RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest12h agoPAGASA: El Niño has 79% chance of emerging within months
https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://www.rappler.com/philippines/weather/pagasa-el-nino-alert-april-2026/
A “super El Niño” could take shape as early as June, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada
https://montreal.citynews.ca/2026/04/22/super-elnino-june-extreme-weather-southern-quebec/
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Un « super El Niño » pourrait prendre forme dès juin, selon Environnement et Changements climatiques Canada
// Article en anglais //
A “super El Niño” could take shape as early as June, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), potentially driving unusual and extreme weather patterns across the globe. El Niño refers to a climate phenomenon in which surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than normal. This warming disrupts […]
Global sea surface temperature, sst?
Preliminary data says, Friday was an all-time record high, surpassing even bananas El Nino year 2024.
But we're in a receding La Nina year. So the image below puts 2026 side by side with 2023.
Plus 2016 as the year with the than-highest "normal" sst.
The #Pacific today looks more like an intensified version of the El Nino year 2016 than like 2023. The North #Atlantic too.
The South Atlantic sst anomaly is one huge warm blob this year. I find this is doubly concerning because the air temperature anomaly there is neutral or cooler… https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/daily_maps/?dm_id=world-wt&wm_id=t2anom&year=2026
Terhaar et al 2025 ran two simulation experiments to look whether a jump year-on-year of 0.25C can be repeated by "our" climate models. The experiment with 11,000 model years finds 11 occurrences. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08674-z
So while very rare, and virtually impossible without #ClimateChange , the jump of 0.25C year-on-year is physically plausible for the models.
That's good. They have all the formula magic needed to simulate freak outliers.
In all instances, the bananas sst reverts back to the previous normal by the next September.
In reality, by October 2025, sst did fall back to the previous normal+climatechange of 2016.
So the bananas years were a freak outlier.
However.
2026 is repeating it.
If the super El Nino year 2016 is still our "normal", we're seeing a jump of over 0.3C now.
Terhaar posted a thread about their paper and he covers this eventuality of sst not reverting back to normal with:
"we expect SSTs to return to pre-jump levels by September 2025. If this is not the case, climate sensitivity might be higher than thought." https://skywriter.blue/@polarocean.bsky.social/3lk6xxs5dm22q
Queda poco para la llegada del "Fenómeno de El Niño". Uno que según los expertos, este 2026 podría traer consigo, eventos climáticos más extremos de lo usual. Incluso, tiene su propio apodo: GODZILLA, con la amenaza de desatar impactos extremos en todo el mundo. Incluido Chile.
Onda de calor atinge do RS ao MS até sábado (25) trazendo alertas para saúde da população
#Çin Meteoroloji İdaresi, ulusal iklim merkezinin yaz ve sonbaharda orta ya da daha güçlü bir #ElNiño beklediğini ve bunun #enerji ile #yakıt arzında sıkıntı yaratabileceğini duyurdu #SonDakika
#FYI #HerbSimmens #ClimateEmergencyForum #PaulBeckwith #ENSO #ElNino #superElNino
"...even a “moderate” El Niño has already pushed global temperatures above 1.5°C"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo2eSm_PF1w
#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis
Edwin G. 
anlomedad
Jonny Axelsson
Schauinsland
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Brasil de Fato
Çevre Hattı
Ivi Choc
Ivi Choc