Zero tariffs, same structure: Africa must change how it trades with China - Mander
cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/51467989
[https://mander.xyz/post/51467989] > This is an opinion pieve based on a lecture
held by Nardos Bekele-Thomas, CEO of AUDA-NEPAD, the African Union Development
Agency. > > … > > The numbers tell one story. In 2025, China–Africa trade
reached a record $348 billion, with Chinese exports to Africa rising to $225
billion and African exports to China reaching $123 billion. By any measure, this
is a relationship of enormous scale — and one that has expanded dramatically
over the past two decades. > > But there is another story running alongside the
headline figures, and it is less comfortable. “The deficit remains
overwhelmingly on the African side,” Bekele-Thomas told the gathering, “and the
structure of trade is still defined far more by raw material flows than by
African industrial depth.” > > … > > “The issue before us is no longer whether
Africa trades with China. It clearly does — and at scale. The real issue is how
Africa trades with China, in what form, at what level of value, and with what
developmental outcome.” > > … > > The immediate backdrop to her remarks was
China’s announcement that from 1 May 2026, it will implement zero-tariff
treatment for imports from the 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic
relations. Politically, the move carries real weight. At a time when much of the
global trading system is moving in the opposite direction. > > … > > But she was
equally clear about what tariff preferences, on their own, can and cannot
achieve. “Tariff preferences, by themselves, do not industrialise economies.
They lower one barrier. They do not build production systems. They do not
finance enterprise growth. They do not fix logistics. They do not create
standards capacity.” > > … > > [Even before China’s announcement] around 70
percent of African exports to China were entering duty-free, with another 22
percent facing tariffs below five percent. “That tells us something very
important,” she said. “The central constraint has never been tariffs alone. The
deeper constraint has been productive readiness — the ability to produce at
scale, meet standards consistently, finance orders, move goods competitively,
and supply markets with reliability.” > > … > > Where Bekele-Thomas centred much
of her argument was on the composition of trade rather than its overall size.
“If Africa continues to send crude oil, copper, cobalt and iron ore into the
Chinese market while importing machinery, electronics, solar equipment and other
higher-value goods,” she cautioned, “then zero tariffs will alter the margin of
trade without changing its structure.” > > … > > Critically, she argued this
cannot be achieved in pieces. “No single African economy, acting alone, will
maximise this opening across multiple sectors at the scale required.” Regional
production systems, corridor-based value chains, and the architecture of the
AfCFTA offer the more realistic path. By 2035, the AfCFTA could increase
Africa’s total exports by almost 29 percent, raise intra-African exports by more
than 81 percent, and grow exports to non-African countries by 19 percent.
“Africa will not build durable export competitiveness for China — or for any
other major market — without first building stronger regional value chains,
larger integrated production systems, and more efficient continental logistics.”
> > … > > Bekele-Thomas outlined three shifts she believes are essential if this
moment is to translate into lasting transformation. > > - The first is moving
from fragmented national responses to a coordinated African strategy. “The risk
before us is not only that Africa may move too slowly. It is that Africa may
move in pieces.” A market opening of this scale, she argued, “cannot be
approached through 53 disconnected export pushes, 53 separate market signals,
and 53 competing attempts to secure the same buyers, the same quota space, and
the same investment flows. That would not strengthen Africa’s position. It would
weaken it.” What is needed instead is “a common African commercial logic: shared
market intelligence, disciplined quota monitoring, aligned engagement with
Chinese institutions, and a continental view of where our competitive strengths
truly lie.” … > > - The second shift is from raw material dependence to
value-added regional production. “The central weakness in Africa–China trade is
not that Africa is absent from the relationship. It is that Africa is still
positioned too low within it.” The task, as she framed it, is to change the
composition of trade, not merely its scale. “We must move with intention into
processing, beneficiation, agro-processing and light manufacturing. We must
retain more value before export.” And no single economy, she stressed, will do
this at scale on its own. “But regional production systems can. Corridor-based
value chains can. The AfCFTA can.” The answer, she said, is “not a collection of
isolated national export plans, but a continental production strategy in which
countries specialise, complement one another, and build a common African offer
with real industrial depth.” > > - The third shift is from tariff access alone
to what she called full-spectrum trade enablement. “The real barriers now are
not only at the border. They lie in standards, certification, traceability,
logistics, working capital, regulatory approval and institutional readiness.
Market access on paper is not the same as market access in practice.” A zero
tariff, she noted, “does not move a shipment through a weak corridor. It does
not certify a facility. It does not finance an SME. It does not satisfy SPS
requirements. It does not secure GACC registration. And it does not build trust
with buyers who need quality, consistency and reliability.” The next frontier,
she argued, is implementation — “quality infrastructure, accredited
laboratories, inspection systems, facility registration, export readiness, trade
finance and real-time market information.” > > … > > Larger volumes flowing
through an unchanged trade structure can look like progress. But if Africa
continues to export primary commodities into a tariff-free Chinese market while
importing finished goods in return, the margin of trade will have changed while
its character has not. “We will simply move larger volumes through an old
structure of dependency,” she warned, “and mistake that movement for progress.”
> > “If Africa gets these three shifts right,” she argued, “then China’s
tariff-free offer will not be remembered merely as a policy announcement or a
trade concession. It will be remembered as a strategic inflection point — the
moment Africa chose to organise itself differently, to produce more ambitiously,
and to compete from a stronger place in the world.” > > … > > Web Archive link
[https://web.archive.org/web/20260502165658/https://african.business/2026/04/partner-content/zero-tariffs-same-structure-africa-must-change-how-it-trades-with-china]
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