What difference does it make in 2050 whether it's 1.5 or 2C?
I often forget what the bland line charts we see regarding global heating actually mean.
A cool video abstract shows the impacts and the differences https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf45 , by Byers et al 2018.
The tables in chapter 3 IPCC SpecialReport1.5 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
are based on their analysis. Those show number of people in 2050 exposed to and exposed&vulnerable to multiple climate threats on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP.
We're on SSP3, meaning no international solidarity, high poverty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways#SSP3:_Regional_rivalry_(A_Rocky_Road)
And "vulnerable" is defined as living on less than 10 US$ a day.
For example, table 3.4 states the impacts to crop yield change from 1.5C versus 2C, on a kind SSP1 versus unkind SSP3 in year 2050:
1.5C exposed to threat
kind SSP1: 32mio
unkind: 36mio
2C exposed to threat
kind : 330mio
unkind: 396
1.5C exposed and vulnerable to threat in millions of people:
kind : 2
unkind: 20
2C exposed and vulnerable to threat:
kind : 24
unkind: 178
Or look at table 3.53:
number of people exposed to water scarcity in 2050 on a 2C pathway increases 100% compared to 1.5C. Regions impacted particularly highly:
Europe, Australia, Southern Africa.
The species range loss "doubles or triples" from 1.5C to 2C. Regions impacted particularly highly:
Europe, Amazon, Southern Africa.
Solidarity is key in holding together the fabric of our complex tech civilisation under climate stress.
#ClimateChange #UNSDG