The first #Starhopper flight was in ๐Ÿ“† 2019. First #Starship landing (without #RUD ๐Ÿ’ฅ) ๐Ÿ“† 2021. First #atmospheric entry ๐Ÿ“† 2024. When do you expect the first (uncrewed) Starship #Mars ๐Ÿ”ด landing attempt ? ๐Ÿค”
2025
1%
2027
25.3%
2029
24.2%
> 2030
49.5%
Poll ended at .

"this will enable us to increase ๐Ÿ“ˆour production rate significantly as we build toward our long-term goal of producing one Ship per day" https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-one-a-day-starfactory

#SpaceX #Starship

SpaceX wants to build 1 Starship megarocket a day with new Starfactory

"This will enable us to increase our production rate significantly as we build toward our long-term goal of producing one Ship per day."

Space
Some time next year, #NASA believes SpaceX will be ready to link two #Starships ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€ in orbit for an ambitious refueling โ›ฝ demonstration. #SpaceX is planning to build an additional launch tower at #Starbase in #Texas, and at least two Starship pads on #Florida's Space Coast https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/nasa-exploration-chief-lays-out-next-steps-for-starship-development/2/
NASA lays out how SpaceX will refuel Starships in low-Earth orbit

"The fundamental flow mechanism is the pressure delta across the umbilical."

Ars Technica
#NASAโ€™s associate administrator for exploration systems development said that if not all the technological pieces were ready for a #moon ๐ŸŒ™ landing, โ€œwe may end up flying a different ๐Ÿ”ด mission.โ€ https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship-mars.html
Elon Musk Says SpaceX Could Land on Mars in 3 to 4 Years

The prediction is the latest in a series of ambitious timelines for reaching the red planet that the entrepreneur has previously failed to meet.

The New York Times

#SpaceX aims to speed up ๐Ÿ“ˆ its development timeline even further. โ€œWe have Ships and #SuperHeavy boosters built and either ready to launch or in testing for the next several flights with more coming off of the production line as SpaceXโ€™s #Starfactory ๐Ÿญ continues to grow. The latest phase โฑ๏ธ of the factory currently under construction will come online this summer, giving us several 100,000 more square feet of space.โ€ Starship should launch nine times this year. https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/spacex-plans-to-produce-rocket-every-day

#Starship

SpaceX plans to produce worldโ€™s most powerful rocket every day

SpaceX is enhancing Starfactory, its manufacturing site in Texas, with the goal of achieving daily production of one Starship rocket.

Interesting Engineering
Can Starship ACTUALLY land on Mars? (Aerobraking)

YouTube
The time of travel to #Mars ๐Ÿ”ด can be reduced to about four months (128 days). This would reduce #radiation โ˜ข๏ธ doses by over 60% ๐Ÿ“‰ compared to the #Hohmann transfer. This trajectory uses 4.62 km/s of deltaV. #SpaceX #Starship is designed for about 6 km/s of deltaV https://marspedia.org/Aerobraking
Aerobraking

Marspedia

#SyntrichiaCaninervis is able to withstand drought conditions, but tests by researchers at the #Chinese ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Academy of Sciences revealed that it can also tolerate temperatures as low as -196ยฐC โ„๏ธ and similar levels of gamma radiation โ˜ข๏ธ to that found on the #Martian surface. "A promising candidate pioneer plant ๐ŸŒฑ for colonising #extraterrestrial environments" https://www.independent.co.uk/space/mars-moss-survive-human-colony-b2571878.html

#Terraforming #Mars

Scientists discover moss can grow on Mars

Desert plant offers big boost for making Red Planet habitable

The Independent

Redirecting water-rich comets and #asteroids โ˜„๏ธ to crash into #Mars ๐Ÿ”ด would release gases from below the planetโ€™s surface into the atmosphere while also releasing the water ๐Ÿ’ฆ found in the #comets https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/is-it-possible-to-make-mars-like-earth/

#Terraforming

Is it possible to make Mars like Earth?

To live on Mars, humans will need liquid water, food, shelter and a thick, protective atmosphere with enough oxygen to breathe.

