Spaceflight ๐#SpaceDebris ๐๏ธ reentry ๐ฅ expected between approximately 15:35 CET and 22:25 CET on ๐ 8 March https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/Reentry_of_International_Space_Station_ISS_batteries_into_Earth_s_atmosphere
#SpaceDebris reentry : The #EU ๐ช๐บ #SpaceSurveillance and Tracking confirms that object #ISS DEB (EP BATTERY) decayed within the last estimated re-entry window (2024-03-08 19:13 UTC ยฑ30 minutes) https://www.eusst.eu/newsroom/eu-sst-monitors-reentry-object-issdeb/
"If it is a human-made #SpaceObject which was launched into space ๐ by another country, which caused damage ๐ฅ on #Earth, that country would be absolutely liable to the homeowner ๐ก for the damage caused." https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/trash-from-the-international-space-station-may-have-hit-a-house-in-florida/
A month later, #NASA released a public statement taking responsibility. โThe hardware was expected to fully burn up during entry through Earthโs atmosphereโ https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-04-16/nasa-says-space-junk-that-crashed-into-florida-home-was-from-iss
#NASA incorrectly believed the batteries would completely burn up. There have been some close calls : a piece of the doomed #SpaceShuttle #Columbia crashing into a Texas dentist's office in ๐ 2003, large wreckage from a Chinese ๐จ๐ณ #LongMarch 5B rocket damaging a village in the Republic of Cรดte d'Ivoire ๐จ๐ฎ, a spate of trunk debris from #SpaceX #CrewDragon missions that have landed in the United States ๐บ๐ธ, Australia ๐ฆ๐บ, and elsewhere. https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/family-whose-roof-was-damaged-by-space-debris-files-claims-against-nasa/
Ariane 5 upper stages are located mainly in #GTO & just a small delta-v (1,6km/s) is left to reach the #Moon ๐. Since the debris ๐๏ธ is picked up in orbit, small propulsion units are sufficient for the remaining transport to the moon. More than 150 tons of #aluminum can be regained โป๏ธ from #Ariane5 upper stages alone. This saves more than โฌ50 billions ๐ฐ of tax money in transportation costs compared to #SLS or #Ariane6 launchers. https://activities.esa.int/4000132842
A collection of academics from #universities around the world ๐ propose turning the potential catastrophe into a resource. By ๐ 2050, #GatewayEarth โ a fully operational #SpaceStation with a facility to recycle โป๏ธ old #satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ and other junk โ could be up and running. https://theconversation.com/space-junk-a-recycling-station-could-be-cleaning-up-in-earth-orbit-by-2050-119787
Objects in #LEO
๐ 2013 : 3,890
๐ 2023 : 10,225
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/space-objects-by-orbit
#LeoLabs said it was likely the number of #debris pieces exceeds 900, making the event one of the largest ever. The debris ๐๏ธ cloud, created at roughly 800 kilometres in altitude, will last several years. Over 1,100 satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ and other objects in space are at risk of colliding ๐ฅ with the #Chinese ๐จ๐ณ debris https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/chinese-rockets-breakup-puts-over-1000-satellites-other-objects-risk-2024-08-09/
Chinese rocket's breakup puts over 1,000 satellites and other objects at risk
A Chinese rocket stage that broke apart in space this week created more than 700 pieces of debris, putting over 1,000 satellites and other objects in a high-traffic region of Earth's orbit at risk of hazardous collisions, analysts said on Friday.
