Morning! The Teulu and are going to #Carmarthen for a kinda long weekend. Are there any keys things we’ve got to do while we’re there?

#Helpu #Cymru #Caerfyrddin

Latest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck as South West Wales emerges as decisive battleground

The fresh Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru puts Reform on 27% (down three points since September), Plaid Cymru on 26% (up four), Labour on 21% (down two), Conservatives on 12%, Greens on 9% and Liberal Democrats on 3%.

Seat projections show Reform and Plaid neck‑and‑neck on 30 seats each, Labour on 24, Conservatives on 9, Greens on 2 and Lib Dems on just 1. That would almost certainly see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth installed as First Minister — either through a coalition with Labour or a looser cooperation deal.

But the real drama lies in the constituency breakdown.

South West Wales on a knife‑edge

The updated projections show how finely balanced the region has become:

In Gŵyr Abertawe, Reform, Labour and Plaid split the six seats, with Reform edging ahead on three. In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid takes control with three seats, leaving Reform on two and Labour squeezed down to one. Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is even more fragmented, with Reform on three, Labour and Plaid on one each, plus single seats for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. And in Pen‑y‑bont Bro Morgannwg, Reform and Labour again take two apiece, leaving Plaid and the Conservatives with one each.

This mirrors the trend Swansea Bay News has tracked for months: Reform surging in working‑class valleys and coastal towns, Plaid consolidating its Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion heartlands, and Labour squeezed from both sides. The new numbers show Plaid clawing back ground, especially among younger voters and Welsh speakers, while Reform’s momentum has slowed.

Demographic divides deepen

The poll highlights stark splits:

• Men lean Reform (29%), while women lean Plaid (27%).
• Young voters (16–34) back Plaid (31%) and Labour (28%), leaving Reform trailing at 14%.
• Middle‑aged voters (35–54) give Reform a commanding 36%.
• Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid (41%), while non‑Welsh speakers put Reform ahead (31%).

These divides underline the cultural and generational fault lines running through South West Wales, with Reform strongest among older, non‑Welsh‑speaking voters and Plaid dominant among younger, Welsh‑speaking communities.

From landslide to stalemate

Just months ago, Reform were riding high in South West Wales, with polls showing them pulling ahead while Plaid slipped and Labour edged back. Warnings from the First Minister that a Reform or Plaid victory could plunge Wales into “chaos” reflected that momentum. Now, the picture is more complicated: Reform’s surge has stalled, Plaid has recovered, and Labour remains stuck in third place.

The result? A looming stalemate. With no party anywhere near a majority, South West Wales’ six‑seat constituencies could decide whether Wales ends up with a Reform‑dominated Senedd, a Plaid‑Labour coalition, or another fragile cooperation deal.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

From Westminster landslide to Senedd stalemate
Polling shows contrasting futures for South West Wales between Westminster and Senedd elections.

Reform still leading in South West Wales
Labour makes gains but Reform UK remains ahead in the latest Senedd polling snapshot.

Reform surge redraws political map
Reform UK’s rise reshapes the electoral landscape across South West Wales constituencies.

Reform pulls ahead as Plaid slips
Reform UK takes the lead while Plaid Cymru loses ground and Labour edges back.

First Minister warns of chaos
Mark Drakeford warns Wales could face chaos if Plaid or Reform win the Senedd election.

Plaid and Reform neck and neck
Labour slumps to a historic low as Plaid Cymru and Reform UK tie in the polls.

Two‑thirds think politicians are out for themselves
A YouGov poll finds widespread distrust, with most believing politicians act in self‑interest.

#AfanOgwrRhondda #BeaufortResearch #BrycheiniogTaweNedd #Caerfyrddin #CeredigionPenfro #GreenParty #GŵyrAbertawe #PenYBontBroMorgannwg #PlaidCymru #politics #ReformUK #SeneddElection #SeneddElections2026 #SirGaerfyrddin #WelshConservatives #WelshLiberalDemocrats

Ammanford deputy mayor tops Labour’s Senedd list for Carmarthenshire

Higgins brings legal and union background to the top of the list

Labour members in the new “super constituency” of Sir Gaerfyrddin, covering the Westminster seats of Caerfyrddin and Llanelli, have backed Higgins to head the party’s closed list under the expanded Senedd arrangements.

A fluent Welsh speaker, Higgins told members he wanted to “represent Sir Gaerfyrddin to make a difference on the ground, ensuring national policies deliver for our communities.” He pointed to his experience as a Citizens Advice lawyer during austerity and later as a manager for a health trade union representing members across Wales during the pandemic.

