Spaceflight 🚀The first #Starhopper flight was in 📆 2019. First #Starship landing (without #RUD 💥) 📆 2021. First #atmospheric entry 📆 2024. When do you expect the first (uncrewed) Starship #Mars 🔴 landing attempt ? 🤔
2025
2027
2029
> 2030
Poll ended at .
#SpaceX will launch its first #Starships 🚀 to #Mars 🔴 in two years. "These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars" https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/musk-says-spacex-launch-first-uncrewed-starships-mars-two-years-2024-09-07/
"Two years down the road it seems feasible.It would be enough for #SpaceX to have a fleet of three launchers, one per pad. The bottleneck may lie in the supply of the thousands of liters of #methane and oxygen needed to maintain a sustained hourly launch rate. Some have proposed building a jetty and a small gas #pipeline so that the fuel can arrive in large methane tankers." https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2024-11-04/elon-musks-plans-to-go-to-mars-within-two-years.html
The proof of concept shows that at the current achievable flow rates of #CO2 and water, it is possible to meet #NASA’s 16-month deadline for refueling #rockets on #Mars 🔴. It can be scaled further to meet tighter rocket refueling ⛽ deadlines. The use of Martian nighttime temperatures for heat 🌡️ exchange can potentially reduce the dependence on power-hungry cryogenic methods for gas liquefaction. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9118664
Thermodynamic modeling of in-situ rocket propellant fabrication on Mars
In-situ resource utilization (ISRU) to refuel rockets on Mars will become critical in the future. The current effort presents a thorough feasibility analysis of a scalable, Matlab-based, integrated ISRU framework from the standpoint of the second ...
For Starship to go to #Mars 🔴, you’ve got to get #Starship tankers ⛽ on orbit and perfect orbital refueling. #SpaceX will have to perfect the #robots 🤖 that will help build spacecraft #LandingPads and human #habitats on the Martian surface, prospect for water 💧 underground, and convert the water and carbon dioxide captured from the atmosphere into vast reservoirs of super-cooled oxygen and methane for the Starships’ return voyage to Earth. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinholdenplatt/2025/03/11/spacexs-starship-plan-to-land-first-humans-on-mars-but-not-till-2031
#Reuters - #Starship is set to depart for #Mars at the end of next year, carrying humanoid bot #Optimus. https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/starship-carrying-teslas-bot-set-mars-by-end-2026-elon-musk-2025-03-15
Each #technological breakthrough brings us closer to realizing the goal of living on #Mars 🔴. Mars colonization 👩🚀👨🚀 is within our potential reach. This paper has outlined a feasible timeline⌛
📆 2020s: Continued #robotic exploration
📆 2030s: Test missions for human life-support systems and #ISRU ⚒️ on the Martian surface
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10884476
#HumanSpaceflight #SpaceTravel #SpaceExploration #SpaceColonization
Towards sustainable horizons: A comprehensive blueprint for Mars colonization
This paper thoroughly explores the feasibility, challenges, and proposed solutions for establishing a sustainable human colony on Mars. We quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the Martian environment, highlighting key challenges such as ...
"#Musk's timeline will prove a bit optimistic, but even accounting for that, we are on the threshold of a new era.” Despite setbacks, #SpaceX continues pushing boundaries with its rapid iteration approach. The question remains not whether humans will reach #Mars, but when. https://www.forbes.com/sites/luisromero/2025/03/07/spacex-explosion-blasts-mars-timeline-2026-goal-likely-delayed
According to the baseline scenario, a total of four cargo 📦 #Starships and two crewed 👩🚀👨🚀 Starships with a payload capacity of 100 MT each are available until 📆 2029 to bring the required systems to Mars. A power🔋supply system (#PSS) is needed for all activities on Mars. It could be investigated if a refueling ⛽ in #Mars orbit 🌌 scenario would enable return flights. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54012-0.pdf
#Starship would take between a mere 80 and 150 days to reach #Mars 🔴, depending on the launch window.
A shorter transfer time comes at the cost of higher fuel ⛽ requirements and less payload mass. Not only is it more difficult to reach the required delta-V, it’s also more difficult to stop. The spacecraft will need to brake harder to match velocities with Mars upon arrival https://www.marssociety.ca/2021/01/22/rocket-physics-how-to-go-to-mars
The time of travel to #Mars can be reduced from nine months ⏳ to about four months. This would reduce #radiation ☢️ doses by over 60% compared to the Hohmann transfer. This trajectory uses 4.62 km/s of deltaV. #SpaceX #Starship is designed for about 6 km/s of deltaV. The return velocity of #Apollo was about 11 km/s https://marspedia.org/Aerobraking
Chad 
@spaceflight you're comparing an aerobraking maneuver to a true rendezvous mission, opening the crew up to incredible risk. If it's a NASA crew there's no way they'd ever approve it and there's a snowball's chance in hell I'd ever personally participate in a mission that might skip across the atmosphere of Mars with no chance of return in the time my life is sustained.
Capturing into a Mars orbit is the only safe way to get to the Martian surface.
@chad so you propose to go slower, increasing the #radiation exposure time ? 🤔
@spaceflight Mars doesn't have a heliosphere.
@chad that's not an answer
@spaceflight in fact it is.