EditorLatest Senedd poll puts Reform and Plaid neck and neck as South West Wales emerges as decisive battleground
The fresh Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru puts Reform on 27% (down three points since September), Plaid Cymru on 26% (up four), Labour on 21% (down two), Conservatives on 12%, Greens on 9% and Liberal Democrats on 3%.
Seat projections show Reform and Plaid neck‑and‑neck on 30 seats each, Labour on 24, Conservatives on 9, Greens on 2 and Lib Dems on just 1. That would almost certainly see Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth installed as First Minister — either through a coalition with Labour or a looser cooperation deal.
But the real drama lies in the constituency breakdown.
South West Wales on a knife‑edge
The updated projections show how finely balanced the region has become:
Senedd ConstituencyComposed of Parliamentary SeatsProjected MSs (by party)Gŵyr AbertaweSwansea West + Gower3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 PlaidBrycheiniog Tawe NeddBrecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe + Neath & Swansea East3 Reform, 1 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Lib DemAfan Ogwr RhonddaAberafan Maesteg + Rhondda and Ogmore3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 PlaidSir GaerfyrddinLlanelli + Caerfyrddin3 Plaid, 2 Reform, 1 LabourCeredigion PenfroCeredigion Preseli + Mid and South Pembrokeshire3 Plaid, 2 Reform, 1 LabourPen‑y‑bont Bro MorgannwgBridgend + Vale of Glamorgan2 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 PlaidIn Gŵyr Abertawe, Reform, Labour and Plaid split the six seats, with Reform edging ahead on three. In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid takes control with three seats, leaving Reform on two and Labour squeezed down to one. Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd is even more fragmented, with Reform on three, Labour and Plaid on one each, plus single seats for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. And in Pen‑y‑bont Bro Morgannwg, Reform and Labour again take two apiece, leaving Plaid and the Conservatives with one each.
This mirrors the trend Swansea Bay News has tracked for months: Reform surging in working‑class valleys and coastal towns, Plaid consolidating its Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion heartlands, and Labour squeezed from both sides. The new numbers show Plaid clawing back ground, especially among younger voters and Welsh speakers, while Reform’s momentum has slowed.
Demographic divides deepen
The poll highlights stark splits:
- Men lean Reform (29%), while women lean Plaid (27%).
- Young voters (16–34) back Plaid (31%) and Labour (28%), leaving Reform trailing at 14%.
- Middle‑aged voters (35–54) give Reform a commanding 36%.
- Welsh speakers overwhelmingly back Plaid (41%), while non‑Welsh speakers put Reform ahead (31%).
These divides underline the cultural and generational fault lines running through South West Wales, with Reform strongest among older, non‑Welsh‑speaking voters and Plaid dominant among younger, Welsh‑speaking communities.
From landslide to stalemate
Just months ago, Reform were riding high in South West Wales, with polls showing them pulling ahead while Plaid slipped and Labour edged back. Warnings from the First Minister that a Reform or Plaid victory could plunge Wales into “chaos” reflected that momentum. Now, the picture is more complicated: Reform’s surge has stalled, Plaid has recovered, and Labour remains stuck in third place.
The result? A looming stalemate. With no party anywhere near a majority, South West Wales’ six‑seat constituencies could decide whether Wales ends up with a Reform‑dominated Senedd, a Plaid‑Labour coalition, or another fragile cooperation deal.
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