will elect six Members of the Senedd using proportional representation, replacing the old mix of constituency and regional seats.
Polling averages suggest Labour could secure around two seats in Ceredigion Penfro, with Plaid Cymru expected to perform strongly in the area and Reform UK also polling competitively. That would give Labour a foothold in a constituency where Plaid has historically dominated, but where Pembrokeshire’s Labour vote could now play a bigger role under the new boundaries.
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#candidates #ceredigion #ceredigionPenfro #elunedMorgan #elunedMorganMs #firstMinister #labour #pembrokeshire #senedd #seneddElection #seneddElections2026 #welshLabour
Sarah Murphy tops Labour’s Senedd candidate list for Pen‑y‑Bont Bro Morgannwg
Latest polling suggests Labour are likely to secure two of the six seats in this constituency at the 2026 Senedd election.
Sitting Bridgend MS heads the slate
First on the list is Sarah Murphy, who has represented Bridgend in the Senedd since 2021. She previously worked as Head of Events for Welsh Labour, Research Analyst for Lee Waters AM, and Communications Manager for Anna McMorrin MP. Before her election she chaired Sustainable Wales, a Porthcawl‑based charity supporting community‑led sustainable development.
Former council leader takes second place
Second is Huw David OBE, the former leader of Bridgend County Borough Council between 2016 and 2024. He was awarded an OBE for public service and his contribution to local government in the Queen’s Birthday Honours list in 2022.
Vale deputy mayor ranked third
Third on the list is Carys Stallard, a former BBC journalist who now serves as Labour councillor for St Brides Major on the Vale of Glamorgan Council. She is currently Deputy Mayor of the Vale of Glamorgan, chairs the Glamorgan Heritage Coast Advisory Group, and sits on the Place Scrutiny and Planning Committees.
Politics & Senedd News
Follow the latest updates on Senedd candidate selections, party rankings, and polling across Wales.
Trade union organiser joins the slate
Fourth is Jonathan Cox, a trade unionist and community organiser who founded Citizens Cymru Wales. A former adviser to David Miliband MP, he says he has worked with Mark Drakeford MS on the Real Living Wage in social care, with Jane Hutt MS to welcome Syrian refugees to the Vale, and with Carwyn Jones MS to introduce the Real Living Wage in Welsh Government.
Bridgend councillor takes fifth spot
Fifth is Jon‑Paul Blundell, a Bridgend councillor for the Cefn‑Glas ward. He chairs the Communities, Environment and Housing Overview and Scrutiny Committee and was previously Cabinet Member for Education.
Barry councillor and wellbeing champion ranked sixth
Sixth on the list is Helen Payne, a Vale of Glamorgan councillor for the Cadoc ward in Barry. She was previously Projects Manager for Llamau, supporting vulnerable young people. Payne is the council’s Mental Wellbeing Champion, chairs the Investigating Committee, and serves as Vice Chair of the Start Well Scrutiny Committee.
Former cabinet member joins at seven
Seventh is Rhys Goode, a councillor for the Nant‑y‑moel ward on Bridgend Council. He has served as Cabinet Member for Housing, Planning & Regeneration (2023–24) and Cabinet Member for Wellbeing & Future Generations (2022–23). Goode was Head of Terrence Higgins Trust Cymru from 2022 to 2024, and has held senior communications roles at Klana and JustGiving.
Porthcawl councillor completes the list
Eighth is Neelo Farr, a trade unionist and councillor for Porthcawl on Bridgend Council. She is Cabinet Member for Regeneration, Economic Development and Housing, with a professional background as a mental health social worker.
Constituency boundaries
Pen‑y‑Bont Bro Morgannwg is one of 16 new Senedd “super constituencies” created for the 2026 election. It combines the Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan parliamentary areas, covering major towns including Bridgend, Barry, Cowbridge, Llantwit Major, Pencoed and Porthcawl. The constituency will elect six Members of the Senedd under the new proportional voting system.
