Plaid storms ahead as Labour vote collapses in Wales

A YouGov/Cardiff University survey of 2,500 adults across Wales shows Plaid on course to become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since devolution began in 1999. Reform UK trails narrowly on 30%, while Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 10% each. The Greens rise to 9% and the Liberal Democrats to 6%.

Under the new proportional voting system debuting in May 2026, Plaid would secure 39 seats, Reform 34, Labour 10, Conservatives six, Greens four and the Lib Dems three.

Labour dominance shattered by poll shock

Labour has led every Welsh Government since 1999, but the latest figures show the party reduced to historic lows. Once the dominant force in the Welsh‑identifying progressive bloc, Labour now retains only a fraction of its former support.

Cardiff University’s analysis makes clear this isn’t voters abandoning progressive politics altogether — it’s consolidation. Plaid has absorbed the bulk of Welsh‑identifying support, while Reform has swallowed Conservative backing among British‑identifying voters.

Generational divide drives realignment

The raw data reveals a stark split by age. Plaid dominates among younger voters, winning 37% of 18–24s and 31% of 25–34s. Reform surges among older voters, taking 31% of those aged 55–64 and 30% of those aged 65–74. Labour barely registers across all age groups, peaking at just 10%.

Education tells a similar story. Plaid is strongest among graduates, while Reform leads among those with no qualifications.

Voters say why they’re switching

Plaid supporters overwhelmingly cite “standing up for Wales” as their reason for switching, with nearly half of respondents choosing that option. A further fifth back Plaid tactically as “best placed to stop Reform UK.”

Reform voters are driven by immigration, with 42% saying it is the party’s defining issue. Nigel Farage’s leadership remains a powerful draw, with nearly one in five citing him as the only leader who understands ordinary people’s problems.

What it means for Wales

The poll does not provide constituency‑level figures, but the national trend is clear: Labour’s grip on Wales has loosened dramatically. Even in traditional strongholds, the party’s dominance can no longer be taken for granted.

If these figures hold, Welsh politics faces a generational realignment. For the first time in a century, Labour faces the prospect of opposition or junior coalition status, while Plaid Cymru is poised to lead the Senedd.

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New figures reveal Wales set to lose £6bn in rail funding row

Billions lost, investment bypasses rural Wales

Wales is set to miss out on another £1.3–£1.6 billion in transport funding after the UK Labour Government confirmed Northern Powerhouse Rail will go ahead as an “England and Wales” project.

The scheme, designed to link Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds, will not include a single centimetre of track in Wales. By classifying it as “England and Wales”, the Treasury avoids triggering Barnett consequentials that would have delivered funding for Welsh rail.

It follows similar decisions on HS2, the high‑speed line between London, Birmingham and Manchester, and East‑West Rail, which links Oxford and Cambridge. Together, those projects have already cost Wales up to £4.3 billion in lost investment. Combined, campaigners say Wales could now be short by around £6 billion.

Scotland and Northern Ireland cash in

While Wales is left empty‑handed, Scotland is set to receive £2.7 billion and Northern Ireland just under £1 billion as a result of Northern Powerhouse Rail.

A Treasury spokesperson said:

“Wales will benefit from £445 million of rail investment over the next decade — the biggest ever funding boost for Welsh rail.”

Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens has also defended the classification of projects like HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail as “England and Wales” schemes, arguing that Wales benefits indirectly from improved connections across the UK rail network.

Welsh Government stresses cooperation

First Minister Eluned Morgan said:

“We will continue to press for further commitments, including electrification of the North and South Mainlines, which remain vital for Wales’s future.”

She added that the settlement would deliver “significant extra investment in rail infrastructure” and emphasised the need for cooperation between governments.

Opposition parties cry foul

Plaid Cymru Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP said:

“Wales is owed billions from HS2 and now Northern Powerhouse Rail. Labour has failed to address chronic underfunding of our railways, and our communities are paying the price.”

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth also accused Labour of leaving Wales “short‑changed again” and said the First Minister had “no influence” over her Westminster colleagues.

