35) #DonaldTrump claims to be the best bet against #JoeBidden in #Election2024.
In my view, he’s going to be extremely hard to beat for the #GOP nomination. That said, primary voters are hard core political types and there views tend to be more extreme than most American voters.
Come the general election #Trump, is likely the least electible Republican
37) Increasingly #Election2024 is shaping up as a #JoeBiden vs #DonaldTrump rematch
The #NYT has new polling information on #Biden which shows his numbers improving from tepid levels last year
If #Bidenomics continues to yield improved economic data, he is going to be a hard man to beat despite dissatisfaction and ambivalence over his age
The election will be decided my independents who are increasingly disaffected by #Trump and his legal woes
🔑 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll.html
37) The indictment of #DonaldTrump on charges related to #Jan6, is unsurprising and his been telegraphed for months
What is interesting, is that the charges do not include allegations specific to the organization of violence on Jan 6. That doesn’t mean more charges aren’t forthcoming. I wonder if that case and establishing the chain of evidence is to difficult to make or is simply not there?
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/01/trump-indictment-takeaways-00109309
38) While much of the focus of #Election2024 is focused on #Trump’s legal woes or #Biden’s age, the Us economy has been improving steadily on the back of legislation signed into law during the first two years of #JoeBiden’s administration.
Biden’s polling numbers aren’t great now, but continued economic improvement will yield good results come election time.
39) Things are not going well in the #RonDeSantis campaign.
One wonders whether his call for "throat slitting" directed at members of the Federal Government and invocations of the mystical and mythical Deep State were designed to make seem tougher than #Trump ?
General reaction across the #NewsMedia seems to be one of disgust. There doesn't seem to be major fist bumping going on within the #DeSantis faithful
#Election2023 #RighWing #HardRight
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4135422-desantis-vows-to-start-slitting-throats-on-day-one
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect that Scott Brown is a former senator from Massachusetts. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Sunday said he would “start slitting throats on day one” when it comes to taking on the “deep state.” DeSantis made the remarks at a barbecue campaign event in Rye, N.H.,…
40) Excellent report from #PBSNewsHour on #GOP candidates who have little to say on the extreme heat experienced by many Americans in the South, a geographical base of party support.
While GOP candidates acknowledge that #ClimateChange is real, they’re unwilling to acknowledge the impact of #FossilFuels
Will this be an #Election2024 campaign issue?
The 2024 Republican presidential campaign season is in full swing and candidates are stumping on a host of key issues. But one topic that’s missing from their agenda is climate change. Despite a summer of record-setting heat, new polling shows that Republican voters still don't see a warming planet as a concern. As William Brangham reports, neither do the GOP candidates who want to lead them.
41) Tomorrow is a big day in #Ohio as a special election has been called to decide if amendments to the states constitution require more than a 50% majority vote.
The special election was likely triggered to thwart a Nov election ballot measure which would enshrine #AbortionRights measures in the Ohio constitution. That ballot measure is likely to pass the current 50% threshold
Ohio voters will go to the polls Tuesday to vote on a ballot measure that could raise the threshold for changing the state constitution — and in the process have a direct impact on abortion rights in the battleground state. The measure, known as Issue 1, would raise the threshold for amending the state constitution from…
42) #Ohio voted NO to a #GOP sponsored ballot which would have made it more difficult to amend the state constitution
While Ohio was considered a swing state in the past, it has increasingly been dominated by the GOP who have supermajority control of the state legislature and have passed highly restrictive #abortion legislation
43) I need to start this post by first leading with: #Abortion rights are #HumanRights.
#ReproductiveRights also fall into the same category and will be a major issue in #Election2024.
The #GOP now realize there is no escape from the political trap created by the #SupremeCourt with the #Dobbs decision which overturned #RoeVsWade
The issue will drive #WomenVoters for the foreseeable future. Good article on the issue from @tpm_rss_bot
Republicans are reeling this week, days after Ohio voters handily defeated a ballot initiative widely understood to be a proxy fight for a coming proposal to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution.
