Mastodawn

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

Acc to mediazzzona there is an ongoing hostage situation in a prison in Rostov, Russia - the hostage takers say they are #IS #daesh #isis #IslamicState members. Shootouts at checkpoints and targeting of policemen has been the main method the IS #Caucasus branch has kept active since the loss of the #caliphate

In its latest special, #Theglobaljigsaw has looked into IS' evolution and re-emergence - some quotes to follow in a thread

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct6r7g

BBC World Service - The Global Jigsaw, The evolution of the Islamic State Group

After a lull in activities, in 2024 IS claimed to be behind several major attacks

BBC

"the BBC calls it Islamic state group, we always focus on the term group, especially on first mention to indicate that we do not acknowledge IS’s claim of being a state. So to us in the bbc and to many people around the world it is a jihadist group, it is a militant group, an insurgent group"
"our close monitoring of jihadist sources over a long period of time allows us to quickly spot trends, detect any changes in the jihadist messaging, the behaviour, the narratives and the tactics. "

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"On the 10th of June 2014 #IS captured #Mosul in Northern #Iraq and went on to swiftly capture other #Sunni #Iraqi areas. it then linked them up to areas it had already taken control of in #Syria , across the border. On the 29th of June the group declared itself a a #caliphate , rebranding as the #IslamicState and it named its then leader Abu Bakr al #Baghdadi as caliph. In August that year IS marched to #Yazidi areas near Mosul and killed and enslaved thousands of its residents. "

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"Its defeat in #Baghouz where thousands of #IS fighters and families huddled, caused thousands its followers, both civilians and combatants, to end up either dead or imprisoned in jails and detention camps of Al Hol and Al Roj in #Syria . later that month, IS started pivoting to #Africa, where it would soon declare new branches. And finally at that point IS changed from being a group that control territory, to an insurgent group engaged in a global war of attrition to wear down its enemies"

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

A year ago "IS was very much in the doldrums. Lower numbers of attacks, less spectacular attacks, pretty much being ignored by the international media."
"in mid 2024 where they are back on the front foot, greater levels of activity. And on top of that we are seeing a number of attention grabbing attacks. It’s also the propaganda value that it gets from each of these blows."
In 2018 90% of attacks were in #Iraq and #Syria . last year, 60 % IS claims were from countries in sub-Saharan #Africa

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"just within the #Sahel region alone according to one metric, 50% of terrorist deaths globally were in that single part of the world, where we have seen a very notable upswing in jihadist activity - so one of the really striking things you get working in this field is how dynamic and volatile these groups can be from one year to the next, really seizing on opportunities."

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"we've seen pictures in the #Sahel of huge numbers of fighters often on motorcycles parading across large open plains in daylight and it is all adding to this image of IS being able to act with impunity. Out of the reach of the law.
In #Syria #IS attacks have increased from an average of 10 per month last year to an average of 30 attacks p.m. for IS Syria is very significant, not only as the birthplace of the #caliphate along wIraq but also the camps and the prisons that hold IS fighters"

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

" #Africa offers some easy wins for #IS in the sense that there are existing conflicts and #Islamist groups, #jihadist groups that can be coopted and have been coopted"
"we are talking about #Burkina Fasso, #Mali , and #Niger and particularly the transborder region between these three countries. it is a region that has seen tremendous insecurity and instability over the last few years, especially since 2020 when there was a coup in Mali and another coup in Niger last year"

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"weak governance, withdrawal of US troops in #Niger and UN peacekeepers in #Mali and this has enabled #IS to make gains especially in Mali so last year they went on a kind of counteroffensive against their main #jihadist rival #AlQaeda and ended up encircling a major town in the east of Mali and then since the coup last year in Niger they have announce a few quite high profile mass casualty attacks against Niger military"

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"a lot of these messaging we see attempts to project #IS de facto authority. We have seen images of preaching and religious outreach, we have seen sharia law being carried out and so the aim of all of this is to draw some kind of continuity between the heyday of the #caliphate and now, which is a way to play to IS global audience but also to encourage recruits on the ground"

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"for them it is #Russia 's military involvement from years ago in #Afghanistan and #Chechnya . And of course more recently in #Syria and then in #Mali through the #Wagner group and other conflict areas where #jihadists are also active. So, for them It was, yes, of course, da, of course we would target Russia. It's a key enemy. #Moscow was an opportunity. They happened to have operatives there, who are capable, who are willing"

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

" #IS is deeply opportunistic and if IS was to come up with a top twenty list of places or countries it would likely be wanting to hit then probably obscure parts of #Niger or #Mozambique would not be there at the top. It picks these areas because they are undergoverned spaces with chronic conflict. That's why we've always seen #Yemen , #Libya , #Syria being from time to time real hubs for IS or #jihadist activity"

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"apart from West #Africa and the #Sahel #IS has two other major branches - one located in north-eastern #Mozambique and the other in north-eastern #DRC - Democratic Republic of Congo. In the DRC IS originates from the group called the #ADF , The Allied Democratic Forces, they are a group of Muslim #Ugandan rebels, present in the area over three decades. In Mozambique it originates from a group known locally as Al-#Shabab - not related to the #Somali group of the same name"

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"It comes as troops from #Rwanda and several Southern African countries have been withdrawing. 70% of #IS attacks this year have targeted #Christian communities. These village raids have forced tens of thousands to flee. And they have been very brutal, including beheadings in the burnings of churches and homes."
#ISWAP , the acronym for #IS West African Province It's the most prolific branch in terms of attacks. It's started consolidating its presence in the north east of #Nigeria in 2021...

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

while it was kind of fighting against its rival #BokoHaram essentially it got the upper hand, but that rivalry continues. In 2022 it staged attacks across the country. Probably the most high profile of which was a prison break it carried out in #Abuja, the capital.
#IS has called #Africa the land of migration and urged Muslims worldwide to join its branches there ( #hijra ). However, we have not realy seen any evidence of this taking place at the moment"

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"As the centre of #IS has progressively weakened over the years several of these branches are growing stronger and more powerful. They have their weapons. They have incredible amounts of manpower. And that begs the question for how long can the tail wag the dog? But the thing is that the centre gives these groups legitimacy"

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"They are all part of the same goal for example, at the beginning of this year in the context of their campaign on #Gaza we saw #Malian #jihadists firing off rockets with 'this is revenge for the Muslims of Gaza' written on the side of them in order to build themselves into to this supposedly global movement. It's that degree of legitimacy that they're able to gain from portraying themselves as part of this worldwide jihadist movement."

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

" #ISKP is an acronym for #IslamicState #Khorasan province and Khorasan mostly refers to #IS activity in #Afghanistan and North West #Pakistan . The group was set up in 2015 and it mostly poached militants from the #Taliban . After some setbacks it launched a big campaign in August 2021 as the Taliban returned to power. ISKP considers that the Taliban are its key enemy, a rival "

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"The outbreak of the #Gaza conflict from the 7th of October was arguably a moment for us when, after a quiet year, we suddenly saw a very significant upsurge in #jihadist propaganda. From both those affiliated with #IS and #AlQaeda and they see an opportunity here after a period where they've perhaps struggled to recruit around the world."

Kriszta Satori Jun 16, 2024

"Sometimes it experiences setbacks and it's very quiet and then it surges again. So I think we ignore #IS at our own peril - and if we look at the example of its predecessor, the #IslamicState of Iraq with the US’ surge in 2007 - by 2010 It was left for dead. And then 2013 it had staged a number of prison breaks in Iraq that replenished Its ranks then a year later went on to declare a #Caliphate . "

helgenug Jun 16, 2024

Africa is gettin' taken/run over by islamists, russia and china...