There's lots of hype about the Fediverse, and I'm getting kind of leery.
Hype can be good, but it can also be bad.
There was hype for the Steam Deck. It was good.
There was hype for NFTs. It was bad.
Yes, I believe the Fediverse is the future of social media, as well as the web. But this is not a sprint, it's a marathon.
Lots of things need to be built. Projects require more funding. Design decisions need to be considered with empathy, not with "move fast and break things."
I'm thinking about hype because I'm seeing a lot of business-y types talking about the Fediverse.
A few months ago, I mentioned that investor types have the Fediverse on their radar. They're not actively dropping millions into Fediverse startups, but it's definitely on their radar.
Most of us have high and lofty ideals. But there's sharks who are eyeing the Fediverse and thinking, "Ah, another opportunity for disruption."
Keep that strongly in mind when the buzzwords start flowing.
Some folks might be thinking, "You're just being anti-business! How are Fediverse developers supposed to be paid?"
As it happens, I run a business. I build software. I very much talk about the need for developers to make a sustainable living.
And I've indeed talked about how to best monetize the Fediverse.
Here's where I say the quiet part out loud: the Fediverse is already being monetized.
Mastodon accepts donation. Masto.host charges for hosting. A few devs are hired for theming.
Usually when a slick-haired moccasin-sans-socks-wearing business bro with an MBA talks about "disruption," he's really talking about preserving the status quo for web service monetization: ads and SaaS.
That's pretty much what they're trying to bring to the table. This time, I predict the proposals will be, "How to apply ad and SaaS models to the Fediverse."
But maybe instead of preserving old models, we should think about something different.
Perhaps Silicon Valley should sit this one out.
During the next year, I already know what articles will be written about the Fediverse:
1. Why are the Fediverse and Mastodon Trending?
2. The Complete Guide to the Fediverse
3. Why More People Are Choosing Mastodon Over Legacy Social Media Sites
This kind of content pops up whenever something tech-related gains traction. Hype already writes itself.
The Fediverse is officially part of the tech hype cycle, and the tech hype cycle follows patterns.
Regarding hype, the Fediverse has disrupted the typical cycle in one regard: the so-called "important" people haven't been given exclusive access in advance.
When you look at typical hype cycles, that's usually the first part of the playbook.
Facebook was first exclusively launched to ivy league schools. Google Glass was only available to the technorati -- handpicked by Google. Clubhouse was first only available to "influencers".
The Fediverse is available to everyone -- from the beginning.
It's funny -- the rise of the Fediverse has caught the cultural gatekeepers with their pants down.
They hate not being part of the advanced hype cycle, so they're *really* leaning into, "Mastodon is just the social media equivalent of Desktop Linux".
Sounds clever. But desktop Linux has been popular for well over a decade. It's called ChromeOS.
So even with that critique, they're tone deaf about the current reality of desktops.
It's interesting to see how business grifters have already tried to exploit the Fediverse: by rebranding open source software as their own, then defederating from the broader network.
This is because business-y types are too in love with the notion of walled gardens.
They don't see federation as a killer feature. They see it as an obstacle for building a walled garden.
To wit—don't fight your enemy while he's in the middle of making a mistake.
One good thing about the Fediverse's current moment in the hype cycle is that business types, technorati, and cultural gatekepers don't understand federation.
They just have no idea why it should exist. It runs so counter to Silicon Valley narratives, that it pains them to think about it.
What even is federation?
Why would anyone want to do it?
Hey! Kid with a skateboard—do you even know what's going on?
Let them be confused.
@atomicpoet "They don't see federation as a killer feature. They see it as an obstacle for building a walled garden." --- walled gardens gives them that control that they want and need in order to make money. They have absolutely no idea how to give something to everyone, not control it, and make money.
I'll make another prediction those not liking Federation are going to start throwing around 'Communism' and/or socialism because those are scary a buzzwords, and mean anti-business or money.
Oh wow, yeah all of what Chris just said! 🔥 ❤️
@dhfir They're trying to imply that desktop Linux has never gone mainstream.
But how mainstream are desktops right now? And as far as desktops are concerned, Linux is pretty popular.
Basically, this is the blue check version of alluding to Star Wars Kid so you can prove you're hip to the Internet.
@atomicpoet this is a very good point. what would the articles we would be OK with reading?
1. Skills you need to be hired by #hosting sites.
2. How to reach the smallest #nodes
@gwilymgj The most important thing is to build more instances. Build more services. Find more creative ways to utilize ActivityPub.
Oh yeah, and don't let spammers spam.
@gwilymgj @atomicpoet Do the thing that wasn't done with email: Make it as easy and seamless as possible to run your own instance.
Easiest way would be to have instances that integrate into an app and run on your phone in the background, quietly communicating away. Big problem with that is a.) phone architecture and b.) network architecture.
I can't think of how to fix a.) yet... but part b.) has a fix in the wings, IPv6.
@gwilymgj @atomicpoet I don't really see that as a huge problem *as long as* federation remains important enough that major players don't feel comfortable turning it off. It's fine if big player arrive. Even commercial players.
Even if at some point in the future *most* users are on those kind of instances at some point, as long as federation remains necessary to the big player, it acts as a safety valve.
@alanbell @atomicpoet
Or #outlook #gmail #apple like fediverse that blocks everything that is not the top 5 fedirated systems so you cannot self host like it is happening with #email and #xmpp
Is there a rule in the #fediverse that does not allow a server to grow past a certain size to avoid it taking over? E.g. what would happen if #elon_musk suddenly adds #twitter to the fediverse? Would it just suck up everybody else just out of convenience? And then proceed to block lesser known servers?
@atomicpoet we'll see what happens once this latest wave slows down. Traditionally only a small fraction of new users stay, and every new wave increases the user count in a manageable manner.
What I'm actually more worried about is if a wave (this, or a subsequent one) doesn't slow down. The Fediverse is not built to handle explosive growth. It needs to have time to absorb increased activity.
@atomicpoet Well I’m not a supporter of the idea that anything interesting should (or will) become the norm — the not run but marathon thing.
It will surely still fluctuate quite a bit, probably growing thanks to Elon Musk a bit more, probably followed by a little drop after the hype etc. But other conceptions of how platforms should will and should continue to coexist imo
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