#Starlink #satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ now maneuver 275 times per day to avoid space objects. "I would have expected that increasing the size of the constellation would have led to a higher number of maneuvers, but I suspect that the increasing #solar โ๏ธ activity is also causing a reduction in the #debris population around the Starlink altitude. These two competing effects seem to be resulting in the apparent stabilization of the number of maneuvers." https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-50000-collision-avoidance-maneuvers-space-safety
Of human-made objects in #space ๐ right now around 90% ๐ are useless. Though no one has been killed ๐ by #SpaceDebris reentry, #NASA estimates one piece of junk returns to #Earth every day. An estimated 170 million pieces of space debris are in Earthโs orbit, around 35,000 of which are large enough to be tracked https://www.nationalgeographic.com/impact/article/moriba-jah-explorer-story
The #ZeroDebris Charter was signed by 15 countries and over 100 companies
https://www.space.com/europe-space-junk-zero-debris-charter-100-partners-iac
The world needs a new convention governing space conduct. Treaties forged in the 1960s and 1970s prohibit ๐ซ countries from touching anotherโs material. An exception for cleaning up trash is in order, along with general rules about orbital cleanliness and garbage disposal ๐๏ธ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/space-trash-debris-spacex
Collision-avoidance maneuvers are not uncommon around the #moon ๐. The #Korea ๐ฐ๐ท Aerospace Research Institute (#KARI) received 40 "red alarms" of potential collisions ๐ฅ. There is currently no international protocol to resolve collision risks. "Sometimes, we did not have the contact information of the responsible personnel, and network security issues occasionally prevented email exchanges" https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/indias-chandrayaan-2-moon-orbiter-avoids-collision-with-south-koreas-danuri-spacecraft
#ESA estimated that there were more than 14,000 tons of material in #LEO. The amount will continue to increase ๐. And more of these objects are falling back down to #Earth, without breaking up ๐ฅ on re-entry as they are expected to. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/02/world/africa/kenya-space-debris-rocket.html
A 1.5 meter by one meter chunk from an unidentified object was found near the western city of #Poznan ๐ต๐ฑ, the composite material resembled a #Falcon9 fuel tank https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-debris-enters-atmosphere-poland-unidentified-object-found
Unidentified objects found on ground after SpaceX debris enters atmosphere over Poland
The debris left spectacular luminous trails visible in the sky in western Poland, according to witnesses.
@planet4589 : โSo far, weโve been lucky and no one has been #hurt, but the more we put into the Earthโs orbit, the more likely it is that our luck will run out.โ https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-02-20/spacex-rocket-debris-crash-lands-poland
An unidentified object fell into a pond near a property in #Bฤdzimierowice ๐ต๐ฑ, the resident checked her surveillance footage after noticing a 30 cm-wide hole ๐ณ๏ธ in the pond. https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7789/Artykul/3487293,another-falcon-9-debris-falls-in-poland-as-more-reentries-expected
The Polish ๐ต๐ฑ #SpaceAgency (#POLSA) stated that its Space Security Department โconstantly monitors and analyzes threats in outer space originating from artificial objects, including rocketsโ. In a 28 February POLSA update, the agency confirmed that the information regarding the uncontrolled re-entry of the #Falcon9 second stage had been sent to the wrong email โ๏ธ addresses at the Ministry of National Defence. On 11 March, the POLSA President had been officially dismissed. https://europeanspaceflight.com/polish-space-agency-president-sacked-over-falcon-9-debris-controversy/
If #Kosmos482 survives re-entry, the spacecraft will be going around 150 miles an hour, when it smashes into whatever it smashes into. Experts donโt yet know where it may come down. @planet4589 : โImagine putting your car into a wall at 150 miles an hour and seeing how much of it is leftโ https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/science/kosmos-482-soviet-spacecraft-reentry.html
Around 100 nations are involved in varying levels of #space activity. Since the 1950s, almost 20,000 #satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ have been launched into Earthโs orbit. These satellites bring immense benefits to #society, from monitoring ecosystems and supporting global #communications, to facilitating services such as satellite #television and contactless bank card payments. However,...https://www.plymouth.ac.uk/news/a-sustainable-development-goal-for-space
Uncontrolled reentries of space objects create a collision ๐ฅ risk with aircraft โ๏ธ in flight. The highest-density regions have a 0.8% chance per year of being affected. This rate rises to 26% ๐ for larger areas of #airspace, such as that found in the #US ๐บ๐ธ , #Europe ๐ช๐บ, or around major cities in the #AsiaPacific ๐ธ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฐ ๐น๐ญ๐จ๐ณ ๐ฆ๐บ region. The collision risk could be mitigated if controlled reentries into the ocean were required for all missions. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-84001-2
Airspace closures due to reentering space objects - Scientific Reports
Uncontrolled reentries of space objects create a collision risk with aircraft in flight. While the probability of a strike is low, the consequences could be catastrophic. Moreover, the risk is rising due to increases in both reentries and flights. In response, national authorities may choose to preemptively close airspace during reentry events; some have already done so. We determine the probability for a rocket body reentry within airspace over a range of air traffic densities. The highest-density regions, around major airports, have a 0.8% chance per year of being affected by an uncontrolled reentry. This rate rises to 26% for larger but still busy areas of airspace, such as that found in the northeastern United States, northern Europe, or around major cities in the Asia-Pacific region. For a given reentry, the collision risk in the underlying airspace increases with the air traffic density. However, the economic consequences of flight delays also increase should that airspace be closed. This situation puts national authorities in a dilemmaโto close airspace or notโwith safety and economic implications either way. The collision risk could be mitigated if controlled reentries into the ocean were required for all missions. However, over 2300 rocket bodies are already in orbit and will eventually reenter in an uncontrolled manner. Airspace authorities will face the challenge of uncontrolled reentries for decades to come.