Astronomy Magazine
@spaceflight I bet we find moss everywhere in Space, planets of moss way more common than planets such as Earth.
@Lazarou "Recent research shows that ancient moss could explain why the Ordovician ice ages occurred" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moss#Geological_history
Moss - Wikipedia

Less than a month โฑ๏ธ since the fifth flight of #SpaceX's #Starship. The upper stage will incorporate an in-flight relight ๐Ÿ”ฅ of one of the rocket's six engines. A late-afternoon launch window will allow the vehicle to reenter during daylight into the Indian Ocean. https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/11/the-next-starship-launch-may-occur-in-less-than-two-weeks/
The next Starship launch may occur in less than two weeks

Starship will launch during the late afternoon so its descent into Indian Ocean is visible.

Ars Technica
@spaceflight I hope the refueling tests are in a very low orbit so any debris created doesn't stay in orbit long.
@SETIEric docking port parts, or do you expect an explosion as of a fuel line leak ?
@spaceflight Early Space-X tests tend to be explosive.

#SpaceX will try to perform a catch ๐Ÿฆพ of Booster 12 during Flight 5 https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/06/starship-flight-4-milestones-flight-5/

#Starship

Starship Flight 4 milestones effect changes to Flight 5's Ship - NASASpaceFlight.com

Following the highly successful milestones achieved by Booster 11 and Ship 29 on Flight 4โ€ฆ

NASASpaceFlight.com
#SpaceX will launch its first #Starships ๐Ÿš€ to #Mars ๐Ÿ”ด in two years. "These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars" https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/musk-says-spacex-launch-first-uncrewed-starships-mars-two-years-2024-09-07/
Colonization of Mars - Wikipedia

"Weโ€™ll never live in #space" ๐ŸŒŒ (Scientific American Magazine October 2023) ๐Ÿค” https://listverse.com/2019/05/14/10-quotes-from-experts-who-were-proved-wrong
10 Quotes From Experts Who Were Proved Wrong - Listverse

The 20th century was a time of great technological advancement, replete with discoveries and inventions that changed the world. We moved from horse and

Listverse

If the uncrewed test missions succeed, #crewed ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿš€ ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿš€ missions are expected in ๐Ÿ“† 2028 https://www.cnet.com/science/space/spacex-plans-5-missions-to-mars-by-2026-elon-musk-says/

#SpaceX #Starship #Mars

SpaceX Plans 5 Missions to Mars by 2026, Elon Musk Says

If the uncrewed test missions succeed, crewed missions are expected in 2028.

CNET
#Starship will re-enter in the Indian Ocean about 65 minutes after it lifts off from #Starbase. #SpaceX will be attempting to catch ๐Ÿฆพ the #SuperHeavy booster with the launch tower https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIKI7y3DTXk
[4K] Watch SpaceX Catch A Starship Rocket From Space!!! #IFT5

YouTube
Fifth #Starship flight test ๐Ÿ“† Sun Oct 13, 2024 ๐Ÿ•‘ 14:00 CEST https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YC87WmFN_As
๐Ÿ”ด LIVE: SpaceX Launches Starship for the Fifth Time (and Tries to Catch a Booster)

YouTube

Some useful payload for greenhouses ๐ŸŒฑ on #Mars ๐Ÿ”ด ? ๐Ÿค” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVcQp-WQbF0

#SpaceFarming #SpaceFood #SpaceColonization #SpaceRobot

How AI Farming Robots Can Fix Agriculture

YouTube

"If we can avoid disaster for the next two centuries, our species should be safe, as we spread into #space ๐ŸŒŒ ." #StephenHawking https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/aug/09/stephen-hawking-human-race-colonise-space

"The clear necessity of expanding humanity's horizons would cause ... space ๐ŸŒŒ settlements to be built." #IsaacAsimov https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Isaac_Asimov

#SpaceExploration #SpaceColonization

Stephen Hawking: mankind must colonise space or die out

Renowned scientist says human race is in great danger

The Guardian
Elon Muskโ€™s Mars Dream Gets One Step Closer After SpaceX Catches Booster

YouTube

"#Mars ๐Ÿ”ด serves as a simplified laboratory for testing #climate models and scenarios, without oceans and biology, that we can then use to better understand ๐Ÿค”๐Ÿ’ญ Earth systems." #Mars can tilt more than Earth, causing the Red Planet's poles to receive more direct sunlight than its midlatitudes, making for longer summer days with higher temperatures https://www.space.com/33001-mars-ice-age-ending-now.html

#ClimateChange

Red Planet Heats Up: Ice Age Ending on Mars

Mars is emerging from an ice age, a finding that could shed light on the past and future climates of both Mars and Earth, researchers say.

