Il Tempo: Meteo, arriva il Super El Niño: cosa ci aspetta nei prossimi mesi

Arriva il Super El Niño e l'estate 2026 sarà estremamente calda e con eventi violenti in tutto il mondo. A rivelarlo le ultime previsioni del Ecmwf, il Centro europeo per le previsioni meteorologiche a medio termine che parlano di un aumento della temperatura degli oceani stimato di almeno 2 gradi e di valori letteralmente impazziti per minimo tre mesi. Secondo gli esperti, il super El Niño porterà anche il 2027 a essere l'anno più caldo di sempre da quando esistono le rilevazioni. Tutta colpa del fenomeno atmosferico che quest'estate farà registrare anomalie al di fuori della normalità. Il semplice El Niño infatti prevede un aumento termico di 0,5 gradi rispetto alla media mentre le stime parlano di oltre i 2 gradi e questo porterà l'arrivo di un mega fenomeno atmosferico.
Come ricostruito da Il Resto del Carlino che ha sentito Pierluigi Randi, presidente di Ampro (associazione meteo professionisti), El Niño sarà molto consistente e avrà effetti molto evidenti in Europa. A preoccupare è proprio l'innalzamento delle temperature globali che ne conseguiranno.
Non è di certo una novità: tra 2023 e 2024 un altro fenomeno atmosferico ha provocato temperature medie record con la superficie dell'oceano che aveva raggiunto i 21 gradi e con fenomeni climatici violenti in tutto il mondo.

Weather, Super El Niño is arriving: what awaits us in the coming months.

The Super El Niño is arriving and the summer of 2026 will be extremely hot with violent events around the world. This is revealed by the latest forecasts from ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which speak of an ocean temperature increase estimated at at least 2 degrees and literally chaotic values for at least three months. According to experts, the super El Niño will also make 2027 the hottest year on record since records began. All thanks to this weather phenomenon that this summer will record anomalies outside the normal. Simple El Niño predicts a thermal increase of 0.5 degrees above the average, while estimates speak of over 2 degrees, which will bring about the arrival of a mega weather phenomenon.

As reconstructed by Il Resto del Carlino, which heard from Pierluigi Randi, president of Ampro (association of professional meteorologists), El Niño will be very significant and will have very evident effects in Europe. What is worrying is the rise in global temperatures that will result from it.

This is certainly not new: between 2023 and 2024 another weather phenomenon caused record average temperatures with the ocean surface reaching 21 degrees and with violent climatic phenomena around the world.

#SuperElNiño #ECMWF #ElNiño #05degrees #over2degrees #IlRestodelCarlino #PierluigiRandi #Ampro #Europe #21degrees

https://www.iltempo.it/attualita/2026/05/10/news/meteo-estate-2026-quando-prendere-le-ferie-el-nino-temperature-pioggia-caldo-47659364/

European State of the Climate 2025 report published

Warming is reducing #snow and #ice cover, while dangerously high surface air temperatures, #drought, and #heatwaves, as well as record-high #ocean temperatures, are affecting regions across the continent, from the #Arctic to the #Mediterranean. The result is increasing impacts – from record heatwaves over land and at sea, to devastating #wildfires, and accelerating #biodiversity loss – with consequences for #societies and #ecosystems across #Europe.  

The #ESOTC report is produced by the #EU’s #Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by #ECMWF, and the World Meteorological Organization (#WMO), and brings together the work of around 100 scientific contributors.

Report:
https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2025

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/european-state-climate-2025-report-published

El innovador modelo de inteligencia artificial Arches WeatherGen supera a los pronósticos tradicionales del ECMWF utilizando tecnología generativa y una eficiencia computacional sin precedentes.

#Meteorología #ArchesWeatherGen #IA #Pronósticos #ECMWF #Tutiempo

https://www.tutiempo.net/noticias/la-inteligencia-artificial-arches-weathergen-aplasta-a-los-modelos-tradicionales.html

BIG news from #ECMWF: a portable version of our global forecasting model is now open source! Development of #IFS started in 1987 and just a year before entering its 4th decade it is now available to all.

This continues our journey that started a few years ago, when we made a first and growing number of several key model components available.

See the news article for more details: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/openifs-open-source

Code repository: https://github.com/ecmwf-ifs/openifs

#NWP #Weather #OpenSource

Un gemello della Terra per lo studio del clima.
Il gemello digitale della Terra sta per “nascere” e ci aiuterà a navigare l'ignoto del clima. Destination Earth, il gemello digitale del nostro pianeta, è già in grado di simulare gli effetti della crisi climatica. In futuro lo farà in tempo reale, ma è già oggi un alleato fondamentale per ridurre i rischi.

https://scienzamagia.eu/scienza-e-tecnologia/un-gemello-della-terra-per-lo-studio-del-clima/

#DestinationEarth #DestinE #Ecmwf #emergenzeclimatiche #eventiestremi #machinelearning #unioneEuropea

The #rain actually stopped for the afternoon, after at least a week and storm Kristin, leaving me hopeful that the #ECMWF forecast might be a bit of an overestimate.

I got out there and did things. At 12 deg C., it was warm enough for Mme. Wildcat to take an interest (next....)

#climateDiary

#Steady-#Klimacrew

Wie lässt sich das Wetter künftig präziser und zugleich schneller vorhersagen?

Ein neues System für kurzfristige #Wettervorhersagen und langfristige #Klimaprognosen nutzt künstliche Intelligenz, um Ergebnisse zu erzielen, die mit den besten vorhandenen Modellen vergleichbar sind, jedoch deutlich weniger #Rechenleistung benötigen.

https://tino-eberl.de/nutzen-kuenstlicher-intelligenz/effizientere-wettervorhersagen-neuralgcm-kombiniert-physik-ki/

#MIT #Harvard #ECMWF #Wettervorhersage #Klimamodelle #MaschinellesLernen #KINutzen #Retröt