Spaceflight 🚀The first #Starhopper flight was in 📆 2019. First #Starship landing (without #RUD 💥) 📆 2021. First #atmospheric entry 📆 2024. When do you expect the first (uncrewed) Starship #Mars 🔴 landing attempt ? 🤔
2025
2027
2029
> 2030
Poll ended at .
#SpaceX will launch its first #Starships 🚀 to #Mars 🔴 in two years. "These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars" https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/musk-says-spacex-launch-first-uncrewed-starships-mars-two-years-2024-09-07/
Possible settlement locations on #Mars 🔴 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonization_of_Mars#Possible_settlement_locations
Map 🗺️ https://marble.kde.org/install.php
Picture : Mars before and after #DustStorm https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mars_Before_and_After_Dust_Storm_-_PIA22487.gif
"We’ll never live in #space" 🌌 (Scientific American Magazine October 2023) 🤔 https://listverse.com/2019/05/14/10-quotes-from-experts-who-were-proved-wrong
If the uncrewed test missions succeed, #crewed 👨🚀 👩🚀 missions are expected in 📆 2028 https://www.cnet.com/science/space/spacex-plans-5-missions-to-mars-by-2026-elon-musk-says/
#Starship will re-enter in the Indian Ocean about 65 minutes after it lifts off from #Starbase. #SpaceX will be attempting to catch 🦾 the #SuperHeavy booster with the launch tower https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIKI7y3DTXk
[4K] Watch SpaceX Catch A Starship Rocket From Space!!! #IFT5
Fifth #Starship flight test 📆 Sun Oct 13, 2024 🕑 14:00 CEST https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YC87WmFN_As
🔴 LIVE: SpaceX Launches Starship for the Fifth Time (and Tries to Catch a Booster)
Some useful payload for greenhouses 🌱 on #Mars 🔴 ? 🤔 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVcQp-WQbF0
How AI Farming Robots Can Fix Agriculture
"If we can avoid disaster for the next two centuries, our species should be safe, as we spread into #space 🌌 ." #StephenHawking https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/aug/09/stephen-hawking-human-race-colonise-space
"The clear necessity of expanding humanity's horizons would cause ... space 🌌 settlements to be built." #IsaacAsimov https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Isaac_Asimov
He really gets to the point https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9tDERFjOMw
Elon Musk’s Mars Dream Gets One Step Closer After SpaceX Catches Booster
"#Mars 🔴 serves as a simplified laboratory for testing #climate models and scenarios, without oceans and biology, that we can then use to better understand 🤔💭 Earth systems." #Mars can tilt more than Earth, causing the Red Planet's poles to receive more direct sunlight than its midlatitudes, making for longer summer days with higher temperatures https://www.space.com/33001-mars-ice-age-ending-now.html
Injecting tiny particles into #Mars’s atmosphere could warm 🌡️ the planet by more than 10°C in a matter of months, researchers find - enough to sustain liquid water 💧. The 2 million tons of particles represent roughly 0.1% of the industrial metals mined ⚒️ on Earth each year. #Terraforming research shows how important it is to study Earth. “Can we understand 🤔💭 #climate and ecosystems well enough to build them elsewhere ?” https://www.science.org/content/article/terraforming-mars-could-be-easier-scientists-thought
The seasonal rise and fall of #methane on #Mars 🔴 is a sign that there is much more to learn about our neighboring planet and that it's holding many secrets beneath its surface https://www.space.com/what-is-behind-martian-methane-mystery
“The barrier to warming #Mars 🔴 to allow liquid water 💧 is not as high as previously thought” : Changing the shape of the planet’s #dust https://news.weinberg.northwestern.edu/2024/08/26/how-we-could-warm-mars/
#ESA #Hubble #SpaceTelescope 🔭 images of #Mars taken December 2024. Thin #water-ice ❄️ clouds are apparent in ultraviolet light https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2025/04/Mars_December_2024
Researchers found that the mid-crust, about 10-20 kilometers down, may be riddled with cracks and pores filled with water 💧. A rough estimate predicts these cracks could hold enough #water to cover all of #Mars 🔴 with an ocean 🌊 1-2 kilometers deep https://www.planetary.org/articles/mars-may-host-oceans-worth-of-water-deep-underground
Only hydrated #minerals as a water source cover the needs to produce propellants and life support #water💧. Extraction from #regolith requires autonomous excavation, transport, processing of regolith and water treatment that present significant challenges. #Atmospheric water harvesting suffers from the extremely low residence time of air in the system. Compression is power-intensive 🪫 but can be competitive if the waste heat from the fission reactors is accessible https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117725012864?via%3Dihub#s0185
Initially expected to launch in 2022, the #ExoMars mission is currently scheduled for launch in 📆 2028. One of the most important elements of the mission is the system designed to slow the descent module from 21,000 km/h to a soft landing 🪂 on the surface of #Mars. https://europeanspaceflight.com/esa-recertifies-exomars-parachutes-after-years-in-storage
