Show threadanlomedadDec 17, 2023

@earthworm
Re #Climate #ClimateCrisis I often hear "buy us some time", and "every tenth of a degree matters".
Regarding the actual remaining time, I approach this from the project management perspective:

What is the goal?
Preventing civilisation #collapse.
What are the prerequisites?
Cultural change toward global solidarity.
Which deadlines are to be kept?
Is defined by civilisation's vulnerabilities: A prepared and solidary culture can cushion #WeatherExtremes from higher CO2 levels before the fabric rips apart, than an unprepared and unsolidary culture like ours today.
Our culture today can find its irreparable breaking point in the extremes caused from 1.5°C already. While a solidary culture and civilisation has to stay at 1.7C without overshoot to keep its harbour infrastructure intact long enough so it can slowly adapt to unavoidable #SeaLevelRise and avoid other nasty #TippingPoints

How big is that #CO2budget?
550Gt for 1.7C – IF culture change has occurred.
When must the culture change have occurred so that taking steps toward keeping in budget becomes likely?
The required CO2budget for the global transformation sets this deadline: my optimistic rollout plan requires 450Gt CO2 to reach CO2zero and the project requires an optimistic 1 year preparation before the actual kickoff. Little to no wriggle room is left for obstacles like on-time availability of raw materials for grid and renewables expansion. (=One reason for itemised #rationing during transformation and for systemic #degrowth !)
So 450Gt plus 1 year preparation time = 490Gt off the 1.7C budget. 490Gt is required for saving civilisation. 490Gt of 550Gt.
So when exactly is the deadline for cultural change that allows the beginning of taking steps?
Within 60Gt from January 2023:
December 2024.
By December 2024 all or most global decision makers in media, economy, and politics must have shown that they turned toward global solidarity as foundation for all decision making.
If this widespread change does not occur by Dec 2024, and if our culture stays as unprepared and unsolidary, it is rather certain that civilisation implodes before 2040 from cascading fallouts of extremes on societies and human systems.
If said culture change occurs by 2030 but project preparation and subsequent rollout have not begun in January 2025, civilisation is still doomed, collapse occurs anyway, and likely before 2040, as well. Because keeping global stability at least for the time of the transformation project also requires #ClimateSafetyNet to be installed for every citizen – which also takes time to prepare and rollout. And while it isn't installed, civilisation is very very vulnerable, regardless of its new well-meaning culture. Preparation of the safety net beginning in 2030, and its rollout a realistic 5 years later, would be too late to sufficiently cushion early blows. Keeping global stability is then unlikely.
Also, by 2030, the budget for the civilisation-threshold of 1.7C wd have become too small: civilisation would have eaten up 320Gt of the remaining 550Gt.

What can we do to turn global decision makers toward global solidarity on time, ie by December 2024? If you know a film maker I can give them bullet points for a movie like "Threads" with #Bezos, #Zuck, #Sunak and #Lindner in the leading roles. Lindner and Sunak die of untreated leucemia in 2035 from unmanned nuclear reactors in meltdown . Bezos and Zuck starve to death in 2036. And my bullet points for the movie explain why it came to that.

Decision-makers must see that all their money is worthless and won't save their lives in a meaningful way for long. Only if they grasp their own vulnerability on time do we have a chance to turn them toward global solidarity on time. On time for saving civilisation. A movie might do the trick. But it must show known faces, lest the mind escapes into its usual thought pattern "It magically won't hit me, only others."

Deadline: December 2024 !
@ScienceDesk

Show threadanlomedadDec 1, 2023
@c_ozwei
Sehr wahr!
Abgesehen von alten Petro-Staaten können junge oder "emerging" Öl-Staaten besser $$ in eine eigene #erneuerbare EE-Infrastruktur und Grid stecken. RE macht natürlich unabhängig von Energieimporten, auf die man vmtl. noch angewiesen ist.
Spart nicht nur $$ und #CO2 aus Produktion und Verbrennung von #fossilen, sondern reduziert auch #Emissionen aus Schifffahrt, weil der Zwang von ständiger Nachlieferung entfällt.
Global North soll für EE-Fabriken und Know-how-Transfer zahlen, damit ganze Regionen unabhängig werden. Unabhängigkeit wirkt sich auch dämpfend auf globale Strategiespiele der Usual Suspects aus. Wer würde nicht gerne unabhängig von #Putler werden?
Alte Petro-Staaten wie Iran brauchen - wie jeder Staat ein #ClimateSafetyNet auf Regierungsebene. Und direkt auf Bürgerebene, um Korruption zu vermeiden. So ein SafetyNet transferiert proaktiv Geld an Bürger und Regierungen >BEVOR< sie vom vorhergesagten #Wetterextrem Schaden haben, oder SCHNELL danach.
anlomedadDec 1, 2023
Old petro states aside, the young or emerging ones can put the $$ into own #renewable infrastructure and grid. RE of course makes them independent from energy imports that they presumably still rely on.
This will save not only $$ and #CO2 from producing & burning #FossilFuels, it'll also reduce #emissions from shipping because the need for permanent re-supply vanishes.
Let Global North pay for RE factories and know-how transfer so whole regions become independent in this regard. What independence will do to the obnoxious global strategy games by the usual suspects remains to be seen. Who wouldn't want to become independent from #Putler?
Old petro states like Iran need a #ClimateSafetyNet on government level – like every state, really. And directly on citizen level, too, to nip corruption in the bud. A safety net proactively transfers money to people & govts >BEFORE< they'll suffer damage from a forecasted #weather extreme or QUICKLY after. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2405859-cop28-energy-transition-may-cut-oil-producing-states-revenue-by-60/
COP28: Energy transition may cut oil-producing states’ revenue by 60%