Electoral outlook
While Murphy heads the slate, Labour’s prospects in Pen‑y‑Bont Bro Morgannwg are limited. Polling suggests the party is in line for just two seats in this constituency, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK also competing strongly as Labour’s support edges back.
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Ammanford deputy mayor tops Labour’s Senedd list for Carmarthenshire
Higgins brings legal and union background to the top of the list
Labour members in the new “super constituency” of Sir Gaerfyrddin, covering the Westminster seats of Caerfyrddin and Llanelli, have backed Higgins to head the party’s closed list under the expanded Senedd arrangements.
A fluent Welsh speaker, Higgins told members he wanted to “represent Sir Gaerfyrddin to make a difference on the ground, ensuring national policies deliver for our communities.” He pointed to his experience as a Citizens Advice lawyer during austerity and later as a manager for a health trade union representing members across Wales during the pandemic.
Currently deputy mayor of Ammanford, Higgins also sits on Ammanford Town Council and Lliedi Community Council. He has lived in Tycroes all his life, trained as a barrister, and worked for Citizens Advice Cymru before joining an NHS trade union as a policy officer. Away from politics he plays rugby for Tycroes RFC 2nds and is active in local groups including Tycroes Local Aid.
Teacher from Burry Port takes second place
Second on Labour’s list is Dawn Evans, a teacher from Burry Port. In her pitch she described herself as “a proud Welsh speaking woman, rooted in Carmarthenshire,” and spoke of her personal experience when her son Iwan was left with lifelong disabilities following ambulance delays.
“That experience shaped me,” she said. “I promised myself that if I ever had a chance to improve health and care services for others, I would.”
County councillor and consultant joins the slate
Third on the list is Martyn Palfreman, Labour County Councillor for the Hengoed ward. He is also a consultant specialising in improvement across social care, health and public services, with a career background in practice development and service transformation.
Llanelli architect and town council leader makes his bid
Fourth is David Darkin, an architect and leader of Llanelli Town Council, who launched his bid for the Senedd list in July. He has combined his professional expertise with civic leadership, and has been active in local politics and community design.
Advisor to Lee Waters MS takes fifth spot
Fifth is Lewis Eldred Davies, Labour County Councillor for Kidwelly & St Ishmael. He works as an advisor to Lee Waters MS, the controversial former transport minister who is not standing again at the next election.
Llanelli councillor and mental health campaigner completes the list
Sixth on the list is Andre McPherson, Labour County Councillor for Tyisha ward and a member of Llanelli Town Council. A qualified personal trainer, he also chairs the Board of Trustees for MIND’s Llanelli branch, supporting mental health services in the community.
Electoral outlook
While Higgins heads the slate, Labour’s prospects in Carmarthenshire are far from certain. Our previous poll reporting suggested the party is in line for just one seat in this constituency, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK both gaining ground as Labour’s support edges back.
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BAME and union activist tops Labour’s Senedd list for Neath, Swansea East and Brecon
Heading the list is Dr Mahaboob Basha, a Swansea University External Relations Manager and long‑standing union activist. Originally from Tamil Nadu, India, Basha has worked with governments and international organisations including the United Nations. Diagnosed with dyslexia and colour blindness in his twenties, he has become a prominent advocate for equality and representation, chairing Welsh Labour’s BAME membership group. His community work — including delivering thousands of hot meals through Sketty Youth Club — was recognised earlier this year with a British Citizen Award.
Behind him in second place is Alex Sims, who works as office manager for Cardiff MS Jenny Rathbone. Sims has built experience in constituency casework and political organisation, giving him insight into policy delivery and community engagement.
Third on the list is Sarah Thomas, a councillor on Neath Port Talbot Council representing Gwaun‑Cae‑Gurwen and Lower Brynaman. She serves as shadow cabinet member for Finance, Performance & Social Justice, bringing local government experience and a focus on financial accountability and equality.
