morkansMay 27
Charlie Stross

This is how the AI bubble bursts: https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/917380/ai-monetization-anthropic-openai-token-economics-revenue

There is no conceivable way to break even for the AI industry—let alone to repay an investment that requires $2Tn a year from now to the end of the decade. That's about 3% of the entire planetary GNP. Just to break even.

May 27 at 7:33pmWeb
Show threadSimon ZerafaMay 27

@cstross

I'm guessing that the bubble will pop in 12 to 18 months.

I can see them generating this level revenue.

I wonder whatbthats going to look like for the rest of the economy? 🥺

Show threadCharlie StrossMay 27

@simonzerafa No, it'll burst sooner than that. Once SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI have IPO'd the big hypemongers will take their loot and run away, very fast, leaving the shareholders holding the bag.

Back in '99-00, the dot com bust followed a wave of IPOs as founders cashed out …

Show threadSimon ZerafaMay 27

@cstross

I only have vague memories of the Dot Com bubble and crash but it seem serious at the time.

I was working for CompuServe when we were acquired by AOL and things went downhill after that.

Show threadChris PetrilliMay 27

@simonzerafa @cstross not a great bit of data, but from living through the dot com era, this is likely 100x the money and even more concentrated risk. I cannot see how we get out of this without major economic impact.

Not to the people who caused it, of course. We wouldn’t want consequences to befall the Chosen Ones.

Show thread⠠⠵ avukoMay 27

@petrillic @simonzerafa @cstross

It is literally the ultimate (final and greatest) grift of all time.

Show threadBilly Smith4d ago

@petrillic @simonzerafa @cstross

The Chosen Ones:

You mean the Sociopaths from The Gervaise Principle:

https://ribbonfarm.com/series/the-gervais-principle/

https://ribbonfarm.com/2009/10/07/the-gervais-principle-or-the-office-according-to-the-office/

The Gervais Principle

A fully realized theory of management through the lens of The Office

Ribbonfarm
Show threadT Alex BeamishMay 28
@simonzerafa @cstross Oh .. that brings back memories of reading about new CompuServe members from AOL flooding the formerly pastoral forums, then being the first to turn around and bash the even newer AOL members who were arriving.
Show threadDarwin WoodkaMay 28
@talexb @simonzerafa @cstross eternal September
Show threadChrisMay 27
@cstross @simonzerafa how many of those founders are now VC backers of the new bubble.
Show threadJ. R. DePriest    :EA DATA. SF:May 27

@cstross @simonzerafa

The dotcom bubble killed a lot of companies and not always the "right" ones. This current bubble's insanity is like dotcom + Y2K + S&L. The fallout will likely cripple multiple economies and ruin 401ks across the board. This is looking like a generational collapse on the scale of The Great Depression largely because the current US government is an active participant in the looting and destruction. I suspect multiple governments will prop it up long after it should be dead just to maintain access to the surveillance it enables and use our taxes to do it. Its death will not cripple authoritarian fascists, but it will make it that much harder for the proles to get access to the same tools. Remember when PGP was considered a restricted weapon? I suspect more of that type of thinking to keep it out of our hands but fully in the government's. Just look at how Mythos is being treated.

Show threadBilly Smith4d ago

@jrdepriest @cstross @simonzerafa

Just make sure that your 401K has switched to the S&P500, as they are the only index that is refusing to take AI stocks. :D

Show threadBilly Smith4d ago

@jrdepriest @cstross @simonzerafa

Another idea just hit me:

Make sure that you tell the people running the S&P500 that this is the reason that you bought from their indexes.

Make sure that they understand if they change their minds, then you will dump their stocks.

Show threadJ. R. DePriest    :EA DATA. SF:3d ago

@BillySmith @cstross @simonzerafa

I need to call my 401k company because it's all Blackrock LifePath. I will definitely mention this is the reason. Fuck Elon Musk, fuck genAI.

Show threadgnomeoffenderMay 27
@cstross @simonzerafa you mean cached out.
Show threadChip ButtyMay 27
@cstross @simonzerafa I'm guessing all the people advertising about getting involved in these upcoming IPOs know exactly what they are doing then
Show threadBilly SmithMay 28

@otfrom @cstross @simonzerafa

The real reason is that they're desperately trying to get the sleepers to believe in the Basilisk Cult:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip2pJ_61eTU

:D

Mage: the Ascension

YouTube
Show threadAndrew JenningsMay 27
@cstross @simonzerafa you can see a scenario where nvidia chugs on and all of the platforms go
Show threadF4GRX SébastienMay 27

@cstross @simonzerafa I really hope so.

