Fuel theft fears: Rural Wales on alert as prices rocket and criminals circle

The warning has been issued by FUW Insurance Services Ltd after a dramatic spike in the cost of red diesel and heating oil linked to global instability.

In just a matter of weeks, red diesel prices have surged from around 67p per litre to 109p — a jump of more than 60% — while heating oil has in some cases more than doubled to around £1.30 per litre.

Carmarthenshire communities among hardest hit

The impact is being felt most sharply in rural parts of the Swansea Bay region — particularly across Carmarthenshire, where reliance on heating oil remains high.

Previous Swansea Bay News reporting has revealed just how exposed some communities are. In areas such as Llannon, Cross Hands and Pen-y-groes, around 69% of households rely on oil, while the figure stands at 65% in Abergwili, Llanegwad and Carmel. Even in places like Llanddarog, Llangyndeyrn and Ferryside, more than four in ten homes depend on oil.

That leaves thousands of households vulnerable to sudden price shocks — and increasingly, to criminals.

Fears of a surge in rural crime

Experts say spikes in fuel costs have historically gone hand-in-hand with a rise in theft — and farms are often prime targets.

Fuel tanks, agricultural machinery and storage units can all be vulnerable, with thieves able to strike quickly and cause serious damage in the process. Beyond the immediate financial hit, incidents can also lead to environmental harm if tanks are tampered with or fuel is spilled.

Dafydd Peredur Jones of FUW Insurance Services Ltd said:

“Rising fuel prices are placing additional pressure on rural communities, but they also increase the risk of theft.

We are urging farmers and rural residents to take proactive steps to protect their fuel supplies and remain vigilant.”

Not just farms in the firing line

The warning extends beyond agriculture.

Rural buildings such as churches, chapels, village halls and community centres — many of which rely on heating oil and may be left unattended — are also being urged to tighten security.

Simple steps like monitoring fuel levels, securing tanks and installing CCTV could make all the difference.

Part of a wider fuel crisis

The alert comes as pressure continues to build across the region.

Swansea Bay News has previously reported on growing fears over potential fuel rationing, alongside the real-world impact on businesses — including a Llanelli haulier facing staggering cost increases of up to £64,000 a week.

At the same time, families across rural communities have been hit hard by soaring heating bills, with some seeing costs triple in a matter of months. Rising prices have also been linked to a resurgence in heating oil theft incidents across Wales.

With global instability continuing to drive prices higher, communities across Carmarthenshire and the wider Swansea Bay region are now facing a double threat – sky-high costs and the growing risk of crime.

“Remain vigilant”

With no immediate sign of prices easing, the message from experts is clear: stay alert.

For many across rural south west Wales, fuel isn’t a luxury — it’s essential for heating homes, running farms and keeping businesses moving.

And as prices climb, protecting it has never been more important.

FUW warns collapsing milk prices threaten family farms across Wales

Emergency meeting highlights scale of crisis

The FUW convened an emergency meeting of its Animal Health & Dairy Committee last week after members reported widespread anxiety about milk prices. Farmers across Wales say they have seen drastic drops in payments this autumn, with processors now signalling further reductions into the new year.

Union officials said many producers had approached them confidentially, fearful of jeopardising contracts, but deeply concerned about projected milk payments that in some cases fall far below the cost of production.

Average milk prices are forecast at just 30–35 pence per litre, compared with production costs estimated at 39–44 pence per litre in a Kite Consulting report. That gap means the typical dairy farm could lose thousands of pounds each month if the trend continues.

Calls for government intervention

FUW leaders escalated their concerns directly to Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca‑Davies MS during a meeting in Cardiff on 3 December, stressing the need for government support to prevent long‑term damage to the Welsh dairy sector.

Gerwyn Williams, Chair of the FUW Animal Health & Dairy Committee, said:

“The speed and severity of this price drop are unprecedented. Farmers are facing an impossible situation where their input costs remain high while the value of their product plummets. The viability of many family farms is now at serious risk.”

He warned that if the situation extends into summer 2026, many businesses will be forced to shut:

“These modest sized family farms have invested heavily in infrastructure to comply with regulations and improve efficiencies, but reductions of this scale will severely impact their ability to make repayments as planned.”

Impact on rural communities

FUW Deputy President Dai Miles highlighted the wider consequences:

“Dairy farming underpins thousands of jobs in Wales and plays a vital role in the economic, social, and environmental fabric of our rural areas. When prices fall this sharply, it isn’t just farmers who suffer — local businesses, services, and entire communities feel the impact.”

