SENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat

A major new YouGov poll has sent shockwaves through Welsh politics — with projections suggesting the First Minister could lose her seat and Labour suffer heavy losses across west Wales.

The YouGov poll, using detailed constituency modelling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, points to a Senedd transformed — with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party and Reform UK surging into second place.

Wales-wide picture: Plaid on top as Senedd expands

Across Wales, the poll suggests a dramatic shift in power as the Senedd prepares to expand from 60 to 96 members under a new electoral system.

Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 seats, making it the largest party but still short of an overall majority.

Reform UK is forecast to take 30 seats — a huge leap for a party that has never fought a Senedd election before.

Labour is projected to fall to just 12 seats, with the Greens on 10, while the Conservatives collapse to a single MS and the Liberal Democrats fail to win any representation.

The key number is 49 — the threshold needed for a majority in the new Senedd.

Under these projections, Plaid Cymru and the Greens together would hold 53 seats, enough to form a government without Labour.

Analysts say the results point to a fragmented but firmly left-leaning Senedd — with Plaid in the strongest position to lead the next government.

Mike Hedges is projected to retain his seatSwansea Council leader, Rob Stewart looks like missing out on a Senedd seat

Gŵyr Abertawe: big names miss out

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Labour would return incumbent MS Mike Hedges, who tops the party’s list.

But there would be no seat for Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, who sits second — despite his high-profile role in recent national debates.

Reform UK would secure two seats, meaning former Conservative-turned-Reform councillor Francesca O’Brien would be elected alongside Steven Rodaway.

Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, while West Cross councillor Chris Evans would take a seat for the Greens.

Adam Price looks like he’s set to remain in the Senedd, despite placing third on Plaid’s party list (Image: Plaid Cymru)

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid dominance, Labour wiped out

In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid Cymru is projected to dominate with four seats — returning Cefin Campbell, former Assembly Member Nerys Evans, ex-party leader Adam Price and Mari Arthur.

Reform would take the remaining two seats, with Gareth Beer — who came close to winning Llanelli at the last general election — joined by Carmelo Colasanto.

Labour is not projected to win a single seat in the constituency.

Welsh Lib Dem leader, Jane Dodds could be on the way out, with the party projected to not pick up a single seat

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: four-way split

In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, the result is finely balanced across four parties.

Plaid would return Sioned Williams and Rebeca Phillips, while Reform would elect James Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh.

Labour would hold onto one seat through Mahaboob Basha BEM — as previously reported when he topped Labour’s list for the area — while Neath Port Talbot councillor Nathan Goldup John would take a seat for the Greens.

The result would see Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds miss out on a seat in the constituency.

Deputy First Minister, Huw Irranca Davies looks likely to save his seatBuffy Williams looks set to miss out however

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Labour heartland shaken

In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Plaid is projected to take three seats, with Sera Evans, Alun Geraint Cox and Elyn Stephens all elected.

Reform would secure two seats through Benjamin McKenna and Sarah Cooper Lesard.

Labour would be reduced to a single representative — Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies — with current Rhondda MS Buffy Williams losing her place.

The result signals a major shift in one of Labour’s traditional strongholds.

Eluned MorganSamuel KurtzPaul DaviesBig names on the way out

Ceredigion Penfro: First Minister loses seat

In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid would again lead with three seats, returning Elin Jones alongside Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.

Reform would take two seats through Susan Claire Archibald and Paul Marr, while Amy Nicholass would be elected for the Greens.

Crucially, Labour is not projected to win any representation here — meaning First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.

The constituency would also see senior Conservatives Paul Davies and Samuel Kurtz both miss out.

Big picture: political map redrawn

Across west Wales, the projections point to a dramatic political shift — with Reform UK emerging as a major force and traditional parties losing ground.

Despite the upheaval, Plaid Cymru remains the dominant party across every constituency in the region.

For voters, the implications are significant — from who represents their communities to how decisions are made on key issues like healthcare, transport and the cost of living.

With the election approaching, these results suggest one thing above all else — the political landscape in west Wales is changing fast.

And for some of Wales’ biggest political names, this could mark the end of the road.

