In this recent #FT piece

https://www.ft.com/content/8192467e-e9d7-4c0a-ab0d-59bd6351a1bb

(paywalled, unfortunately), #KarlFriston gets to say, once more (this time in his role as chief scientist of #VersesAI), that active inference and the #FEP will allow #AI to have true agency.

This is utter bullshit.

Agency requires #RelevanceRealization but Friston's framework cannot deal with that. You will not get true agency from that. It's sill purely about problem *solving*, not *framing*.

Client Challenge

Conscious AI Is the Second-Scariest Kind

<span>A cutting-edge theory of mind suggests a new type of doomsday scenario.</span>

The Atlantic

Testing Predictions of Surprisal Theory in 11 Languages
https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.03667

A fundamental result in psycholinguistics: Less predictable words take longer to process
Theoretical explanation for this finding is Surprisal Theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_in_language_comprehension#Surprisal_theory

Aside: surprisal (surprise) is a tenet of Friston's Free Energy Principle
https://mastodon.social/@persagen/110582825938232359

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10539-022-09864-z.pdf
Surprisal of x = log(1/p(x))
...

#SurprisalTheory #KarlFriston #FreeEnergyPrinciple #TheoriesOfConsciousness #surprisal

Testing the Predictions of Surprisal Theory in 11 Languages

A fundamental result in psycholinguistics is that less predictable words take a longer time to process. One theoretical explanation for this finding is Surprisal Theory (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008), which quantifies a word's predictability as its surprisal, i.e. its negative log-probability given a context. While evidence supporting the predictions of Surprisal Theory have been replicated widely, most have focused on a very narrow slice of data: native English speakers reading English texts. Indeed, no comprehensive multilingual analysis exists. We address this gap in the current literature by investigating the relationship between surprisal and reading times in eleven different languages, distributed across five language families. Deriving estimates from language models trained on monolingual and multilingual corpora, we test three predictions associated with surprisal theory: (i) whether surprisal is predictive of reading times; (ii) whether expected surprisal, i.e. contextual entropy, is predictive of reading times; (iii) and whether the linking function between surprisal and reading times is linear. We find that all three predictions are borne out crosslinguistically. By focusing on a more diverse set of languages, we argue that these results offer the most robust link to-date between information theory and incremental language processing across languages.

arXiv.org

* Comment: briefly mentions the absolutely brilliant Karl Friston (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_J._Friston):

Karl Friston argued that the conscious processing can be interpreted as a statistical inference problem of inferring causes of sensory observations. Therefore, minimizing the surprise (negative log probability of an event) may lead to self-consciousness, in consistent with the hypothesis that the brain is a prediction machine.

https://northboot.xyz/search?q=Karl+Friston

#TheoryOfConsciousness #TheoryOfMind #KarlFriston

Karl J. Friston - Wikipedia

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