Russia’s Collective Security Vision For The Gulf Is Now A Realistic Possibility

Russia’s Collective Security Vision For The Gulf Is Now A Realistic Possibility

By Andrew Korybko

The Third Gulf War is radically reshaping the Gulf Kingdoms’ perceptions of American reliability and leading them to consider the need to negotiate a post-war regional security arrangement with Iran.

Reuters reported that “Behind the scenes, resentment is mounting ​in Gulf Arab capitals at being drawn into a war they neither initiated nor endorsed but are now paying for economically and militarily”. They added that “At the same time, analysts say the war has left Gulf states reassessing both their security dependence on Washington and the prospect of eventually engaging Tehran on new regional security arrangements — even as trust in Iran has collapsed.” That would be the best outcome for everyone.

It was assessed here at the start of the Third Gulf War after Putin’s calls with regional leaders that one of the goals that his envisaged mediation aims to achieve is for the Gulf Kingdoms to rescind the permission that they gave the US to use their territories and airspaces for attacking Iran. That would force the US into the dilemma of defying them at the risk of rupturing their relations or acceding to this new regional military reality and then pursuing what would likely be a (Russian–mediated?) compromise with Iran.

As surreal as it may seem, Lindsey Graham of all people arrived at a very similar conclusion last week. He wrote on X, “why should America do a defence agreement with a country like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that is unwilling to join a fight of mutual interest?… Hopefully Gulf Cooperation Council countries will get more involved as this fight is in their backyard. If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it? Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.”

The US military’s departure from the Gulf would solve three problems at once: Iran would no longer be threatened by these forces; the Gulf Kingdoms would be safer since Iran wouldn’t attack them anymore for hosting them; and the US wouldn’t have to defend partners that have proven themselves to be freeloaders. Far from the security vacuum that critics imagine would follow, the Gulf Kingdoms and Iran could begin work on a three-phased regional security plan mediated by their shared Russian partner.

The end goal is for the Gulf Kingdoms and Iran to agree to Russia’s long-proposed Collective Security Concept for the region that readers can learn more about in detail here. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also recently referenced it when articulating Russia’s official position towards the Third Gulf War and its hopes for the direction in which the region will go afterwards no matter how unlikely it might now seem to some. Two preliminary steps are required, however, which will now briefly be touched upon.

The first is what can be described as a Gulf Non-Aggression Pact (GNAP), the specifics of which remain to be negotiated but would reasonably include limits on where certain military assets can be deployed, codes of conduct, and crisis communication channels, et al. Once this is agreed to, and it admittedly won’t be an easy task, then Iran could join the Saudi-Pakistani alliance like it’s reportedly considered doing since late last year. This can then form the core of Russia’s envisaged collective security bloc.

To review, the military-political sequence that Russia hopes to mediate in the Gulf is a cessation of hostilities through a series of reasonable mutual compromises, the departure of the US military from the region, GNAP, Iran joining the Saudi-Pak alliance, and then a collective security bloc forming afterwards. Up until the Third Gulf War began, most would have dismissed this strategic vision as a political fantasy, but Reuters’ recent report suggests that this is now a realistic possibility for the region’s post-war future.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

After oil, war of water? Why desalination plants are turning into targets in Middle East – explained

The ongoing conflict in West Asia is entering a new phase as desalination plants, a key source of…
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https://www.newsbeep.com/427051/

Iran’s Strategy: Expand the War, Increase the Cost, Outlast Trump

https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/world/europe/iran-war-strategy-trump-israel.html

The Gulf States’ Hosting Of US Forces Actually Made Them Less Safe

The Gulf States’ Hosting Of US Forces Actually Made Them Less Safe

By Andrew Korybko

From Iran’s perspective, they’re all complicit in the US’ massive first strike even if the role that US military infrastructure in their countries allegedly played was only indirect in the sense of providing radar or just logistical support, with this perception and its response thereto being totally predictable.

Prior to the joint US-Israeli campaign against Iran, there was a belief among the Gulf States that hosting US forces strengthens their security by deterring hypothetical attacks by Iran, yet that thinking was just discredited over the past few days after Iran launched strikes against all of them. The pretext was that US military infrastructure on their territories allegedly played a role in attacks against it, but regardless of whatever one thinks about that, the fact is that hosting US forces actually made them less safe.

At the time of this analysis’ publication, none of the Gulf States have retaliated against Iran, but it can’t be ruled out that one, some, or all of them are planning to do so. If more than one of them goes to war against Iran, which they all might be reluctant to do due to how vulnerable their energy and civilian sites are, then it’s possible that Saudi Arabia would take the lead as the core of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), their regional integration group. They’d obviously coordinate this with their shared US ally.

The UAE might opt out of coordinating military action with Saudi Arabia due to the recent revival of their rivalry, but in any case, the point is that Saudi Arabia would still attempt to reaffirm its self-assumed role as the regional leader by rallying the smaller countries under its aegis. Intra-GCC feuds aside, another commonality between these countries apart from their shared US ally and economic dependence on resource exports is the optics of Iran’s attacks, which might be perceived by them as a Persian-Arab War.

They’ve been rivals for centuries, but their competition took on a sectarian dimension after Iran’s 1979 revolution and subsequent efforts to export its then-new governing model throughout the region, particularly in Arab states with significant Shiite populations. Likewise, these same Arab states’ consequently common cause with Israel vis-à-vis Iran led to some in the Islamic Republic considering them traitors to the faith, thus further worsening mutual perceptions and associated tensions.

This contextualizes why they decided to host US forces as a deterrent, but the security dilemma that had already set in between them and Iran led to the latter perceiving this as a means of better defending themselves ahead of the retaliation that would follow a speculatively planned massive first strike. Iran then began identifying targets on their territories and ensuring that it could still hit them after surviving a massive first strike, which ultimately came last weekend, albeit without their direct participation.

Nevertheless, from Iran’s perspective, they’re all complicit in what just happened even if the role that US military infrastructure in their countries allegedly played was only indirect in the sense of providing radar or just logistical support. Iran’s aforesaid perception and its response thereto in this context were totally predictable, yet the Gulf States were already so tethered to the US that none of them wanted to risk its ire by asking its forces to leave once regional tensions worsened in the run-up to the ongoing war.

They’re therefore all paying the cost of their epic miscalculation that hosting US forces strengthens their security when it actually guaranteed that they’d be targeted once Iran was hit by the massive first strike that their shared American ally and its Israeli partner were planning for years. This is a lesson that the US’ allies in Europe and Asia should keep in mind in case it ever sends similar clear signals just like it did vis-à-vis Iran that it’s preparing for a massive first strike against Russia and China respectively.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

Trump’s Gulf Allies Do Not Want Him to Bomb Iran

https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/world/middleeast/gulf-trump-iran.html

Introduction

Empowerment of women is currently characterized by a lot of diverse perspectives, consequences, concepts and interventions. Women’s empowerment is a critical topic in connection to economics and the development of a nation.

Research Aim

This research aims to study the influence of the local environment on Women’s individual-level empowerment in the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Research Questions

The research will be guided by the following research questions;

Research Objectives

Literature Review

The research is grounded on a study that entails probing abstract online files and the utilization of the google scholar exploration machine as the source resource.

 Five conception empowerment scopes have been obtained throughout the literature; cultural, psychological, legal and social dimensions.

Numerous theories and contexts have informed research and conclusions on the solutions to better leverage resources and strategies to better the status of women entrepreneurs in diverse areas.

 An intertwining of two major theoretical contexts will be best applicable: the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), gender-aware context and sustainable development goals (SDGs).

The last theoretical context utilized to position this current research is the gender-aware context recognized as the 5Ms model (Sheikh et al., 2021).

Methodology

The research used the systematic assessment method.

This approach employs a critical literature analysis, which is a vital step before steering any research studies.

The methodical review encompasses clear inclusion and exclusion standards, a clear search approach, methodical coding and analysis of encompassed research, and quality evaluation.

Results

The aim of the research prompts the aspects which influence women’s empowerment in Gulf Council Cooperation.

The research results categorise the aspects which affect women entrepreneurship or leadership positions in the GCC across the examined studied to determine what are the utmost regular aspects.

 The research came up with the following hypothesis;

Conclusion

Eight aspects which affect the empowerment of women in the leadership and entrepreneurship sectors were identified. Relative correlations between these aspects were reputable by use of the frequency model data analysis method.

Some of the aspects to be considered include personal traits, balancing work with life, financial availability and role model existence. In sum, hopefully, the study’s results will motivate governments and firms to formulate tactics toward a better entrepreneurship environment for women entrepreneurs in Golf-Cooperation Council.  

https://thegmetalworks0.wordpress.com/2024/11/01/womens-empowerment-in-gulf-cooperation-council-research-proposal/

#EmpowermentOfWomen #GulfCooperationCouncil #WomenSEmpowerment