@tpm_rss_bot
43) it seems likely that the District Attorney of Fulton County, Fani Willis, will bring charges this week against #DonaldTrump and his associates for the pressure campaign and fake electoral scheme used in an attempt to subvert the 2020 #Georgia presidential results
If so, former President #Trump will be facing 4 criminal indictments as he attempts to reclaim the presidency on #Election2024
The #NYT details the sprawling scheme in Georgia 👇
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/14/us/trump-georgia-election-results.html
44) The quartet of #Trump indictments are now complete. In addition to the former President, 18 additional defendants, many high level former administration officials, are named in the charge.
Finding space in Trump’s 2024 trial calendar will be challenging without regard for his #Election2024 ambitions which represent on off ramp for the candidate should his campaign meet with success
Donald Trump and 18 allies have been indicted in Georgia over efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss in the state. The criminal case announced Monday night is the fourth brought against the ex-president and the second this month to allege that he tried to subvert the results of the vote. The indictment details dozens of acts by Trump and his allies to undo his defeat in the battleground state. Other defendants include former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani and a Trump administration Justice Department official, Jeffrey Clark, who advanced the then-president’s efforts to undo his election loss in Georgia.
45) How will #Election2024 be affected by the #TrumpIndictments?
Politico has published a poll indicating that Americans want a speedy trial, that a slim majority think #Trump is guilty, and that a conviction would damage Trump’s election possibilities
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/25/ipsos-poll-trump-indictment-00112755
46) Today Enrique Tario of the #ProudBoys was sentenced to 22 years for seditious conspiracy for his roll in the attempted #Jan6 coup.
The leadership of both the Proud Boys and the #OathKeepers are now serving significant sentences. Their activities on Jan 6th were triggered by #DoanldTrump.
Will #Trump also be called to account? He is after all the man that lit the fuse? What are the implications for American #Democracy should he too end up with a stiff sentence?
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/05/sentencing-enrique-tarrio-proud-boys-00114095
47) When #DonaldTrump overtly courted the #ProudBoys during the 2016 Presidential Debates
48) Tom Nichols at #TheAtlantic does an excellent job in detailing what is at stake in #Election2024, quite simply #democracy will be on the ballot.
#TheHeritageFoundation has provided a blueprint for another #Trump presidency which is a model for strongman despotism. Should that plan be implemented, there will be no easy recovery in reestablishing the rule of law.
49) Excellent piece on the heavy lift faced by #JoeBiden on switching #Ohio back to the #DemocraticParty column
#Biden identifies as an old style #Democrat who represents the interest of the #WorkingClass. Post #NAFTA, many Ohioans felt abandoned by the Democratic Party and became more receptive to the #GOP. Reversing Ohio voters perception of the Democratic Party as solely interested in the issues of the coastal elites, will be challenging.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/10/ohio-democrats-biden-working-class
50) To the absolute non surprise of anyone following #USPolitics, #KevinMcCarthy gave the green light to an #impeachment inquiry directed against #JoeBiden
In times past, presidential impeachment was reserved for overt misdeeds, think Nixon and the #Watergate break in. Now #GOP politics has degenerated to the point where political payback and #Trump fealty outweighs facts and evidence gathering
#Politics #Biden #HunterBiden #HardRight #FreedomCaucus #RightWing
https://www.npr.org/2023/09/12/1198922531/mccarthy-biden-impeachment-inquiry
51) A great piece on #MittRomney from in #TheAtlantic.
What is most disturbing is the profound isolation of Romney from his senatorial colleagues many who agree with him have opted to place their position and attendant reelection prospects above any sense of fidelity to the US Constitution
There is no honor left in the #GOP. The last honorable man in that caucus, that believed his oath, is walking away from the crumbling remains of the #RepublicanParty
52) #Wisconsin will be one of the battleground statres of #Election2024. The state will also be host to the #GOP convention.