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#AdamPriceMS #BuffyWilliams #CefinCampbell #ElunedMorganMS #GarethBeer #HuwIrrancaDaviesMS #JaneDodds #MikeHedgesMS #PaulDaviesMS #PlaidCymru #polling #ReformUK #RobStewart #SamuelKurtzMS #Senedd #SeneddElection #SeneddElection2026 #SionedWilliams #WelshLabour #YouGov

Independence warning: Top Labour candidate says Wales ‘£15bn better off’ in UK

A senior Swansea politician has issued a stark warning over Welsh independence — claiming the country is currently up to £15 billion a year better off as part of the UK.

Mike Hedges says Wales benefits from significantly higher public spending than it generates in tax — with a gap he estimates at £12bn to £15bn annually, and potentially even higher.

Writing in an opinion piece for Nation Cymru, he argues that under the current system Wales receives around 10% more public spending per head than the UK average, while tax revenues per person are only about 75% of the UK level.

That imbalance, he says, is fundamental.

“If Wales were to keep its own revenues and fund its own public spending,” he suggests, “it would face a large fiscal deficit.”

He adds that the scale of the gap is comparable to the entire Welsh health budget — underlining what he sees as the economic reality of independence.

‘Stronger in a larger economy’

Hedges argues the UK’s size is a key advantage — allowing wealth to be redistributed and cushioning regions like Wales during economic shocks.

“Larger countries can more easily withstand economic storms,” he says, pointing to the role of UK-wide spending on areas such as defence, debt interest and national infrastructure.

He also suggests that any move towards fiscal autonomy would require significantly stronger economic performance in Wales before it could become viable.

Independence debate intensifies

The comments come as Plaid Cymru continues to poll strongly — with projections suggesting it could emerge as the largest party after May’s Senedd election.

Hedges’ intervention is likely to be seen as a direct challenge to that momentum — putting the economic risks of independence at the centre of the political debate.

Key seat in the spotlight

The issue is particularly significant in Swansea and Gower.

Hedges is the sitting MS for Swansea East and Labour’s top list candidate for the new Gŵyr Abertawe constituency, making him the party’s most likely candidate to be returned to the Senedd.

Under the new voting system, voters will select parties rather than individuals — with candidates elected based on their position on party lists.

Polling suggests Labour could win just one of the six seats available locally, placing added importance on Hedges’ top ranking.

Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart is second on the list and would likely need a stronger-than-expected Labour performance to secure a seat.

Battle lines drawn

With the election approaching, Hedges’ message draws a clear dividing line — between those pushing for greater independence and those arguing Wales is financially stronger within the UK.

And with billions of pounds — and the future direction of the country — at stake, that debate is only set to intensify.

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Mike Hedges joins colleagues in warning Westminster is undermining devolution in Wales. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}

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Ho ho ho. Just to be clear here, this is not due to come into effect until 2030 so will have no bearing on the elections this May. Better late than never though: #SeneddElection #Wales
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8n99727lvo

“HEATING CRISIS HITTING US HARD”: Carmarthenshire families ‘forced to pay triple’ as oil reliance laid bare

The figures have sparked calls for urgent action from independent Senedd candidate Carl Peters-Bond, who warned families are being left with “no choice but to absorb soaring prices.”

Villages among worst hit in Wales

Data highlighted by the BBC shows just how exposed parts of the county are:

• 69% of households in Llannon, Cross Hands and Pen-y-groes rely on oil
• 65% in Abergwili, Llanegwad and Carmel
• 41% in Llanddarog, Llangyndeyrn and Ferryside

Across Wales, around 7% of homes depend on oil — but that figure jumps dramatically in rural areas like Carmarthenshire.

Bills double — and supplies dry up

The warning comes as families across Wales report being left without heating or forced to pay sky-high prices.

In one case reported by the BBC, a family saw a £323 oil order cancelled — only to be forced to pay £750 elsewhere.

Meanwhile, a man in Garnant said his annual bill could soar from £1,000 to £3,000, adding: “The heating has gone off… I’m basically having to dress up and keep moving.”

“People have no choice”

Peters-Bond said the crisis is already biting in Carmarthenshire:

“This crisis is hitting Carmarthenshire directly. When two-thirds of households in some communities rely on oil, people have no choice but to absorb soaring prices.”

