Donald Roy
@djr2024
- 95 Followers
- 20 Following
- 2.5K Posts
Traditional #labour man - fifty plus years a party member and #union member -resident #putney - within #wandsworth - #economist - #internationalist and #traveller - aspiring #novelist
To sum up the lower voter turnout customary in local elections in #england will tend to flatter #reformUK and overestimate its likely performance in a future #generalElection while doing the reverse to the #greens . And of course weather conditions on Thursday 7th May could also affect turnout significantly. Presumably #farage ' s more devout supporters will be praying for rain!😀
Historically #Conservatives did better than #labour among #postalvoters - reflecting a mixture of age profile and more professional local organisation. However the two seem to have converged lately - due to #labour catching up to some extent and to former #conservative #postalvoters switching to #reformUK - a bit ironic since #reformUk has tended to decry #postalvoting - presumably in deference to its mentors in the #us !
Historically #Conservatives did better than #labour among #postalvoters - reflecting a mixture of age profile and more professional local organisation. However the two seem to have converged lately - due to #labour catching up to some extent and to former #conservative #postalvoters switching to #reformUK - a bit ironic since #reformUk has tended to decry #postalvoting - presumably in deference to its mentors in the #us !
Voter turnout among #postalvoters tends not to vary much between elections while turnout among 'on the day' voters does. This would not matter if both types of voter were evenly distributed among all five parties. I found evidence that in #putney at least they were not in 2024 - I am not aware of this appearing in any wider studies thus far. Two of the five parties were outliers - the #greens and #reformuk . #Reformuk had a higher proportion of #postalvoters and the #greens a lower one.
Andy Dearden@djr2024 would that difference be explainable in terms of the age profiles of their supporters? - thoough the data would be less reliable.
Voter turnout among #postalvoters tends not to vary much between elections while turnout among 'on the day' voters does. This would not matter if both types of voter were evenly distributed among all five parties. I found evidence that in #putney at least they were not in 2024 - I am not aware of this appearing in any wider studies thus far. Two of the five parties were outliers - the #greens and #reformuk . #Reformuk had a higher proportion of #postalvoters and the #greens a lower one.
There are likely to be two effects limiting comparability in #england between #local and #national elections. The first is 'ticket splitting' and the second variation in voter turnout. Evidence of 'ticket splitting' can be found when both types of election occur on the same day. In #wandsworth in 2010 #conservatives polled better against #labour in the local election than in the #generalelection ; these were held on the same day. Voter turnout tends to be lower in local elections.
There are likely to be two effects limiting comparability in #england between #local and #national elections. The first is 'ticket splitting' and the second variation in voter turnout. Evidence of 'ticket splitting' can be found when both types of election occur on the same day. In #wandsworth in 2010 #conservatives polled better against #labour in the local election than in the #generalelection ; these were held on the same day. Voter turnout tends to be lower in local elections.
The election to the #senedd in #wales will be fully proportional and thus will provide at best a weak indication of future voting at a #generalelection - the top up system in #scotland - similar to that for the #bundestag in #germany - will be rather more informative. In #england , however, with the exception of #mayoral elections - where the supplementary vote has been restored - elections will be on the traditional 'first past the post' system so comparable to a #generalElection .
The election to the #senedd in #wales will be fully proportional and thus will provide at best a weak indication of future voting at a #generalelection - the top up system in #scotland - similar to that for the #bundestag in #germany - will be rather more informative. In #england , however, with the exception of #mayoral elections - where the supplementary vote has been restored - elections will be on the traditional 'first past the post' system so comparable to a #generalElection .