Why human 🧑🚀 missions to #Mars 🔴 (8:30) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzhSmnGcSkE
Dr. Levine spent 41 years at #NASA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joel_S._Levine
The Exploration and Colonization of Mars: Why Mars? Why Humans? | Dr. Joel Levine | TEDxRVA
#Starship's total on orbit mass adds to 1510.5 MT, of which 1200 MT are propellant ⛽ and 100 MT payload and the 12 person crew 👩🚀 and their consumables 🍝 for a time of flight of 180 d. According to #SpaceX, their target times of flight between Earth and #Mars are 140 d in 2029, 90 d in 2033 and 80 d in 2035 ⏱️ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54012-0
About feasibility of SpaceX's human exploration Mars mission scenario with Starship - Scientific Reports
After decades where human spaceflight missions have been reserved to low Earth orbit, recent years have seen mission proposals and even implemented plans, e.g. with the mission Artemis I, for returning to the lunar surface. SpaceX has published over various media (e.g., its official website, conference presentations, user manual) conceptual information for its reusable Starship to enable human exploration missions to the Martian surface by the end of the decade. The technological and human challenges associated with these plans are daunting. Such a mission at that distance would require excellent system reliability and in-situ-resource utilization on a grand scale, e.g. to produce propellant. The plans contain little details however and have not yet been reviewed concerning their feasibility. In this paper we show significant technological gaps in these plans. Based on estimates and extrapolated data, a mass model as needed to fulfill SpaceX’s plans could not be reproduced and the subsequent trajectory optimization showed that the current plans do not yield a return flight opportunity, due to a too large system mass. Furthermore, significant gaps exist in relevant technologies, e.g. power supply for the Martian surface. It is unlikely that these gaps can be closed until the end of the decade. We recommend several remedies, e.g. stronger international participation to distribute technology development and thus improve feasibility. Overall, with the limited information published by SpaceX about its system and mission scenario and extrapolation from us to fill information gaps, we were not able to find a feasible Mars mission scenario using Starship, even when assuming optimal conditions such as 100% recovery rate of crew consumables during flight.
Both companies’ plans rely on the availability of an orbital propellant ⛽ depot, which would fuel up their vehicles on the way to the #moon 🌙. The biggest test will be the orbital propellant transfer demonstration https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/spacex-blue-origin-share-new-lunar-landing-profiles/
A single #NewGlenn rocket will be able to send the #BlueMoon lander to the Lunar #Gateway. But the lander won’t have enough #propellant to make a powered descent to the lunar surface https://hackaday.com/2023/12/07/artemis-next-giant-leap-orbital-refueling/
#BlueOrigin will use their Lunar #Transporter for in-space 🌌 cryogenic propellant ⛽ transfer. The Utility Transfer Mechanism was recently tested inside the TS300 thermal vacuum chamber at #NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. The Lunar Transporter will use similar propellant tanks to those flown on the company’s #NewGlenn rocket, and seven #BE7 engines as its main propulsion system https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/10/28/blue-origin-details-lunar-exploration-progress-amid-artemis-3-contract-shakeup/
If #Mars 🔴 could be warmed 🌡️, its air thickened, and its chemistry made more hospitable, the final stages of terraforming would be #biological. Introduce simple plants 🌱. Then insects 🦋. Given time and the right ingredients, #biology can shape a #planet https://www.sciencenewstoday.org/new-study-asks-is-mars-terraforming-even-possible
Chroo 🦠 can live on #Lunar and #Martian soil, and produce #oxygen using only them and photosynthesis. It can even survive the high level of perchlorates found in the Martian soil https://www.universetoday.com/articles/one-extremophile-eats-martian-dirt-survives-in-space-and-can-create-oxygen-for-colonies
One Extremophile Eats Martian Dirt, Survives In Space, And Can Create Oxygen For Colonies
Extremophiles are a favorite tool of astrobiologists. But not only are they good for understanding the kind of extreme environments that life can survive in, sometimes they are useful as actual tools, creating materials necessary for other life, like oxygen, in those extreme environments. A recent paper from Daniella Billi of the University of Rome Tor Vergata , published in pre-print form in Acta Astronautica, reviews how one particular extremophile fills the role of both useful test subject and useful tool all at once.
