1. Meta embraces ActivityPub, federates with mastodon.social, uses Fediverse servers as a "look at all the people you can talk to on day one!"

2. People on Fediverse start following/mingling with Threads accounts, thereby tightly integrating the network effect between the two

3. People decide that if they can get access to the Fediverse through Threads instead of Mastodon, which is for "dumb nerds", they'll go with Threads

4. "Threads will be ending support for ActivityPub on September 1st, 2026 - click here to import your Mastodon account"

5. Fediverse users leave en masse so they can keep talking to their friends on Threads

6. Blog post Eugen: "I didn't want to believe they would go this far"

#Threads #Meta #Mastodon

https://mastodon.social/@Mastodon/110664109379249958

@AmyZenunim I get not trusting them (I don’t either) but Instagram already has many orders of magnitude more users than Mastodon does. Why would Meta go to the trouble, time and expense of integrating ActivityPub just to poach a tiny fraction of their existing user base in two years? I think they’re sincere in their bet that content creators have been spooked by erratic platforms, and they’re going to demand more control over their audiences. Meta is aiming for Twitter, not Masto.

@Skafantaris "I think [Meta is] sincere" ahahahahahahahahah

ahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAH

ah, thanks, I needed a good laugh

@Skafantaris @AmyZenunim because spending a few salaries every now and then on crushing a rival is absolutely nothing, cost-wise, to an entity which can afford many developers just to come up with more convoluted APIs merely to render the website, to say nothing of actually running it.

@Skafantaris @AmyZenunim If you actually want to understand these entities, you have to understand that these entities are not individuals and thus do not have an individual's reasons about things. Even exceptional leaders cannot simply impose their will on structures, they can only truly grow structures.

Facebook, Google, and others have grown structures which work, without even anyone's intention, to buy out, outcompete, or otherwise "dispose of" rivals, without any active malice required.

@Skafantaris @AmyZenunim Exactly.This threat model makes no sense. If anything it would be the other way round: Fedi poaches from Insta's vastly larger userbase.
@Skafantaris @AmyZenunim I bet there is some project manager at Meta who is sincere right now, but he’ll be out in 6-12 months and replaced with someone who’s job is to juice the numbers. You can never trust a corporation since they have no accountability.

@kalleboo @Skafantaris @AmyZenunim This is so accurate when it comes to corporations. An (arguably) entity that humans have invented but is so difficult to hold to account because every aspect of it is interchangeable with some other human fulfilling a role with the company's best interests as their goal.

The problem is that, "the company's best interests" never (almost never?) fully align with society's best interests.

@Skafantaris @AmyZenunim for the same reason I put 50 seeds in the ground. They all won’t sprout or flourish but the ones that do will bear fruit some day.
@AmyZenunim so believable, it’s basically a prophecy

@AmyZenunim

> What would stop that from repeating? Well, even if Threads abandoned ActivityPub down the line, where we would end up is exactly where we are now. XMPP did not exist on its own outside of nerd circles, while ActivityPub enjoys the support and brand recognition of Mastodon.

fuck, he really does think he is ActivityPub, huh?

@jubilee @AmyZenunim This is the thing I'm so hung up on. The irony that his understanding of his place on this OPEN platform is one driven purely by ego
@AmyZenunim Or Threads's users who didn't even know about #fediverse discover that it exists and, surprise, decide throw it out of the walled gardens! To the surprise of "enlightened pessimists" 😬😏

@AmyZenunim perhaps more like:

1. Threads federates with mastodon.social
2. Folks from third-party instances start suing Threads for datamining mentions and boosts (because, even tho the posts aren't visible to Threads, the mentions/replies and boosts are)
3. Threads claims mastodon.social is to blame
4. Legal fees fall on mastodon.social.

(IANAL, but facebook probably has an agreement for instances to indemnify/cover liability for Threads)

@AmyZenunim thank you for spelling it out

i've been talking about this like everybody knew facebook's (and others') modus operandi of exploiting network effects until they can gain critical mass and impose a de facto monopoly but i guess not everyone's paid even that much attention
@AmyZenunim the good ol' Embrace, Extend, Extinguish

@AmyZenunim
1. Meta embraces ActivityPub with their Threads App: "Look all that people"

2. People on Threads speak with all the nerds on Mastodon that speak bad about Threads and explain that Mastodon is much better because of privacy and no ads.