He said the union has made it clear to government that immediate stability and a longer‑term resilience plan are essential.

The FUW says it will continue working with the Welsh Government, processors and supply‑chain partners to seek solutions and ensure dairy producers receive fair and sustainable prices.

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#DairyFarming #familyFarm #FarmersUnionOfWales #Farming #FUW #Milk #milkPrice

Tractors roll into Westminster as farmers protest Budget’s “family farm tax”

Farmers brought rush hour traffic to a standstill in Westminster on Wednesday, defying a police ban on agricultural vehicles to protest against the UK Government’s Autumn Budget and its proposed inheritance tax reforms.

Dozens of tractors entered central London from early morning, with signs reading “Starmer farmer harmer” and “rural communities betrayed by Labour.” The protest, organised under the banner Farmers to London: Budget Day, saw vehicles converge on Parliament Square and Whitehall as Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her statement in the Commons.

The Metropolitan Police confirmed that several arrests were made after protesters breached conditions banning tractors from entering the area. At least 20 vehicles were stopped in Richmond and Westminster, but many reached the heart of government, where demonstrators called for the proposed “family farm tax” to be scrapped.

Journalist Toby Young described the protest as a “furious” response to Budget plans that would “force many to sell up.”

FUW: “Step in the right direction, but not enough”

The Farmers’ Union of Wales (FUW) said the Budget offered only a partial concession to Welsh family farms, with damaging inheritance tax reforms still set to come into force next April.

FUW President Ian Rickman welcomed the Chancellor’s decision to make the proposed relief for the first £1 million of agricultural and business assets transferable between spouses — a measure the Union had repeatedly called for.

“This is a step in the right direction, and one that will help ease the challenges of succession planning for many farming families,” said Rickman.

“It is also encouraging to note that the lifetime gifting rules remain unchanged — a mechanism the Union had urged the Treasury to preserve.”

However, Rickman warned that the wider reforms still represent an existential threat to Welsh family farms, risking unaffordable tax bills for those seeking to inherit and continue the family business.

“The Chancellor’s decision to press ahead with the government’s broader proposals for inheritance tax reform remains deeply disappointing, if unsurprising. These changes still risk causing lasting damage to rural communities.”

The FUW said it would continue lobbying MPs across all parties to support amendments to the Budget that would “ensure family farms can be passed on with confidence to the next generation.”

Gareth Wyn Jones: “We will not be silenced”

Welsh hill farmer and broadcaster Gareth Wyn Jones joined the protest in Westminster, sharing footage from Parliament Square and Trafalgar Square on social media.

In one video, he said:

“We’re here to stand up for our communities, our families, and our future. This Budget is a betrayal of everything rural Wales stands for.”

Jones also posted images of tractors lined up outside HM Treasury and called on MPs to “listen to the countryside before it’s too late.”

“We will not be silenced. Family farms are the backbone of Wales — and we’re not going anywhere.”

His posts were widely shared across farming networks and drew support from rural campaigners across the UK.

For full coverage of the Autumn Budget 2025 and its impact on Wales, read our explainer here.

#autumnBudget2025 #budget #chancellor #farmers #farmersUnionOfWales #farming #fuw #hmTreasury #ianRickman #inheritanceTaxReforms #londonTractorProtest #rachelReevesBudget #rachelReevesMp #tractorProtest #ukBudget2025 #ukGovernment #ukParliament

Carmarthenshire farmer honoured with top agriculture award

Mr Evans, Vice Chair of NFU Cymru Carmarthenshire, was presented with the 2025 Farmers’ Union of Wales – United Counties Agriculture and Hunters Society Award at the FUW’s Eve of the Welsh Dairy Show Dinner in Carmarthen Market on Tuesday 28 October. The award, sponsored this year by NatWest Cymru, celebrates individuals who have made a significant impact on the agricultural sector.

From banking to farming

Starting his farming career from scratch 20 years ago, Mr Evans purchased his own farm and a small herd of cows after leaving a successful career in banking. Today he runs a 97‑hectare organic dairy farm split across two units — one housing the milking herd and the other dedicated to youngstock rearing.

Industry leadership and mentoring

Alongside running his farm, Mr Evans plays an active role in industry representation. He serves as chair of the Welsh Organic Forum and brings his financial expertise to discussions on resilience and policy. He is also a mentor with the Farming Connect Mentoring Scheme, offering practical guidance to farmers across Wales who are looking to diversify or strengthen their businesses.

Supporting the next generation

Mr Evans is a passionate advocate for agricultural education and public engagement. He regularly contributes to Carmarthenshire YFC’s My Food Plate event, introducing schoolchildren to sustainable food production and environmental stewardship. He has also completed the Fertiliser Advisers Certification and Training Scheme (FACTS) and now teaches at Gelli Aur Agricultural College, helping to train the next generation of agricultural professionals.

Praise from industry leaders

Sian Thomas, Chair of the United Counties Agriculture and Hunters Society, said:

“This award is a fitting and well‑deserved recognition of Haydn Evans’ long‑standing dedication and outstanding contribution to farming in Carmarthenshire and across Wales. He has shown unwavering commitment to supporting the next generation of Welsh farmers, ensuring they are equipped with the skills, knowledge, and confidence they need to thrive in an ever‑evolving industry.”

FUW President Ian Rickman added:

“Haydn Evans is a deserving winner of this award. Not only does this award recognise his success as a farmer, but also his tireless efforts to educate and inspire others within the agricultural community in Carmarthenshire and beyond.”

#carmarthen #carmarthenshire #dairyFarming #farmersUnionOfWales #farming #farmingConnectMentoringScheme #gelliAurAgriculturalCollege #myFoodPlate #organicFarming #unitedCountiesAgricultureAndHuntersSocietyAward #welshDairyShow #welshOrganicForum

Top award for founder of Gower View Foods

The annual award recognises individuals who have made an exceptional contribution to the Welsh dairy industry. 

Established in 2007, under Jon Lewis’ leadership, Gower View Foods has grown into one of the UK’s most recognised independent butter and dairy co-packers, supplying leading brands for many of the major retailers and food service providers across the UK and Europe.

Based at a modern, purpose-built manufacturing facility in Cross Hands, Carmarthenshire, the company’s co-packing capabilities range from portion-sized butter and bulk block production to a wide range of flavoured butters, flavoured creams, and promotional packaging solutions.

In addition to its co-packing services, Gower View Foods also produces its own range of products, including the notable Shirgar Butter and Ísey Skyr, made using a traditional Icelandic recipe on its state-of-the-art Ultra Filtration plant.

Recognised as one of the 50 fastest-growing businesses in Wales in 2020, the company’s success has been driven by a flexible, collaborative approach and more than 30 years of collective experience in the dairy industry. 

Under Mr Lewis’s leadership, the company has created skilled jobs in West Wales and has made a substantial contribution to the local economy through sustained investment, product development, and rural employment. 

Sustainability is a cornerstone of operations, with ongoing investment in renewable energy generation, recyclable packaging, plastic reduction initiatives, and advanced effluent treatment systems, supporting both environmental objectives and long-term business resilience.

The award was presented to Mr Lewis at the Farmers’ Union of Wales’ annual Eve of the Welsh Dairy Show Dinner, sponsored by NatWest Cymru, held at Carmarthen Livestock Market on Monday, 27 October 2025.

Presenting the award, FUW President Ian Rickman said:

“Jon Lewis’s leadership has made a significant contribution to the Welsh dairy sector. Through his focus on innovation, sustainability, and job creation, he has demonstrated how strong business vision can deliver real benefits for both the industry and rural communities. His achievements with Gower View Foods are an excellent example of how Welsh dairy can compete and thrive on a national stage.”

Rhys Williams, Director, Commercial Banking at NatWest Swansea & West Wales said:

“Jon Lewis has shown how strong leadership and strategic investment can turn a local business into a national success story. 

“His achievements with Gower View Foods demonstrate how commercial success and community benefit can go hand in hand, creating skilled employment, supporting local supply chains, and contributing to the wider prosperity of rural Wales. 

“NatWest Cymru is proud to help celebrate such an inspiring example of sustainable business growth.”

#CrossHands #FarmersUnionOfWales #GowerViewFoods #Natwest #WelshDairyShow

“HM Treasury has slammed the door on the industry and thrown away the key” farming union tells Welsh Affairs Committee

On Wednesday this week (4 June), the Farmers’ Union of Wales (FUW) presented evidence to the Welsh Affairs Committee on its inquiry into the challenges and opportunities of farming in Wales in 2025.