Annual number of objects ๐ฐ๏ธ launched into #space ๐ https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?time=1991..latest by #OurWorldInData
We need #spacecraft that can approach ageing #satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ and dock with them, using #robots to repair ๐ง, refuel โฝ and upgrade them. Weโll also need a way to reuse and recycle โป๏ธ satellites when their working lives are over. Different types of trash ๐๏ธ require different removal techniques, with many ideas coming from the #fishing ๐ฃ industry https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-space-junk-crisis-needs-a-recycling-revolution/
๐จ๐ณ #Shijian25 is expected to use its robotic arms to latch onto #Shijian21 and replenish its fuel โฝ. The latter used up much of its propellant in 2022 while towing a defunct #BeiDou navigation satellite ๐ฐ๏ธ into a higher graveyard orbit. @planet4589 said the behaviour of the #American ๐บ๐ธ satellites was highly uncommon. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3314364/chinas-landmark-orbital-refuelling-mission-why-2-us-spy-satellites-hover-nearby
With #ESA launching a third initiative in less than a year, itโs clear that in-orbit life extension ๐งโฝ is a priority for the agency https://europeanspaceflight.com/esa-to-launch-in-orbit-refuelling-demonstration-mission
Every year, flights ๐ซ and rocket launches increase ๐. Last year, there were 258 successful #rocket launches ๐ and a record 120 uncontrolled re-entries by rockets โ and there are more than 2,300 rocket bodies still in orbit ๐ https://www.independent.co.uk/space/rocket-launch-spacex-planes-danger-debris-b2692856.html
The management of common pool resources depends crucially on the existence and effectiveness of the #rules and institutions to govern their use.
For #space activities, this translates into human activities potentially littering Earthโs orbits beyond sustainable limits, creating #SpaceDebris that could reduce the value of space activities by increasing the risk of damaging collisions ๐ฅ and requiring mitigation actions. https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2020/04/space-sustainability_a2d8e17f/a339de43-en.pdf
There are no binding #international rules governing the management and prevention of the growth of debris in space ๐. Space-faring countries have established #guidelines, but they are not sufficient to guarantee a #sustainable space environment. https://www.internationalinsurance.org/insights_cyber_the_space_debris_dilemma
There is a general consensus that more ambitious actions are urgently needed from all space stakeholders to minimise the unintentional release of debris; to avoid the #intentional release of debris; to anticipate and mitigate the impact of debris on human populations, infrastructure, and Earthโs #environment https://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/spacesafety/Zero_Debris_Technical_Booklet.pdf
#BlueOrigin rocketโs nose cone washed up on the shore of a #Bahamian island. In #Europe, flaming debris from a #SpaceX launch vehicle streaked across the #German sky, and what appears to be a fuel tank may have landed on a companyโs property in #Poland.
And thatโs just this week. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/21/science/blue-origin-spacex-debris-bahamas-europe/index.html
โEventually someoneโs going to get killed ๐ by a piece of #SpaceDebris.There are plenty of cases of peopleโs property being hit ๐ฅ by space debrisโ. The threat of getting hit by uncontrolled orbital #reentries has increased ๐ by a factor of four from 2010 to 2023 https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/01/30/falling-space-debris-seismometers
Cutting staff from the #SpaceTraffic program, which currently alerts #satellite ๐ฐ๏ธ operators of potential collisions ๐ฅ with debris or other spacecraft, complicates a years-long effort to migrate those alerting โ ๏ธ duties out of the Pentagon. A #collision notice is an alert that a satellite could collide with another object in space.