Scientists have speculated about the possibility of introducing #Chroococcidiopsis 🦠 to the #Martian 🔴 environment to aid in the formation of an aerobic environment. In addition to #oxygen production, Chroococcidiopsis could aid in the formation of #soil on the Martian surface https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chroococcidiopsis#Mars_colonization
It may be feasible to fabricate tiny reflective #nanorods from iron and aluminum found in the #Martian soil and launch them into the #atmosphere. “The interaction of those particles with the incoming sunlight ☀️ would then cause that solar energy to be preferentially forward scattered to the surface. That would then cause a very strong #greenhouse effect, and we can warm it up several tens of degrees.” 🌡️ https://www.ucf.edu/news/ucf-planetary-scientists-expertise-informs-new-method-for-terraforming-mars/
UCF Planetary Scientist’s Expertise Informs New Method for Terraforming Mars
UCF physics researcher Ramses Ramirez and collaborators modeled the efficacy of using Martian nanoparticles to increase the planet’s surface temperature, a key component to making Mars habitable.
60sRefugee@spaceflight That's ambitious; cryogenic refueling and long-term storage in flight still has to be demonstrated. This is virtually uncharted territory.
Thomas Sturm@60sRefugee @spaceflight It will be fascinating to see how large-scale cryogenic fuel transfers work. SpaceX will have to get really good at that for anything else to work.
"Two years down the road it seems feasible.It would be enough for #SpaceX to have a fleet of three launchers, one per pad. The bottleneck may lie in the supply of the thousands of liters of #methane and oxygen needed to maintain a sustained hourly launch rate. Some have proposed building a jetty and a small gas #pipeline so that the fuel can arrive in large methane tankers." https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2024-11-04/elon-musks-plans-to-go-to-mars-within-two-years.html
The proof of concept shows that at the current achievable flow rates of #CO2 and water, it is possible to meet #NASA’s 16-month deadline for refueling #rockets on #Mars 🔴. It can be scaled further to meet tighter rocket refueling ⛽ deadlines. The use of Martian nighttime temperatures for heat 🌡️ exchange can potentially reduce the dependence on power-hungry cryogenic methods for gas liquefaction. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9118664
Thermodynamic modeling of in-situ rocket propellant fabrication on Mars
In-situ resource utilization (ISRU) to refuel rockets on Mars will become critical in the future. The current effort presents a thorough feasibility analysis of a scalable, Matlab-based, integrated ISRU framework from the standpoint of the second ...
For Starship to go to #Mars 🔴, you’ve got to get #Starship tankers ⛽ on orbit and perfect orbital refueling. #SpaceX will have to perfect the #robots 🤖 that will help build spacecraft #LandingPads and human #habitats on the Martian surface, prospect for water 💧 underground, and convert the water and carbon dioxide captured from the atmosphere into vast reservoirs of super-cooled oxygen and methane for the Starships’ return voyage to Earth. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinholdenplatt/2025/03/11/spacexs-starship-plan-to-land-first-humans-on-mars-but-not-till-2031
#Reuters - #Starship is set to depart for #Mars at the end of next year, carrying humanoid bot #Optimus. https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/starship-carrying-teslas-bot-set-mars-by-end-2026-elon-musk-2025-03-15
Time to let the American #broomstick 🧹 fly to #Mars 🔴 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-launches-another-batch-of-starlinks-atop-american-broomstick
Each #technological breakthrough brings us closer to realizing the goal of living on #Mars 🔴. Mars colonization 👩🚀👨🚀 is within our potential reach. This paper has outlined a feasible timeline⌛
📆 2020s: Continued #robotic exploration
📆 2030s: Test missions for human life-support systems and #ISRU ⚒️ on the Martian surface
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10884476
#HumanSpaceflight #SpaceTravel #SpaceExploration #SpaceColonization
Towards sustainable horizons: A comprehensive blueprint for Mars colonization
This paper thoroughly explores the feasibility, challenges, and proposed solutions for establishing a sustainable human colony on Mars. We quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the Martian environment, highlighting key challenges such as ...
