Paul Beckwith, a climate science educator, goes through James Hansen's recent warnings about a coming "Super El Niño".

This video (24:48) assumes a small amount of background in math and science, enough to read time/temperature graphs, but is generally quite accessible in its explanations. He walks through a lot of good stuff like how the El Niño / La Niña cycle works, what some of the "forcings" are that are driving some of these things, why things like aerosols matter, what different models show, what the consensus predictions have been and why Hansen's predicting something substantively stronger.

It's a pretty worrisome set of things, but Hansen has been an important voice in the climate conversation, and I think Beckwith's presentation is pretty level—trying to just walk through the information dispassionately in a way that can help you understand the science part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP3VQk3mIgQ

Note: Notwithstanding the use of em dash, this post was written by a human.

#climate #ElNiño #ElNino #SuperElNiño #SuperElNino #ClimateModels #ClimateModeling #warming #heat #GlobalWarming #aerosol #aerosols #OceanWarming #ClimateSensitivity #ClimateScience #science #co2 #IPCC #forcing #Greenhouse #JamesHansen #PaulBeckwith #video #YouTube

The growth of #RhododendronAureum and its precipitation sensitivity are more influenced by #Elevation, co-regulated by #SoilProperties and plant size traits in alpine tundra; Soil conditions and leaf economic traits influence temperature sensitivity.

#ClimateChange | #DwarfEvergreenShrubs | #ClimateSensitivity | #PlantFunctionalTraits

https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtaf181

【🎉Latest accepted article】
#Elevation gradient modulates the effects of herbaceous encroachment on the long-term growth trends and #ClimateSensitivity of Rhododendron aureum in alpine tun

#ClimateChange | #DwarfEvergreenShrubs | #SoilProperties | #PlantFunctionalTraits

https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtaf181

🚨 New publication!
🎓Our IMPRS-ESM doctoral candidate Doseok Lee just published his first paper in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science together with Hanjun Kim and #MPIM Director Sarah Kang.

💧☁️ Enhanced clear-sky shortwave absorption by water vapor accelerates #AMOC recovery 🌊 → higher long-term #ClimateSensitivity.

👉 Read here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01169-8
#ClimateScience #IMPRS_ESM #PhDLife

What is Past is Prologue:
#Paleoclimate constraints on #ECS Equilibrium #ClimateSensitivity #GreenhouseGas sensitivity of Earth's #Climate

First of 3 papers this summer.

My career trajectory has been building towards using past climate archives to narrow the possibilities of future climate. But it is HARD. And computationally expensive.

The next two papers of this project will rule out some high and low sensitivity simulations using Past Climate (Proxy) archives and Data Assimilation. Those should be out in preprint in the next couple of months.

We hope this project (first to constrain earth climate sensitivity using coupled atmosphere-ocean earth system models) will be streamlined in the future and applied widely.

https://essopenarchive.org/users/921675/articles/1297441-on-the-sensitivity-of-climate-sensitivity-in-a-coupled-climate-model

The third possible cause is cause for concern:

"If the cloud-related albedo decline was caused not solely by internal variability, the 2023 extra heat may be here to stay and Earth’s climate sensitivity may be closer to the upper range of current estimates."

#ClimateSensitivity
#EarthAlbedo

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/12/new-study-blames-recent-spike-in-global-warming-on-lack-of-low-clouds/

The climate of the world of #GameOfThrones
https://scholar.google.de/scholar?cluster=11346321411393038083&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5
by Samwell #Tarly 2017.
Already has 4 citations too. And openaccess!
Complete with many model output maps and acknowledgments: Gilly, who did all the lit search in the Citadel's library but wouldn't be co-author "in a jounal edited by kneelers". 😁
Screenshots show seasonal temperature, precip, hPa and wind,
and the other one is a modelled map with #climate sensitivity of 2.1C

Scholar-google knows of 2 PDF versions, one "is in some form of Elvish, I can't read".
#paleoclimate #climatesensitivity #GoT #SamwellTarly

#climate #climatesensitivity

CO₂ puts heavier stamp on temperature than previously thought, analysis suggests
https://phys.org/news/2024-06-heavier-temperature-previously-thought-analysis.html