Further down the list are Elliot Wigfall, a Labour councillor for Ynysybwl and Coed Y Cwm Community Council; Cyriac George, a Care Officer at Swansea Council originally from Kerala, India; Chelsea Edwards, a younger Labour activist involved in community campaigning; and Morgan Pritchard, another emerging figure from the party’s renewal process.
Wider contest
Labour’s announcement comes as other parties have already named their candidates for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Plaid Cymru’s team includes sitting MS Sioned Williams, councillor Rebeca Phillips, community activist Andrew Jenkins, and Abercraf councillor Justin Horrell. The Welsh Liberal Democrats have confirmed that party leader Jane Dodds MS will head their list in the constituency.
Polling picture
As reported by Swansea Bay News earlier this month, the latest polling suggests Labour is currently on track to win one seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. That would mean only the top‑ranked candidate — Dr Mahaboob Basha — is likely to secure election if current trends hold, with Reform UK and Plaid Cymru also expected to perform strongly in the area.
What happens next
These rankings remain provisional and subject to endorsement by Welsh Labour’s Executive Committee before being finalised. Further lists for the remaining constituencies will be published in the coming weeks as parties prepare for the next Senedd election.
#alexSims #brycheiniogTaweNedd #chelseaEdwards #cllrSarahThomas #cyriacGeorge #drMahaboobBasha #elliotWigfall #morganPritchard #seneddElection #seneddElections2026 #welshLabour
Swansea Council leader ranked second on Labour’s Senedd candidate list for Gŵyr Abertawe
Labour sets out its order for Gŵyr Abertawe
Welsh Labour has confirmed the order of its candidates for Gŵyr Abertawe, one of the 16 new “super constituencies” that will elect six members each at the next Senedd election.
The list is headed by Mike Hedges MS, the long‑standing representative for Swansea East, with Rob Stewart placed second. Rebecca Fogarty, a West Cross councillor and newly appointed cabinet member, is ranked third, followed by Rebecca Francis‑Davies, daughter of cabinet member Robert Francis‑Davies.
Also on the list are Sara Faye, political advisor to Julie James MS who is not standing in the next election; Kemba Hadaway‑Morgan, a trade unionist, member of Race Council Cymru and trade union representative on several Welsh Government committees; Patience Bentu, a Swansea councillor for Castle Ward and member of the Mid and West Wales Fire Authority, who has written about “the missing voices in Welsh politics and the need for diverse candidates for the Senedd election.”; and Victoria Holland a councillor for Pontlliw on Swansea Council.
A new system changes how votes count
The 2026 election will be the first under a new proportional voting system. Voters will no longer choose an individual candidate, but instead cast their ballot for a party. Each party’s candidates are then elected in the order they appear on the ranked list, depending on how many seats that party wins.
That means in Gŵyr Abertawe, a vote for Labour will first count towards electing Mike Hedges. If Labour secures enough support for a second seat, Rob Stewart would follow. Candidates further down the list would only enter the Senedd if Labour’s share of the vote is high enough to win additional seats.
Polls suggest two Labour seats
The latest Senedd polling, reported by Swansea Bay News in October, projected that in Gŵyr Abertawe Reform UK would win three of the six seats, Labour two, and Plaid Cymru one.
If that projection holds, it would mean Hedges and Stewart are the only Labour candidates elected in the constituency, underlining the significance of Stewart’s second‑place ranking.
Rivals already in the race
Other parties have also begun setting out their lead candidates. The Welsh Conservatives have named Tom Giffard MS as their top candidate, while the Green Party has selected Swansea councillor Chris Evans. The Liberal Democrats have announced Will Thomas as their lead candidate for Swansea and Neath.
Together, these announcements mean the contest in Gŵyr Abertawe is already taking shape, with party leaders and councillors positioning themselves for the first election under the new system.
What happens next
Labour’s rankings remain provisional until endorsed by the party’s Welsh Executive Committee. Once confirmed, the lists will determine the order in which candidates are elected, depending on the party’s share of the vote.
For voters in Swansea and Gower, the change means the focus will be less on individual personalities and more on how each party performs overall.
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Nick Hubble
Editor