🌍 Can we predict atmospheric CO₂ growth?

Using 6 Earth System prediction systems with an interactive carbon cycle, we show:
• Useful predictions of atmospheric CO₂ growth and air-land CO₂ fluxes for up to 2 years
• Air–sea CO₂ fluxes are predictable for a longer time, up to 5 years
• Predictability partly linked to ENSO — but not exclusively

An important step toward early warnings for carbon cycle shifts and climate extremes.

👉 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0139.1

#CarbonCycle #ClimatePrediction #CO2

Prolongation de la mission PREFIRE de la NASA : de minuscules satellites surveillent désormais le climat de la planète entière

La mission révolutionnaire PREFIRE a été prolongée jusqu'en 2026. Deux satellites CubeSat avancés étendront désormais l'observation des pôles au monde entier, fournissant des données clés sur l'énergie terrestre.

climateprediction.net | University of Oxford

Website for climateprediction.net (CPDN), a volunteer computing project and the world’s largest climate modelling experiment

🌍 Call for Abstracts – Deadline Extended to 31 July 2025!
📢 The workshop on Climate Predictability & Integrated Attribution — co-organized by #MPIM_scientists Lara Wallberg & Wolfgang Müller — invites your contributions!

🔍 Topics: climate variability, predictability, #extremes, #AI/#ML methods & more.
💡 Organized by ASPECT, EXPECT, I4C & WCRP.

📄 Submit now: https://www.upcliv-workshop.eu
#ClimateScience #ClimatePrediction #ClimateExtremes #ScienceCollaboration

A talk with PhD candidate Edson Silva about about one of the newest tools in our predicting arsenal, an algae bloom predictor. Trained on the coast of north #Norway, it can be a great support for managing our costs, but it can be retrained for usage anywhere: https://bjerknessenteret.podbean.com/e/predicting-algae-blooms-a-new-tool-in-our-arsenal/ #ClimatePrediction #AlgaeBloom #Climate #Research #Podcast
Predicting algae blooms - a new tool in our arsenal | Bjerknes Climate Podcast

Phd-student Edson Silva at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center is talking with our host Stephen Outten, Senior researcher at the Nansen center, about one of the newest tools in our predicting arsenal, an algae bloom predictor. Trained on the coast of north Norway, it can be a great support for managing our costs, but it can be retrained for usage anywhere. Support and editing by Ingjald Pilskog, associate professor at Western Norway University of Applied Sciences.

El Niño Watch Has Been Issued By NOAA, With Large-Scale Atmospheric And Oceanic Changes Now Being Detected As We Head For The Next ENSO Phase
--
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino-watch-noaa-forecast-seasonal-weather-impact-summer-winter-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ <-- shared article
==
El Niño Watch Issued By NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
--
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-watch-issued-noaa-climate-prediction-weather/ <-- shared media article
==
El Niño Disrupts the Marine Food Web
--
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/86895/el-nino-disrupts-the-marine-food-web <-- shared technical article
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #global #marine #extremeweather #elnino #elniño #ecosystems #remotesensing #climate #climateprediction #weather #climaterisk ##ElNinoWatch #ecosystem #currents #cooling #warming #water #thermocline #nutrients #foodsupply #foodweb #MODIS #drought #hurricanes #SouthernOscillation
NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration | NOAA National Ocean Service | NOAA Fisheries##
El Nino watch has been issued by NOAA, with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic changes now being detected as we head for the next ENSO phase

Weather in the United States, Canada and Europe is expected to be under the influence of an El Nino event later in the year, including Winter

Severe Weather Europe

Since I joined before the burst, here's a more proper #introduction.

I am a climate scientist and professor at Texas A&M University. I am interested in the philosophy and practice of climate modeling. I have written a general interest book on climate prediction and I blog occasionally at Metamodel.blog

As George Box said, all models are wrong, but some are useful. It is only by studying how models go wrong can one determine which are the most useful.

#ClimateChange #Climate #ClimatePrediction