Lib Dems demand devolved powers

Welsh Liberal Democrat Westminster spokesperson David Chadwick MP said:

“This Labour Government is deliberately depriving Welsh communities of billions of pounds in transport funding, whilst expecting a pat on the back for delivering crumbs.

Labour has the power to change the system and stop these funding scandals, but has made its position clear — they are happy for Wales to be left behind, paying for megaprojects in England whilst our own rail and transport infrastructure collapses.”

Mid and West Wales left behind

Local campaigners say the funding gap is most keenly felt in Mid and West Wales, where rail services remain patchy and major projects have stalled.

Carl Peters‑Bond, independent candidate for the new Caerfyrddin constituency in next year’s Senedd elections, said:

“We’re told Wales is getting investment, but Mid and West Wales see none of it. Communities from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth are crying out for rail connectivity, yet billions are being spent on lines hundreds of miles away. It’s a betrayal of rural Wales.

Both Westminster and Cardiff need to stop playing politics and start building the infrastructure our communities desperately need. People here don’t want excuses — they want action.”

West Wales line campaign highlights the gap

The row comes just days after campaigners renewed calls for funding to restore the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth rail line, axed in the 1960s.

As Swansea Bay News reported at the weekend, supporters say reopening the line would transform connectivity across West Wales, boost the economy, and cut car dependency. Campaigners argue that the billions Wales is missing out on could easily fund projects like the Carmarthen–Aberystwyth line, yet instead the money is being spent on rail schemes in England.

Creaking infrastructure, growing anger

With rail electrification stalled and public transport under strain, campaigners warn the funding gap leaves Wales at risk of falling further behind.

The row adds to growing pressure on Labour to explain why Wales is repeatedly excluded from consequential funding, while neighbouring nations benefit.

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Plaid Cymru pledges independence plan but rules out referendum in first term

Commission to shape debate on Wales’ future

Delegates at the annual conference backed a motion to establish a standing commission to engage the public on constitutional issues and prepare a white paper on independence.

The proposal builds on the work of the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, which earlier this year concluded that independence was a viable option, though one that would involve “hard choices in the short to medium term.”

Ap Iorwerth said the commission would “kick‑start the national debate on independence” and gather evidence in a first Plaid term, but stressed that a referendum would only be considered later.

‘Two very different futures’

Opening his speech in Swansea, ap Iorwerth described the city as “Copperopolis” — shaped by the growth of the copper industry — and said Wales now faced a historic choice.

“Today, with a historic nation‑building opportunity before us, I’m going to set out the choice facing Wales – two very different futures but only one credible option,” he told members.

He argued that change was “inevitable and long overdue” and urged voters to “come with us” on a path where Wales could fulfil its potential rather than “settle for what we have.”

A formal path to a referendum

The motion passed by members said Wales was “on a journey to independence” and that enhancing devolution could form part of that path. It called for the standing commission to prepare a white paper, setting out the formal steps towards a referendum.

Ap Iorwerth told delegates:

“The motion looks to the future… and the need ultimately for a white paper which would set the formal path towards asking the people of Wales in a referendum. We make it clear it is us that should call the referendum when the time is right. But that’s not for now or the next government.”

Positioning Plaid as government‑in‑waiting

The Plaid leader used the conference to present his party as ready to replace Welsh Labour at the 2026 Senedd election. He said Plaid would lead Wales “unleashed from its shackles” and promised a “fresh start under new leadership.”

He contrasted Plaid’s vision with what he described as Labour’s failure to stand up for Wales, citing the loss of virgin steelmaking in Port Talbot, and warned against the threat of Reform UK, which he said would seek to abolish the Senedd.

Context: from referendum pledge to phased approach

Plaid’s stance marks a shift from its 2021 manifesto under former leader Adam Price, which promised a referendum within five years. Ap Iorwerth has since ruled out a vote in the first term of a Plaid‑led government, instead focusing on building public engagement and laying the groundwork for a future decision.

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