How many tickets will your team ship in 4 weeks?

Without estimates. Without story points. Without planning poker.

Just run a Monte Carlo simulation on your actual delivery history.

95% confidence → 10 tickets. 50% confidence → 24.

That's it. That's the forecast.

https://cylenivo.org/

#Agile #NoEstimates #Kanban #Scrum #FlowMetrics

17% of tickets have rework.

Average extra cost: 3 days per affected ticket.

Top pattern: "In Review → In Progress": 23 times.

Nobody was tracking it, now you can.

Cylenivo: flow metrics from your Jira export. Local and Open Source.

https://cylenivo.org/

#Agile #FlowMetrics #Kanban #Scrum #CycleTime #NoEstimates

This article illustrates a classic problem with the common use of #velocity as a metric.

https://betterteams.fm/articles/2019/06/Velocity-Escape-this-Pitfall/

#noestimates #escapevelocity

„How I estimate work as a staff software engineer“

https://www.seangoedecke.com/how-i-estimate-work/

»When I estimate, I extract the range my manager is looking for, and only then do I go through the code and figure out what can be done in that time. I never come back with a flat “two weeks” figure. Instead, I come back with a range of possibilities, each with their own risks, and let my manager make that tradeoff.«

Good article about estimating software projects or changes in software projects.

#NoEstimates

Estimation. The year starts with a conversation on why two people asked to estimate the same thing of testing come up with two entirely different estimates.

I was working with #NoEstimates so long that this "know how much you plan on invoicing us" is sometimes exhausting, especially when my personal metrics show that that portion of work I do before I am allowed to do the work is 32 to 39.

This article illustrates a classic problem with the common use of #velocity as a metric.

https://betterteams.fm/articles/2019/06/Velocity-Escape-this-Pitfall/

#noestimates #escapevelocity