The GOP dominates the state legislature and is attempting to remove a recently elected liberal justice from the state supreme court. Why?
With the election of Justice Protasiewicz, Wisoconsin's Supreme Court now has a liberal majority. That majority will likely redraw the Gerrymandered State and Federal election districts
This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM's home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation. Wisconsin’s April 2023 state Supreme Court election was historic.
53) The #GOP state party has a lot of variables to consider should they opt to use #impeachment in attempting to remove Justice Protasiewic. There is no guiding ethical precedent for such an action
Excellent exchange between Ben Wikler, the #Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair and Josh Marshall of @tpm_rss_bot at the video 🔽 .
The #GOP seems to have found itself under increasing national scrutiny as this drama plays out. More to come!
54) A third party, #Election2024 candidate is a big concern for the #Biden re-election campaign.
What disturbs #Democrats sleep at night is that #NoLabels will put up a plausible #centrist candidate who will draw votes from #JoeBiden
In theory, more choice is better right? Not in America, and right wing #oligarch types understand this, it's why they're playing with the notion, and looking for a political patsy to do their bidding
#Politico has part of the story here:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/30/trump-donor-no-labels-adviser-00113395
55) In a similar vein, to the prior post, #CornelWest's #GreenParty candidacy, poses a threat to #JoeBiden and while I’m an admirer of Professor West, it would be better if he joined forces with #Biden to defeat the existential threat to democracy that is #DonaldTrump
#BernieSanders understands what it is at stake in #Election2024
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/27/sanders-biden-cornel-west-00113123
56) Despair is setting in for the monied types who wanted a nonsense free candidate as an alternative to #DonaldTrump
As #Trump support continues to coalesce in the #GOP primary, oligarch checkbooks are shutting.
There are rumblings that #NikkiHaley might be an alternative but it’s questionable those rumaors will manifest into a gusher of life giving campaign cash.
Politico has the story on the richies’ handwringing 🔽
58) #DonaldTrump and his companies ruled to have engaged in fraud. Specifically #Trump inflated his assets to borrow money from banks
The ruling was accompanied with an order which effectively cancelled the right of #Trump to business in #NewYork
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/26/trump-fraud-trial-inflate-net-worth-00118269
59) With the #UAWStrike almost 2 weeks old, #DonaldTrump went to #Michigan to posture as a supporter of American labor.
What did he do? He held his event in a non-unionized parts plant where he railed against #ElectricVehicles and environmentalists
#Trump does not care about #OrganizedLabor, the #environment and the #EV transition
Trump wants Americans to use 19th century fuel and 20th century tech in the 21st century. The #oilygarchy has no better advocate
60) Tomorrow, the Sunday politics talk shows will be filled with spinning about who blinked first on the threat of a government #Shutdown
Let’s start here, #KevinMcCarthy blinked. #McCarthy understands that shutdowns are bad #politics and have yet to yield a positive result for the #GOP at the ballot box
Assuming the #Senate passes the bill, the next item in the immediate future is whether the #Speaker will face a vote to remove him by the #FreedomCaucus
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/09/30/congress/stopgap-passes-00119280
61) The #GovernmentShutdown is a creation of the #GOP. The #RepublicanParty only becomes interested in #BalancedBudgets when out of, or with limited power.
Inevitably, the GOP’s onset of fiscal rectitude is accompanied by a desire to cut #spending which in turn will be used to reward the donor class with #TaxCuts. There is never any interest on the other side of the budgetary equation, namely raising taxes on the wealthy
This is the only governance idea the GOP has: #TaxCutsForTheRich
62) While a shutdown has been averted with stopgap funding, we get to do this all over again in November.
It is important to frame the chaos properly, shutdowns are a #GOP thing. A casual browse of history tells us that. This is part of a decades long #RepublicanParty effort to convince America that Washington is dysfunctional
So let’s be clear, the GOP is the party of dysfunction. These budget fights are a feature not a flaw in their strategy.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/09/30/congress/senate-votes-averts-shutdown-00119301
63) Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation explains the expense associated with a government #Shutdown threat.