The FUW was represented by Gareth Parry, a longstanding FUW staff member, and the Union’s Head of Policy since 2024.

As part of the session, Mr Parry was questioned by MPs on a number of the ongoing challenges facing Welsh agriculture; including the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, the changes to agricultural and business property relief, and how changes to the UK Government’s funding for Welsh agriculture will impact the sustainability of the sector.

Speaking during the evidence session, Gareth Parry, FUW Head of Policy said:

“Brexit has presented us with a situation whereby UK Governments are moving away from the core policy principles of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, such as the supply of affordable food and the provision of fair incomes for farmers, and towards measures primarily designed to tackle the nature and climate crises.

“These crises are often being referred to as justification for this fundamental shift in agricultural policy and yet there remains no legislative mechanism to determine if – or when – the UK faces a food crisis. If it’s measured by the availability of food on supermarket shelves, it’ll be too late.”

The UK’s departure from the EU has also led to the loss of the intermediate-term stability provided by the EU’s seven year Multiannual Financial Framework. The lack of such replacement financial frameworks has allowed the UK Government to apply the Barnett Formula to any future adjustments to Welsh agricultural funding, meaning that Wales will receive subsequent uplifts based on a historical share of the UK population as opposed to rural needs.

“We have been absolutely clear since the referendum: if Governments provide economic sustainability to farming businesses, the cultural, societal and environmental contributions they make will naturally continue.

“However, what we are seeing is a clear appetite from the previous and current UK Governments to sign trade agreements rather than underpinning domestic food production through appropriately designed policies.”

Members of the Committee heard how the previous and current UK Governments have claimed to have protected the UK’s high food standards within their trade agreements. Yet, there has been little mention of the differences between food safety and food production standards.

“By opening the door to agricultural products from other countries where food is produced at a cheaper cost due to differences in production methods and regulatory requirements, is the UK Government undermining our domestic food producers? Yes, 100%.

“Crucially, after operating under favourable EU CAP principles for decades, the UK Government cannot ultimately pull the rug from beneath us by reforming agricultural policies and replacing domestic food production with imports, without seriously considering the economic viability of farming businesses.

“Both the UK and Welsh Governments must therefore empower the agricultural sector as a world leader in sustainable food production first and foremost, but to do so, both Governments must work collaboratively.”

Several questions during the session focused on the proposed inheritance tax reforms, with Mr Parry relaying the latest figures from Family Business UK and CBI Economics on the potential impacts for the UK economy.

“As highlighted earlier this week, the latest figures demonstrate the HM Treasury’s failure to consider the wider economic and social impacts of the proposed changes.

“It has been clear since the Budget announcement that HM Treasury Officials have had no intention of even acknowledging our concerns. They have slammed the door on the industry and thrown away the key.

“With the latest figures showing catastrophic impacts for UK family businesses and a fiscal loss of £1.9 billion for the Treasury over the next five years; with UK Government and HM Treasury Officials claiming that the policy reforms are fair, the question has to be asked; fair for who?

“We are not calling for the policy to be scrapped. Rather, we seek an opportunity to design a policy with the HM Treasury that works for genuine family businesses and closes the loopholes that currently exist.”

#FarmersUnionOfWales #Farming #FUW #UKGovernment #WelshAffairsCommittee

FUW honours Carmarthenshire’s John Owen for lifetime of agricultural innovation

Carmarthenshire’s own John Owen has been named the winner of the Farmers’ Union of Wales (FUW) External Award for Services to Agriculture, recognised for his decades-long contribution to Welsh farming at this year’s Royal Welsh Show.

With a career spanning education, research and practical innovation, John has helped shape agricultural policy and practice across Wales. From championing robotic milking at Gelli Aur College Farm to leading environmental pilot projects, his work has supported farmers with tools and insights to meet modern challenges.

Local roots, global impact

John’s journey began at Glynllifon Agricultural College, followed by a diploma at the Welsh Agricultural College, and a Phillip Henman Trust scholarship that took him to New Zealand and Australia to study international farm techniques.

After returning to Wales, he managed pedigree breeding projects for Welsh Black and Llyn sheep, before taking on the role of Farm Manager at Gelli Aur in 1993. Over the next 30 years, he helped establish the Farm Diversification and Technology Centre, and positioned Gelli Aur as a national testbed for innovation — working with the Dairy Development Centre, Hybu Cig Cymru, and farming research groups across Wales.

