Spaceflight 🚀The first #Starhopper flight was in 📆 2019. First #Starship landing (without #RUD 💥) 📆 2021. First #atmospheric entry 📆 2024. When do you expect the first (uncrewed) Starship #Mars 🔴 landing attempt ? 🤔
2025
2027
2029
> 2030
Poll ended at .
#SpaceX will launch its first #Starships 🚀 to #Mars 🔴 in two years. "These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars" https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/musk-says-spacex-launch-first-uncrewed-starships-mars-two-years-2024-09-07/
Michael Gemar@spaceflight Elon Musk *says* SpaceX will launch to Mars in two years. His timelines are notoriously “optimistic”.
@michaelgemar depends how they may increase the production rate. What else could hold him back ?
@spaceflight Launch capacity/infrastructure requirements for in-orbit refueling. Regulatory approval for such a vast increase in launch cadence (which is unlikely to take place primarily in Texas, and for which they don’t even have completed launch facilities in Florida).And addressing planetary protection (including determining who decides what protections are necessary for a private mission).
@michaelgemar SpaceX has asked the FAA for permission for up to 25 flights a year from South Texas...the FAA is saying that its extensive 2022 analysis ... was sufficient to account for SpaceX's proposed modifications https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/although-its-not-final-spacex-just-got-good-news-from-the-faa-on-starbase --> 10-12 should be enough to refuel ?
@spaceflight That's enough for just two beyond LEO launches, and one of those will need to be the Artemis lander. There is also the challenge of getting all that propellant to the launch site -- trucking it all in takes a lot of time, and currently the tank farm really only covers one launch worth of prop. It will take a massive increase in their capacity to get prop on site.
I am very keen to see Starship succeed, but there are a lot of further things they have to solve.
@michaelgemar I don't think the number of (available) trucks will be an issue. Probably the number which may refill the tanks at a time https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQAd08w-us8. Delivery could most likely be from Brownsville https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Brownsville. That's 40 minutes away https://graphhopper.com/maps/?point=25.964507%2C-97.37592_Port+of+Brownsville%2C+Texas%2C+United+States&point=25.997148%2C-97.154603_SpaceX+Orbital+Launch+Pad+Tank+Farm%2C+Texas%2C+United+States&profile=truck&layer=Omniscale
9 trucks unloading Orbital Tank Farm, Starbase SpaceX Launch Site Texas July 21, 2022
@spaceflight A full 10-flight LEO refueling would take around 35,000 *tons* of prop. That’s a massive amount to transport.
Again, I really hope SpaceX works all this out, as I would love to see Starship succeed. But there are still massive logistics and infrastructure issues that need to be resolved.
@michaelgemar o.k., let's assume this is equivalent to ~1800 truck loads. Given 20 trucks do this 24/7 and every tour is about 2,5 hours it could be done within ~ 10 days ? (I assume they could also afford some more trucks, but maybe can't unload them at the same time). Any other calculation would be appreciated.
@spaceflight That may be in the ballpark. However, that presumes that the tank farm at Starbase is expanded enough to hold 10 launches worth of prop.
I found this on reddit which may be helpful: