Fossveil 🇷🇺
nixCraft 🐧The AI bubble is the only thing keeping the US economy together, Deutsche Bank warns: When the bubble bursts, reality will hit far harder than anyone expects https://www.techspot.com/news/109626-ai-bubble-only-thing-keeping-us-economy-together.html
Aaron Longchamps
James H McLaren@nixCraft Wow, this is crazy. A thing that has essentially no practical value is inflating the US economy.
Didier@JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft Didn't we hear exactly the same about the internet? 🤔
Salacious Crumb@ON8SD Yes! And then this thing happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble
@salaciouscrumb Oh well ... I'm gen Y, so I already survived how many crashes? 😂
Ed@ON8SD @salaciouscrumb used to be we had a few people that understood how the great depression came to be and learned to mitigate and soften the blow a bit. As they say the inmates are now running the asylum and are pushing from fiat currency that the government controls to the nebulous world of bitcoin. As congress continues to push laws that remove all controls the USA will no longer be able to control the world markets via the $ leaving it to the multi-nationals to control all the markets by rug-pulls, etc.
Don Marti@JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft This is Deutsche Bank, though, the same people who kept lending to their worst borrower even after he defaulted on 100s of millions of previous loans. In fact, the AI bubble pop will be a boost for the economy as experienced by most people—AI investments create remarkably few jobs, and have been crowding out other uses of capital that would have resulted in more hiring
https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-inc-podcast-deutsche-bank-donald-trump
Why Did Deutsche Bank Keep Lending to Donald Trump? — “Trump, Inc.” Podcast
The bank kept writing checks even after Trump defaulted on loans worth hundreds of millions and sued it. Now Congressional investigators are going to court to uncover the financial records behind their relationship.
PeachMcD@dmarti @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft
I want you to be 💯 correct! 🙏🏽🙏🏽
MissConstrue@JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft if you look at the Shiller PE/10 we are headed for another crash like the dot com and 08 housing bubble
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
I wonder how much it’s gonna cost the taxpayer to bail out the billionaires this time.
Xenofact (he/him)
@MissConstrue @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft my take as well, maybe worse as so much is vapor. I dont think well see depression per se. But as the pain wont be evenly distibuted for many it wint ve any different.
@RevXenoFact @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft
I don't think we're looking at 1929...because I think it might be worse.
In 1929, a lot of families had gardens. Backyard chickens were not uncommon. There were local farms in every region that supported agriculture. There were local dairies in most regions.
What stopped large scale famine from happening was that we had an internal food production system that was localized.
We do not have that now. With TrumpTax (tm) tariffs, food is a significant cost for most Americans. Some economists are putting it at near 30% of income for poverty level earners.
If we have a major crash, there will be widespread hunger and we have no policies in place to manage that, now that they burned all the usaid food and dismantled the agency.
This country is already on the tipping edge of falling into serious chaos, an economic crash will push it over.
I just hope Bob returns in time for me to leave. ;)
crumbletiltskin@MissConstrue @RevXenoFact @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft Grow your own food. Get your neighbours to grow food, your street, your suburb.
@crumbletiltskin @RevXenoFact @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft
We just demolished our in ground pool, rather than spend 10x the cost to fix it, and reconfigured our irrigation, we’re prepping for a full acre of stuff in the spring plant, but I don’t know that we can grow much this year before the annual icepocolypse.
We just demolished our in ground pool, rather than spend 10x the cost to fix it, and reconfigured our irrigation, we’re prepping for a full acre of stuff in the spring plant, but I don’t know that we can grow much this year before the annual icepocolypse.
Jack Linke 🦄
Crunchy@jack @MissConstrue @RevXenoFact @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft Just like how in The Grapes of Wrath everyone just ate all the extra food the farms had!
@crunchy @jack @RevXenoFact @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft My great aunt was a child in the dustbowl. In her 90s, she was still twitchy about not having three months pantry stored.
David Pollak@JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft @hacks4pancakes also keep in mind that folks are using margin back by NVIDIA to buy crypto. The unwinding is going to be worse than 2008
Private F. Seale@JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft
AI has huge value. It's good enough to replace a lot of low skilled office labor. It's already replaced huge swaths of content creation. While today it is not good enough to replace skilled workers, it is good enough to seriously delay hiring. It's going to push junior programmer salaries down, way down. Or move them to cheaper countries. Your kids are going to love #ai generated music, art, and video.
AI has huge value. It's good enough to replace a lot of low skilled office labor. It's already replaced huge swaths of content creation. While today it is not good enough to replace skilled workers, it is good enough to seriously delay hiring. It's going to push junior programmer salaries down, way down. Or move them to cheaper countries. Your kids are going to love #ai generated music, art, and video.
Jeff Atwood@JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft that's just completely absolutely untrue, I'm sorry, but.. https://infosec.exchange/@codinghorror/115279710966598019
Jeff Atwood (@[email protected])
bad news "AI bubble doomers". I've found the LLMs to be *incredibly* useful and reduce the workload (and/or make people much, MUCH more effective at their jobs with the "centaur" model). **Is it overhyped? FUCK Yes.** Salespeople Gotta Always Be Closing. But this is NOTHING like the moronic Segway (I am still bitter about that crap), Cryptocurrency, which is all grifters and gamblers and criminals end-to-end, and the first dot-com bubble where not NEARLY enough people had broadband or even internet access, plus the logistics systems to support shipping products was nowhere REMOTELY where it is today. If you are expecting this "AI bubble" to pop anytime soon, uh.. you might be waiting a bit longer than you think? Overhyped, yes, overbuilding, sure, but not *remotely* a true bubble any any of the same senses of the three examples I listed above 👆. There's something very real, very practical, very useful here, and it is getting better every day. If you find this uncomfortable, I'm sorry, but I know what I know, and I can cite several dozen very specific examples in the last 2-3 weeks where it saved me, or my team, quite a bit of time.
Mike McCaffrey@codinghorror @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft Lol, bookmarking that thread for posterity. Let's see how you feel in 6 months.
@mikemccaffrey @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft I'll take that bet, but the bigger variable is all the OTHER ways the current adminstration is gonna fuck shit up.
George Mitchell@codinghorror @mikemccaffrey @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft It’s the overhyping that’s the problem; when the hype bubble bursts, it’s not just going to take down the no-value “solutions”, it’s also going to crater the actually-valuable propositions because those products aren’t profitable without the hype money coming in.
(My wife was a pre-IPO employee of Amazon; I watched the dot-com collapse in extreme close-up.)
doragasu@nixCraft It's even better, AI is avoiding recession because of the money spent building data centers, not because it generates any value in itself.
Jeremy KahnIt's not the data centers. It's the overvaluation of "AI" stocks that pushes bubble money into pension funds
When that bubble valuation goes away, the idled data centers will be there like the feet of Ozymandias, and the pension funds and 401(k)s will be the barren desert all around
lbcp 🦖 
Charlie Stross
The Incredible Laser@nixCraft on one hand, this is obvious; on the other, when Deutsche Bank says it, I'm immediately sceptical
PassengerYeah this is how I feel too. If Deutsche Bank told me that the sky is blue I would check out the window to make sure.
confettiarenasabotage@Canning1452 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Bank#Controversies
"Deutsche Bank in general as well as specific employees have frequently figured in controversies and allegations of deceitful behavior or illegal transactions […] According to the New Yorker, Deutsche Bank has long had an "abject" reputation […] More than half of all suspicious transactions involving major banks in the FinCEN files leaks involved Deutsche Bank"
they're just the sketchiest
EaterOfSnacks@IncredibleLaser @Canning1452 Didn't they prop up the orange dictator through Russian-underwritten loans at some point, or am I misremembering?
@eaterofsnacks @Canning1452 it's right in the link I posted
@IncredibleLaser @Canning1452 wait, we're supposed to follow links before inventing an opinion? 😁
Knightmare@nixCraft so when that pops, the Great Depression 2.0 starts.
Mariner
Andreas K
JP
Galad
xs4me2It's what you call neoliberal capitalism.
Steal from the poor and let them starve, buy an island, and you won't even notice...
The French Revolution had a solution for it. It was quick and painless...
alcinnz@nixCraft I suspect such a recession has been a long time coming!
It used to be that building faster hardware delivered real value, & the industry organized itself around presuming that "Moore's Law" will continue.
But I don't know if we need faster commodity computers than late-20'00s, early-2010s. Or more energy efficient ones than circa 2020.
My reading indicates that once the industry realizes this it could lead to a major crash!
Alan Hicks@nixCraft I've heard it's about nine months...
Al & Val's Modern Homesteading@nixCraft Just proves my point. AI stands for Artificial Intelligence, but it ALSO stands for "Actual Ignorance".
Doughnut Lollipop 【記録係】
Scotty Trees@nixCraft "I'll believe it when I see it!"
Strefa Linux@nixCraft The AI bubble is still a thing? I though we are already over it... 🙃
acm
Alex Lohr (RIP Natenom)@nixCraft It is only AI in PowerPoint. In Python, it's large models. In truth, it is creative marketing around statistical models tuned to predict the answer.
And the answer is: don't waste so many resources on predicting answers using models that human brains are far better at giving.
The attempt to replace human brains was doomed to begin with for any task that required one in the first place.
XanSteel@nixCraft I know the fall out would be bad, worse even with other countries riding on our economy. But I'll be honest, I want our market to crash and burn so bad that there is absolutely no way they could spin the disaster other than they fucked up.
Do I want to see people hurt by this? No, no not really, but it's likely the only way they are going to learn the lesson that they need to learn.
RRB@nixCraft So, the bank that continued to lend to Trump, after a string of bankruptcies , thinks that the US economy is a bad bet.
Matt Palmer@rrb clearly it's useful to have had plenty of experience with bad bets.
Su_G@Su_G @nixCraft Deutsch Bank has a long history of being involved in everything shady:
https://www.dw.com/en/deutsche-banks-biggest-scandals/a-54979535
Going back to (at least the Third Reich:
https://www.jta.org/archive/german-banks-nazi-past-documented-in-new-book
Some think that they kept funding Trump because of Russian oligarchs using NY real estate for money laundering.
contrasocialWe share the same fate as Trump's casinos. Welcome to "government run like a business" where profit for the CEO is the only goal and your human rights and well-being are a "cost center" to be mitigated.
JdeBP#PeteHoekstra has been saying that part out loud:
Border checks have to be profitable.
"You're all business people. You know what that means."
"Business people" have "hostile takeover" in their vocabulary, too, I note.
@nixCraft GOPs: "Now if we can just get this to happen after mid terms."