Space
Injecting tiny particles into #Marsโ€™s atmosphere could warm ๐ŸŒก๏ธ the planet by more than 10ยฐC in a matter of months, researchers find - enough to sustain liquid water ๐Ÿ’ง. The 2 million tons of particles represent roughly 0.1% of the industrial metals mined โš’๏ธ on Earth each year. #Terraforming research shows how important it is to study Earth. โ€œCan we understand ๐Ÿค”๐Ÿ’ญ #climate and ecosystems well enough to build them elsewhere ?โ€ https://www.science.org/content/article/terraforming-mars-could-be-easier-scientists-thought

The seasonal rise and fall of #methane on #Mars ๐Ÿ”ด is a sign that there is much more to learn about our neighboring planet and that it's holding many secrets beneath its surface https://www.space.com/what-is-behind-martian-methane-mystery

#PlanetaryScience

What's behind the Martian methane mystery?

The brief spikes of methane observed on Mars tend to follow the seasons, with late spring and early summer seeming to have the highest levels of atmospheric methane.

Space
โ€œThe barrier to warming #Mars ๐Ÿ”ด to allow liquid water ๐Ÿ’ง is not as high as previously thoughtโ€ : Changing the shape of the planetโ€™s #dust https://news.weinberg.northwestern.edu/2024/08/26/how-we-could-warm-mars/
How we could warm Mars โ€“ Weinberg College News

#ESA #Hubble #SpaceTelescope ๐Ÿ”ญ images of #Mars taken December 2024. Thin #water-ice โ„๏ธ clouds are apparent in ultraviolet light https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2025/04/Mars_December_2024
Mars (December 2024)

Mars (December 2024)

Researchers found that the mid-crust, about 10-20 kilometers down, may be riddled with cracks and pores filled with water ๐Ÿ’ง. A rough estimate predicts these cracks could hold enough #water to cover all of #Mars ๐Ÿ”ด with an ocean ๐ŸŒŠ 1-2 kilometers deep https://www.planetary.org/articles/mars-may-host-oceans-worth-of-water-deep-underground
Mars may host oceansโ€™ worth of water deep underground

The tentative discovery hints at an habitat where life could potentially thrive.

The Planetary Society

Only hydrated #minerals as a water source cover the needs to produce propellants and life support #water๐Ÿ’ง. Extraction from #regolith requires autonomous excavation, transport, processing of regolith and water treatment that present significant challenges. #Atmospheric water harvesting suffers from the extremely low residence time of air in the system. Compression is power-intensive ๐Ÿชซ but can be competitive if the waste heat from the fission reactors is accessible https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117725012864?via%3Dihub#s0185

#Mars

Initially expected to launch in 2022, the #ExoMars mission is currently scheduled for launch in ๐Ÿ“† 2028. One of the most important elements of the mission is the system designed to slow the descent module from 21,000โ€ฏkm/h to a soft landing ๐Ÿช‚ on the surface of #Mars. https://europeanspaceflight.com/esa-recertifies-exomars-parachutes-after-years-in-storage

#ESA

ESA Recertifies ExoMars Parachutes After Years in Storage - European Spaceflight

ESA has retested a pair of parachutes that, along with a retro rocket, will ensure the safe landing of its Rosalind Franklin rover on Mars.