He said funding announced by the UK Government must be targeted at rural areas first.

£3.8m for Wales — but who gets it?

The UK Government has unveiled a £53 million support package for households hit by rising oil prices — with £3.8 million allocated to Wales.

But Peters-Bond warned the money must not get lost in bureaucracy:

“The UK Government has released funding — now the Welsh Government must make sure every penny of that £3.8m reaches the rural households who need it most.”

“Competition won’t fix this”

While industry bodies have welcomed a review into oil pricing, Peters-Bond said that won’t help families stuck off the gas grid:

“Rural families aren’t choosing oil because it’s cheap — they’re choosing it because they’ve been left without options. Competition only works when people can switch.”

Calls for urgent action

He is now calling for:

• Emergency financial support for oil-dependent households
• A major retrofit programme to help homes switch to cheaper, greener heating
• A long-term plan to reduce reliance on volatile oil markets

Global crisis hitting local homes

The surge in prices has been linked to rising global oil costs amid conflict in the Middle East — with experts warning the situation could worsen heading into winter.

And for many in rural Carmarthenshire, the message is clear: without urgent help, the coming months could be even tougher.

“You can’t copy-and-paste urban policies onto rural Wales,” Peters-Bond added.
“Carmarthenshire needs solutions designed for Carmarthenshire.”

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#CarlPetersBond #Carmarthenshire #costOfLiving #costOfLivingCrisis #CrossHands #energy #energyBills #Garnant #heatingOil #oilPrices #ruralWales #SeneddElection #SouthWestWales #UKGovernment #WalesNews #WelshGovernment

PENLAN: Selfies and fish and chips – First Minister’s ‘off-script’ surprise visit to Swansea social club

The Welsh leader made an unannounced appearance at the Penlan Social Club, catching supporters and staff off guard in a “no airs and graces” visit.

Organisers admit the night went “slightly off script” when the First Minister was found in a huddle with young people in the bar, posing for photos before her formal speech.

Ms Morgan arrived quietly and without fanfare, joining more than 80 people gathered for the launch of Welsh Labour’s new Gwyr Abertawe candidates.

Alison Martin, Club Secretary of Penlan Social Club, said: “Our regulars had no idea she was coming and were delighted to have the First Minister posing for photos in the bar.”

She added: “It’s not every day the First Minister drops in for a fish and chip supper and we’re very proud to have been part of such a special evening.”

Eluned Morgan with Alison Martin, Club Secretary and regulars at Penlan Social Club. Credit: Alison Martin

The First Minister used the visit to set out her party’s election pledges ahead of the Senedd vote on May 7, promising a “new chapter” for Wales.

The evening also marked a changing of the guard for Swansea, with Ms Morgan paying tribute to long-serving MSs Julie James and Rebecca Evans, who are both standing down.

The new candidate list for the region is led by Mike Hedges MS, followed by Swansea Council Leader Rob Stewart, who has spearheaded the city’s regeneration.

Eluned Morgan arriving with Party Fundraiser, Kirstie Logan-Townshend Credit: Jennifer Ann PhotographyEluned takes to the stage, credit: Jennifer Ann Photography
Eluned photographed with the Senedd candidates, credit: Jennifer Ann Photography L-R Rebecca Fogarty, Mike Hedges, Eluned Morgan, Rebecca Francis- Davies, Rob Stewart, Patience Bentu

In a move that delighted the room, Ms Morgan stayed on after the formal speeches to enjoy a supper of fish and chips supplied by local Swansea chip shop, Roma.

She also took time to meet local business owners, including Nicky Romanello from the popular chippy, who had supported the event.

The First Minister’s unannounced stop in Penlan is seen as a key moment in the lead-up to the May elections, as parties begin to ramp up their local campaigns.

