عیدِ محکوماں، ہجومِ مومنیں

عیدِ محکوماں، ہجومِ مومنیں

ڈاکٹر مقصود جعفری

Shooting a cannon during Ramadan - Bahrain

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Russia’s Collective Security Vision For The Gulf Is Now A Realistic Possibility

Russia’s Collective Security Vision For The Gulf Is Now A Realistic Possibility

By Andrew Korybko

The Third Gulf War is radically reshaping the Gulf Kingdoms’ perceptions of American reliability and leading them to consider the need to negotiate a post-war regional security arrangement with Iran.

Reuters reported that “Behind the scenes, resentment is mounting ​in Gulf Arab capitals at being drawn into a war they neither initiated nor endorsed but are now paying for economically and militarily”. They added that “At the same time, analysts say the war has left Gulf states reassessing both their security dependence on Washington and the prospect of eventually engaging Tehran on new regional security arrangements — even as trust in Iran has collapsed.” That would be the best outcome for everyone.

It was assessed here at the start of the Third Gulf War after Putin’s calls with regional leaders that one of the goals that his envisaged mediation aims to achieve is for the Gulf Kingdoms to rescind the permission that they gave the US to use their territories and airspaces for attacking Iran. That would force the US into the dilemma of defying them at the risk of rupturing their relations or acceding to this new regional military reality and then pursuing what would likely be a (Russian–mediated?) compromise with Iran.

As surreal as it may seem, Lindsey Graham of all people arrived at a very similar conclusion last week. He wrote on X, “why should America do a defence agreement with a country like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that is unwilling to join a fight of mutual interest?… Hopefully Gulf Cooperation Council countries will get more involved as this fight is in their backyard. If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it? Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.”

The US military’s departure from the Gulf would solve three problems at once: Iran would no longer be threatened by these forces; the Gulf Kingdoms would be safer since Iran wouldn’t attack them anymore for hosting them; and the US wouldn’t have to defend partners that have proven themselves to be freeloaders. Far from the security vacuum that critics imagine would follow, the Gulf Kingdoms and Iran could begin work on a three-phased regional security plan mediated by their shared Russian partner.

The end goal is for the Gulf Kingdoms and Iran to agree to Russia’s long-proposed Collective Security Concept for the region that readers can learn more about in detail here. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also recently referenced it when articulating Russia’s official position towards the Third Gulf War and its hopes for the direction in which the region will go afterwards no matter how unlikely it might now seem to some. Two preliminary steps are required, however, which will now briefly be touched upon.

The first is what can be described as a Gulf Non-Aggression Pact (GNAP), the specifics of which remain to be negotiated but would reasonably include limits on where certain military assets can be deployed, codes of conduct, and crisis communication channels, et al. Once this is agreed to, and it admittedly won’t be an easy task, then Iran could join the Saudi-Pakistani alliance like it’s reportedly considered doing since late last year. This can then form the core of Russia’s envisaged collective security bloc.

To review, the military-political sequence that Russia hopes to mediate in the Gulf is a cessation of hostilities through a series of reasonable mutual compromises, the departure of the US military from the region, GNAP, Iran joining the Saudi-Pak alliance, and then a collective security bloc forming afterwards. Up until the Third Gulf War began, most would have dismissed this strategic vision as a political fantasy, but Reuters’ recent report suggests that this is now a realistic possibility for the region’s post-war future.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

Russia’s Middle East Doctrine: Analysing Sergey Lavrov’s Response To The Third Gulf War

Russia’s Middle East Doctrine: Analysing Sergey Lavrov’s Response To The Third Gulf War

By Andrew Korybko

Many mistakenly believe that Russia is allied with Iran against the Gulf Kingdoms and Israel, but the reality is that it’s always carefully balanced between them, though that doesn’t mean that Russia won’t call out what it considers to be Israeli aggression against Iran and Arab hypocrisy.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov articulated his country’s official position towards the Third Gulf War, which began with the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran, during an Ambassadorial Roundtable last week. He began by lamenting that it “can have dire consequences for the entire world, undermine global stability and economy, upend everything which used to be called globalisation, and viewed as a process for bringing about prosperity for the entire humankind. All this has been destroyed.”

He then segued into acknowledging the internal debates with the US over its goals as well as the contradictory statements thereto from its leading officials. In his view, “one of the goals consisted of sowing division among countries within this region, i.e., the Persian Gulf countries, Iran and its Arab neighbours.” This has admittedly been achieved to an extent and correspondingly impedes Russia’s master plan of promoting a Collective Security Concept for the Gulf that it’s worked on for years already.

According to Lavrov, “Each participating country would set out the threats or the risks to its security as it sees them. Then we could begin with an agreement on transparency in military activities; transparency and perhaps limitations on the number of exercises that each country along the Gulf coast conducts. That would include mutual visits by military personnel and joint economic and trade projects.” That’s obviously not going to happen anytime soon, let alone at all, given the Third Gulf War.

Be that as it may, Lavrov described both the Arabs and Iranians as Russia’s strategic partners with whom it sympathizes due to the suffering caused by the war that was unleashed by the US-Israeli duopoly, which might possibly come to receive support from NATO if some senior officials get what they want. Russia is thus calling for an immediate end to their aggression and is disappointed that its Gulf partners are reportedly considering sponsoring a UNSC Resolution that condemns Iran but not the US and Israel.

He instead suggested that they follow the US’ lead from last year when it sponsored a UNSC Resolution calling for an end to the Ukrainian Conflict as soon as possible. Their shared US ally will of course “seize upon such an initiative” as the abovementioned one that they’re reportedly considering sponsoring because it “will only divide countries” even more, he said, so the odds of them following his advice are low. Nevertheless, Lavrov reaffirmed Russia’s interest in mediating, which Putin earlier made apparent.

Near the end of the event, he also reaffirmed Russia’s support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, which it considers to be the reason for regional instability. He then explained Russia’s abstention from last fall’s UNSC Resolution on the basis that his country didn’t want to block it after its Arab partners supported it. All in all, Lavrov’s articulation of Russia’s official position towards the Third Gulf War and related issues like the Palestinian one was a timely reminder of its actual policy.

Many mistakenly believe that Russia is allied with Iran against the Gulf Kingdoms and Israel, but the reality is that it’s always carefully balanced between them, though that doesn’t mean that Russia won’t call out Israeli aggression against Iran and Arab hypocrisy like Lavrov just did several times. Russia clearly sympathizes with Iran and might even be sharing intelligence with it for targeting the US’ regional assets, but ultimately, Russia wants to mediate an end to the conflict before it spirals out of control.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

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