European Spaceflight

Why human ๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿš€ missions to #Mars ๐Ÿ”ด (8:30) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzhSmnGcSkE

Dr. Levine spent 41 years at #NASA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joel_S._Levine

#HumanSpaceflight #SpaceTravel

The Exploration and Colonization of Mars: Why Mars? Why Humans? | Dr. Joel Levine | TEDxRVA

YouTube
#Starship's total on orbit mass adds to 1510.5 MT, of which 1200 MT are propellant โ›ฝ and 100 MT payload and the 12 person crew ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿš€ and their consumables ๐Ÿ for a time of flight of 180 d. According to #SpaceX, their target times of flight between Earth and #Mars are 140 d in 2029, 90 d in 2033 and 80 d in 2035 โฑ๏ธ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54012-0
About feasibility of SpaceX's human exploration Mars mission scenario with Starship - Scientific Reports

After decades where human spaceflight missions have been reserved to low Earth orbit, recent years have seen mission proposals and even implemented plans, e.g. with the mission Artemis I, for returning to the lunar surface. SpaceX has published over various media (e.g., its official website, conference presentations, user manual) conceptual information for its reusable Starship to enable human exploration missions to the Martian surface by the end of the decade. The technological and human challenges associated with these plans are daunting. Such a mission at that distance would require excellent system reliability and in-situ-resource utilization on a grand scale, e.g. to produce propellant. The plans contain little details however and have not yet been reviewed concerning their feasibility. In this paper we show significant technological gaps in these plans. Based on estimates and extrapolated data, a mass model as needed to fulfill SpaceXโ€™s plans could not be reproduced and the subsequent trajectory optimization showed that the current plans do not yield a return flight opportunity, due to a too large system mass. Furthermore, significant gaps exist in relevant technologies, e.g. power supply for the Martian surface. It is unlikely that these gaps can be closed until the end of the decade. We recommend several remedies, e.g. stronger international participation to distribute technology development and thus improve feasibility. Overall, with the limited information published by SpaceX about its system and mission scenario and extrapolation from us to fill information gaps, we were not able to find a feasible Mars mission scenario using Starship, even when assuming optimal conditions such as 100% recovery rate of crew consumables during flight.

Nature

Both companiesโ€™ plans rely on the availability of an orbital propellant โ›ฝ depot, which would fuel up their vehicles on the way to the #moon ๐ŸŒ™. The biggest test will be the orbital propellant transfer demonstration https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/spacex-blue-origin-share-new-lunar-landing-profiles/

A single #NewGlenn rocket will be able to send the #BlueMoon lander to the Lunar #Gateway. But the lander wonโ€™t have enough #propellant to make a powered descent to the lunar surface https://hackaday.com/2023/12/07/artemis-next-giant-leap-orbital-refueling/

#SpaceX #Starship #BlueOrigin #Mk1 #NASA #Artemis

SpaceX, Blue Origin share new lunar landing profiles

NASA lunar landing faces challenges as SpaceX and Blue Origin compete for the Artemis 3 mission lead.

Astronomy Magazine
#BlueOrigin will use their Lunar #Transporter for in-space ๐ŸŒŒ cryogenic propellant โ›ฝ transfer. The Utility Transfer Mechanism was recently tested inside the TS300 thermal vacuum chamber at #NASAโ€™s Marshall Space Flight Center. The Lunar Transporter will use similar propellant tanks to those flown on the companyโ€™s #NewGlenn rocket, and seven #BE7 engines as its main propulsion system https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/10/28/blue-origin-details-lunar-exploration-progress-amid-artemis-3-contract-shakeup/
Blue Origin details lunar exploration progress amid Artemis 3 contract shakeup โ€“ Spaceflight Now

@spaceflight That's ambitious; cryogenic refueling and long-term storage in flight still has to be demonstrated. This is virtually uncharted territory.
@60sRefugee @spaceflight It will be fascinating to see how large-scale cryogenic fuel transfers work. SpaceX will have to get really good at that for anything else to work.
@spaceflight Elon Musk *says* SpaceX will launch to Mars in two years. His timelines are notoriously โ€œoptimisticโ€.
@michaelgemar depends how they may increase the production rate. What else could hold him back ?
@spaceflight Launch capacity/infrastructure requirements for in-orbit refueling. Regulatory approval for such a vast increase in launch cadence (which is unlikely to take place primarily in Texas, and for which they donโ€™t even have completed launch facilities in Florida).And addressing planetary protection (including determining who decides what protections are necessary for a private mission).
@michaelgemar SpaceX has asked the FAA for permission for up to 25 flights a year from South Texas...the FAA is saying that its extensive 2022 analysis ... was sufficient to account for SpaceX's proposed modifications https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/although-its-not-final-spacex-just-got-good-news-from-the-faa-on-starbase --> 10-12 should be enough to refuel ?
Although itโ€™s not final, SpaceX just got good news from the FAA on Starbase

"SpaceX has dramatically reduced the duration of operations."