#CllrRobStewart #ElunedMorgan #ElunedMorganMS #MikeHedges #Penlan #PenlanSocialClub #RobStewart #SeneddElection #Swansea #WelshLabour

Lijstduwer - Wikipedia. It might be interesting to try 'list pushers' in the Senedd elections in Wales. Perhaps there is a particular Welsh term that might be applied or created.
#Senedd26 #SeneddElection #seneddelections2026
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lijstduwer

CARMARTHENSHIRE: Row over plans to fix notorious A48 accident blackspot

The Welsh Government has confirmed major alterations for the A48 between Carmarthen and Cross Hands, a notorious accident blackspot that has seen hundreds of crashes in recent years.

But the centrepiece of the plan – a new roundabout at Nantycaws – has been blasted as a “short-term fix” that will create even more congestion.

The criticism comes after alarming new figures revealed the safety record on the 12.5-mile stretch of dual carriageway is getting worse.

Data from Dyfed-Powys Police showed 186 collisions on the road in the 12 months to July 2025, an increase on the 169 crashes recorded in the previous year.

In response to a safety study commissioned in 2020, the Welsh Government has now unveiled a package of measures set to begin this autumn.

These include closing dangerous gaps in the central reservation and shutting six “sub-standard” laybys.

However, the main proposal involves constructing a new roundabout at Nantycaws to eliminate what officials call an “unsafe cross carriageway manoeuvre.”

An aerial view showing the proposed new roundabout at Nantycaws on the A48, along with planned changes to the existing junction and access routes. (Image: Welsh Government)

But Carl Peters-Bond, an independent candidate for the Caerfyrddin constituency, has criticised the proposal.

“The solution to the dangerous A48 does not lie in years of construction, disruption and delays — only to leave us with even more congestion at a brand-new roundabout at Nantycaws, right in the middle of a vital trunk route,” he said.

Mr Peters-Bond, who is also the Mayor of Kidwelly, warned: “That is not a serious long-term plan for a road of national importance.”

He argued that adding another roundabout to the busy stretch of road would simply move the problem elsewhere.

“Anyone who drives this stretch knows how heavily loaded these roundabouts already are. Adding another one at Nantycaws will not solve the problem — it will simply move it, and make the whole route slower and more dangerous.”

Carl Peters-Bond, independent candidate for Caerfyrddin, pictured at Kidwelly Castle. He has criticised the Welsh Government’s plans for the A48 as a “short-term fix.” (Image: Carl Peters-Bond)

Instead, Mr Peters-Bond is calling for a more strategic upgrade, including closing side-access routes, upgrading existing junctions to be fully grade-separated, and beginning work to extend the M4 to Carmarthen.

“These are the strategic solutions that match the scale of the problem — not temporary sticking-plasters,” he added.

The Welsh Government, however, has defended its plans.

Ken Skates, the cabinet secretary for transport, said the changes were designed to “reduce risk and improve conditions for everyone who uses the road.”

He added: “While lane closures will be required during construction and some journeys may take longer, this short-term disruption is necessary to deliver a safer and more resilient road for the future.”

Other changes planned for later this year include restricting right-turns at Llanddarog, Pantyffynnon, Llanarthne, and Foelgastell.

While the initial safety works are set to begin this year and take four months, the new roundabout at Nantycaws is a longer-term proposal, with construction not expected to start until at least 2027, subject to funding.

#A48 #CarlPetersBond #Carmarthenshire #KenSkatesMS #motoring #Nantycaws #NantycawsRoundabout #RoadSafety #SeneddElection #SeneddElection2026 #Transport #WelshGovernment

FANTASY FOOTBALL? Politics experts launch ‘game-changing’ Senedd election platform

The innovative new website, dubbed ‘Horse Race Politics‘, brings the excitement of fantasy sports to the world of Welsh politics, offering a fresh way for voters to engage with the upcoming vote.

As Wales prepares for a massive shake-up of its political landscape in May 2026, the bilingual platform invites users to join a forecasting league and compete for trophies. This follows the chancellor and first minister’s meeting with communities facing change across the region.

Participants can predict party seat shares, potential coalitions, and overall election outcomes, all while tracking their performance against other armchair analysts.

The free-to-play platform is open to everyone and uses crowd-sourced predictions to provide a real-time look at how the election is shaping up as events unfold.