Currently deputy mayor of Ammanford, Higgins also sits on Ammanford Town Council and Lliedi Community Council. He has lived in Tycroes all his life, trained as a barrister, and worked for Citizens Advice Cymru before joining an NHS trade union as a policy officer. Away from politics he plays rugby for Tycroes RFC 2nds and is active in local groups including Tycroes Local Aid.

Teacher from Burry Port takes second place

Second on Labour’s list is Dawn Evans, a teacher from Burry Port. In her pitch she described herself as “a proud Welsh speaking woman, rooted in Carmarthenshire,” and spoke of her personal experience when her son Iwan was left with lifelong disabilities following ambulance delays.

“That experience shaped me,” she said. “I promised myself that if I ever had a chance to improve health and care services for others, I would.”

County councillor and consultant joins the slate

Third on the list is Martyn Palfreman, Labour County Councillor for the Hengoed ward. He is also a consultant specialising in improvement across social care, health and public services, with a career background in practice development and service transformation.

Llanelli architect and town council leader makes his bid

Fourth is David Darkin, an architect and leader of Llanelli Town Council, who launched his bid for the Senedd list in July. He has combined his professional expertise with civic leadership, and has been active in local politics and community design.

Advisor to Lee Waters MS takes fifth spot

Fifth is Lewis Eldred Davies, Labour County Councillor for Kidwelly & St Ishmael. He works as an advisor to Lee Waters MS, the controversial former transport minister who is not standing again at the next election.

Llanelli councillor and mental health campaigner completes the list

Sixth on the list is Andre McPherson, Labour County Councillor for Tyisha ward and a member of Llanelli Town Council. A qualified personal trainer, he also chairs the Board of Trustees for MIND’s Llanelli branch, supporting mental health services in the community.

Electoral outlook

While Higgins heads the slate, Labour’s prospects in Carmarthenshire are far from certain. Our previous poll reporting suggested the party is in line for just one seat in this constituency, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK both gaining ground as Labour’s support edges back.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

Swansea Council leader ranked second on Labour’s Senedd list for Gŵyr Abertawe
Rob Stewart placed second on Labour’s candidate list for the Swansea “super constituency”.

BAME and union activist tops Labour’s Senedd list for Neath, Swansea East and Brecon
Labour confirmed its candidate line‑up for the neighbouring “super constituency”.

David Darkin launches Senedd bid for Carmarthenshire
Llanelli architect and town council leader announced his candidacy earlier this year.

Reform UK pulls ahead as Plaid slips and Labour edges back in new Senedd poll
Latest polling shows Labour under pressure in Carmarthenshire and across Wales.

#ammanford #ammanfordTownCouncil #andreMcpherson #caerfyrddin #calumHiggins #carmarthenshire #cllrMartynPalfreman #davidDarkin #dawnEvans #kidwelly #lewisEldredDavies #llanelli #llanelliTownCouncil #senedd #seneddElection #seneddElections2026 #welshLabour

The Red List

New Welsh documentry following botanist Dr Kevin McGinn trying ensure the existence of 25 of the most threatened plant species in Wales, narrated by Iolo Willams.

Premiered in London's Raindance film festival tonight and playing at Gardd Fotaneg Genedlaethol National Botanic Garden of Wales 25th July.

https://greenlit.com/project/red-list

#Wales #Cymru #Caerfyrddin #Carmarthen #SirGâr #Carmarthenshire #Redlist #redlistedspecies
#endangeredspecies #IoloWilliams
#plants #seedBank

O Orllewin Cymru i Balstin
From West Wales to Palestine

Parc Caerfyrddin / Carmarthe Park
06 04 2025 1:30

Gwisgwch Goch / Wear Red

The Global Red Line Movement comes to Carmarthen. Join us to Unfurl protest history.

Daw'r Mudiad Llinell Goch fyd-eang i Gaerfyrddin. Ymunwch â ni i datblygaf hanes protest.

#palestine #palestina #StopGenocide
#redline #llinellgoch #caerfyrddin #Carmarthen

Hwb mawr i'r blaid - ac ymchwil gwerthfawr i etholwyr yn yr etholaethau diwygiedig.

Useful info given new boundaries for the next election.

https://nation.cymru/news/double-opinion-poll-boost-for-plaid-cymru/

#ukpolitics #WalesPol #Gwleidyddiaeth #ynysmon #anglesey #caerfyrddin #Carmarthen

Dw i yng Nghaerfyrddin

#ymarfer #Caerfyrddin #Carmarthen #SummerTour #TootUp