Ars Technica

@spaceflight That's enough for just two beyond LEO launches, and one of those will need to be the Artemis lander. There is also the challenge of getting all that propellant to the launch site -- trucking it all in takes a lot of time, and currently the tank farm really only covers one launch worth of prop. It will take a massive increase in their capacity to get prop on site.

I am very keen to see Starship succeed, but there are a lot of further things they have to solve.

9 trucks unloading Orbital Tank Farm, Starbase SpaceX Launch Site Texas July 21, 2022

YouTube

@spaceflight A full 10-flight LEO refueling would take around 35,000 *tons* of prop. Thatโ€™s a massive amount to transport.

Again, I really hope SpaceX works all this out, as I would love to see Starship succeed. But there are still massive logistics and infrastructure issues that need to be resolved.

@michaelgemar o.k., let's assume this is equivalent to ~1800 truck loads. Given 20 trucks do this 24/7 and every tour is about 2,5 hours it could be done within ~ 10 days ? (I assume they could also afford some more trucks, but maybe can't unload them at the same time). Any other calculation would be appreciated.

@spaceflight That may be in the ballpark. However, that presumes that the tank farm at Starbase is expanded enough to hold 10 launches worth of prop.

I found this on reddit which may be helpful:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/ruhmcp/how_many_tankers_does_it_take_to_fill_up_starship/

@spaceflight launch in '27 with a 18 month trip is around '29
@falken given they have the tanker ready until 2025, why shouldn't they launch to Mars ? ๐Ÿค”
@spaceflight 18 months from first landing on Earth to interplanetary cruise seems... Ambitious. Even for Space X
SpaceXโ€™s Tesla roadster made its first close approach with Mars

SpaceX CEO Elon Muskโ€™s Tesla roadster made its first close approach to Mars on Wednesday. along with the dummy mannequin dubbed โ€œStarman.โ€ SpaceX tweeted yesterday that the vehicle came within 5 million miles of the planet.

CNN
@spaceflight i think the refueling missions for the moon will take such a priority that it would be hard to fit that in.
@rodbotic "The revised plan envisions up to 44 Starship launches from LC-39A per year", and they'll soon have 3 launch towers, so where do you see the bottleneck ? https://www.space.com/faa-environmental-impact-statement-spacex-starship-ksc (Falcon 9 currently launches ~2,6 times per week)
FAA to conduct new environmental review for SpaceX's Starship operations in Florida

The agency will prepare an environmental impact statement, a more in-depth review than the environmental assessment performed in 2019.

Space

@spaceflight not only do we need a refill Depot in earth orbit. But we need a lunar refill Depot too. And refilling the lunar Depot is going to take a lot of earth launches.

If a full start ship in orbit is going to take 10 launches just to fill one ship, how many launches will a lunar depot require?

How many earth based launches are needed for lunar landing and return.

I think NASA will keep them pretty busy.

That and i have heard zero equipment being built for a Mars mission.

@spaceflight
2025? Even 2027 is hilarious. Mars isnt just arround the corner.
How Long Does It Take to Get to Mars?

We explore how long it takes to get to Mars and the factors that affect a journey to the Red Planet.

Space.com
@spaceflight Based on the time a flight to Mars takes, its seems optimistic in the extreme to think they can attemp to land on Mars in 2025.
How Long Does It Take to Get to Mars?

We explore how long it takes to get to Mars and the factors that affect a journey to the Red Planet.

Space.com
@spaceflight Note that it says attempt with an uncrewed Starship, not success with a crewed vehicle. I suspect many respondents were replying to a different question. I think it very unlikely Mr Musk will wait until >2030 to try.
The Horse Is Here to Stay

Stevens Pt, Wis, PO repts successful use of horse-drawn vehicles during Xmas rush

The New York Times