#Buttigieg outlines the consequences of another similar action when the 45-day stopgap funding is used up
It's always a pleasure to listen to #PeteButtigieg who is articulate on the challanges of being in #government. He makes a refreshing diversion from the incoherence of what passes as political discourse on most TV coverage
65) The noose is tightening for #DonaldTrump as some of his co-conspirators start to plea out on their collective effort to subvert the presidential election in #Georgia.
The threat of the presentation of facts in a court of law does wonderful things to concentrate the mind. 😜
With both #Chesebro and #SidneyPowell taking a plea, I expect they will be required to testify to #Trump’s instructions as he attempted to subvert the election
66) Meanwhile over in the #HouseofRepresentatives, #GOP dysfunction is on full display as #JimJordan’s effort to accede to the #SpeakerOfTheHouse implodes
Given the #Republican Party’s dedication to the elimination of government, it’s not a surprise that they can’t implement anything approaching party discipline. The party with each passing month has become profoundly undemocratic
#UsSPolitics #Democracy #HouseSpeaker #houseGOP
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/10/20/congress/jordan-fails-again-00122706
67) For those with a deeper interest in the American political scene, this 3-parter #podcast from @ProPublica and #OnTheMedia, should be required listening.
In the past few years the impact of a multiple decade effort to swing the courts dramatically to the right of public concensus, is obvious to all but the somnolent
The series documents how one man, Leonard Leo, became and is an important player in the radicalization of the judiciary
https://www.propublica.org/article/we-dont-talk-about-leonard-podcast
68) #DonaldTrump and #RudyGiuliani must be feeling increasingly queasy as #JennaEllis, a third #Trump attorney, has now copped a deal rather than face legal jeopardy at the hands of #FaniWillis in #Georgia
It's not a good situation for a defendent when many subbordinated in the decision tree opt to avoid going down with the ship. I supose the big question is whether #Rudy will odp to plea out as well?
#Politico has the details 🔽
69) Meanwhile over in the #House we have the latest candidate for #speaker in the form of #TomEmmer of #Minnesota's 6th district.
There are plenty of cracks in plain sight and hard core #Trumpist types cite Emmer's vote to certify the presidential election on #Jan6 as being problematic.
He is rumored to be too liberal for the #FarRight types who are not appeased by his support for lawsuits which would have nullfied #SwingState votes
#Politics #USPolitics #HouseOfReps
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/10/24/congress/banks-00123253
70) And just like that, #TomEmmer's candidacy ends as he is branded a #RINO by #DonaldTrump.
The chaos will continue, much to the delight of the #HardRight of the #GOP who are uninterested in governing and more engaged by theatrical media appearence.
This is what it means to support #Trump's #Republican Party. It has been remade in his image, increasing populated with chaos monkies
71) The news flow appears to be quickening on multiple fronts, If #Meadows is now testifying against #DonaldTrump, there will be little place for the former president to hide
#USPolitics #Politics #Election2024
https://abcnews.go.com/US/chief-staff-mark-meadows-granted-immunity-tells-special/story?id=104231281
72) Next up in the #HouseSpeaker derby is Mike Johnson from #Louisiana’s 4th. Johnson, a lawyer, ticks the box from a #DonaldTrump fealty POV, having defended the former president during the impeachment trials
The #HardRight will support his opposition to financial support for the #UkraineWar
He is a #ChristianRight #SocialConservative, opposing #GayMarriage, #Abortion etc
#USPolitics #SpeakerOfTheHouse #Speaker #GOP
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/10/24/congress/next-up-mike-johnson-00123404
73) One drama has ended with the election of Mike Johnson. The question is whether he will be able to manage his fractious caucus and legislate
Where will Johnson stand on the #Ukraine War funding effort? Initially he was supportive of the war, now like make of his party, he is making reluctance noises. Will things change now that he has the #Speaker's gavel?