"We are not talking a few dozen per year. We are talking tens of thousands" https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/trump-layoffs-hit-key-air-traffic-control-space-unit-2025-03-01
Active #satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ must perform an increasing ๐ number of #collision avoidance manoeuvres to dodge out of the way of other satellites and fragments of #SpaceDebris. Another factor is the high level of solar โ๏ธ activity which can often cause increased atmospheric drag. If we extrapolate current trends into the future, catastrophic collision ๐ฅ numbers could rise ๐ significantly https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_Space_Environment_Report_2024
#monitoring #automation #KesslerSyndrome #CollisionAvoidance #SpaceWeather #ESA
๐ 2019 #ESA is "working to #automate the process of collision avoidance" https://www.cnet.com/science/esa-spacex-starlink-satellite-nearly-collides-with-european-aeolus-satellite
15/01/2025 "Improve #SpaceTraffic surveillance and coordination" still on the #ToDo list https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Technological_to-do_list_to_reach_Zero_Debris_created ... "This will โณ require compatibility of different #automated systems" https://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/spacesafety/Zero_Debris_Technical_Booklet.pdf ๐ฅฑ
Fragmentations without collisions were the main cause of the creation of #SpaceDebris in 2024, according to #ESA. There are around 54,000 objects in Earth orbit with a diameter of more than 10 centimeters and 1.2 million between 1 and 10 centimeters, between 1 millimeter and 1 centimeter around 130 million. https://www.heise.de/en/news/ESA-report-warns-of-space-debris-and-overcrowded-orbit-10348061.html
#ESA & #UNOOSA #SpaceDebris infographics : 26,67 % ๐ #intentional breakup events. Red objects are not yet registered with the #UN, and are expected to rise ๐ https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_UNOOSA_space_debris_infographics_and_podcast
The #Persei E.T. Pack mission will test a kilometre-long aluminium tether, designed to slow and deorbit a #satellite without propellant while maintaining stability and avoiding collision risks https://europeanspaceflight.com/avio-and-isar-aerospace-win-esa-flight-ticket-initiative-launch-contracts
Without these 50 objects, the risk of new debris being created ๐ฅ would be halved. If only the 10 most dangerous objects were removed, it would drop by a third ๐ https://www.heise.de/en/news/Experts-identify-the-50-most-dangerous-pieces-of-space-debris-10728122.html
The most active region on the #Sun โ๏ธ is currently rotating to face #Earth, leading to forecasts of more significant #SpaceWeather https://www.independent.co.uk/space/nasa-solar-flare-warning-earth-blackout-b2754154.html
#TRACERSโ observations will help scientists better understand how #SpaceWeather events can affect #satellites ๐ฐ๏ธ and #communications ๐ถ https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/tracers-launch-to-study-space-weather
A coronal mass ejection (#CME) that erupted from the sun โ๏ธ on Saturday slammed into Earthโs magnetic field late last night, triggering a G2 (moderate) #geomagnetic storm. And forecasters expect geomagnetic activity to intensify tonight, with potential G3 (strong) storms and even a slight chance of G4 (#severe) conditions https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
A powerful M5 # solar โ๏ธ flare erupted at 9:25 UTC this morning. This flare, the strongest of November so far, triggered an R2 (moderate) radio blackout over southern #Africa ๐. No Earth-directed #CMEs have been confirmed so far https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
An #ESA simulation campaign replicated the effects of a catastrophic #SolarStorm on satellite ๐ฐ๏ธ operations. Should such a storm occur, #satellite drag could increase by 400%, pushing them out of their usual trajectories, causing collision ๐ฅ warnings with #SpaceDebris and other spacecraft. #Radiation โข๏ธ levels also surged, damaging #electronics and materials. "It's not a question of if this will happen but when" https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_weather/Flying_through_the_biggest_solar_storm_ever_recorded
Flying through the biggest solar storm ever recorded
No communication or navigation, faulty electronics and collision risk. At ESAโs mission control in Darmstadt, teams faced a scenario unlike any before: a solar storm of extreme magnitude. Fortunately, this nightmare unfolded not in reality, but as part of the simulation campaign for Sentinel-1D, pushing the boundaries of spacecraft operations and space weather preparedness.
