EditorSENEDD SHAKE-UP: Winners and losers revealed as First Minister on course to lose seat
A major new YouGov poll has sent shockwaves through Welsh politics — with projections suggesting the First Minister could lose her seat and Labour suffer heavy losses across west Wales.
The YouGov poll, using detailed constituency modelling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, points to a Senedd transformed — with Plaid Cymru emerging as the largest party and Reform UK surging into second place.
Wales-wide picture: Plaid on top as Senedd expands
Across Wales, the poll suggests a dramatic shift in power as the Senedd prepares to expand from 60 to 96 members under a new electoral system.
Plaid Cymru is projected to win 43 seats, making it the largest party but still short of an overall majority.
Reform UK is forecast to take 30 seats — a huge leap for a party that has never fought a Senedd election before.
Labour is projected to fall to just 12 seats, with the Greens on 10, while the Conservatives collapse to a single MS and the Liberal Democrats fail to win any representation.
The key number is 49 — the threshold needed for a majority in the new Senedd.
Under these projections, Plaid Cymru and the Greens together would hold 53 seats, enough to form a government without Labour.
Analysts say the results point to a fragmented but firmly left-leaning Senedd — with Plaid in the strongest position to lead the next government.
Mike Hedges is projected to retain his seatSwansea Council leader, Rob Stewart looks like missing out on a Senedd seatGŵyr Abertawe: big names miss out
In Gŵyr Abertawe, Labour would return incumbent MS Mike Hedges, who tops the party’s list.
But there would be no seat for Swansea Council leader Rob Stewart, who sits second — despite his high-profile role in recent national debates.
Reform UK would secure two seats, meaning former Conservative-turned-Reform councillor Francesca O’Brien would be elected alongside Steven Rodaway.
Plaid Cymru would return Gwyn Williams and Safa Elhassan, while West Cross councillor Chris Evans would take a seat for the Greens.
Adam Price looks like he’s set to remain in the Senedd, despite placing third on Plaid’s party list (Image: Plaid Cymru)Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid dominance, Labour wiped out
In Sir Gaerfyrddin, Plaid Cymru is projected to dominate with four seats — returning Cefin Campbell, former Assembly Member Nerys Evans, ex-party leader Adam Price and Mari Arthur.
Reform would take the remaining two seats, with Gareth Beer — who came close to winning Llanelli at the last general election — joined by Carmelo Colasanto.
Labour is not projected to win a single seat in the constituency.
Welsh Lib Dem leader, Jane Dodds could be on the way out, with the party projected to not pick up a single seatBrycheiniog Tawe Nedd: four-way split
In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, the result is finely balanced across four parties.
Plaid would return Sioned Williams and Rebeca Phillips, while Reform would elect James Evans and Iain Charles McIntosh.
Labour would hold onto one seat through Mahaboob Basha BEM — as previously reported when he topped Labour’s list for the area — while Neath Port Talbot councillor Nathan Goldup John would take a seat for the Greens.
The result would see Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds miss out on a seat in the constituency.
Deputy First Minister, Huw Irranca Davies looks likely to save his seatBuffy Williams looks set to miss out howeverAfan Ogwr Rhondda: Labour heartland shaken
In Afan Ogwr Rhondda, Plaid is projected to take three seats, with Sera Evans, Alun Geraint Cox and Elyn Stephens all elected.
Reform would secure two seats through Benjamin McKenna and Sarah Cooper Lesard.
Labour would be reduced to a single representative — Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies — with current Rhondda MS Buffy Williams losing her place.
The result signals a major shift in one of Labour’s traditional strongholds.
Eluned MorganSamuel KurtzPaul DaviesBig names on the way outCeredigion Penfro: First Minister loses seat
In Ceredigion Penfro, Plaid would again lead with three seats, returning Elin Jones alongside Kerry Elizabeth Ferguson and Anna Nicholl.
Reform would take two seats through Susan Claire Archibald and Paul Marr, while Amy Nicholass would be elected for the Greens.
Crucially, Labour is not projected to win any representation here — meaning First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.
The constituency would also see senior Conservatives Paul Davies and Samuel Kurtz both miss out.
Big picture: political map redrawn
Across west Wales, the projections point to a dramatic political shift — with Reform UK emerging as a major force and traditional parties losing ground.
Despite the upheaval, Plaid Cymru remains the dominant party across every constituency in the region.
For voters, the implications are significant — from who represents their communities to how decisions are made on key issues like healthcare, transport and the cost of living.
With the election approaching, these results suggest one thing above all else — the political landscape in west Wales is changing fast.
And for some of Wales’ biggest political names, this could mark the end of the road.
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