#Politics #USPolitics #HouseofReps #Congress
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/10/25/congress/johnson-takes-it-00123512
@mnutty well, the reluctance seems to be wanting more information about how the support is being managed, not the support itself.
A lot of Republicans are concerned that there isn’t enough effective support. They are in favor of support, just not what they see as ineffective support.
This is a very critical distinction.
Frankly I think a lot of this concern is performative posturing or in some more sinister cases sabotage directed at Western democray
We have a number of #Trumpism adherents who are willing to do #Putin’s bidding. Why this seeming adoration of #autocracy? I’m mystified by it
@mnutty I don’t know how you go from “We shouldn’t hand the administration this power to spend” to adoration of autocracy.
If they adored autocracy they would be stumbling over themselves to give the autocrat such spending power.
Pretty easy their willingness to follow #DonaldTrump in lock step, and the all to frequent admiration of things #Putin
I disagree. Fealty to #DonaldTrump was a requirement the #speakership. Last time I checked, #Trump was the most autocratic politician to reside in The White House. Should he regain that position, the United States will be in deep danger of surrendering it’s Democracy. Apparently #Jan6 was not enough to convince the #GOP otherwise. Trump is well known for his embrace of #Putin and other autocrats they are aspirational figures for him and those that follow
@mnutty you’re simply, factually, wrong.
The House was perfectly free to elect a Speaker who didn’t show fealty to Trump. Democrats, who I’m sure we can agree don’t show that, decided to back the Republican nutjobs, but if they hadn’t done that a moderate Speaker could have been elected.
Those voting patterns themselves disprove your claim here.
As for the hysterical claims about the future of democracy in the US, realize that it’s not a call the president has the authority to make.
The parties making both claims rely on Americans’ civic ignorance to promote their own interests. Americans more familiar with the rules and ways of the US government know those lines don’t hold water.
That would be entirely true assuming politician in question abides by the law.
#Jan6 showed us that #DonaldTrump has little regard for the law. There are more of his type that are willing to stand in the way of the law.
The threat is there, democracies get overturned, excluding the possibility, past history tells us it is plausible
@mnutty again, you have your facts backwards.
If anything Jan 6th just emphasized that it doesn’t matter what politicians think, the law prevails, and no matter how much someone like Trump might dislike it, we don’t let them decide whether or not the law will prevail.
It’s not up to a criminal as to whether the law prevails. It does.
Provided there is the political will to in-force the law and that it has not been comprised through political pressure. The ultimate test of the law will require the conviction of #DonaldTrump
@mnutty Well no, since the law provides for prosecutorial discretion that would let Trump or anybody else go free even if they are guilty, which it’s a tall order to say Trump is.
As per the law Donald Trump does not have to be convicted.
It goes against the law to say that his conviction is required.
Again, it’s another thing you have backwards.
Indeed the Justice department has a great deal of independence. To say that is totally removed from political pressure is naive in the extreme. That is why thoughtful folks are concerned of a return to office by Trump. His autocratic tendencies would bulldoze any kind of arms length distance between justice and the executive
Then I guess you like think Trump is given to autocratic behavior?
@mnutty the justice department is part of the executive branch and so it is completely dependent on the president.
And it’s a good thing that we don’t let the federal investigators just run wild across the country!
I absolutely wouldn’t say that the justice department is totally removed from the political pressure. I would say that political pressure 100% controls the justice department since the justice department is 100% under the auspices of who we elect.
As the justice department decides who to prosecute and who to let off the hook, these are political questions up to the people that we elect, and we need to hold the people we elect accountable for those decisions.
Thoughtful? Reasonable? Well it’s up to us voters to vote for or against the people who set the policies, as at the end of the day the people we vote for get to set the rules.
I sure wish we would stop footing for idiots.
You seem to conveniently ignore the norms that enable our country to run and allow the justice department to operate to a great degree independently of political pressure. The president does get to appoint the AG, norms of presidential behavior expect the executive to maintain distance from investigations. Legally Justice operates under the executive. In a healthy political environment it operates with a significant degree of independence.