"#Musk's timeline will prove a bit optimistic, but even accounting for that, we are on the threshold of a new era.” Despite setbacks, #SpaceX continues pushing boundaries with its rapid iteration approach. The question remains not whether humans will reach #Mars, but when. https://www.forbes.com/sites/luisromero/2025/03/07/spacex-explosion-blasts-mars-timeline-2026-goal-likely-delayed
According to the baseline scenario, a total of four cargo 📦 #Starships and two crewed 👩🚀👨🚀 Starships with a payload capacity of 100 MT each are available until 📆 2029 to bring the required systems to Mars. A power🔋supply system (#PSS) is needed for all activities on Mars. It could be investigated if a refueling ⛽ in #Mars orbit 🌌 scenario would enable return flights. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54012-0.pdf
#Starship would take between a mere 80 and 150 days to reach #Mars 🔴, depending on the launch window.
A shorter transfer time comes at the cost of higher fuel ⛽ requirements and less payload mass. Not only is it more difficult to reach the required delta-V, it’s also more difficult to stop. The spacecraft will need to brake harder to match velocities with Mars upon arrival https://www.marssociety.ca/2021/01/22/rocket-physics-how-to-go-to-mars
The time of travel to #Mars can be reduced from nine months ⏳ to about four months. This would reduce #radiation ☢️ doses by over 60% compared to the Hohmann transfer. This trajectory uses 4.62 km/s of deltaV. #SpaceX #Starship is designed for about 6 km/s of deltaV. The return velocity of #Apollo was about 11 km/s https://marspedia.org/Aerobraking
By Giusy Falcone Dec 2021 https://gfalcon2.web.illinois.edu
With a 6 m/s increase in the Delta-V budget, the deep reinforcement learning approach shortened the #aerobraking time by 68.3% 📉. The DRL algorithm does not encounter any thermal violations over 40 episodes compared to the 2.8 average thermal violations experienced by the state-of-the-art heuristic https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/10.2514/6.2022-2497
As the #spacecraft approaches Mars 🔴, it will need to perform a capture burn 🔥 to slow down and be captured by Mars' gravity. This requires a delta-v of about 0.7 to 1.3 km/s to enter Mars' orbit or to land on the planet's surface. #Starship 🚀 will enter #Mars’ atmosphere at 7.7 km/sec and decelerate #aerodynamically https://www.uc.edu/content/dam/refresh/cont-ed-62/olli/fall-23-class-handouts/SpaceX%208%20%20Mars%20%20Vision%20Summary.pdf
Parachute 🪂 is not the only means for descent, as high-mass class vehicles are emerging for human 👩🚀 missions. Shallow entry flight-path angles are preferred in order to achieve a lower terminal velocity to ensure a safe descent phase. Retro-propulsion could be activated at Mach 2 and above https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/72944#
Aerocapture, Aerobraking, and Entry for Robotic and Human Mars Missions
This chapter provides an overview of the aeroassist technologies and performances for Mars missions. We review the current state-of-the-art aeroassist technologies for Mars explorations, including aerocapture, aerobraking, and entry. Then we present a parametric analysis considering key design parameters such as interplanetary trajectory and vehicle design parameters (lift-to-drag ratio, ballistic coefficient, peak g-load, peak heat rate, and total heat load) for aerocapture, aerobraking, and entry. A new perspective on a rapid aerobraking concept will be provided. The analysis will include first-order estimates for thermal loading, thermal protection systems material selection, and vehicle design. Results and discussion focus on both robotic missions and human missions as landed assets and orbiters.