In 2004, John’s Nuffield Scholarship saw him revisit New Zealand to study development farms, contributing global expertise to local systems.

Champion of sustainable farming

His leadership extended to projects like Prosiect Slyri, aimed at reducing farm waste through slurry dewatering and purification, and the Tywydd Tywi weather network, which equipped farms with real-time soil and moisture data via mobile app.

Since retiring from Coleg Sir Gâr in 2023, John has continued his work as Lead Consultant for Agriculture and Environment with the LAFAN Consultancy Group, supporting rural capacity-building across South Wales.

Industry recognition

Presenting the award, FUW President Ian Rickman praised John’s “pioneering work” and “commitment to sustainable farming,” calling him a key figure whose legacy continues to benefit farmers across the country.

FUW Carmarthenshire County Chair Ann Davies MP added, “John is a true champion of Carmarthenshire agriculture. His work at Gelli Aur empowered farmers locally and nationally with the tools to thrive.”

John is a Treharne Nuffield Scholar, Fellow of the Royal Agricultural Societies, and a trustee of the Royal Association of British Dairy Farmers. He previously received the United Counties Agriculture and Hunters Society Award in 2023.

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Senedd rejects call for final vote on farming support scheme

Senedd members have narrowly voted against a proposal to hold a final, binding vote on the Welsh Government’s controversial Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS), despite widespread calls for greater scrutiny and democratic legitimacy.

The motion—tabled by Welsh Conservative MS Samuel Kurtz, shadow secretary for economy, energy and rural affairs—was defeated by 22 votes to 20 in the final session before the summer recess. It called for the Senedd to formally approve the scheme before its implementation in January 2026, citing concerns over transparency, trust, and the future of Welsh agriculture.

“A scheme of this scale, affecting over 80% of Wales’ land, must carry democratic legitimacy,” Kurtz told the chamber. “Let us vote. Let the elected members of this chamber, from every corner of Wales and from every party, have their say.”

Farming unions back scrutiny

The motion was backed by Plaid Cymru and supported by both NFU Cymru and the Farmers’ Union of Wales, who described the SFS as a “once-in-a-generation change” that demands full Senedd scrutiny.

NFU Cymru President Aled Jones said Welsh farming underpins a food sector worth £9.3 billion, employs nearly 50,000 people directly, and supports 230,000 jobs across the supply chain. He warned that the transition from the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) to the SFS could have significant economic consequences.

“For every £1 of public money invested through the BPS, £9 is returned to the Welsh economy,” Jones said. “The SFS must work for all farming sectors and areas of Wales and help ensure that Welsh farming can continue to underpin our rural communities, language and culture.”

FUW President Ian Rickman echoed those concerns, calling the scheme a “generational milestone” and urging ministers to ensure it is workable for family farms across Wales.

Welsh Government defends revised plans

Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies, who now leads on climate change and rural affairs, defended the scheme as the product of “extensive collaboration” following years of consultation and protest. He confirmed that Senedd members will have the opportunity to vote on regulations related to payment rates later this year.

“You can have your say then,” he said. “If you want to force more delay, if you want to force more uncertainty on the farming community, good luck to you—because they will not thank you.”

The revised scheme drops the previous requirement for 10% tree cover on every farm, a proposal that sparked mass protests and led to 5,500 pairs of wellies being placed on the steps of the Senedd last year. The Welsh Government now aims to plant 17,000 hectares by 2030, with enhanced payments for early adopters and flexibility on productive land.

Former rural affairs minister Lesley Griffiths said the scheme must deliver “public goods for public money,” including improved soil health, woodland management, and biodiversity outcomes.

Transparency and food security concerns

As previously reported by Swansea Bay News, the final version of the SFS was unveiled earlier this month amid calls for greater transparency and assurances around food security. Farming leaders warned that the scheme’s emphasis on environmental outcomes must not come at the expense of food production or economic viability.

The Welsh Government has argued that the SFS represents a “radical shift” away from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, tailored to Welsh needs. But critics say the scheme mirrors England’s Environmental Land Management model and risks placing “an inherent weakness at the heart of future policies.”

“We firmly believe that public goods are only a part of the picture,” said FUW President Glyn Roberts. “A more imaginative Welsh way forward should be forged.”