@mnutty Oh no, you’re completely wrong. The justice department is an executive agency operating under presidential authority, and that is critical because if the federal police were allowed to operate with impunity, without any oversight, we would all be in big trouble.
So the justice department is absolutely part of the executive branch and the president is absolutely responsible for everything it does.
Anytime anybody talks about the justice department being separate, they are effectively talking about a police state without accountability since the connection to the president is the one route of accountability that it has.
We need to emphatically emphasize that the police are accountable. We should not falsely say that it’s on its own course like that.
This is very core to the American system of government, The restraint of authority at the core of the US system.
The problem with that statement is that it fails to recognize the norms of government
Justice is expected to operate virtually independently of political influence. Only on extreme circumstances should the President step in. That’s a healthy check
When you have an autocrat like Trump, he wants to weaponize Justice for political purposes. This is where norms are important and autocrats are dangerous
Dude I get things so backwards all the time, according to you, I wonder why you bother reading anything I write
As to #Jan6 and what politicians think. It’s simplistic to say what politicians think is irrelevant, they are 1/3 of the government, they could have prevented #Trump from returning to office they didn’t
We also know politicians can influence and intimidate the judicial process, to think otherwise is naive
@mnutty Oh the platform presents it to me. I don’t search it out.
But a lot of people get the same things backwards because a lot of people are getting their information from the same misleading sources, so I think it’s worth countering those narratives.
Well, as worthy as anything can be on social media.
Are you saying Trump is in office, he wasn’t prevented from returning to office?
As you know, Trump doesn’t have to be in office for him to return to office. Maybe I have that backwards?
@mnutty you said they didn’t prevent Trump from returning to office.
So he’s in?
Correct, because if the #Trump impeachment process for #Jan6 had resulted with a conviction in the Senate, #Trump would no longer have the possibility of being elected next year.
I did not say that Trump is in office, I do have a pulse. Prevention of taking office, is the not the same as being in office is it? Maybe I have that backwards as well? But I think it’s pretty self evident
@mnutty but again you have that wrong.
You can be elected after being impeached.
A lot of people misunderstand how impeachment works and what the Constitution says about it, but in general, the Constitution respects the democratic process, and this is no exception, if the people want to they can elect even an impeached person.
Voters have that power.
The point of the 2nd impeachment was to remove the possibility that Trump could serve again. Had impeachment succeeded it would have been followed by a disbarment vote. Likely all of this would have been tested in the courts.
Again I note that Trump is not serving as President. Your punctilious logic fails to acknowledge when you are incorrect, is that not so?
I also note that impeachment is not the same as conviction. Impeachment is the act of accusation. How could you get such a simple fact wrong? Surely everyone understands that at this point?
@mnutty what are you talking about?
Nothing in your reply contradicts what I said. So I don’t know what you are asking. You seem to be agreeing with me.
Here’s the point with that exchange. Language is loose. I understood what you meant, but chose to point out that you used the term incorrectly
The law is made up of language , while you might like to think it is binary, it is not. There are shades of meanings and unexplored interpretations for autocratic types which can be exploited in unexpected ways. We can spend our time arguing about minutiae or focus on the clear and present danger that is the GOP
@mnutty but I didn’t use the term wrong. I am 100% on board with your definition.
The Constitution provides that voters still have the power to elect Trump regardless of whether he was impeached and/or convicted.
The difference between impeachment and conviction has no bearing to that issue.
We can elect a person who has been impeached, and we can elect a person who has been convicted.
Yes we can spend our time arguing about minutiae but I don’t see the point in it. And I’d rather not.
Yup but apparently you cannot elect a person who has been disbarred which would have been the next step following a successful impeachment conviction .
Of course that never happened given the #GOP’s spineless willingness to kiss #DonaldTrump’s ring in the aftermath of #Jan6
@mnutty you absolutely can.
That’s democracy for you.
Martin Nutty
volkris