Chad 
@spaceflight you're comparing an aerobraking maneuver to a true rendezvous mission, opening the crew up to incredible risk. If it's a NASA crew there's no way they'd ever approve it and there's a snowball's chance in hell I'd ever personally participate in a mission that might skip across the atmosphere of Mars with no chance of return in the time my life is sustained.
Capturing into a Mars orbit is the only safe way to get to the Martian surface.
@chad so you propose to go slower, increasing the #radiation exposure time ? 🤔
@spaceflight Mars doesn't have a heliosphere.
@chad that's not an answer
@spaceflight in fact it is.
Michael Gemar@spaceflight Elon has a long history of *extremely* optimistic timelines.
https://www.inverse.com/article/36948-elon-musk-bfr-rocket-new-project-mars
random thoughts@spaceflight Starship can't even have a successful launch, leave alone a trip to Mars, and land there.
@hittitezombie that's 3 years ago on Earth https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CZTLogln34
Starship | SN15 | Flight Test Recap
@spaceflight It's not the same ship, and they still cannot survive a re-entry into Earth atmosphere.
@spaceflight The redesigns it has had since then was all around the stupid 'belly flop' idea, and then when that was ditched, they still haven't figured not to have the stupid 'wings' it's got not burned to a crisp. Note that they are getting smaller and smaller as a result.
Their final issue is exploding engine bays, twice in a row so far and likely to be an issue for a long time.
@hittitezombie so you think the situation is similar to 7 years ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvim4rsNHkQ and will develop like this ? 🤔 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#Booster_landings
How Not to Land an Orbital Rocket Booster
@spaceflight 7 years is a lot more time compared to just 2026.
@spaceflight Elon Musk *says* SpaceX will launch to Mars in two years. His timelines are notoriously “optimistic”.
@michaelgemar depends how they may increase the production rate. What else could hold him back ?
@spaceflight Launch capacity/infrastructure requirements for in-orbit refueling. Regulatory approval for such a vast increase in launch cadence (which is unlikely to take place primarily in Texas, and for which they don’t even have completed launch facilities in Florida).And addressing planetary protection (including determining who decides what protections are necessary for a private mission).
@michaelgemar SpaceX has asked the FAA for permission for up to 25 flights a year from South Texas...the FAA is saying that its extensive 2022 analysis ... was sufficient to account for SpaceX's proposed modifications https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/although-its-not-final-spacex-just-got-good-news-from-the-faa-on-starbase --> 10-12 should be enough to refuel ?
@spaceflight That's enough for just two beyond LEO launches, and one of those will need to be the Artemis lander. There is also the challenge of getting all that propellant to the launch site -- trucking it all in takes a lot of time, and currently the tank farm really only covers one launch worth of prop. It will take a massive increase in their capacity to get prop on site.
I am very keen to see Starship succeed, but there are a lot of further things they have to solve.
@michaelgemar I don't think the number of (available) trucks will be an issue. Probably the number which may refill the tanks at a time https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQAd08w-us8. Delivery could most likely be from Brownsville https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Brownsville. That's 40 minutes away https://graphhopper.com/maps/?point=25.964507%2C-97.37592_Port+of+Brownsville%2C+Texas%2C+United+States&point=25.997148%2C-97.154603_SpaceX+Orbital+Launch+Pad+Tank+Farm%2C+Texas%2C+United+States&profile=truck&layer=Omniscale
9 trucks unloading Orbital Tank Farm, Starbase SpaceX Launch Site Texas July 21, 2022
@spaceflight A full 10-flight LEO refueling would take around 35,000 *tons* of prop. That’s a massive amount to transport.
Again, I really hope SpaceX works all this out, as I would love to see Starship succeed. But there are still massive logistics and infrastructure issues that need to be resolved.
@michaelgemar o.k., let's assume this is equivalent to ~1800 truck loads. Given 20 trucks do this 24/7 and every tour is about 2,5 hours it could be done within ~ 10 days ? (I assume they could also afford some more trucks, but maybe can't unload them at the same time). Any other calculation would be appreciated.
@spaceflight That may be in the ballpark. However, that presumes that the tank farm at Starbase is expanded enough to hold 10 launches worth of prop.
I found this on reddit which may be helpful: