This is how the AI bubble bursts: https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/917380/ai-monetization-anthropic-openai-token-economics-revenue

There is no conceivable way to break even for the AI industry—let alone to repay an investment that requires $2Tn a year from now to the end of the decade. That's about 3% of the entire planetary GNP. Just to break even.

@cstross

I'm guessing that the bubble will pop in 12 to 18 months.

I can see them generating this level revenue.

I wonder whatbthats going to look like for the rest of the economy? đŸ¥º

@simonzerafa No, it'll burst sooner than that. Once SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI have IPO'd the big hypemongers will take their loot and run away, very fast, leaving the shareholders holding the bag.

Back in '99-00, the dot com bust followed a wave of IPOs as founders cashed out …

@cstross @simonzerafa

The dotcom bubble killed a lot of companies and not always the "right" ones. This current bubble's insanity is like dotcom + Y2K + S&L. The fallout will likely cripple multiple economies and ruin 401ks across the board. This is looking like a generational collapse on the scale of The Great Depression largely because the current US government is an active participant in the looting and destruction. I suspect multiple governments will prop it up long after it should be dead just to maintain access to the surveillance it enables and use our taxes to do it. Its death will not cripple authoritarian fascists, but it will make it that much harder for the proles to get access to the same tools. Remember when PGP was considered a restricted weapon? I suspect more of that type of thinking to keep it out of our hands but fully in the government's. Just look at how Mythos is being treated.