Councils warn £6.4bn Welsh Government funding plan still leaves schools and care services under pressure
The provisional figures, published today, promise an average 2.7% increase in funding for local authorities, with a guaranteed minimum uplift of 2.3%. Newport receives the largest rise at 4.3%, reflecting growth in its school‑age population. But the Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA) says the overall £169m cash increase falls far short of the £560m shortfall councils expect to face next year.
Education and social care at the sharp end
Education already accounts for nearly 40% of council spending in Wales, and the strain is visible locally. Carmarthenshire, which will receive £384.8m next year — up £8.9m, or 2.3% — has embarked on a programme of school closures and mergers in recent years, citing rising costs and falling pupil numbers.
Swansea, meanwhile, will receive £494.1m, an increase of £16.1m, also at the minimum 2.3% uplift. Neither council has yet commented publicly on the draft settlement, but WLGA modelling suggests that even a 3% increase would still leave councils hundreds of millions short, raising the prospect of further cuts or tax hikes across Wales.
Leaders warn of structural pressures
WLGA Labour Group Leader Andrew Morgan OBE said the settlement “offers a degree of stability” but warned that “social care, homelessness, education and workforce costs continue to rise faster than resources can keep up.”
Independent Group Leader Mark Pritchard described the gap between demand and resources as “untenable,” warning redundancies would be inevitable without additional support. Plaid Cymru’s Gary Pritchard said many councils were already operating at the limits of what is safe or sustainable, and called for reform of the funding formula. Liberal Democrat Group Leader Jake Berriman added that rural and semi‑rural areas face higher delivery costs that a flat percentage uplift “simply doesn’t reflect.”
Political pressure mounts
Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan MS warned the settlement could lead to “council tax increases of 22% or 14,000 job losses,” while Welsh Conservative shadow local government secretary Joel James said the figures showed the need for “fundamental change” to the funding system.
The Welsh Government said the draft budget marked only the start of negotiations. Cabinet Secretary for Housing and Local Government Jayne Bryant said the settlement was designed to give councils “the stability they need to set budgets which protect and deliver core frontline services.” Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford added that ministers would work closely with councils and opposition parties to ensure the final budget “safeguards jobs and protects frontline services.”
The final settlement is expected in January following consultation and Senedd negotiations.
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