Charlie Stross4d ago

This is how the AI bubble bursts: https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/917380/ai-monetization-anthropic-openai-token-economics-revenue

There is no conceivable way to break even for the AI industry—let alone to repay an investment that requires $2Tn a year from now to the end of the decade. That's about 3% of the entire planetary GNP. Just to break even.

Show threadSimon Zerafa4d ago

@cstross

I'm guessing that the bubble will pop in 12 to 18 months.

I can see them generating this level revenue.

I wonder whatbthats going to look like for the rest of the economy? đŸ¥º

Show threadCharlie Stross4d ago

@simonzerafa No, it'll burst sooner than that. Once SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI have IPO'd the big hypemongers will take their loot and run away, very fast, leaving the shareholders holding the bag.

Back in '99-00, the dot com bust followed a wave of IPOs as founders cashed out …

Show threadBakunin Boys13h ago
@cstross @simonzerafa how / why did the exchanges even let them IPO? that sounds like reputational risk if nothing else.
Show threadCharlie Stross13h ago

@bakuninboys @simonzerafa Exchanges get a transaction fee per buy/sell. They don't care about the share price: it's the backers of the IPO who deserve the roasting for over-valuing the shares at launch.

(Obligatory disclaimer: this is ignoring the issue with shareholder-owned corporations with tradable shares, i.e. it's a license for grifters.)

Show threadBakunin Boys13h ago
@cstross @simonzerafa wow that's seriously scary. Like I thought they had a bunch of prudential regulation to stop complete scammers from being on them.
Show threadCharlie Stross
@bakuninboys @simonzerafa Regulation lags behind exploitation: new exploits are always coming along. And it's even worse when the government itself is targeted by the scammers (see attempts to neuter regulators, the Trump regime, etc.)
9:39amWeb
Show threadBakunin Boys13h ago
@cstross @simonzerafa OK one whole meta level up, it's extra crazy how whatever crazy thing has happened in the past can be explained by gesturing at the current US regime. This is a solid "how the heck did we get here" stare off in the distance. "Oh yeah, we live inside a punch line"