3. Over time people join Threads but also leave it after they understand the Fediverse.

4. A fork of Mastodon looks like Threads and makes switching easier.

5. Meta quits Threads and the rest of their users switch to other Fediverse applications.

@duco @AmyZenunim as we have seen with other websites people almost always think of mastoodj as an HOA who will get mad if you don't content warn a post saying I'm cold with cw weather
@skymtf I was never asked to add a content warning to any of my posts nor have I seen anyone getting angry about it on others. So I can not relate to your experience and don't know what "other websites" you refer to. HOA = Home Owner Association? That's a construct in the USA, right? I don't know how they are. But in Mastodon if you don't like someone you can block them. If you don't like the rules of your instance, you can switch.
@duco yeah just like always happens with EEE, you're so right, facebook have no reason to try and outcompete mastodon for users
@duco @AmyZenunim This is what we in the biz call wishful thinking.
@duco @AmyZenunim For the record, all the privacy-concerned people would rightfully block MetaFacebook and the people on MetaFacebook couldn't care less about privacy. Like, my own brother doesn't even want to use an adblocker despite me being a privacy advocate and my mother having taught us to be prubacy-conscious since we first got access to the internet xD

@reina @AmyZenunim of course my Szenario is a positive one in contrast to the negative Szenario it reacted to.

Why should anyone block Threads for privacy concerns? If you don't interact with people from Threads nothing is shared with them, that isn't public. An instance doesn't have to block them, so every single person can decide for themselves. Even if you interact, there isn't much shared.

@duco @AmyZenunim lol, my point is that you're being naive for thinking that's what'll happen.

Firstly, to address your claim that """If you don't interact with people from Threads nothing is shared with them, that isn't public.""" As long as anyone on Threads follow you, they have access to all your posts except DMs. If you message someone there, they can also access those DMs. There's a lot of data to gather there. Not just that, but if you personally block Threads but literally anyone who's followed by someone on Threads boosts your post, they get access to it, even if you require authentication for API access.

This is part of why instances need to block Threads. To protect their users from a company who have historically over-collected data and mishandled that data.

Anyway, look up Embrace, Extend, Extinguish. Historically, what's happened is that big corporations have embraced open standards, extended them, and made it basically impossible to run on your own. XMPP and email are both great examples of that. Corporations want money. There's literally no way Facebook would've followed the ActivityPub standard if they didn't think it would benefit them in some way.

@reina @AmyZenunim your posts are public. Everyone can already access them, if you block them or not.
If you DM someone on Threads that's an interaction. So my claim wasn't false.

XMPP was never mainstream. Before and after Facebook an Google used them it's used by a small group. History can repeat with Threads, true, but it isn't necessarily the case. And blocking them doesn't make the Fediverse more popular either.

My claim is, we should use them to improve the Fediverse.

@AmyZenunim
TBH I wouldn't mind a mastodonless fediverse.
I usually have negative experiences mastodoners.
@AmyZenunim History is bound to repeat itself if we don't push against Threads
@AmyZenunim or mastodon.social turns into threads
> 1. Meta embraces ActivityPub, federates with mastodon.social, uses Fediverse servers as a "look at all the people you can talk to on day one!"


Yeah, if they follow the Mastodon playbook they'll call Fedi the Streams network and say that the Streams network already has millions of users, plus show posts from all over Fedi on their start page firehose.

@AmyZenunim

@AmyZenunim
3(b).
External content will be a blurry preview inside a red frame "Warning, external Content from untrusted sites, click here to view if you trust them"

Big green button "Invite them to migrate to Meta/Threads so you can see all they do right now without hassle"

@AmyZenunim 好吧感觉确实像小扎会干的事儿…… seems really like what Zuck would do…
@AmyZenunim well, both google and facebook messenger did that to XMPP, I used to have my own server and chat with google talk users a long time ago, then they shut off server-to-server...

also, lol:

> Well, even if Threads abandoned ActivityPub down the line, where we would end up is exactly where we are now. XMPP did not exist on its own outside of nerd circles, while ActivityPub enjoys the support and brand recognition of Mastodon.
@AmyZenunim
"5. Fediverse users leave en masse so they can keep talking to their friends on Threads"