Anyways this will never erase the damage that was done to humanity and to the internet. It will take generations to clean up.

Show threadHavard HavardMay 28
@cstross @simonzerafa I miss the time when the worst thing tech CEOs could do as they were blowing through millions of dollars was wear leather pants.
Show threadJürgen HubertMay 28

@cstross @simonzerafa

Current scuttlebutt has the SpaceX IPO in June, OpenAI in September, and Anthropic in October. Even if these get delayed for a bit, we still might get a crash for the all-important Christmas season.

_So_ glad that I have a stable job in an industry that isn't directly affected by this mess.

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5892110-openai-spacex-anthropic-stock-market/

Show threadPatrick GeorgiMay 28

@cstross My guess is that it starts in November: US mid-terms are a historical time of turmoil on the financial markets, no matter how they turn out. This time politics are a bit crazier than usual, which makes me think that those pendulum swings will be bigger than usual, too.

When _anything_ else happens in the economy (and there's enough on the plate for that), the "put more money into the burning pit" strategy going on with AI right now might suffer a hard blow.

Doesn't mean that the AI craze is gone by November, but I expect noticeable shifts by March that started as ripples around November.

Show threadMark HughesMay 28

@cstross
Don't you need institutions to underwrite an IPO and unless it goes well they will be hit hard financially. So will they do it?

Is Space bolloX going to be the first?
@simonzerafa

Show threadBakunin BoysMay 31
@cstross @simonzerafa how / why did the exchanges even let them IPO? that sounds like reputational risk if nothing else.
Show threadCharlie StrossMay 31

@bakuninboys @simonzerafa Exchanges get a transaction fee per buy/sell. They don't care about the share price: it's the backers of the IPO who deserve the roasting for over-valuing the shares at launch.

(Obligatory disclaimer: this is ignoring the issue with shareholder-owned corporations with tradable shares, i.e. it's a license for grifters.)

Show threadBakunin BoysMay 31
@cstross @simonzerafa wow that's seriously scary. Like I thought they had a bunch of prudential regulation to stop complete scammers from being on them.
Show threadCharlie StrossMay 31
@bakuninboys @simonzerafa Regulation lags behind exploitation: new exploits are always coming along. And it's even worse when the government itself is targeted by the scammers (see attempts to neuter regulators, the Trump regime, etc.)
Show threadBakunin BoysMay 31
@cstross @simonzerafa OK one whole meta level up, it's extra crazy how whatever crazy thing has happened in the past can be explained by gesturing at the current US regime. This is a solid "how the heck did we get here" stare off in the distance. "Oh yeah, we live inside a punch line"
Show threadmarkJun 18
@cstross @simonzerafa this
Show threadUkiah Danger SmithJun 18

@cstross @simonzerafa

As a programmer for a large tech company (non-fang) that pushes me to use Ai/LLM, how do I survive this?

Show threadMike McCaffreyMay 27

@simonzerafa @cstross I've been saying the AI bubble is about to pop for over 30 months now.

Unfortunately, even though you can identify when a tree is rotten, you can never predict exactly when a big enough gust of wind will come to finally blow it down.

Show threadDavid Penfold May 27

@mikemccaffrey @simonzerafa @cstross

I was in a dot-com company (that missed the IPO train) and knew the game was up way before it all went south. I left six months before they got sold to OpenText for a measly £4 million, my 10s of thousands of options worth nothing and the company products basically no longer existing.

As an aside, I was working for Hummingbird a few years later when they too got acquired by OpenText. Which was a bit crap, as they sucked the joy out of what was a great place to work.

Show threadJim HubbellMay 27
@mikemccaffrey @simonzerafa @cstross
To continue the rotten tree analogy, if the rot is extensive enough, you don't even need a puff of wind.
Show threadWolf480plMay 27
@mikemccaffrey
Last time I heard wind being used in the context of economy, it was a metaphor for high interest rates.
We could use some of those.
@simonzerafa @cstross
Show threadJess👾May 28
@mikemccaffrey @simonzerafa @cstross Unfortunately, the market can stay irrational for a shockingly long time.
Show threadFrank HeijkampMay 28
@JessTheUnstill
Making the damage even greater.
@mikemccaffrey @simonzerafa @cstross
Show threadChip UnicornMay 28

@mikemccaffrey @simonzerafa @cstross

Dornbusch's Law: “Financial crises take much, much longer to come than you think and then they happen much faster than you would have thought. So you have a chance to be wrong twice.”

Show threadFrank HeijkampMay 28

@simonzerafa
Unless they charge something between 200 and 2000 each month per #ai user 'seat'. This will raise serious questions if it is really worth it?

