Allen Tien, MD, MHS mdlogix.com 94,698 田一彦#BaseRateFallacy
#Vaccines
#Epidemiology
#PublicHealthScience
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:mtfctq4q7pnrabqbzmjomz5z/post/3lmezylgomk2y
dasgrueneblattEin neuer Zangerle ist in der Seuchenkolumne erschienen:
Gute Nachrichten von Covid. Schlechte Nachrichten von der politischen Vernunft
https://www.falter.at/seuchenkolumne/20240119/gute-nachrichten-von-covid-schlechte-nachrichten-von-der-politischen-vernunft
#Seuchenkolumne #zangerle #covid #covid19 #covid19at #österreich #ili #influenzaLikeIllness #influenza #rsv #Abwassermonitoring #bettenbelegung #krankenhausaufnahme #impfung #Auffrischungsimpfung #pravalenzfehler #BaseRateFallacy #jn1
Nick Byrd, Ph.D."When Cognitive Reflection Leads to Less Overall but More Systematic Judgment Bias":
🤨 Participants who performed better on trick math and logic questions (a.k.a., reflection tests) were MORE (not less) likely to commit a statistical error: a "tendency to underestimate base rates".
🤔 However, the performing well on the trick questions also predicted a LOWER absolute (value of) error.
https://doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence11060100
#decisionScience #cogSci #psychology #probability #CriticalThinking #BaseRateFallacy
When Cognitive Reflection Leads to Less Overall but More Systematic Judgment Bias: The Case of the Base Rates Fallacy
Although widely used in the judgment under uncertainty literature, the so-called Lawyer–Engineer problem does not have a Bayesian solution because the base rates typically oppose qualitative stereotypical information, which has an undefined diagnostic value. We propose an experimental paradigm that elicits participants’ subjective estimates of the diagnosticity of stereotypical information and allows us to investigate the degree to which participants are able to integrate both sources of information (base rates and stereotypical descriptions) according to the Bayesian rule. This paradigm was used to test the hypothesis that the responses (probability estimates) to the Lawyer–Engineer problem from more rational individuals deviate from normative Bayesian solutions in a way that shows smaller but more systematic bias. The results further suggest that the estimates of less rational participants are noisier (less reliable) but may be more accurate when aggregated across several problems.
Remko Tronçon@jbaert Ik hoop dat ze dat niet doen: 26% True Positive, 9% False Positive ... Als 10% van de klas ChatGPT gebruikt, dan gaat 75% van de ‘dit is een AI’ voorspellingen een valse beschuldiging zijn. #BaseRateFallacy
Jonathan D. AbolinsA good thread explaining Base Rate Fallacy & #Covid #Perceptions #Statistics #Logic #Analysis #BaseRateFallacy #Fallacies https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1615018133814657033.html
Jordan KayIf you (correctly) knew to debunk the message behind “most people dying of COVID were vaccinated” but not that behind “most people with Long COVID had a mild initial case,” maybe ask yourself why. #BaseRateFallacy
Another #framingEffect?
In "The Allure of #Simplicity", Jack Justus, Samantha Wakil and I run three #experiments on people's evaluations of explanations.
Merely labeling explanations 'simpler' or 'simplest' made people more vulnerable to the #baseRateFallacy and the #conjunctionFallacy!
Jack and I present our data and conclusions at #PSA2022 on Saturday.
#xPhi #PhilSci #CogSci #DecisionScience #Rationality #Epistemology #Psychology #Science #SciComm #Virtue
रञ्जित (Ranjit Mathew)No...?
"Can 'Smart Thinking' Books Really Give You The Edge?", The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/aug/21/can-smart-thinking-books-really-give-you-the-edge).
#Thinking #Smart #SmartThinking #Books #SelfHelp #Rationality #Reason #BayesianThinking #Priors #BaseRateFallacy