You had me until here. Fediverse users won't leave en-mass to sign up to Threads. Users from mastodon.social or the November 2022 migration? Well that's another story.
@AmyZenunim since they have decided to federate with Meta, lets fedi block mastodon.social
@AmyZenunim "Gosh, I never thought leopards would eat MY face"
@AmyZenunim 3 is what doesn't really happen. People who are savvy enough to have a fedi account (be it Mastodon or something else) already are already weighing things like terrible/nonexistent moderation, ads, data collection, etc. that happen to them on big tech social media and don't happen on Mastodon. Others either don't care and never will, or can be encouraged to move to the good side of fedi - especially when a bunch of their slightly nerdier friends leave Threads behind.
Can't agree more. This is exactly the game plan and it is sad to fall again in the same trap. Google already did it once with jabber. I can't believe how shortsighted people can be. Perhaps they (Eugene) just think they did so well that it's impossible for someone, even Meta, to simply crush their creation. Or they have their own agenda... which is aligned with the game plan. After all Mastodon is privately owned company, no?
@AmyZenunim I don't think they'll announce a cutoff date. It'll be more like they'll stop federating with Threads and ask people on Mastodon to signup for Threads to continue following their friends
@AmyZenunim back when XMPP was at its peak, I wasn’t using Google Talk myself, but I naively recommended it to others I wanted to stay in touch with. We all know how that went. I’m not doing this again with Mastodon/Threads.

@AmyZenunim Embrace, Extend, Extinguish.

It's a model for businesses that had worked time and time again.

@[email protected]

This makes no sense. #threads does not need #mastodon users, because it already has far more users via #instragram.

And as Eugen pointed out correctly, if #threads cuts off #activitypub some day, then everything will be again as it is now.

If you are afraid of #threads being too successful, then the solution is not to block and wall off (this makes the problem only worse), but to make #mastodon better.

@folkerschamel
I remain convinced that poor moderation on Treads will lead it to be blocked by most instances. But until that day. Say hello.
@MrLee This may indeed happen, maybe not. Let's see.
@folkerschamel This corporation has been sued for violating several privacy laws. Its inception was because Mark wanted to stalk women. They helped murder Muslims for inciting hate speech. They already violate the Mastodon ToS. Migrating with them is the suicide of ActivityPub
@dreamer72 I agree that #meta has many ugly sides, but I also think that 99% if people using or working on #Facebook, #instagram or #threads are decent people not having done anything you are describing.
@folkerschamel What an idiotic take!
@AmyZenunim you put into words exactly what shot through my mind when I heard about this crap. Reminds me so much of the plot of the last season of Silicon Valley.

@AmyZenunim How are we going to be able to leave fediverse and move over to threads when threads isn't even available where we live?

The fact that they launch this without offering it to European users seems like they set it up to flop.

Threads violates so many privacy laws that they will not be able to set up in Europe.

@AmyZenunim embrace, extend, extinguish.
@AmyZenunim except the people who would prefer Threads over fediverse instances to contact the rest of the fediverse are already not here. Them joining via threads and leaving via threads will make no difference.
@AmyZenunim
IMO, this is bound to happen but has nothing to do with ActivityPub. Threads using AP is more or less just a marketing piece - “See, we’re hip! We federate” kind of thing. I think it’s less about destroying the Fediverse and more about taking advantage of Twitter’s downfall.
@AmyZenunim This is EXACTLY how it happened with #XMPP and I unknowingly facilitated it.
@AmyZenunim there are a couple of positive differences though. We as a community won't recommend it this time though and threads is flatout illegal in the EU so Europeans will stay on mastodon. Although we will see if that will be enough.
@AmyZenunim Perhaps, but I think that for point 5, rather than Fediverse users “leaving”, they’ll just create Threads accounts in addition to their Fedi accounts so that they can talk to friends in both places. The network effect works in both directions.
@AmyZenunim And proof of the Eugen's exceptional modesty:
"XMPP did not exist on its own outside of nerd circles, while ActivityPub enjoys the support and brand recognition of Mastodon"
@AmyZenunim Yep. This particular bit of the post makes me the most angry. It is absolutely laughable to think that anyone or anything on this planet could force Meta to be less exploitative.

@AmyZenunim
Not very optimistic about the success of federation tbh

Meta folks adding fediverse friends to their network is something i am sceptical.
After all a whole bunch of people found it “hard” to join fediverse because they found all this server concept too confusing

Now to add threads friend they can do $friend and for fediverse they have to do [email protected]? Too confusing for a whole lot of people