Plaid Cymru’s Llŷr Gruffydd has also warned that removing basic income support could push family farms “off a cliff without a safety net,” while uncertainty around trade, budget levels, and cheap imports continues to cloud the sector’s future.

Political tensions rise

The debate also exposed deepening divisions between the Welsh Government and farming unions. Labour MS Lee Waters accused some union leaders of amplifying grievance narratives and said the sector had been drawn into “culture wars.”

“I’ve stopped attending union meetings on farms,” Waters said. “The farming unions are the only groups I’ve come across who think effective engagement involves inviting a local representative to meet a group of men to be shouted at.”

Waters also warned that Brexit had left Wales with £1 billion less in funding, and that farming support must now compete with health and education within the Welsh budget.

“I’m not sure how people who voted for Wales to get less money now argue that we should spend even more on farming support. This is unserious.”

What’s next?

The Welsh Government says the SFS will be implemented in January 2026, replacing the BPS, which will be phased out by 2029. Farmers who do not join the SFS will see their BPS payments cut by 40% next year, prompting warnings of a “cliff-edge” for rural businesses.

Opposition parties say the lack of a full economic impact assessment and long-term funding clarity risks undermining confidence in the scheme. Kurtz described the current approach as a “blind leap of faith” and said trust between Labour and the agricultural sector is at an all-time low.

“Labour have simply rebranded a bad policy and hoped farmers wouldn’t notice,” he said. “By voting against our call for a binding Senedd vote, they’ve ignored an opportunity to rebuild trust.”

The next phase of the scheme will be subject to regulatory votes in the autumn, but calls for a broader debate on the future of Welsh farming are unlikely to fade.

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Welsh Government unveils final Sustainable Farming Scheme amid calls for transparency and food security

The Welsh Government has published the final version of its long-awaited Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS), marking what the Farmers’ Union of Wales (FUW) describes as a “generational milestone” for Welsh agriculture. But while the scheme aims to reshape farm support from 2026 onwards, it has also sparked criticism from opposition parties and farming leaders over funding clarity, food production targets, and the absence of an updated economic impact assessment.

The SFS will replace the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS), which has underpinned Welsh farm incomes for decades. Structured around Universal, Optional and Collaborative layers, the new scheme is designed to reward sustainable land management, biodiversity, and climate resilience, while offering flexibility for farmers to tailor their participation.

FUW: “A milestone, but not without concerns”

FUW President Ian Rickman welcomed the publication, noting that the union had invested over 300 hours of negotiations with Welsh Government officials in the past year alone. He said the scheme reflects years of lobbying and consultation since the initial Brexit and Our Land proposals in 2018.

Among the union’s key achievements are:

• A £238 million budget for the Universal Baseline Payment and BPS taper in 2026
• Retention of capped and redistributive payments to support typical Welsh family farms
• Reduction of Universal Actions from 17 to 12, with added flexibility
• Removal of the 10% tree cover rule, which had sparked widespread protests

However, Rickman acknowledged that the scheme is “not perfect.” He flagged concerns over the 10% habitat management requirement, the ambition to plant 17,000 hectares of trees by 2030, and the shorter BPS transition, which now falls to 60% in 2026, reducing by 20% annually thereafter.

“We urge all Welsh farmers to consider the Scheme requirements and payment rates in the context of your own businesses,” Rickman said. “Whether farmers decide to enter the SFS or continue with the tapering BPS, the FUW is here to support you throughout the transition.”

Welsh Conservatives: “Still in the dark”

The Welsh Conservatives have criticised the scheme’s rollout, arguing that farmers remain “in the dark” due to the lack of an updated economic impact assessment. Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs Samuel Kurtz MS said the absence of such analysis undermines the scheme’s credibility and leaves farmers unable to assess its real-world consequences.

“There are aspects of the scheme that can be cautiously welcomed,” Kurtz said, referencing the removal of the 10% tree planting requirement. “But a scheme-wide tree planting target remains, alongside a 10% habitat target, which could reduce food production in Wales.”

Kurtz also raised concerns about future funding, noting that the Universal tier budget is only matched to BPS for 2026, with no guarantees beyond that. He called for a Senedd vote to give the scheme democratic legitimacy and urged the Welsh Government to publish its impact assessment.

Darren Millar MS: “No mention of food security”

During First Minister’s Questions, Welsh Conservative Leader Darren Millar MS accused the Welsh Government of neglecting food security in its updated SFS document.

