Iran War Sitrep #30: ‘Preemptive destruction’ debated in Tehran as US forces amass!
Iran War Sitrep #30: ‘Preemptive destruction’ debated in Tehran as US forces amass | AMWAJ | 31 MAR 2026
In collaboration with prominent Iranian academic and scholar Dr. Hamidreza Azizi, Amwaj.media endeavors to publish daily situation reports on the Iran War on Mondays-Fridays. The focus will be on Iranian strategic narratives.
The economic dimensions
Economically, the war’s impact continues to deepen.
- Oil prices have risen to 115 USD per barrel, suggesting that markets are reacting primarily to battlefield developments rather than diplomatic signaling.
At the same time, Israeli and US strikes continue to expand across Iran’s industrial base.
- A petrochemical facility in the northwestern city of Tabriz and infrastructure linked to Isfahan University of Technology have been targeted, reinforcing a pattern of gradual degradation of Iran’s economic and scientific capacity.
- Iran’s response continues to mirror this pattern. Iranian strikes have increasingly focused on infrastructure-related targets in Israel, including petrochemical and industrial facilities, indicating a sustained shift toward reciprocal infrastructure warfare.
- This dynamic is reinforced by Iranian assessments that Israel is pursuing an incremental strategy aimed at destroying Iran’s infrastructure over time without triggering a large-scale response. In turn, some Iranian analysts are calling for more disproportionate and combined vertical and horizontal escalation to deter further attacks.
Map: Amwaj.mediaCreated with
Datawrapper The military- and security-related dimensions
Iranian strategic assessments increasingly point to a prolonged conflict, with expectations that the war could last at least eight more weeks and may escalate further, including the potential deployment of US ground forces.
- In response, Iranian planning is no longer centered on absorbing strikes but on shaping the battlefield in advance.
- A concept described as “preemptive destruction” is emerging, involving continuous targeting of US bases, logistics hubs and staging areas in countries such as Bahrain and Kuwait to disrupt any potential ground or heliborne operation before it can be executed.
- This builds on the earlier shift toward “active preemption” and reflects a more offensive posture aimed at suppressing US force buildup at its source rather than responding after an operation.
The United States, however, continues to move in the opposite direction.
- Reports indicate preparations for limited ground operations involving US special forces and airborne units, alongside the deployment of additional naval assets and Marines to the region.
- Iranian officials appear to be taking these signals seriously. Military statements emphasize readiness for scenarios involving island seizures, heliborne raids or limited incursions, while also framing such operations as opportunities to inflict significant casualties on American forces.
On the battlefield, Iran continues to apply sustained pressure through low-intensity but continuous missile fire, aimed less at immediate destruction and more at maintaining constant disruption and psychological pressure inside Israel.
- Confirmation of the destruction of a US E-3 AWACS aircraft in Saudi Arabia has been widely amplified in Iranian media, serving as a major morale boost and reinforcing the narrative that high-value American assets are increasingly vulnerable.
Beyond the Gulf, the war’s geographic scope continues to widen.
- The entry into the conflict of Yemen’s Ansarullah movement—better known as the Houthis—has raised concerns about the security of the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab, with explicit threats to potentially disrupt shipping there under certain conditions.
- European maritime authorities have already warned vessels to avoid Yemeni waters, indicating that even limited Houthi involvement is beginning to affect shipping behavior.
Map: Amwaj.mediaCreated with
Datawrapper The political dimensions
The Strait of Hormuz remains a central lever for the Islamic Republic. Iran continues to allow selective passage for certain countries while maintaining broader restrictions, reinforcing its role as a regulator of maritime traffic and avoiding a full blockade.
- At the same time, diplomatic efforts are attempting to translate this leverage into a negotiated framework. Proposals reportedly discussed in Islamabad include the creation of a multinational consortium to manage oil flows through the Strait, potentially offering a face-saving off-ramp for both Iran and the United States. However, informed sources in Tehran told Amwaj.media that a consortium involving regional stakeholders is not likely to be welcomed by Iran.
- Iran’s decision to allow a Saudi oil shipment to transit toward Pakistan on the same day appears to align with this diplomatic track, suggesting cautious signaling toward a potential diplomatic solution.
Regionally, fault lines among Arab neighbors of Iran are becoming more visible.
- While some Gulf states are moving toward a more confrontational stance alongside the United States, others—particularly Oman and Qatar—continue to pursue de-escalation and maintain either neutral, in the case of Muscat, or cautious positions.
Map: Amwaj.media. Note: The body of water separating Iran, Iraq and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council is variously referred to as the Persian Gulf, Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Basra.Created with
Datawrapper
Inside Iran, there is a noticeable shift in tone. While earlier phases of the war were marked by concern over regime survival, current discourse increasingly emphasizes achieving strategic outcomes and reshaping the long-term balance.
- This is reflected in official messaging. Statements by senior military and political figures stress not only resilience but also perceived successes, including continued control over the Strait of Hormuz, sustained missile operations and the involvement of regional allies such as Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis.
- At the same time, internal security measures are intensifying. Authorities have expanded arrests, business closures and digital surveillance, while the chief justice has warned of severe punishment for those deemed “betraying the homeland,” reflecting continued concern about domestic stability.
- Meanwhile, in a key political signal, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has framed Iran’s war strategy around a three-dimensional framework: “missiles, the streets, and the strait [of Hormuz].” This reflects an integrated approach combining military pressure, control over global energy flows, and sustained domestic mobilization.
- Qalibaf’s emphasis on “the streets” is particularly notable. The political establishment continues to call on its supporters to enter public spaces every night, both to project internal cohesion externally and to deny the opposition any opportunity to mobilize under wartime conditions.
Overall, Day 30 reflects a further shift toward anticipatory escalation. Iran is increasingly attempting to disrupt future operations before they occur, while Israel and the United States continue to expand pressure on Iran’s infrastructure, bringing both sides closer to a phase where escalation is driven less by reaction and more by preemption.
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source
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https://twitter.com/mashabani/status/2038987029355155522
https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/2039030938059915382
https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/2039028835706864131
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