Radiation โข๏ธ -triggered #computer errors could lead to an "uncommanded" change in altitude ๐ฌ so severe that it might exceed "the aircraft's structural capability" ๐ฅ. As #computer chips have become smaller, they have also become more vulnerable to bit flips https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20251201-how-cosmic-rays-grounded-thousands-of-aircraft
Intense #solar โ๏ธ #radiation may corrupt data critical to the functioning of flight โ๏ธ controls ๐น๏ธ https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-11-airbus-update-on-a320-family-precautionary-fleet-action
#SpaceWeather effects affect our technological systems. The currents a #geomagnetic storm induces in power lines can destroy transformers. For long-distance power lines aligned parallel to the geoelectric fields, the induced voltage can be thousands of volts. Many of todayโs #electrical systems are built around #computer chips that are not robust to high-voltage surges. The hardest-hit regions could be without #power for days or weeks until equipment could be delivered https://spectrum.ieee.org/us-regions-most-vulnerable-solar-storms
Civilian and #military operators alike need spacecraft that can withstand the brutal conditions of #space ๐. That means resistance to #radiation โข๏ธ, to heat, to #electromagnetic pulses and to targeted disruption. Forms of technology that make #satellites more resilient will also cut costs and improve #civilian services. #Berlin plans to spend 35 billion euros ๐ฐ on military space capabilities between now and 2030. The challenge is speed โฑ๏ธ and #regulation https://spacenews.com/what-germany-got-right-and-wrong-in-its-first-ever-space-strategy/
#Europe ๐ช๐บ 2025 : mostly statements of intent, words like โplan,โ โcapacity,โ โinvestment,โ and โbuildโ. The growth in public and private funds ๐ฐ was due to the widespread recognition that #space is vital to the modern age. While there was a lot to celebrate in 2025, the work is only just beginning https://payloadspace.com/2025-europe-in-review
The #FAA said debris hit one vehicle on the ground in South Caicos ๐น๐จ Island after the Jan. 16 breakup. The rocket breakups ๐ฅ in January and earlier this month caused 414 departure delays for aircraft and 80 diversions or holds for planes โ๏ธ already aloft https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/spacex-starship-explosions-flights-delayed-costs-20221722.php
#Spacecraft ๐๐ฐ๏ธ debris re-entry into the atmosphere should not pose an undue risk to people or property. Using 0,0001 as the upper limit for the expected number of human casualties ๐ฅ๐ per re-entry is recommended.
#IADC #SpaceDebris mitigation guidelines ๐ 2025-01-16 https://iadc-home.org/documents_public/view/id/82
#UN register of objects launched into outer #space ๐ (~ 88% of all) https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/spaceobjectregister/index.html
The Barents Sea supports the world's largest cod #fishery ๐ฃ. #Hydrazine fuels are known to cause #cancer after respiratory exposure or ingestion in humans. #Russia has dropped rocket ๐ stages fueled with unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (#UDMH) into the Barents Sea. The #ESA should encourage Russia to move to its new generation of #Soyuz and #Angara rockets https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/polar-record/article/toxic-splash-russian-rocket-stages-dropped-in-arctic-waters-raise-health-environmental-and-legal-concerns/EAC6047606BDFFE6F8361F91EF02D14B#sec10
#RokotM launches 2026 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_October%E2%80%93December_2026
Rockot : https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/FutureEO/SMOS/Launcher
The #EU ๐ช๐บ Space Surveillance is closely following the second stage of a launch vehicle to refine the re-entry window, which is currently estimated to be today at 11:20 UTC. Latest update: 2026-01-30 09:30 UTC+1. A ground track for the re-entry window is being continuously updated, and the current window will be refined as more data becomes available https://www.eusst.eu/newsroom/news/eu-sst-closely-monitors-upcoming-re-entry-space-object-zq-3-rb
EU SST closely monitors upcoming re-entry of space object ZQ-3 R/B
Due to its inclination of approximately 56.94 degrees, the object can re-enter within a latitude band of ยฑ57 degrees, covering a vast area of the Earth's surface, although most of it is ocean or uninhabited. The Italian Operations Centre, responsible for the EU SST Re-entry Analysis service, is working to narrow down the possible re-entry location and time. As the re-entry approaches, the predictions will become more accurate, but uncertainties remain due to the object's uncontrolled nature.
#SpaceDebris recycling โป๏ธ to supply raw materials for construction on the #Moon ๐ https://nebula.esa.int/content/analysis-space-debris-recycling-potential-supply-raw-materials-construction-moon
Khleedril@spaceflight Do we think it would clean up faster than new mess is created?