Without more international support, the transition away from fossil fuels could have disastrous effects for low-income countries reliant on their oil and gas industries

New Scientist
Show threadanlomedadDec 1, 2023
@CarbonBubble
Old petro states aside, the young or emerging ones can put the $$ into own #renewable infrastructure and grid. RE of course makes them independent from energy imports that they presumably still rely on.
This will save not only $$ and #CO2 from producing & burning #FossilFuels, it'll also reduce #emissions from shipping because the need for permanent re-supply vanishes.
Let Global North pay for RE factories and know-how transfer so whole regions become independent in this regard. What independence will do to the obnoxious global strategy games by the usual suspects remains to be seen. Who wouldn't want to become independent from #Putler?
Old petro states like Iran need a #ClimateSafetyNet on government level – like every state, really. And directly on citizen level, too, to nip corruption in the bud. A safety net proactively transfers money to people & govts >BEFORE< they'll suffer damage from a forecasted #weather extreme or QUICKLY after. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2405859-cop28-energy-transition-may-cut-oil-producing-states-revenue-by-60/
COP28: Energy transition may cut oil-producing states’ revenue by 60%

Without more international support, the transition away from fossil fuels could have disastrous effects for low-income countries reliant on their oil and gas industries

New Scientist
Show threadanlomedadNov 9, 2023

@c_ozwei

Gute Ideen hast Du da.
Falls Du Dich schon bald ans Plotten machst, tu den Bruch nicht erst 2050/2060 rein.
Der Bruch passiert schon früher.
Und das liegt daran, dass in dem, durch hohe Emissionen erwiesenermaßen Solidaritäts-losen Geist auch alle anderen sozialen Bereiche unzureichend bedacht werden. Auf den nationalen und auch den internationalen Ebenen wie UN, IMF, Weltbank.
Wenn Solidarität nicht früh genug zum Fundament für jede Entscheidung wird (und dafür hab ich ne Deadline im Projektplan: Dezember 2024), ist der komplette Zusammenbruch der Ordnung samt aller Lieferketten vorgezeichnet.

Zu beobachten bereits heute in dem Gürtel Afghanistan, Pakistan, Indien, Bangladesh.
Wobei auch die Regierungen dieser Staaten Solidaritäts-los agieren, und nicht nur Empfänger unserer Solidaritäts-losigkeit sind. Nee nee, die drehen selbst fleißig an den Stellschrauben Richtung Zusammenbruch. Was sie aber nicht tun "müssten", wenn unsere Regierungen auf Solidarität schalten würden. Dezember 2024 ist Deadline. Sonst klappt die Entwicklung und Installation der Solidaritäts-Sicherheitsnetze #ClimateSafetyNet nicht vor 2030.

Ich werde noch nicht plotten. Ich werde mir wohl die Mühe antun und detaillierter aufschreiben, wie der Verlauf bis 2040 sein wird –und wie es dann wo weitergeht. Sozusagen die Storyline zum neuen #RCPcollapse.

Show threadanlomedadNov 9, 2022

@ZeynepinLE @muenchengene
Adaption tools are developed and installed. They're just not so in the public eye. For example, WorldBank has a climate safety net up and running for Kenia and some other countries. Works like this IIRC: When a predictable disaster like a drought or a storm/flood is forecasted, the safety net transfers money beforehand to citizens' bank account, accessible via mobile phones. That way, after the disaster has struck, those citizens don't need to sell their remaining possessions like they had to before, in order to buy food or building material for rebuilding. Those aided citizens won't slide into absolute poverty but can rebuild onsite and keep a broader community afloat.

That a disaster-struck region can request satellite monitoring by ECMWF is also an example for adaption measures the general public doesn't know about.

#WorldBank #ClimateSafetyNet #ECMWF #Adaption