Kalshi and its ilk are a cancer.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/47341610/prediction-market-kalshi-intends-offer-trading-portal

#Sports #Gambling #BettingMarkets #Capitalism

#USA #Politics #presidentialelection2024 #BettingMarkets #Polls: "As of this writing, Polymarket has Trump’s odds of victory at 60% and Harris’ at 40%. Who does Polymarket think will win the popular vote? Its odds have Harris at 66% and Trump at just 34%. Trump’s lead on Polymarket was weird. The site fluctuates daily, but has often kept in line with national polling which shows the election is a toss-up.

The Wall Street Journal may have found the answer. Over the last few weeks, four new accounts on Polymarket have dumped $30 million onto the site. That amount of cash has swung Polymarket’s odds in Trump’s favor. Worse, Arkham Intelligence—a blockchain analysis group whose stated goal is to make crypto less anonymous—told the Journal that the four accounts are probably all the same person."

https://gizmodo.com/30-million-is-all-it-took-to-shift-the-odds-in-trumps-favor-on-polymarket-2000513653

no, betting markets are not magically any better than polls. people gambling real money on results doesn't give them any new insight.

on the other hand, it gives people conflicts of interest when reporting their preferences. and it just makes them more jittery, just like real markets are.

#PoliticalGambling #BettingMarkets

What the heck are the #BettingMarkets factoring in that I haven't heard?

#politics #KamalaHarris