Mastodawn

The world of the Tangerine Tyrant:

The war on Iran has halted, meaning he doesn't need to seek Congressional approval (at 60 days after it s start);

The war will continue, until Iran has 'paid the price' for its past wrong doing;

The war has raised oil prices, but he is blocking all on-shore wind farm projects citing 'national security' concerns;

He thinks he is the most powerful leader in the world, but is destroying the 'soft power' US domination has been built on for decades.

#politics

Donald Roy Apr 24

Claire McNab Apr 24

Banx in the #FT #FinancialTimes

#Starmer #Mandelson #ukpol

Donald Roy Apr 23

NewsThump Apr 23

England has fallen. This country has gone to the dogs, etc., etc., and so on...

Donald Roy Apr 23

Emeritus Prof Christopher May Apr 22

It increasingly looks like the UK is about to have a PM without moral authority & unable to coral MPs into supporting his (and party's) legislative agenda (such as it is) while remaining in post because no-one seems willing to challenge for the party leadership in the current circumstances...

I'm not sure whether its a good advert for democracy (because he *is* being held to account despite scapegoating others), or a bad one (as the mechanisms of governance are clogged up)?

#politics #UK

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Donald Roy Apr 18

To sum up the lower voter turnout customary in local elections in #england will tend to flatter #reformUK and overestimate its likely performance in a future #generalElection while doing the reverse to the #greens . And of course weather conditions on Thursday 7th May could also affect turnout significantly. Presumably #farage ' s more devout supporters will be praying for rain!😀

Donald Roy Apr 18

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Donald Roy Apr 18

Historically #Conservatives did better than #labour among #postalvoters - reflecting a mixture of age profile and more professional local organisation. However the two seem to have converged lately - due to #labour catching up to some extent and to former #conservative #postalvoters switching to #reformUK - a bit ironic since #reformUk has tended to decry #postalvoting - presumably in deference to its mentors in the #us !

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Donald Roy Apr 18

Historically #Conservatives did better than #labour among #postalvoters - reflecting a mixture of age profile and more professional local organisation. However the two seem to have converged lately - due to #labour catching up to some extent and to former #conservative #postalvoters switching to #reformUK - a bit ironic since #reformUk has tended to decry #postalvoting - presumably in deference to its mentors in the #us !

Donald Roy Apr 18

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Donald Roy Apr 18

Voter turnout among #postalvoters tends not to vary much between elections while turnout among 'on the day' voters does. This would not matter if both types of voter were evenly distributed among all five parties. I found evidence that in #putney at least they were not in 2024 - I am not aware of this appearing in any wider studies thus far. Two of the five parties were outliers - the #greens and #reformuk . #Reformuk had a higher proportion of #postalvoters and the #greens a lower one.

Donald Roy Apr 18

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Andy Dearden Apr 18

@djr2024 would that difference be explainable in terms of the age profiles of their supporters? - thoough the data would be less reliable.

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Donald Roy Apr 18

Voter turnout among #postalvoters tends not to vary much between elections while turnout among 'on the day' voters does. This would not matter if both types of voter were evenly distributed among all five parties. I found evidence that in #putney at least they were not in 2024 - I am not aware of this appearing in any wider studies thus far. Two of the five parties were outliers - the #greens and #reformuk . #Reformuk had a higher proportion of #postalvoters and the #greens a lower one.