“The term ‘food security’ doesn’t appear once,” Millar said. “Yet the word ‘environment’ is mentioned 79 times, which tells you everything you need to know about Labour’s priorities.”

Millar warned that under Labour’s plans, Welsh farmers could be forced to sacrifice an area “half the size of the Vale of Glamorgan” to tree planting, while the UK Climate Change Committee recommends a 19% cut in livestock numbers — a proposal the Conservatives reject.

“For every £1 invested in farming, £9 is returned to the Welsh economy,” Millar added. “Yet Labour is freezing the £238m farming budget with no uplift, which is a real terms cut. Labour is sacrificing Welsh livelihoods and food security.”

Andrew RT Davies: “Where is the impact assessment?”

Former Welsh Conservative Leader and South Wales Central MS Andrew RT Davies, himself a farmer, echoed calls for transparency. He pointed to the previous impact assessment, which projected the loss of 5,000 farmers, 100,000 cattle, and nearly a million sheep under earlier SFS proposals.

“We need assurances there will not be devastating consequences from this revised scheme,” Davies said. “Yet Senedd ministers won’t publish an impact assessment. This obviously leads us to ask why.”

Welsh Government: “A whole farm, whole nation approach”

In its official statement, the Welsh Government described the SFS as a “whole farm, whole nation” approach to securing the future of food production while protecting the environment. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies said the scheme reflects extensive collaboration and aims to support farmers in adapting to climate change, restoring nature, and maintaining rural heritage.

The scheme includes:

• A Universal layer with 12 required actions, including soil health, hedgerow management, and animal welfare
• A tree and hedgerow planting opportunity plan, replacing the 10% tree cover rule
• A 10% habitat management requirement, with flexible options
• A social value payment recognising farming’s wider benefits
• A £1,000 stability payment for farms up to 100ha

Applications will open via Rural Payments Wales from March to 15 May 2026, with the scheme officially launching on 1 January 2026.

What’s next?

While the FUW and other stakeholders have welcomed the scheme’s publication, calls for greater clarity, economic modelling, and long-term funding commitments continue to dominate the political debate. Farming unions have urged members to review the scheme carefully and provide feedback as technical guidelines are finalised.

The Welsh Government has committed to ongoing consultation and refinement, but pressure is mounting for it to publish the impact assessment and address concerns around food production, budget stability, and administrative burden.

Swansea Bay News will continue to follow developments as the Sustainable Farming Scheme moves toward implementation.

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Farming union say report on the impacts of inheritance tax reforms cannot be put any clearer

An independent report recently published by CBI Economics and commissioned by Family Business UK provides comprehensive estimates of the economic and fiscal impacts of the proposed Business Property Relief (BPR) and Agricultural Property Relief (APR) reforms for family businesses and farms across the United Kingdom.

The report analyses the findings from 4,147 family businesses and farms across the UK. It suggests that the reduction in business activity will lead to a loss in Gross Value Added (GVA) of £14.8 billion over the next five years.

This could lead to a potential loss of 208,500 full time jobs, and while the Exchequer expects to raise £1.8 billion in tax revenue by 2030 as a result of the reforms, the report estimates a net fiscal loss of £1.9 billion over the same period.

Responding to the publication, Gareth Parry FUW Head of Policy said:

“The findings from this comprehensive report are alarming, although not surprising for the Farmers’ Union of Wales. These figures demonstrate exactly what we, and many others, have been warning about since the Budget Statement last year.

“Specifically for the farming sector and its associated supply chains, the proposed APR reforms are predicted to result in 28,300 job losses, demonstrating yet again the HM Treasury’s failed attempts to justify its proposals based on simple economic calculations. The potential wider economic and social impacts are now clear to see.”

For both business turnover and investment, the agricultural and horticultural sector is expected to see the greatest declines. In Wales, the changes are expected to reduce GVA by £580 million, result in 9,715 job losses and reduce business turnover by 12.2%.

“Whilst our focus is clearly on the agricultural sector in Wales, this report highlights very clearly the possible financial impacts for family businesses across all UK sectors.

“We will certainly be referring the Welsh Affairs Committee to the findings of this report as they continue with their inquiry into the opportunities and challenges of farming in Wales on Wednesday.

“But with such clear and comprehensive analyses now available on the UK-wide impacts of these reforms for all family businesses, how long can the UK Treasury continue to ignore such findings before agreeing to work with all sectors to design a fair policy?”

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