The 2026 election on May 7 is set to be the biggest change to the Senedd in 25 years, with a new voting system and the number of Members increasing from 60 to 96. This major shift has already prompted calls from Llanelli politicians and others for alternative proposals to protect local interests.

Professor Matt Wall, co-founder of Horse Race Politics, has described the upcoming vote as the “most politically significant of the devolution era.” It comes at a time when Welsh Government demands for urgent UK action are intensifying.

“Horse Race Politics turns that complexity into something engaging and accessible,” Professor Wall has stated, aiming to make the election better understood by all.

Alongside the forecasting tools, the platform features social forums, a daily Welsh politics quiz, and access to expert commentary via a dedicated podcast and blog. This is part of a wider effort to increase engagement, similar to how Swansea-based research programmes are funding new studies into the region’s future.

Dr Louis Bromfield, the platform’s lead developer, has said the project was inspired by the massive popularity of sports-based fantasy leagues.

“We are creating a new way for people to engage with democracy, making prediction a more formal and fun experience,” Dr Bromfield has explained.

The project is funded by UK Research and Innovation and forms part of the wider 2026 Welsh Election Study led by Swansea University in collaboration with Aberystwyth University.

#education #ElectionStudy #fantasyFootball #fantasyPolitics #fantasySports #HorseRacePolitics #politics #Senedd #SeneddElection #SeneddElection2026 #SeneddElections2026 #SwanseaUniversity #Technology #Wales #WelshGovernment

M&S ROW: Council leader accuses Senedd candidate of using job losses for ‘deplorable’ election campaign

Swansea Council Leader Rob Stewart has hit back at political opponents over the closure of the city’s M&S store, calling it “deplorable” that a Senedd candidate is using the potential loss of 90 local jobs for his election campaign.

The blistering attack comes in response to criticism from Liberal Democrat Senedd candidate Sam Bennett and Swansea Lib Dem leader Cllr Chris Holley, who yesterday questioned the council’s regeneration priorities in the wake of the M&S closure announcement.

In a statement, the Labour leader launched a full-throated defence of his administration’s record while attacking the previous Liberal Democrat-led council.

“It’s deplorable that Cllr Sam Bennett is using the closure of the store with the potential loss of 90 local jobs to try and further his Senedd election campaign,” Cllr Stewart said.

The attack is politically charged, as both men are candidates in the new Gŵyr Abertawe Senedd constituency for the 2026 election. Cllr Stewart is ranked second on the Welsh Labour list, while Cllr Bennett is the lead candidate for the Welsh Liberal Democrats.

He also criticised his Lib Dem counterpart, stating, “It’s also disappointing to see Cllr Holley doesn’t have confidence in Swansea, or its traders and businesses.”

Cllr Stewart claimed his opponents “have not openly supported any of the developments in Swansea delivered over the last 11 years” and are “critics of the £1.3bn city deal.”

He also revealed that M&S has not given up on the city, stating, “M&S are actively looking for a different location in Swansea and have acknowledged the positive impact the regeneration is having.”

He then turned his fire on the record of the previous Liberal Democrat administration, which was led by Cllr Holley for much of its tenure, and controlled Swansea Council from 2004-2012.

“The Lib Dems introduced the disastrous bendy bus, continually dug up the Kingsway and introduced the mad road system, and absolutely failed to invest and support local businesses to grow,” he said.

“They have no ambition for Swansea.”

#CllrChrisHolley #CllrRobStewart #MarksAndSpencer #OxfordStreet #retail #SamBennett #SeneddElection #storeClosure #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Plaid Cymru storms ahead as shock Senedd poll predicts political earthquake in Wales

The YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University shows Plaid climbing to 37% of the vote — fourteen points clear of Reform UK — in a result that would trigger the biggest political shake‑up since devolution began in 1999.

Reform drops to 23%, the Greens leap to a record 13%, and Labour slumps to just 10%, its lowest Senedd rating ever recorded. The Conservatives also sit at 10%, leaving Wales’ two traditional governing parties tied for fourth place.

Under Wales’ new 96‑member Senedd, the figures would translate to Plaid winning 45 seats, just four short of an outright majority. Reform would take 23, the Greens 11, Labour eight and the Conservatives six.

