"The logic behind prediction markets is unlike a poll or a pundit. Instead, the bettor has to publicly put money on the line about their expectations and will lose hard cash for being wrong. This should incentivize accuracy, but only if one assumes the money on the line reflects genuine belief rather than privileged access.
Evidence that it may reward privileged access to information is accumulating."
#Polymarket #Kalshi #betting #gambling #futures #InsiderTrading #Trump #Iran #war
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Ashley Splawinski looks at the Kalshi and Polymarket betting markets where people have made money betting on who will be killed next and when, and explains why we're not likely to see much regulation of those markets soon.
There's the fact that Donald Trump Jr. is on Polymarket's advisory board and is a strategic advisor with Kalshi.
#Polymarket #Kalshi #betting #gambling #futures #InsiderTrading #Trump #Iran #war
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https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-polymarket-nobody-knows-how-to
Why I'm betting on ATProto (and why you should, too)

Social media was supposed to connect us, but most of it has turned into ads, division, and loneliness. I'm betting on ATProto as a way to fix that, and not just for developers. Whether you're a scientist, journalist, or just someone who wants the internet to feel human again, I think ATProto matters for you too.

The government will be making a "devil's bargain" if it moves ahead with a recommendation to boost revenue for sport organizations through taxes on sports gambling, former track and field Olympian Bruce Kidd said.
Who Struck It Rich in the Markets When Trump Postponed Bombing Iran?
Missing British EuroMillions winner with huge search for ticket in major town