Is every single employee in your company actually saving time and money that is anywhere near the amount that a monthly license will cost?

Keeping in mind the extensive handholding and checking those tools need. We have all seen the examples of dangerously misbehaving agents. Do the costs outweigh the benefits?
@cstross

Show threadWilhelm GereMay 29

@simonzerafa @cstross

There won't be an economy, as such. They're already firing people en masse or not rehiring those that have retired or left for other reasons. Or we'll die of starvation first as ICE gets rid of the people who pick our fruit and vegetables.

Show threadTheCurler3May 27
@cstross Hopefully all those people losing their jobs now because AI is taking their job will get hired back. Hope this bursts before they build the ones around me where they will suck our source of drinking water dry in less than 10 yrs.
Show threadMidgePhotoMay 27
@thecurler3 @cstross
Hopefully they will have set up new businesses of whatever form, and replace the old ones, rather than return.
Show threadMaximummium OveracticansMay 27

@thecurler3 @cstross

Industries will burn before the investor class allows them to rehire. Maybe after 35% of the S&P go through bankruptcy we can begin again.

Show threadOwl EyesMay 27
@cstross Alas, there's a paywall
Show threadMeercat ✅ 
May 27
@d1 Here https://archive.fo/QKeI7
Show threadSolithaMay 27
@meercat0 @d1 The archive-dot sites are bad. You can, however, turn off javascript, reload the page, and turn javascript back on to get past the paywall.
Show threadmathewMay 27
@solitha @meercat0 @d1 Or just install Bypass Paywalls Clean, or add its rules file to your existing ad blocker. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bypass_Paywalls_Clean
Bypass Paywalls Clean - Wikipedia

Show threadSolithaMay 28

@mathew Eh, think I'll avoid downloading anything from a Russian site (and my adblocker is my browser).

There is now a copy of the article on Internet Archive, and I linked it elsewhere in the comments. Much more trustworthy.

@meercat0 @d1

Show threadmathewMay 28
@solitha @meercat0 @d1 You can just add the filter rules to your regular ad blocker like I do. No need to trust any software from a Russian web site.
Show threadSolithaMay 28

@mathew @meercat0 @d1 Well, I'd have to go to the Russian web site to find the rules, which is a non-starter for me.

Finding the rules is beyond my limited tech knowledge, as is how I would add any such rules to Vivaldi.

Temporarily toggling javascript works for me.

Show threadmathewMay 28
@solitha @meercat0 @d1 Here's the URL for the bare text file with the rules in:
https://gitflic.ru/project/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-clean-filters/blob/raw?file=bpc-paywall-filter.txt
Show threadSolithaMay 28

@mathew I feel like you're not really reading all I'm saying, so let's just let it go, please.

@meercat0 @d1

Show threadmathewMay 29
@solitha @meercat0 @d1 I was just responding to the concerns you brought up, mostly for the benefit of anyone else reading the thread who might have similar concerns. If you don't want to use it, that's fine, I have no problem with that. And thanks for making people aware of the issues with archive.is.
Show threadOwl EyesMay 28
@solitha @meercat0 by golly it works
Show threadSolithaMay 28

@d1 I've only recently learned the trick, and it's proven helpful most of the time.

My spouse knows how to get into the webpage code to do the same thing, but I don't have that expertise, and most blocks seem to be javascript.

@meercat0

Show threadMeercat ✅ 
May 28
@solitha Can you please elaborate a little as to why archive dot sites are bad? Thank you in advance
Show threadSolithaMay 28

@meercat0 Sure. I lose track of where I've posted this sometimes.

Only archive.org, the Internet Archive, is trustworthy. The rest seem to be a constellation of shady sites.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/02/wikipedia-bans-archive-today-after-site-executed-ddos-and-altered-web-captures/

Wikipedia blacklists Archive.today, starts removing 695,000 archive links

If DDoSing a blog wasn't bad enough, archive site also tampered with web snapshots.

Ars Technica
Show threadMeercat ✅ 
May 28
@solitha ah OK, didn’t know this. Thanks a lot
Show threadFernheadMay 27
@cstross You just have to believe that it will all work out. Better prompts will bring prosperity and contentment.
Show threadCaller ID SpoofedMay 28
@Fernhead @cstross Better living through promptometry.
Show threadJon PENNYCOOKMay 27
@cstross meanwhile, my employer is no longer talking about blockchain and NFTs (to promote environmental awareness!) and is now keen on AI and quantum. It did have a brief fling with 3D ages ago.
Show threadJustin DerrickMay 27
@cstross And remember everyone - when they call and ask if you want your job back, you should be asking for a minimum of 25% more…. 50% if you think you can get it.