Labour collapse deepens as Greens surge

The poll confirms a dramatic realignment in Welsh politics. Labour, which has dominated every Welsh election since 1922, now risks losing power for the first time in the history of devolution.

The Greens, meanwhile, record their strongest ever Welsh performance, overtaking Labour and the Conservatives for the first time.

Reform UK, which had been neck‑and‑neck with Plaid throughout 2025, sees its support fall sharply.

Senedd voting intention (YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales)

Fieldwork: 5–12 January 2026 • Wales • % of vote

Plaid Cymru 37% Reform UK 23% Green 13% Labour 10% Conservative 10% Lib Dem 5% Other 2%

Source: YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, January 2026.

Young voters break decisively with Labour as Greens and Plaid dominate

The raw YouGov data reveals a dramatic generational divide that cuts to the heart of Wales’ political realignment. Among 16 to 24‑year‑olds, the Greens now lead the field on 43%, with Plaid Cymru close behind on 42% — a combined 85% share that leaves the traditional parties almost nowhere.

Reform UK records just 6% among young voters, while Labour slumps to 4%, its weakest demographic performance in the entire poll.

The picture among older voters is far more fragmented. In the 65+ group, Plaid Cymru leads on 29%, with Reform UK close behind on 28%. The Conservatives remain competitive at 19%, while Labour manages 13% and the Greens fall to 4%.

The figures underline the scale of Labour’s challenge. The party that once dominated every age group in Wales is now squeezed from both sides — losing younger voters to Plaid and the Greens, and older voters to Reform and the Conservatives.

They also highlight the depth of Plaid Cymru’s surge. The party is now ahead among older voters and competitive among the youngest, a rare position in Welsh politics and one that strengthens its path to becoming the largest party in May.

Senedd voting intention — Age 16–24

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Conservative 0% Labour 4% Lib Dem 5% Plaid Cymru 42% Reform UK 6% Green 43% Other 0%

Senedd voting intention — Age 25–49

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Conservative 6% Labour 7% Lib Dem 5% Plaid Cymru 47% Reform UK 15% Green 17% Other 3%

Senedd voting intention — Age 50–64

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Conservative 7% Labour 12% Lib Dem 7% Plaid Cymru 32% Reform UK 33% Green 7% Other 2%

Senedd voting intention — Age 65+

YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales • January 2026

Conservative 19% Labour 13% Lib Dem 4% Plaid Cymru 29% Reform UK 28% Green 4% Other 2%

“A substantial shift” says leading academic

Dr Jac Larner, Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, said: This poll shows a stark contrast to previous polling, with a substantial 14‑point gap between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Senedd voting intention. While any single poll should come with a health warning, it continues broader trends in Welsh polling, where Plaid have enjoyed a modest boost and the Greens have surged.

He said the gains for Plaid and the Greens appear to be coming from previously undecided voters, and that Plaid is now seen by a majority of respondents as the party best placed to challenge Reform.

Parties react as campaign pressure intensifies

Plaid Cymru said the poll confirms the election is now a straight fight between them and Reform, claiming more voters are backing the party’s “positive vision for Wales”.

Welsh Labour said it was focused on “helping make people’s lives better”, while accusing Plaid of returning to its independence plans without explaining how they would be funded.

Westminster shock as Plaid overtakes Reform

The poll also shows Plaid now leading Westminster voting intention in Wales, rising to 29% and overtaking Reform on 25%. Labour collapses to 13%, with the Conservatives and Greens tied on 12%.

The shift follows Plaid’s by‑election victory in Caerphilly last autumn and rising approval for party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Wales heading for its most unpredictable election

With four months to go, the poll suggests Wales could be on the verge of a political realignment not seen in a generation. A Plaid Cymru First Minister is now a realistic prospect, with the party potentially able to govern with only Green support.

Reform UK remains a serious contender for official opposition, while Labour faces the possibility of losing power for the first time since devolution.

The poll surveyed 1,220 adults for Senedd voting intention and 1,205 adults for Westminster voting intention between 5 and 12 January.

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#GreenParty #PlaidCymru #polling #ReformUK #SeneddElection #SeneddElections2026 #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats